Extensions for Melo, Karl and Wark?...

If you're like me and have been disappointed by the Post's lack of Nuggets coverage during the offseason, I encourage you to read our old friend Chris Tomasson's latest articles at the Rocky Mountain Independent and Pro Basketball News. Doing his usual solid reporting, Tomasson has some news for us regarding the contracts for Nuggets head coach George Karl, Vice President of Basketball Operations Mark Warkentien and even Carmelo Anthony and other players.

Before jumping into the news, it should be noted that this is further proof of why print is losing out to the internet. While the Post guys continue to write to their "print" limitations, Tomasson (and even myself here at Denver Stiffs) can write to what needs to be said, not to what needs to be printed.

According to Tomasson...

...the Nuggets are going to extend George Karl for two more years. Readers of this blog know my take on a Karl extension. While I believe he did a great job last season, I'm concerned that much of this was because Karl had something to prove. If he gets cushy job security now, are we going to get the same Karl in 2009-10? I'd prefer to see Karl extended after we see how the Nuggets respond to their newfound success.

...Nuggets vice president of basketball operations Mark Warkentien - who won the NBA's 2008-09 Executive of the Year - is also in line for an extension. I must admit that Wark is starting to win me over. I didn't like the direction he had the Nuggets going in (and said so many, many, many times) when he was assembling a Denver squad that mirrored the Jailblazers he co-architected in Portland. But since last season's disastrous playoff "run" ended, Warkentien (along with co-GM Rex Chapman and team adviser Bret Bearup) has finally put a premium on character over characters. Hence the acquisitions of Renaldo Balkman, Chris Andersen, Dahntay Jones and, of course, Chauncey Billups. If the Nuggets want to extend Warkentien now, Denver Stiffs is ok with it.

On the player front, Melo told Tomasson that if the Nuggets wanted to discuss an extension this summer, he'd "consider that." As of today, Melo is in line to receive $18.5 million in 2011-12, if he doesn't opt out before then. And Tomasson is also reporting that the Nuggets will sign Anthony Carter for the minimum (if Carter accepts it), won't match an offer to Linas Kleiza if he's overpaid and are open to bringing back Johan Petro for the right price.

Of note in all this is that the Nuggets weren't willing to pay Channing Frye $2 million per year. I thought $2 million was the right price for Frye, but now we know why we lost him to the Suns.

As Tomasson indicates, all of this news ties into one theme: the Nuggets want stability. On the surface of it, I like stability. Especially given that the Nuggets had virtually no stability between the post-Alex English era and the current Carmelo Anthony era. That being said, I don't believe the Nuggets as presently constructed have enough size to overtake the Lakers or Spurs. I appreciate the organization's desire to keep a winning team together, but they need to find a way to add a center without disrupting the chemistry we currently have.

Unfortunately, the only person that seems to be suggesting bold trades for a true center is me.

The case of the missing two-guard solved?...

The Denver Post's Benjamin Hochman is reporting that the Nuggets are working on a deal with their exclusive trading partner, the Pistons, for backup two-guard Arron Afflalo. Like Jones and the numerous second-tier "shooting" guards that passed through Denver over the years, Afflalo has a very unconventional (read: bad form) jump shot but has a lot of upside. He's not the athlete Jones is/was but, like Jones, he's 6'5", weighs 215 pounds and Afflalo even put up the same numbers as Jones in less playing time.

The Nuggets need at two-guard in Jones' absence isn't all about the numbers, of course, and the knock on Afflalo has been his defense. Or lack of it. But Jones had the same rap before the Nuggets coaching staff coaxed him into a solid defender, and maybe they could replicate that success with Afflalo, too. We'll analyze a possible Afflalo acquisition in further detail if/when this actually happens.

On a side note, our hopes of Channing Frye wearing a powder blue and gold jersey next season have been officially dashed. The Phoenix Suns have signed two of the Nuggets offseason targets: Frye and Grant Hill.

Depending on what the Nuggets give up, I'd be in favor of an Afflalo acquisition. He's cheap, young, has big upside, etc. But this isn't the "big move" we're all hoping for.

Stay tuned...

The Nuggets suddenly need a two-guard...

Yahoo! Sports is reporting that the Indiana Pacers have signed Dahntay Jones to a four year, $11 million contract. Congrats to Dahntay for securing some serious cash in a bad NBA economy.

Now it's time for the Nuggets to find a new "shooting" guard and a new cheerleader from the bench. I heard Darnell Mee is available cheap.

On a side note, I'm so glad that our ticket dollars will be contributed to Antonio McDyess' contract so that he can play for the Spurs, likely making them better than the Nuggets. Gotta love that salary cap.

The Nuggets offseason: Dahntay Jones...

Before jumping into whether or not the Nuggets should re-sign Dahntay Jones, two news stories just broke tonight that will impact Dahntay's future.

First, the NBA's salary cap for 2009-10 will be lowered to $57.7 million and, of more importance to Nuggets fans, the luxury tax threshold - the number which teams are forced to pay a dollar-for-dollar tax if they exceed it - has been lowered to $69.92 million. For those keeping score at home, this is about $1.5 million less than Denver Stiffs and alleged NBA "experts" had forecast since the season ended.

And second, Chris "Birdman" Andersen has re-signed with the Nuggets for up to $26 million, with Andersen getting $3.7 million next season in an incentive-laden contract, according to the Denver Post's Benjamin Hochman. I guess the BringBackBirdman.com petition worked after all!

Lost in the shuffle between the re-signing of Chris Andersen, possibly signing another free agent and the acquisition of Ty Lawson has been the re-signing of Dahntay Jones, one of the best surprises of the 2008-09 Nuggets season. Even I was dubious about Dahntay early in the season when, just a handful of games into Dahtnay's first Nuggets season, I added him to the list of Nuggets "shooting" guards who can't make a shot. A full season and postseason later, Dahntay still couldn't hit an outside jump shot with consistency but he proved to be a valuable member of the team. And when you factor in his $1.3 million contract, Jones was an absolute steal.

The problem going forward, of course, is that Dahntay can't be had for $1.3 million again. What price will he command? Will the Nuggets be willing to pay it? Should they? Let's discuss...

The Good: To the credit of George Karl and his coaching staff, the Nuggets were able to convert Dahntay from a dunk-only slasher with no jump shot to a physically tough, solid defensive two-guard who still threw down jaw-dropping dunks. The reason I mention Karl and his staff here is because I know for certain they spent a lot of time with Dahntay so he wouldn't end up in the obscure dustbin of Nuggets shooting guard history with names like Yakhouba Diawara, Von Wafer, Bobby Jones, DerMarr Johnson, Julius Hodge and countless others.

Simply put, Dahntay was the closest things the Nuggets have ever had to a Bruce Bowen-type defender and he played the part well. In only 18 minutes of playing time a night, the Nuggets could count on Dahntay to make his six allotted fouls mean something, while pestering his opposing shooting guards into tough shots and finishing fast breaks with authority. And even though myself and many other fans demanded that J.R. Smith start in place of Dahntay early in the season, the rotation of having Dahntay play about eight to ten first quarter minutes and then have J.R. enter as a spark off the bench seemed to work more than it didn't. (It should be noted that as reported on this blog by Chris Tomasson, J.R. will likely be replacing Dahntay as the starting two-guard next season whether Dahntay returns or not.)

