Are we in a good place?...
by Andrew Feinstein on Sep 27, 2009 8:34 PM MDT
in Denver Nuggets: News and Opinion
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With training camp commencing this weekend and the 2009-10 NBA season opener just around the corner, I find myself conflicted on the state of our Nuggets.
On the one hand, I remain grateful for the exceptionally exciting season we had in 2008-09 (note my "Have a long memory..." column written after the Lakers clobbered the Nuggets in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals). On the other hand, as a realist I don't see these Nuggets as presently constructed dethroning the Lakers, nor do I see Nuggets owner Stan Kroenke - whose roster already exceeds the NBA's luxury tax threshold by $4 or $5 million - anteing up to spend even more money to steal a big man from a cash-strapped opposing franchise.
So all this got me thinking: is this the place we want to be as a franchise? Good enough to play deep into the postseason, but perhaps not good enough to get farther than that?
Forget for a second where you think the Nuggets currently rank in the NBA hierarchy (ESPN.com's Mark Stein has us sixth overall, which I agree with) and allow me to rank where you, as a fan, want your franchise "to be" entering a new season - in order of best to worst scenario. With best being a championship-caliber team with young-ish players (like the Lakers) and worst being a low lottery team - picks 6-13 - with old veterans (like the Suns).
Note that when I say "young-ish" players I'm referring to teams that have a three-to-four year run in them based on the core of their team - i.e. their best four or five players. I think most people would agree with me that Kobe Bryant (31 years old), Pau Gasol (29), Lamar Odom (29), Ron Artest (29) and Andrew Bynum (only 21, egads!) have a three-to-four year run in them. And when I say "old veterans", I'm referring to the core three or four players being old and/or having years of wear and year and, and a result, have only one or two good seasons in them before they're starting from scratch. The Celtics fit this bill with Kevin Garnett (33), Ray Allen (34), Rasheed Wallace (35) and Paul Pierce (31) all north of 30 years old. Conversely, the Cavaliers - with LeBron James (24), Shaquille O'Neal (37), Mo Williams (26), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (34) and Anthony Parker (34) - are a mixed bag.
Here are my generic rankings for where you as a fan want your team "to be" with specific examples in parentheses.
1. Championship-caliber team with young-ish players (Lakers, Magic)
2. Championship-caliber team with mix of young-ish players and old veterans (Cavaliers, Spurs)
3. Championship-caliber team with old veterans (Celtics)
4. Conference finals-caliber team with young-ish players (no current examples)
5. Conference finals-caliber team with mix of young-ish players and old veterans (Nuggets, Mavericks)
6. Playoff contender with young-ish players (Trail Blazers, Hawks)
7. Playoff contender with mix of young-ish players and old veterans (Jazz, Wizards and Rockets - if healthy)
8. Playoff participant with young-ish players (Pistons, Bulls, Clippers, Heat)
9. Playoff participant with mix of young-ish players and old veterans (Hornets, 76ers)
10. High lottery pick (1-5) with young-ish players and cap flexibility (Thunder, Timberwolves)
11. Playoff participant with old veterans (no current examples)
12. High lottery pick (1-5) with mix of young-ish players and old veterans (Knicks, Bucks, Kings)
13. Low lottery pick (6-13) with young-ish players (Pacers, Nets)
14. Low lottery pick (6-13) with mix of young-ish players and old veterans (Suns, Raptors, Bobcats, Warriors, Grizzlies)
In keeping with that "long memory" mentality, I suppose the answer would be yes - the Nuggets are in a good place. As a Nuggets fan, it's pretty to rare to say your team is a legitimate conference finals contender, now three seasons in a row (one squandered, one delivered and one to be determined)! But that being said, this business isn't about appearing in conference finals but rather, winning NBA Championships. And thus, that's where the conflict as a fan comes into play. After all, it can be tough rooting for a team whose only pathway to the NBA Finals might be a major injury to one of the Lakers or Spurs' core players.