And beyond his performance on the floor, Dahntay's enthusiasm from the sidelines was unparalleled on the Nuggets this year. Having been all but kicked out of the league for poor play in his first five seasons, you could tell that Dahntay appreciated every second he had with the Nuggets in 2008-09. Frankly, I think Dahntay was a better cheerleader for the Nuggets than their actual cheerleaders.

The Bad: Entering your sixth NBA season, you don't find yourself scrambling to make a roster during the NBA Summer League without a good reason. In Dahntay's case, his inability to make an open jump shot and a suspect defensive effort got him cast off by the lowly Sacramento Kings in 2008, making him available for the Nuggets to poach him for next-to-nothing (by NBA standards) last summer. But that should be old news at this point.

The current knock on Dahntay remains that wretched jump shot, which to be fair improved from the corner (even from three) as the season went on but needs a great deal more work. Another negative levied at Dahntay would be his sometimes careless defensive play. He's prone to picking up easy fouls that don't deter the opposition from scoring while getting the Nuggets into early foul trouble. And we're well aware of his propensity to play dirty, as well. Look, I hate Kobe Bryant as much as the next non-Lakers fan (well, probably more) but tripping and pushing Kobe in the back does the Nuggets no good. In fact, it only gets a player like Kobe more fired up (see Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals).

The final "bad" on Dahntay isn't actually Dahntay's fault, but rather Karl's. For some bizarre reason - and with very few rare exceptions - whenever Karl pulled Dahntay from a game and substituted in J.R., we'd never see Dahntay again. I joked in the playoffs that Karl treated Dahntay like a pitcher in a baseball game. Once he was out, he was out permanently. I have no problem with J.R. being subbed in for Dahntay, clearly an upgrade. But then Karl would bring in the six-foot Anthony Carter for J.R., leaving Dahntay on the bench while A.C. played side-by-side with Chauncey Billups. If the Nuggets decide to re-sign Dahntay, one can only hope that Karl realizes he's allowed to sub Dahntay back into the game when J.R. is having an off night.

Possible Replacement(s): Unfortunately for Mr. Jones, he picked the wrong summer to come off the best season of his career. And with the news breaking of the NBA's luxury tax number being lowered to $69.92 million, not only will it be virtually impossible for the Nuggets to pay Dahntay the $3 million or so he'll command in the open market, but the replacements for Dahntay - if any - has just become a very short list.

With Chris Andersen making $3.7 million next season, about $2.2 million will be available to re-sign Dahntay or another player as part of the Nuggets mid-level exception money.

In the $2 million range that the Nuggets have to spend, there are a handful of players to consider. These names include Hill, Matt Barnes, Steve Novak, Von Wafer and Channing Frye. But a lot of those potential acquisitions depends greatly on what happens with Linas Kleiza and if the Nuggets are able to make a deal for a true center. For example, if Kleiza were to be signed by the Raptors and the Nuggets don't match, then signing Barnes, Wafer or Novak would come into play because the Nuggets would need three-point shooting. But if the Nuggets were to keep Kleiza and not obtain a true center, Frye would be the guy we'd need. Hill is versatile enough to contribute at two-guard or small forward, but he'll likely gravy train with the Celtics (a good thing considering they weren't old and injury prone enough already) or end his career with a thud by signing with the Knicks as is being reported now.

It should be noted that with the lowering of the cap, other attractive free agents who won't be too pricey to some are now unavailable to the Nuggets. This list includes Hakim Warrick, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, Marquis Daniels, Rashad McCants and for those of you pining away for the Nuggets to sign Shawn Marion outright let me be very clear: FORGET IT!!

The Verdict: Assuming Dantay commands $3-plus million per season, his days as a Nugget are over. The question then becomes, what do you do with the $2 million of mid-level exception money that should be leftover from the Andersen deal? I'll give you two scenarios...

If Kleiza departs but the Nuggets secure a center via trade, you have to consider Barnes or Novak to fill the three-point gap and spread the floor on offense.

If Kleiza stays but the Nuggets don't acquire a center via trade, Frye's the guy whom the Nuggets should allocate their $2 million mid-level exception to.

This isn't to say that I don't want Dahntay back in a Nuggets uniform, because I very much do. It was evident that Dahntay is a hard worker and I like how his game improved as the season went on. But between Andersen, Carter, Kleiza and Dahntay, it appears as though Dahntay is most likely to be a salary cap casualty.

On a final note, I'll sign off tonight with a quick Dahntay-related story. Courtesy of my friend's great seats, I sat right behind Dahntay's mom and his adorable son for every playoff game. During one of the games, my friend said something to Ms. Jones like "I hope Dahntay comes back next year." In a nice way, her reply was: "tell the team that."

Dahntay Jones deserves our thanks for giving us everything he had to give last season. Let's hope the Nuggets find an able replacement and he won't be missed too much.

[CORRECTION] In my recent column on potential free agent signings, I suggested that Andersen could sign a backloaded deal that would pay him $2 million in year one, $3 million in year two and so on. Chris Tomasson of the Rocky Mountain Independent has since corrected me. Since the Birdman has no "Bird Rights", the most he could be increased each year is 8%. Hence why Andersen will be making $3.7 million in year one of his new contract.

Carmelo Anthony charity event TONIGHT...

Fellow Stiffs...

If you're based in Denver and are looking for something fun to do tonight, come join me and other Nuggets fans at the grand opening of Carmelo Anthony's new barber shop. The details are below or you can click on the image or visit the site for more information.

If you decide to make it and want to meet up, email me beforehand and let me know.

Hope to see you there!

"MELO OUT at STUDIO 15"

6-11pm

1740 Blake Street

Carmelo Anthony will be signing autographs from 7-8pm

Join Lead Alliance, Carmelo Anthony, Denver Magazine, The Beat Show and Boys and Girls Clubs of Metro Denver at Studio 15 for a night of haircuts, community, networking, live music, prizes, and FREE drinks and food.

Mingle with local socialites, celebrities and professional athletes.

Raffle with autographed merchandise from Carmelo Anthony.

You MUST RSVP at meloout@lamgworldwide.com. To RSVP and enter the raffle you MUST BOOK AN APPOINTMENT by calling Studio 15 at 303-295-1880 and mentioning "Melo Out" for a 25% discount.

Now what? Part deux...

The news reverberated throughout Nuggets Nation like the thunder storms that hit Colorado late Wednesday night: Ron Artest will be signing with the Lakers for the mid-level exception (approximately $5.6 million per season). While some have already conceded the 2010 NBA Championship to the Lakers, others are predicting that Artest will ruin the Lakers championship chemistry.

Like the other "troubled" NBA stars of years past who joined veteran, championship-caliber teams (such as Rasheed Wallace with the Pistons or Dennis Rodman with the Bulls), I believe Artest will fit in well with the Lakers and, most unfortunately for Nuggets fans, make the Lakers better.

Even worse, Artest's arrival - and Trevor Ariza's departure to the Rockets - all but guarantees that Lamar Odom will re-sign with the Lakers. Not only can the Lakers offer Odom more than any other team (because they hold his "Bird Rights"), but both he and Artest were born in Queens, NY only seven days apart and as a result allegedly have a long time friendship.

By the way, how do you think George Karl's inbounds pass "plays" will work when the Lakers have Kobe Bryant, Artest, Odom, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum on the floor together. Gulp.

But just because the Lakers have officially certified themselves as the New York Yankees of the NBA doesn't mean the Nuggets need to give up on their summer plans to improve and go for their first championship in franchise history. A lot can happen in an NBA season, whether it be injuries, chemistry issues, off the court problems, and so forth (of course, those things tend to afflict the Nuggets more than the Lakers, but one can hope). And as long as it's within the realm of an owner's financial ability to spend without losing too much money, I believe multi-billionaire owners have an obligation to the fans to do whatever it takes to win if they have that rare chance at a title. Which the Nuggets do.

Fortunately for Nuggets fans, I believe we have one of those owners. The problem for Stan Kroenke and the Nuggets' front office brass, however, is that even if Stan is willing to spend over the luxury tax to win, the Nuggets don't have a lot of options (as we've been detailing with for weeks now).

I've already laid out four trade proposals that creatively circumvent some of the Nuggets luxury tax woes. But with Artest joining the Lakers and Hedo Turkoglu rumored to be a Trail Blazer by the time I wake up, adding a Marc Gasol or a Jeff Foster may not be enough for the Nuggets to reign supreme in the Western Conference. They'll need a free agent, too.

But how can the Nuggets possibly sign an impact free agent? They're likely going to commit at least $4 million per year to Chris Andersen, eating up much of the $5.6 million mid level exception money that the Lakers used to sign Artest, the Rockets will use to sign Trevor Ariza and the Celtics might be able to use to sign Rasheed Wallace. And if the Nuggets make any one of the trades I proposed or another deal I hadn't thought of, not only will they be well into luxury tax territory but they'll also eat into that $9.8 million trade exception, limiting sign-and-trade possibilities.

Stumped by this conundrum, I asked my friend Travis Heath of HoopsWorld.com what the Nuggets options are and he pointed out that there's already been talk of the Nuggets backloading the Birdman deal and Andersen's agent being amenable to it. Duh!! When Travis mentioned this, I couldn't believe I hadn't given this scenario more thought. By "backloading" the contract, the Nuggets could - in theory - give Birdman a five-year, $20 million deal in which he'd get like $2 million in year one, $3 million in year two, $4 million in year three, $5 million in year four and $6 million in year five. On the surface it sounds crazy to pay a 36 year old Chris Andersen $6 million in 2013-14, but by then it'd be an expiring contract that in of itself would have trade value.

The bottom line is that if the Nuggets were able to get away with paying Birdman $2 to $3 million this upcoming season, they'd have another $3 million or so of mid level exception money to spend on a free agent. That won't be enough to bag a Paul Millsap or a Rasheed Wallace or a Shawn Marion or even an Anderson Varejao, but in this economy there will be plenty of other intriguing options at bargain (by NBA standards) prices. Such as...

Channing Frye

It's already leaked that the Nuggets have "interest" in Frye, whatever that means. Thus far, Frye has had a Joe Smith-type NBA career. Meaning, he had a great rookie year but his performance has rescinded since. But if there are two things you can't coach in the NBA it's height (Frye is listed at 6'11") and age (just turned 26 in May). If the Nuggets aren't able to swing a trade for a legit seven-foot center, then bringing in someone like Frye would be the least they could do. If such a center is somehow added, Frye provides great "power forward insurance" to the injury prone Kenyon Martin and Nene. And for about $3 million per season, Frye could be had.

Likelihood: 20%

Dahntay Jones

With all the commotion over the draft, free agency and potential trades, I haven't been able to write up my offseason analysis of Dahntay Jones, a real contributor to the Nuggets success last season. We'll get more into the specifics of Dahntay's future with the Nuggets soon, but the broad strokes are that if the Nuggets were to acquire a center via trade and could get Birdman's contract down in the first two years, re-signing Dahntay must be a priority. Though he's an awful outside shooter, his value is defensively where he gave the Nuggets their first Bruce Bowen-type player since T.R. Dunn manned the starting two-guard spot. Dahntay is also a good finisher around the basket and was cheated out of playing time by George Karl in favor of an absurd Anthony Carter/Chauncey Billups backcourt. If Dahntay can be re-signed for less than $3 million per season, it deserves very serious consideration.

Likelihood: 20%

Grant Hill

Like Frye, Hill has been rumored to be in the Nuggets sights. When I first heard this rumor I didn't like it. But if the Nuggets were to lose Linas Kleiza due to either free agency or in a trade to acquire a true center, someone would need to step into the backup small forward spot and why not Hill? Yes, he's old and injury prone - although he appeared in all 82 games last season and 70 the season before, notably the two seasons when he wasn't on my fantasy team - but Hill is still a major contributor offensively and would fit in perfectly with the Nuggets new direction of acquiring character over characters. My hunch is Hill could be had for about $2.5-$3 million per season at this stage of his career.

Likelihood: 15%

Chris Wilcox

We've heard nothing that indicates Wilcox even being on the Nuggets radar, but he should be. Wilcox is a tough, bruising 6'10" and is coming off a sub-par season by his standards. Signing or not signing Wilcox would depend a lot on the Nuggets ability to secure a true center via a trade. If the Nuggets were to come up empty on the center front, Wilcox merits serious consideration. The problem is that he's coming off a $6.5 million annual contract and might not be available in the $2-$3 million range.

Likelihood: 10%

Leon Powe

File this suggestion under "Wishful Thinking," but I've wanted Powe to be a Nugget ever since Powe was, well, a Nugget (the Nuggets drafted him 49th overall in 2006). The Celtics foolishly decided not to offer Powe a qualifying offer, making the power forward who recently underwent his third knee surgery an unrestricted free agent. But given Powe's incredible attitude and work ethic combined with the wonders that Nuggets conditioning coach Steve Hess has done with K-Mart and Nene's knees, why not let Powe rehab on Denver's watch (he'd be available halfway through the 2009-10 season) while grooming him to be K-Mart's heir apparent?

Likelihood: 8%

Antonio McDyess

I hadn't even thought of McDyess ever appearing again in a Nuggets uniform until one of this blog's readers suggested it. The thinking here is pretty simple: we're paying him $3 million next season whether he plays for the Nuggets or not, so why not throw in an extra million or two and have him actually show up? Of course, McDyess would have to forget that whole "I hate Denver and will never play there ever, ever, ever, ever again" thing that he has going on.

Likelihood: 2%

Others who merit a low ball offer but will likely be too pricey: Hakim Warrick, Drew Gooden, Zaza Pachulia and Mikki Moore.

I have to admit I don't have an absolute favorite on the list above. To me, Frye and Powe have the most upside with Dahntay and Hill being the safer bets. Frankly, I don't think the Nuggets could go wrong with any of those four. But again, this all depends on the Nuggets ability to backload Birdman's contract and not get into crazy luxury tax territory through another potential deal.

Worst case scenario, I'll have fully recovered from my own ACL surgery by November and I'll take one of those remaining roster spots.

Now what? Four proposed trades the Nuggets should think about...

Note: This is the first of two columns suggesting moves the Nuggets could make this summer. Today's column focuses on trades for players under contract elsewhere and a second column will focus on acquiring unrestricted free agents.