Rooting for a Kobe Bryant or a Tony Parker injury aside, and presuming - for now - that the Nuggets let their $9 million or so trade exception expire in early November without making a substantive deal, I still foresee one way that the Nuggets could vault into the NBA Finals in 2010. I'll be getting into this more as the regular season tipoff approaches, but it essentially boils down to this...
Carmelo Anthony must perform in the regular season as he performed in Games 1 and 2 of the Western Conference Finals.
This might be a pipe dream, but it's the best shot the Nuggets have to move up into the top spot on that ranking list above and secure their first ever Larry O'Brien trophy. I'm talking a 29 to 30 ppg, 7-8 rpg, 3-4 apg, 50% shooting season from Melo. It would be his best ever. I'm talking 9-10 free throw attempts each night, where he's routinely punishing the opposing team's defenders with his size and quickness inside. I'm talking the disruptive, "I'll-guard-the-opposing-team's-best-player" defense we saw in Games 1 and 2, and not the lethargic, lazy, El Matador defense we saw in Games 3 through 6.
Already, the local media is serving up their annual pre-season puff pieces on how hard Melo worked all summer, what great shape he's supposedly in and how the Nuggets are focused on a championship. This type of pre-season talk makes me nervous and skeptical...probably because I wholeheartedly bought into the "60 wins" Kool-Aid so easily in 2007. Frankly, I liked last year's overwhelmingly negative press assuming the Nuggets wouldn't even make the playoffs much better! In regards to Melo's conditioning and off-season regimen, while I have no reason to doubt this reporting I just won't take it seriously as I've heard this every September since Melo's second season in Denver.
I'm not quite ready to write an official "This one's on Melo" column until we see how he looks in pre-season games (I'm aiming to be at two games to see how he looks up close). But how could it be any other way? Anything short of Melo embracing the true meaning of superstar basketball - on both ends of the floor - and the Nuggets probably don't make a repeat appearance in the conference finals and certainly don't get a sniff of the NBA Finals. That's what it's going to take this year because the big man fairy we were all hoping for this summer never showed up.
So if you ask me, or yourself, again: are we in a good place as a franchise? My answer for now is: pretty good, but ask Melo because it's up to him.
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Before Melo
I moved to Colorado from Seattle when I was 6, back in 93. I didn’t really become aware of the Nuggets until I saw the Supersonics play them during the season when the Nuggets tied the longest single-season losing streak of all-time.
I remember thinking that they were so bad that they couldn’t even follow through with the losing streak and make the record their own. I didn’t really follow the Nuggets until the early 2000s, when the Nuggets still sucked.
But then the clouds parted and Carmelo Anthony descended from on high, and the Nuggets have been in the postseason ever since (Which made it even more crazy that people wanted him to be traded last off-season). Having grown up in Colorado, I feel like the Nuggets are a part of my history now and they are forever entrenched as my favorite team of any sport.
If all we ever get with Melo is a couple of conference finals appearances, I would be happy with that. Especially when considering that all of the good veterans take pay cuts to play with the Lakers, San Antonio, or Boston. Or when Pau Gasol gets donated to the Lakers. Or knowing that the Nuggets aren’t even the most popular team in their own market.