Last August, I wrote a piece on Allen Iverson titled: "The hardest man to trade in the NBA?" (Which, in hindsight should have been titled "The second hardest man to trade in the NBA?" as Kenyon Martin was and still is the hardest guy to get rid of.) In that column, I threw out three proposed trades for The Answer and, lo and behold, my third proposed trade came to fruition - even though I only gave the A.I. for Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess deal a 5% chance of happening.

With NBA free agency kicking off at 12:01am EST Wednesday and drumbeats from the media to the fans getting louder and louder for the Nuggets to make a big move for a big guy, I will present four possible acquisitions/trades that the Nuggets should seriously consider for this offseason. Could I actually call one of these right again?

Before jumping into this new round of proposed deals, let's do a quick recap of the Nuggets dreadful salary cap situation. As detailed a few weeks ago, nine players - including the broken down Steven Hunter and the non-Nugget Antonio McDyess - are already on the books for about $68.7 million. Just $2.8 million shy of the NBA's projected luxury tax threshold of about $71.5 million. And that doesn't account for re-signing Linas Kleiza for $2.7 million (it should be noted that the Nuggets have already made their qualifying offer to Kleiza, meaning they can match any offer from an opposing team), Chris Andersen for about $4 million and Ty Lawson for about $1.2 million. (Note this doesn't include re-signing Anthony Carter and/or Dahntay Jones.)

Add all that up, and for just 10 active players the Nuggets are staring at a $76.6 million payroll. And that's with no veteran backup point guard (like A.C.), no veteran defensive two-guard (like Dahntay) and, most importantly, no "big" man as the columnists, bloggers and fans universally believe the Nuggets have to get to keep up with the Lakers and Spurs. For the purposes of this exercise, let's conservatively estimate that the Nuggets add another $3.5 million in payroll to fill out a 14-man roster (three NBDL-type guys making about $750,000 apiece plus a re-signing of A.C. or Dahntay at around $1.3 million), and the Nuggets projected payroll, pre-tax, would be about $80 million, or $8.5 million over the tax line (meaning Kroenke would have to pay out an additional $8.5 million to the NBA). Note that the Nuggets get back $2.25 million from their record sale of the 34th overall pick which will lessen the pain somewhat from the tax payment, making Kroenke's total payroll costs for 2009-10 - for players only - could amount to $86.25 million. Yikes.

Even with A.C. and/or Dahntay (two key pieces to the Nuggets 2008-09 success whether you want to admit it or not), I have the Nuggets finishing third behind the Lakers and Spurs and tied with the Trail Blazers. Oh, and before we forget, thank you Yao Ming for possibly missing much of 2009-10 or the Nuggets might be fifth in the West.

Given this salary cap mess, how do the Nuggets get back into the conversation alongside the Lakers and the Spurs? Nuggets coach George Karl has already said that the Nuggets roster as-is can improve, implying that they can return to the conference finals or perhaps make their first ever NBA Finals with the roster as-is (assuming Birdman is re-signed). While in theory that's possible, I don't trust it will happen. I already brought up my concerns about the Nuggets - including coach Karl - performing with nothing to prove next season. This is precisely why I don't want Karl extended until after the postseason concludes next year. At least one member of the Nuggets has to have the incentive to prove that 2008-09 wasn't a fluke, and whether it's fair or not, that person should be Karl as the Nuggets are under no obligation to extend him now.

As for the players, questions abound. Will Carmelo Anthony play like he did in Games 1 and 2 of the conference finals for 82 games? Will J.R. Smith make the leap from inconsistent gunner to bona fide All-Star caliber shooting guard (after he gets out of jail, of course)? Will Kenyon Martin and Nene stay healthy for two straight seasons? Will a 33 year old Chauncey Billups have another 82-game, 33 minutes per night season in him plus playoffs? Will Birdman play with the same reckless abandon even though he has a fat contract? Will Ty Lawson supplant Anthony Carter as a credible backup point guard? And so on. If you ask me, those are too many questions for an organization to just sit on its hands this summer. If the Nuggets want to compete for a championship, they're going to have to make a big move and be willing to pay for it.

Before getting to these proposed deals, keep the following points in mind...

1) The Nuggets own a $9.8 million trade exception thanks to the A.I. deal. Meaning, they don't have to adhere to the "salaries have to be within 125% of each other" rule to make a deal. In other words, as long as Kroenke is willing to spend, the Nuggets can make almost any deal they want.

2) Any deal the Nuggets make will have to include Steven Hunter (pictured above in case you forgot who he is or what he looks like) and his expiring $3.7 million contract and/or Linas Kleiza, assuming the Nuggets keep him at $2.7 million for next season. Kroenke may be willing to greatly exceed the cap for a winner, but not on top of paying a non-factor like Hunter almost $4 million and Kleiza has to be thrown in because he offers inexpensive talent off the bench.

3) The Nuggets cannot include Nene, their most valuable trading asset not named Melo or J.R., in any deal. And before I'm accused of being "contradictory" for previously suggesting Nene be shipped out for someone like Andrew Bogut, note that I had the Nuggets staying within the tax threshold for any deals proposed in that column. If the Nuggets are to compete with the Lakers and Spurs, they'll need Nene plus a big man. (Unless of course you could turn Nene into Dwight Howard, which will never happen.)

4) I'm not proposing any deals for centers making more than $10 million per season for two or more seasons. This eliminates names like Bogut or Amare Stoudamire or Emeke Okafor or Andris Biedrins or Tyson Chandler, etc. The only way the Nuggets could get a guy like Bogut or Okafor and not be in luxury tax hell would be to part with Nene, which doesn't make the Nuggets better than the Lakers or the Spurs. And no one is taking K-Mart's contract until 2010, unless he's packaged with Melo or Smith - neither of whom is getting traded.

5) All of these trades involve teams that are either cash strapped or have owners looking to shed payroll for one reason or another. For example, when writing this I tried to find a way for the Nuggets to acquire Joakim Noah from the Bulls as a fifth possible deal, but the Bulls don't have any contracts bad enough (plus Noah makes next to nothing and has become very valuable) nor are they hurting financially enough to save a few million on a Hunter-for-Noah deal.

With that, I present four possible deals for the Nuggets to consider, in no particular order of preference...

Hunter and Kleiza to the Grizzlies for Marc Gasol and Greg Buckner

Why Memphis Would Do This: By drafting Hasheem Thabeet, the Grizzlies are signaling that Gasol won't be their center of the future. Moreover, with Juan Carlos Navarro vacating Memphis as soon as he could, Ricky Rubio refusing to even workout for the Grizzlies and brother Pau purposely taking games off to get himself traded, it's clear that the Grizzlies organization has worn out its welcome with basketball playing Spaniards. Plus, the paella in Memphis stinks (ok, I made that up). The bottom line is don't be surprised if Marc wants out and wants out now. But while Gasol might be unhappy and/or be on the market as a result, Hunter and Kleiza won't be enough to get him, hence where former Nugget Greg Buckner comes into play.

Why Denver Would Do This: Bringing in Gasol is a no-brainer for the Nuggets for several reasons. First, Gasol would fit in perfectly with what the Nuggets really need right now: a low cost, young, tough low post presence. Second, and you'll read this repeatedly as you review the other trade proposals, Gasol's acquisition would allow Nene to focus on just being a power forward, his natural position. And third, Marc would relish going head-to-head against big brother Pau when the Nuggets face off against the Lakers. Reacquiring Buckner - beyond the need to do so for salary purposes - actually makes sense, too. Not only does Buckner know the Nuggets' "system", but his defensive presence would alleviate the need for the Nuggets to re-sign Dahntay. (I'm not assuming for a second that Buckner is the player that Dahntay has become, but there's no way the Nuggets would be able to pay both shooting guards.)