I agree with Mr. Feinstein; Melo can be as good as he wants to be, and the team’s fortunes rest with him. Maybe I’m just delusional, but I think this year, just like I have thought every year since we got Melo, that we’re going all the way. Of course, I thought that Iverson would help us sweep the Spurs…
Fantastic Post
I agree on everything. The REAL difference between us being Conference Finals contenders and Championship caliber contenders is A) George Karl, and B) Carmelo Anthony. Look, we all know Karl is a great coach, the numbers don’t lie. But is he ready, right now, to deliver a championship to this town? I don’t think so. He sure doesn’t play the part (ie: working the refs, actually standing up, showing emotion, calling actual plays, making sure the lineup that is on the floor gives us the best chance to win, ect). So that is the #1 thing keeping us from a championship right now imo. The second, yes, is Melo. You look around the league these days and every championship caliber team has one player on that team that is a perennial All-Star and has proven himself to be reliable when his team needs him most (ie: Kobe with the Lakers, Duncan with the Spurs, KG/PP with the Celtics, Lebron with Cleveland, ect). But is Melo really in that category? It’s a tough question to answer because we want to be partial to since we are Nugs fans, but quite frankly I’m not sure Melo is in that class. In the most crucial playoff series of his career he posted great numbers, but again, they weren’t Kobe great. They weren’t Lebron great. They weren’t Duncan great. They weren’t even Wade great. So, basically all this rambling from me is saying that I totally agree 100% with what Andy said. We have the pieces right now for a player with the talent that Melo has to lift us to a title. But can Melo do that? That’s the real question will will find out this year.
Melo should have been an All Star last season
Remember he was snubbed in favor of David West. Who? Yeah I know. Melo is an All Star. Whether or not coaches and media want to admit it. His numbers aren’t KB, LBJ, or Wade, because he’s not them. He’s Melo, and aside from Kobe everyone else on that list was a post season no show. Even Lebron wasn’t the regular season Lebron. Melo got better in the post season, he didn’t decline.
by Joelsopinion on Sep 28, 2009 12:13 PM MDT up reply actions
David West more than proved in the playoffs that he's not an All-Star
I’m sure the reason why Melo wasn’t on was because he was out with a hand injury. Of course, if those 3 stars missed a month with a broken hand, either the fans or the coaches would be 100% certain to put them on, even if they aren’t going to play. Turns out Melo came back from the injury several weeks before ASW
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
out team the other team
2 team stats jump out at me when i look at last season. nugs ranked 20th in free throw percentage and 15th in rebounding. more games are won or lost at the free throw line at any level high school, college and pros. example jr smith. he will hit three 3 point shots in a row with 2 defenders all over him. on his 4th attempt he gets fouled and misses 2 of three foul shots. a 15 foot set shot, with nobody guarding you, clock stopped and 10 seconds to shoot it. rebounding- not a single player averages 10 a game. too many times opponenents get 2 and 3 chances. big problems are nene and melo do not have a 24 second attention span on defense. they lose track of the ball and the man they are guarding. defense away from the ball is the weakest part of their game. i think melo’s scoring will depend on his rebounding. 10 boards a game = 25 points. 15 boards will get him 30. if he becomes a force offensive rebounding it will open up the floor for him and his team. i am not talking about open looks from the 3 point line open from 15 feet. the other problem they have is executing their plays. the offense is set up to drive to the basket as a first option. too many times klieza, melo and jr would launch a 3 pointer early in the play and then jog back on defense instead of following their shot. passing the ball and forcing the other team to play defense is a good thing especially at altitude. san antonio and utah are the best in the nba at execution. if keith brumbaugh works out the only piece of the puzzle they are missing is an aaron gray type player. coach karl will be the first to admit he is not the best coach in the nba. i do feel very stongly the coaching staff as a whole is the best. rebounding, free throws and execution are all up to the players. a combo forward with 3 point range and a jumbo big man can still be had by the front office. denver might be half way there with keith brumbaugh.
pick up a calf every day pretty soon you will be picking up a cow
J.R. Smith has a good free-throw stroke
However, he only shoots 70% from the line because he probably doesn’t practice it enough. If he put the work into his free-throwing, I’m sure he’d shoot about 80%, which is a big difference in a close game.
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
Combo forward with 3-point range: Rob Kurz
Jumbo big man: um…………
KB can also shoot the three, but Rob shoots it better, when you consider that KB played in the D-League, where the defenses are not as good as they are in the NBA. Brumbaugh is better from inside the arc.