Why Memphis Wouldn't Do This: If you caught ESPN's Chad Ford on his recent appearance on "The B.S. Report with Bill Simmons," he said that Grizzlies "GM" Chris Wallace - as a result of getting fleeced in the Pau Gasol trade - won't make any deals unless it's deemed he is the clear winner. Therefore, Wallace might insist on throwing in salary cancer Marko "Hot Wife, Bad Contract" Jaric in any Marc Gasol trade, rather than Buckner. However, since Jaric's inexcusably high salary would be too rich for the Nuggets blood, I believe Wallace would be amenable to doing this deal with Buckner thrown in, and take back Kleiza to make the salaries match up.

Why Denver Wouldn't Do This: If the Nuggets had to take back Jaric to make it work, forget it. Also, while a Gasol/Buckner for Hunter/Kleiza deal is basically a wash financially in year one, the Nuggets would be on the hook to pay Gasol and Buckner almost $8 million combined in 2010-11, forcing them to move K-Mart before the final year of his contract or they'd really be in tax hell.

Likelihood: 15%

Hunter and Kleiza to the Cavaliers for Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Why Cleveland Would Do This: By acquiring Shaquille O'Neal, the Cavaliers have a $68.3 million cap number for 10 active players, three of whom are named Tarence Kinsey (who?), Darnell Jackson (who?) and Jawad Williams (who?). By jettisoning Ilgauskas' $11.5 million one-year salary and taking Kleiza in the deal, they'd have $5 million to play with plus an extra scorer in Kleiza, something they desperately need.

Why Denver Would Do This: Even though Ilgauskas isn't a banger inside, the Nuggets desperately need a legit seven-foot center to free Nene up to play his natural position of power forward. If Nene could play the four spot healthy for an entire season, he might become a top ten power forward. Moreover, Ilgauskas can reliably hit an open mid-range or even long-range jump shot, something none of the Nuggets current big men can. Having Ilgauskas on board would actually spread the floor, rather than clog up the middle.

Why Cleveland Wouldn't Do This: Shaquille O'Neal is old and injury prone, and the one-two punch of O'Neal plus Ilgauskas gives Cleveland a great insurance policy on O'Neal and the best center tandem in the NBA.

Why Denver Wouldn't Do This: Bringing in Ilgauskas would cost Kroenke an additional $5 million, or $10 million total including the luxury tax payment that would come with this deal. Also, Ilgauskas isn't the interior rebounder the Nuggets badly need and you just know Ilgauskas - who's had a long stretch of healthy seasons - is due for an injury-riddled campaign.

Likelihood: 5%

Hunter and/or Kleiza to the Clippers for Marcus Camby

Why the Clippers Would Do This: This should be pretty obvious. Camby never fit into the Clippers' "system" and the Clippers are committed to Chris Kaman, thanks to his audacious contract, whether they like it or not. Plus, a Camby-for-Hunter straight up deal would save the Clippers almost $4 million. If Kleiza was thrown in, the Clippers would save only $1.25 million, but they would have more depth.

Why Denver Would Do This: Don't do a double take because, yes, I'm suggesting the Nuggets consider bringing back Marcus Camby. Just think about the positives. First, being in the final year of his contract, you know Camby is going play in almost every game and play hard for one more contract to close out his career. And keep in mind that with reduced minutes, nagging injuries and a bad situation Camby still put up 10.3 ppg, 11.1 rpg and 2.1 bpg last season. Second, he already knows the Nuggets' "system" and intimately knows all the players. Camby even played with Chauncey in Toronto in 1998. Third, as you'll see with all these proposed deals, Camby's presence frees up Nene to play power forward exclusively. Fourth, with Birdman coming back, Camby and Birdman could split the center position with 20-plus minutes apiece, guaranteeing good energy from each when they're on the floor. Fifth, even Camby naysayers have to admit that we were robbed of the Camby-K-Mart-Nene-Melo front line combination that could have done some serious damage in the West had they been given the opportunity to play together consistently, which never happened due to injuries.

Why the Clippers Wouldn't Do This: Kaman has been injury plagued and given that Camby will be miraculously healthy this season, why trade a solid backup center?

Why the Nuggets Wouldn't Do This: We heard rumblings on Camby's way out of Denver that he wasn't the selfless, team-first, defensive stopper that he was purported to be. At first I thought this was Nuggets management's way of spinning the trade, but I later heard from reliable sources that Camby allegedly cared more about his stats and his shots than what was best for the team. And the proof that the Nuggets were a better team without Camby was right in front of us all season long in 2008-09, both offensively and defensively. Plus, if Kleiza isn't included Camby would cost the Nuggets $4 million more than Hunter, forcing Kroenke to shell out $8 million to bring him back.

Likelihood: 5%

Hunter and/or Kleiza to the Pacers for Jeff Foster

Why Indiana Would Do This: To shed even more payroll in advance of the 2010 free agent class becoming available. Foster is owed $6.1 million this season and $6.7 million in 2010-2011. If Kleiza was thrown in, Indiana wouldn't save anything except their reputation for having at least six white players on their team at all times.

Why Denver Would Do This: Foster isn't your average, every day Stiff. He's actually pretty tough (just ask Melo's hand), can finish around the rim and, like Ilgauskas and Camby, his arrival would free up Nene to play power forward the entire game. Foster certainly wouldn't be afraid to mix it up inside with Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, Tim Duncan and so on and use his six fouls to their fullest extent. Plus, for next season anyway, Foster makes just $2.3 million more than Hunter.

Why Indiana Wouldn't Do This: I don't see why Indiana wouldn't do this, actually. They're not making the playoffs next year no matter what (unless they get in a time machine and send themselves back to the 1950s...alright, enough with the white guy jokes) and Hunter comes off the books next year whereas Foster is on the books through 2011.

Why Denver Wouldn't Do This: Foster wouldn't be the "big time" acquisition the Nuggets are trying to make, plus that $6.7 million owed to him in 2010-2011 - to go along with big raises due to Chauncey, Melo, K-Mart, Nene and J.R. - would further cripple the Nuggets future cap flexibility. Like the proposed Marc Gasol trade above, acquiring Foster would force the Nuggets to move K-Mart before his final contract year kicks off.

Likelihood: 10%

Of the four trades proposed, my absolute favorite would be to acquire Gasol and Buckner for Hunter and Kleiza. If the Nuggets started a front line of Gasol, Nene and Melo to go along with Chauncey and J.R. in the back court with K-Mart, Birdman, Balkman and Lawson (plus Buckner) coming off the bench, you're looking at a championship caliber team and one of the biggest and best rebounding teams in the NBA. The only weakness there - and I don't make light of this - would be three-point shooting. But maybe there will be a Jon Barry-type gunner available for a minimum contract somewhere.

Although each comes with its own salary cap ramifications, all of the above scenarios are good for one simple reason: they enable Nene to move to power forward. While Nene did an admirable job filling in at center for all of 2008-09, he was perpetually in foul trouble, had trouble getting his own shots and the position clearly wore him down as the season went on. If Karl wants the players he already has to improve, moving Nene to the four spot would be a great start.