Rob Kurz is like another Kleiza, while KB is just intriguing. He is too skinny to play PF, so he does a lot of SG and SF. His size makes him a pest on defense when guarding other wings. He’s like Sun Yue except with a lot more skill and potential.
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
Still good long term
Very good article, but a little too focused on this year. I think we are a playoff team this year, but we have the core to become better in years to come. With Melo, Nene and JR, we could be good for years. The keys are the end of Kenyon’s contract, which will give us more flexibility, and the development of Lawson. If he becomes a real point guard, we can use the money we get from Kenyon to get a big man. If not, we will be forced to go second-tier for a big man and a point guard.
I agree with Drew but...
We’re indeed poised for the long term with some major pillars in place and some pending flexibility, but we DO need to focus on this year and I think that with camp set to start, that’s the focus of this article.
This is a win-now team… possibly. Let’s focus on that right?
And on the Melo front, I think the guy has peaked. Not that he can’t stay at that peak, but I don’t think we’re going to see much development out of the guy anywhere. He kinda is what he is at this point. We know what we got, and it’s a good player. I don’t expect scoring rebounding or assist increases in Melo unless there’s a shift in the gameplan that would force a focus on any of those categories.
Melo has peaked in terms of skill
He still can become a better player by giving 1000% effort on both ends of the court and on the boards night in and night out. Defense is 90% effort, and Melo is still improving on that end of the court.
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
I respectfully disagree
Melo was killing the NBA before his 15 game suspension for the “brawl” and then they brought in AI. Melo was averaging like 31 ppg. I expect him to keep his rebounding and assist numbers where they were last year during the season and I expect his ppg to be back up around 28-30. He played hurt a lot last year and didn’t have the summer off.
free throws
melo shot 79% last season. if he shoots 90%+ it puts him over 25 ppg. he averaged 31 ppg with the new synthetic b-ball everybody hated back then. if he blocks out and fights for better position under the boards he will be an outstanding rebounder.
pick up a calf every day pretty soon you will be picking up a cow
I don't think he can do 90% with his current stroke
You need a good, fluid Ray Allen/Chauncey Billups-style free-throw stroke AND a boatload of practice to reach 90%. 85% is wayyyy more realistic for Melo.
However, Rick Barry showed that unconventional FT strokes can also be accurate.
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
Yeah
Melo will never be a 90% ft shooter. Like LACK said, he doesn’t have the stoke.
by GoldenNugget on Sep 28, 2009 10:20 PM MDT up reply actions
free throw
is an old school set shot, clock is stopped, no defense and 10 seconds to shoot it. stroke is more critical on a jump shot.
pick up a calf every day pretty soon you will be picking up a cow
You guys should go read the similar Balzer's Edge post...
I mean…Blazer’s Edge. Heh.
Not one of them believes that the Nuggets are a better team than the Blazers, save maybe the original OP of this post .
“I think the Nuggets are due for a big drop”
“The Nuggs will be after us, that is all. I can’t see them getting any better without any huge moves, which will be interesting.”
" Denver will not end the season above P-town…
so let it be written"
I understand that there are a lot of homers on any board, but they got trounced out of the playoffs by Houston and believe that they will be substantially better than a Nuggets team that went to the WCF last year and took the Lakers to six games. Even when they get put in their place time and time again, Blazers posters still seem to believe that Portland is the best (AND SHOULD BE IN EVERYONE’S MINDS EVERYONE UNDERRATES US WAHHH) team in the NW Division.
As for our Nugs, I think they will probably match their win total from last year. Yeah, we lost Kleiza, but I’m pretty sure we can account for his massive 10ppg and 4 rebs off the bench with Balkman and Brumbaugh. Afflalo is a more than adequate replacement for Dahntay. Carmelo will (hopefully) play without his elbow contusion affecting his game. Nene is going to continue to excel inside. Birdman will still be contributing ~3 BPG.
We’re in a good place.
Swats.
just scratching the surface
a year ago the biggest story with denver was if they were going to trade melo. things have changed for the better. nugs have been with the current edition for less than a year. every individual in the organization from top to bottom is on the same page and going in the right direction. there are 17 players in camp, 11 contracts are gaurunteed, minimum 13 players on the regular season roster with a max of 15. denver has all kinds of flexibility and the best is yet to come.
pick up a calf every day pretty soon you will be picking up a cow
Cliche
But the Blazers are the dumbest fans in the NBA imo. I hate to say that, it’s mean and insulting, but no joke, they know NOTHING about basketball. They genuinly think they are “co-division champions” simply becuase they tied us record-wise. So, basically, you should take everything they say with a grain of salt.
by GoldenNugget on Sep 29, 2009 9:41 PM MDT up reply actions
ummm.....
that is exactly what that means. they are co division champs……. they had the same record.. not sure what this comment is suppose to mean… so the blazers are not co division champs? did i miss something?
"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"
"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski
I think so
Although they had the same record at the end of the regular season, Denver had more wins within the division, thus the number two seed, so technically the Nuggets are the division title holder for 08-09. Really though there is only one trophey at the end of it all and both teams missed the boat.
agreed, but both teams get division champs banners
"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"
"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski
That's not the case ... Denver is the lone division champ from last season.
See John Hollinger’s article …
At first, this seems to be setting the bar awfully low. Portland tied Denver atop the Northwest division with 54 wins last season, losing the division crown on a tiebreaker, and even the biggest Blazers cynic would put them on an even plane with the Nuggets heading into this season.
From the story here.
Denver Stiffs.com: Defending the sovereignty of Nuggets Nation.
Sorry but you are wrong...
The tie breaker only affects playoff seeds… They are Co division champs
"The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don't have to waste your time voting"
"I don't like jail, they got the wrong kind of bars in there"
Charles Bukowski
you obviously didn't watch the same finals last year.
the only reason the lakers beat the nuggets was two plays. two plays and the nuggets go on to the finals and DESTROY orlando. orlando proved to be not a championship caliber team. hence the 4 to 1 beatdown they got. they would have been beaten down by any western conference playoff team last season.
the nuggets lost focus on two key moments. reverse two plays and we have a different nba champion.
skip to my lou
i think the main reason orlando lost was using jameer nelson instead of rafer alston. derek fisher had to use alot of energy to keep up with him. the only time orlando won was when alston was in at the end of the game. fisher was able to coast on defense with nelson in the line up and save energy. there is no way fisher hits two 3 pointers (one at the end of regulation and one in overtime) having to keep up with alston during the game. alston guarding fisher on those plays i doubt he would have been open to get the passes for those shots. in game 1 if courtney lee makes the lay up at the end of the game or the refs call gasol for goal tending the series would have been way closer. this underscores your point on how beatable the lal were.
pick up a calf every day pretty soon you will be picking up a cow
Nuggets woulda creamed Orlando with matchups
K-Mart can easily shut down Rashard, Dahntay’s tenacity would at least control Hedo, Melo would rough up Courtney Lee, and he wouldn’t have much problem against Pietrus either. A somewhat-rusty Jameer Nelson wouldn’t have done well against Chauncey, and Rafer Alston is really a 6th man at this point in his career. Nene maybe would get shoved around a bit by Howard, but the Nuggets would still have beaten the Magic in 6.
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
Blazers are
conference finals contenders at least. Not just playoff contenders. Making the playoffs will be a given for the Blazers for the next 10+ years.
Dude, that isn't really true...10 years?!?
Is “64-18” the Nuggets record this season? Because, no offense, but an Andre Miller led offense won’t get you more than 60 wins.
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
My, my, there are a good deal of Blazer fans here...
We don’t troll on your site…
It’s weird seeing J.R. in a #5 jersey. Also, when I see Ty Lawson and his #3 play, he reminds me of a poor-man’s Iverson, abeit without the hair.
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
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