No matter what, whether it's Gasol, Ilgauskas, Camby or Foster, or an unrestricted free agent like Wallace, Wilcox or Channing Frye (a threesome we'll get to next) the Nuggets need to get bigger if they're to compete for the Western Conference crown in 2010.

They know this. The question is: how much are they willing to pay for it?

J.R. Smith: Jail bound...

The Denver Post's Benjamin Hochman is reporting that J.R. Smith has just been sentenced to 90 days in jail for causing a car accident that killed his friend in the summer of 2007. According to the article, J.R.'s sentence will likely be reduced to 30 days plus 500 hours of community service.

Not clear in the article (but maybe I'm overthinking this) is when J.R.'s sentence actually begins. For now, I'll assume it begins tonight. And even though it's probably inappropriate to discuss basketball when one man died due to J.R.'s recklessness and another - J.R. himself - is facing jail time, I'll just ask what all Nuggets fans are thinking: could this be a set back for J.R. on the court as well as off? I can't imagine 30 days in jail being good for improving upon your game in the offseason, but maybe he'll be a better person for this in the long run.

From very reliable sources, I've heard two opposite things about J.R. On the one hand, I've heard he has a severe case of "knuckleitis" and it's all but inevitable that J.R. will be involved in another incident at some point. On the other hand, I've heard that J.R. is a super nice, gracious guy who's just a bit shy but easy to talk to and takes direction well (I'm not kidding). We saw both sides of J.R. this past year as he managed to stay "incident free" for much of 2008-09 after some run-ins with coach George Karl that landed J.R. deep in the coach's doghouse at the outset of the season. For what it's worth, I've also heard from the same sources that J.R.'s parents - who sat in courtside two for a few playoff games - couldn't be any nicer, which has always made J.R.'s track record of irresponsible behavior (to say the least) so perplexing.

So while this is a disappointing night for Nuggets fans, it's an even sadder night for the Smith family and the family of Andre Bell, Smith's friend who died two Junes ago. Our thoughts should be with them tonight.


On a side note, I had a lengthy column prepared for tonight on possible offseason acquisitions. This will be delayed until tomorrow afternoon in case anything else breaks on this J.R. story.

The Nuggets offseason: Anthony Carter...

(Photo courtesy of Jonathan Maness)

With the Nuggets trading for UNC point guard Ty Lawson in last Thursday's NBA Draft, the timing couldn't be better to discuss whether or not the Nuggets should re-sign backup point guard Anthony Carter. For an assortment of reasons that will be detailed below, A.C. has become a lightning rod for criticism on this blog and among most Nuggets fans that I talk to, and I've never believed this to be totally fair. So before jumping right to the comments section to voice your opinion on why the Nuggets shouldn't re-sign A.C., here's the case for and against the 10-year veteran.

The Good: Keeping in mind that Carter made "just" $1.26 million last season, there's a lot to appreciate about him. Even with his minutes cut down by six from his 28 minutes per game peak of 2007-08, Carter put up solid numbers in points (5.3), assists (4.7) and steals (1.2). Additionally, as he's done since arriving in Denver right before the 2007 playoffs, Carter never takes a night off and provides an instant energy boost off the bench. Carter may get careless with the basketball (more on that below), but you can never accuse A.C. of not giving his all.

A recent notable example of A.C.'s upside would be his performance against the Mavericks in the second round of the playoffs. In Game 1, A.C. scored 12 points on six-of-eight shooting, had four assists and two huge steals which led to easy layups, sparking a blowout victory for the Nuggets. And in the closeout Game 5, with the Nuggets looking sluggish and allowing the Mavericks to hang around into the third quarter, A.C. came off the bench and had two quick offensive rebound put-backs that the Mavs didn't see coming. A.C. finished Game 5 with eight points on four-of-six shooting to go along with five rebounds and three assists. And he did all that in just 17 minutes of playing time.

Beyond the numbers and never-ending hustle, A.C. has earned the trust of his head coach (more on this in "The Bad" below) and teammates, and has never once complained about his minutes or his role, which has changed from bench warmer to backup to starter and back to backup.

And again, let's not forget the price tag. With five Nuggets - Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin, Chauncey Billups, Nene and J.R. Smith - eating up about 85% of the pre-luxury tax payroll, the Nuggets aren't going to have a multi-million dollar backup point guard like Earl Watson or Steve Blake. $1.26 million a season doesn't excuse Anthony Carter from performing under par off the bench, but it does put his respectable numbers and fairly solid nightly performances in perspective.

(Photo courtesy of Jonathan Maness)

The Bad: I've written a number of times that you can't be critical of A.C. without being critical of the man who plays him too many minutes, insists on playing him side-by-side with another undersized guard and regularly puts him in situations that don't suit A.C.'s skills (like inbounds plays). That man, of course, would be George Karl. Karl's "old school" approach to the game which includes rewarding veterans like A.C. with ample playing time may be admirable to some, but it often bites Karl - and thereby the entire Nuggets team - in the ass. And in regards to A.C. specifically, this has been going on for two straight seasons now.

There are countless examples of Karl inserting A.C. into games in situations that make absolutely no sense. Most recently, Nuggets fans everywhere collectively cringed when Karl would sub the 6'2" (that's generous) A.C. in for Smith to play alongside the 6'3" Chauncey Billups and be asked to defend the 6'6" Kobe Bryant throughout long stretches of the Western Conference Finals. I don't have the numbers on exactly how many points Kobe scored when A.C. was guarding him, but for the second straight postseason Kobe torched A.C. If Kobe didn't score easily over A.C., then he easily found an open man to pass to because A.C. simply can't do anything in defense of Kobe (few can, but A.C. literally had no chance of succeeding). And Karl's most ludicrous decision of the WCF was when he chose the diminutive A.C. to throw in a crucial inbounds pass while being guarded by the 6'10" Lamar Odom in the closing moments of Game 1. We all remember what happened there.

Even though there wasn't a third viable point guard (apologies to Jason Hart) to insert into the rotation last season, Karl played A.C. way too many minutes. For about 10 minutes a game, A.C. is fine. Once you get north of 10 minutes, the results diminish and that leads us to another negative on A.C. - turnovers.

For whatever reason, after he's been on the floor a while A.C. gets a little too comfortable and starts throwing "touchdown" passes that rarely materialize into anything other than a turnover. You know what these passes look like. The Nuggets are on a nice run, they pull down a big offensive rebound, Melo leaks out ahead of the defense and A.C. throws the pass...into the stands. A.C. also has a propensity to throw the ball right to opposing players while trying to make an ill-timed alley-oop pass that his own teammates often aren't expecting. As I stated a few months ago, if J.R. Smith is "The One Man Comeback" than A.C. could be nicknamed "The One Man Turnover." In a quarter of the games A.C. played in 2008-09, he turned the ball over at least three times which basically equates to one turnover per seven minutes of playing time in those games.

I should also call out A.C.'s shooting as another negative. He's a career 40.4% shooter and an even worse 23.8% shooter from behind the arc, but he only shoots one three-pointer a game. To his credit, though, A.C. has been known to make timely jump shots when he shoots in rhythm. But he gets in trouble when he's forced to put up a shot after standing around.

Possible Replacement(s): This question has already been answered somewhat with the Lawson acquisition, but by bringing in Lawson doesn't mean A.C. is gone. In fact, I bet it's quite the opposite. With Lawson set to make about $1.5 million (not too much by NBA standards, even with the Nuggets being capped out), bringing back A.C. for about $1.3 million will fit into the Nuggets salary projections. This doesn't mean the Nuggets shouldn't be looking for a steal elsewhere, however, but to do so we're talking bargain basement shopping.

The "bargain bin" of backup point guards include names of former first and second round draft choices who thus far haven't been able to hack it in the NBA, such as Taurean Green, Mateen Cleaves, Marcus Williams, Dee Brown, Dan Dickau and so on. Williams is my favorite on that list, but I'm not sure what his situation is with the Warriors. Although according to HoopsHype.com, Williams is an unrestricted free agent and the Warriors don't have any team option or qualifying offer rights to him.

So unless the Nuggets are insistent on going really cheap (i.e. less than $1 million for their third point guard), expect to see A.C. back in training camp.

The Verdict: I hate to go against almost all of my readers' wishes, but unless the Nuggets can find a better backup point guard for less than $1.5 million, I'm for bringing A.C. back for three reasons.

First, there's no guarantee that Lawson is going to pan out. While we're all thrilled with the acquisition and see a lot of upside, Lawson could also be added to that list of "short point guards who didn't pan out" like Green, Brown, Williams and Cleaves, all of whom had awesome college careers. To be fair, Green, Brown and Williams are young enough that we could still see them as productive NBA backup point guards. But I think the jury is in on Cleaves.

Second, spending $1.3 million on A.C. is a cheap (relatively speaking) way to pacify Karl who's going to be coach next season whether he gets extended now or not. Karl has publicly stated numerous times that he wants A.C. back, so if the Nuggets give Karl his wish on this roster spot, maybe that buys them a future acquisition to push through over Karl's objections (as he's had in past roster decision squabbles with Nuggets management).

And third, what's wrong with a little backup point guard controversy? A lot of Nuggets fans have voiced their displeasure with Karl already stating that Lawson will need to "prove that he's got to play sometime". But since when should the backup point guard spot - or any roster spot for that matter - just be handed over to a rookie? If by having to compete with A.C. for the number two point guard slot makes Lawson work harder, focus more, play better, etc, than so be it.

That being said, if Lawson performs admirably in summer league, training camp and during the preseason and Karl refuses to play him over A.C. (as we saw with J.R. Smith up until the second half of last season), I'll be the first to call Karl out for such an absurd decision. But before we get into the A.C. vs. Lawson debate, let's see how Lawson performs.

Best case scenario, Lawson turns out to be a solid pro right away, a la Mario Chalmers last season. This means Billups' playing time could be reduced from 35 minutes per game down to maybe 31 or 32, Lawson steps in for 15-18 minutes and A.C. gets a few garbage time minutes.

The first ever Denver Stiffs draft recap...

This blog isn't old enough to have had an NBA Draft Recap column. In fact, prior to tonight you'd have to go back to 2006 to even evaluate a Nuggets draft pick. That year, the Nuggets took Leon Powe 49th and promptly traded him to the Celtics for a future second round pick (which in a roundabout way turned into J.R. Smith via Chicago).

As a result of this prolonged absence from participating in the draft, the post-Kiki Vandeweghe Administration of Bret Bearup, Mark Warkentien and Rex Chapman has been accused annually (by yours truly among others) of being lazy with the draft and not properly valuing it. Having no first round pick in 2006 wasn't the present administration's fault as that pick was dealt to the Nets as part of the Kenyon Martin trade, foolishly orchestrated by Kiki. And having no pick in 2007 was understandable in that the pick had been traded to the Sixers in order for the Nuggets to acquire Allen Iverson (a trade most Nuggets fans - including this one - whole heartily agreed with at the time).

But last year, with the Nuggets having just been swept by the Lakers (who have benefited greatly from deft late round drafting) and sitting at 20th in a seemingly deep draft, reached a new level of disappointment when the Nuggets brass dealt the pick to the Bobcats for an overly protected future first round pick. By doing so, the Nuggets passed on Ryan Anderson, Courtney Lee, Nicolas Batum, Darrell Arthur and Mario Chalmers.

I don't want to dwell on the past but rather give Thursday night's welcome acquisition of Ty Lawson some context. First off, by proactively inserting themselves into a draft that they didn't have their own first round pick in, the Nuggets brass dissuaded some of the fears that they're content to sit these drafts out each summer. The bottom line is that grabbing Lawson now for that overly protected Bobcats pick was a good move. As noted in the initial recap of the trade, Lawson at 18th overall might be a steal. He's tough, he's a winner and he's thrived against the absolute best that college basketball has to offer. As a junior at the University of North Carolina, Lawson averaged 16.6 ppg on 53.2% shooting to go along with 6.6 apg and 2.1 spg. In fact, Lawson impressively never shot worse than 50% from the field in college.

Furthermore, he addresses one of the Nuggets most glaring needs - backup point guard (sorry, Anthony Carter, but your ultimate replacement has arrived) - and (even though this shouldn't be the case) by having a North Carolina pedigree Lawson is one of the rare rookies who might see playing time in Nuggets coach George Karl's "rotation." And lest we forget who Lawson's mentor is going to be. None other than Chauncey Billups, one of the top five point guards in the entire NBA.

That being said, there are some negatives associated with Lawson, as well. He's less than six feet tall, has an awkward and somewhat slow released jump shot and allegedly has a poor wingspan (incidentally, "wingspan" was ESPN's Jay Bilas' favorite word of the night during the draft). Therefore, while his upside might be akin to other successful, short but stocky point guards like Mookie Blaylock, Terrell Brandon or Tim Hardaway, his downside could be akin to Mateen Cleaves or Khalid El-Amin.

My prediction is that Lawson falls somewhere in between the names noted above and works himself into a solid backup point guard for years to come.

Based on the comments that came into the Denver Stiffs Virtual Chat and the ongoing post during the draft, Nuggets Nation seems almost universally behind the Lawson trade (although I did appreciate one of the comments in the chat suggesting he'd rather the Nuggets have just taken Chalmers last year in the first place).

What the Nuggets did with their second pick - 34th overall - however, has proved to be more controversial.

With the euphoria over the Lawson acquisition still lingering, Nuggets fans everywhere couldn't help but notice that when the first round concluded, some notable names were still available: Sam Young, DeJuan Blair, Derrick Brown, Jodie Meeks, Chase Budinger, Danny Green and Nick Calathes. But the name that stood out the most on that list was Blair, who led his University of Pittsburgh team to a number one seed in the NCAA tournament, dominated in the always tough Big East conference and had previously been projected to be a lottery pick. And when the Kings took Jeff Pendergraph at 31, the Wizards took Jermaine Taylor at 32 and the Blazers took Dante Cunningham at 33, the going assumption was that DeJuan Blair would be the next Nugget and the real steal of the draft. And then ESPN cut to commercial and came back a couple picks later. What the - ?!!

Scrambling online to find who the Nuggets picked during the unending commercial break, the Tweets and Virtual Chat posts came in fast and furious: the Nuggets had drafted an unknown Spaniard named Sergio Llull (kudos go to HoopsWorld who accurately predicted this earlier in the day). Since drafting Llull for the purposes of him joining the Nuggets - with Blair and so many others still available - made absolutely no sense, I immediately did some calling, texting, emailing and digging and found out that the Nuggets were just drafting Llull for the Rockets, to whom they had sold the pick (and this no joke) for an NBA record $2.25 million for a second round pick. And from what I'm hearing, that $2.25 million will be applied directly to re-signing Chris "Birdman" Andersen.

On a side note, I can't wait for about seven to nine years from now when the name "Sergio Llull" will completely escape me when asked: name who the Nuggets drafted in the second round of 2009.

So before we make an early call on passing on Blair or the others, we must ask ourselves: does an NBA record sale of a second round pick in order to give a franchise that loses millions annually some financial relief so they may re-sign the best backup center in the league not named Zydrunas Ilgauskus who also happens to be a fan favorite better than taking a flyer on Blair? (How's that for a run-on sentence?)

Given the Nuggets current roster and financial situation, the answer is probably yes for two simple reasons. One, Blair would get no playing time under Karl. And two, the Nuggets needed the financial boost to sign Lawson, re-sign Andersen and possibly make a run at re-signing Dahntay Jones, too.

That being said, I hated seeing the Nuggets pass on Blair, degenerate bad knees or not. I've just always wanted to see the Nuggets be the team that scores one of these undersized but awesome college power forwards who slip into the late first or second round and prove everyone wrong (hence why I advocated for D.J. White last year who did nothing in his rookie year but it's too early to call him a total bust). Of all the draft picks the Nuggets have made in my lifetime, they've never scored one of these guys. Not one. The closest would be Jerome Lane drafted 23rd overall in 1988, but Lane (coincidentally a Pittsburgh alum like Blair) only played five NBA seasons, three-plus with Denver.

Making matters worse, the Spurs of all teams picked up Blair, which means if he's destined to be another one of those Leon Powe / Paul Millsap / Carlos Boozer / Glen Davis "I can't believe this guy slipped into the second round" type power forwards, it will be the Spurs who reap the reward. And making matters even worse, while I hate all things Spurs I can't in good conscience root against Blair who I hope proves the doubters wrong and becomes a solid pro. I feel dirty already.

But at first blush, the Nuggets draft night can be called a success. They picked up a solid backup guard in Ty Lawson who can be plugged into the "system" right away. And they bought themselves additional financial relief to help re-sign their top free agent, Chris Andersen.

Here are some additional quick observations from a busy draft night/week...

...if the Knicks were so hell bent on drafting Stephen Curry, why didn't they make a deal with the Warriors to move up one pick? The Warriors don't know what they're doing and were just going to take the best available player, regardless of position.

...regardless of how former sports writer (there's hope for me after all!) turned TV executive turned Timberwolves GM David Kahn spins it, drafting Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn - both point guards - makes absolutely no sense. I'll give Kahn this, however: when interviewed he takes "The Most Condescending and Most Defensive NBA Executive Award" away from the Nuggets Mark Warkentien. It's not even close.

...by adding Tyler Hansbrough to a team already featuring Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Travis Diener, Jeff Foster and Josh McRoberts, the Pacers have built an NBA Finals-caliber team...for 1951. I know Pacers President of Basketball Operations Larry Bird wants to shed the team's "gangsta" image from recent years, but he's going a bit overboard. Besides, the Jazz would love to have at least half these guys. (Alright, enough with the white guy jokes.)

...The Richard Jefferson trade is great for the Spurs. As magical as the Nuggets 2008-09 run was, lest we forget that an injury-riddled Spurs team tied the Nuggets in regular season wins. If Spurs coach Gregg Popovich hadn't thrown one of his team's games against the Nuggets, the Spurs may have gone to the conference finals in spite of those injuries. Now San Antonio has Jefferson, will likely get Bruce Bowen back and has added Blair in the draft. Unless the Nuggets make a big move, look for the Spurs to reclaim their title as the West's second best team.

...Shaquille O'Neal going to the Cavaliers is great for the Nuggets. Instead of nine Western Conference teams competing for eight playoff slots as we saw last season, only eight will be in the running this year as the sun sets on the Suns. Additionally, a George Karl coached Nuggets team is yet to win in Phoenix and I have a hunch that's going to change next season. Thank you, Steve Kerr, for your two years of outstanding work.

If this week was any indication, we're in for a summer full of deals for the Nuggets and their Western Conference rivals. And fortunately for us, the Nuggets are one of the few franchises that aren't in dire straits financially (thanks to an owner who's willing to spend - up to a point - to keep Denver competitive in spite of incurring those annual losses).

It's an exciting time to be a Nuggets fan.

[UPDATED] Nuggets trade for Ty Lawson / Draft (then sell) Sergio Llull...

NBA Draft First Round Initial Recap...

The Nuggets traded their future, overly protected first round pick via the Bobcats to the Timberwolves for UNC's Ty Lawson. So it looks like we got our backup point guard after all and a damn good one at that. Lawson was almost good enough to come out last year, but stayed in college for one more year, improved his game and brought home the NCAA Championship in commanding fashion. This guy's a winner.

Moreover, Lawson's addition signifies that the Nuggets recognize Anthony Carter is no longer the permanent solution at backup point guard. And, of course, being a UNC "grad," Lawson may actually see some playing time under George Karl whose inherit bias against rookies likely doesn't apply to players from his alma matter. Good trade!

NBA Draft Second Round Initial Recap...

Even though ESPN failed to broadcast it on the air, the Nuggets officially drafted Spain's Sergio (who?!) Llull with their second round pick (as predicted by HoopsWorld earlier today). In other words, the Nuggets got the Spanish point guard NOT named Ricky Rubio and, to add insult to injury, passed on DeJuan Blair in the process.

But - ESPN just announced that the Nuggets have sold the rights to Llull to the Houston Rockets for "cash considerations," meaning they were never drafting Llull for themselves. I'm hearing that the Nuggets got back a substantial amount of cash for this pick, but only time will tell to see a) if that cash enables the Nuggets to make another big move and b) if passing on Blair was a bad decision or not.

Appearing on Denver Sports Radio at 9:20pm MST tonight...

I'll be appearing on Denver Sports Radio's "The Late Night Show with Lenn & Nick" at 9:20pm MST TONIGHT to talk about the Nuggets draft. Hopefully you can listen in!

[UPDATED] Checking in on the mock drafts...

With the mock drafts changing by the hour, here's the latest rundown on the projections for the Nuggets pick - 34th overall - from various NBA Draft "experts" as of 3:40pm MST...

ESPN.com's Chad Ford still has the Nuggets drafting ASU's Jeff Pendergraph.

HoopsWorld is no longer predicting that the Nuggets will draft UNC's Danny Green and now has the Nuggets taking Sergio Llull of Spain. If this comes true, it could be a salary cap play whereby Llull stays overseas for another year or two before coming to the Nuggets.

NBADraft.net is now calling Gonzaga's Josh Heytvelt to be drafted by the Nuggets at 34. Now this guy has potential to be a true Denver "Stiff" in the classic sense of the word according to Doug Moe!

5280's Robert Sanchez wants to go on record saying that the Nuggets will draft Missouri's DeMarre Carroll, citing owner Stan Kroenke's and his son Josh's favoritism towards Mizzou players.

And the guys at DraftExpress now have UCLA's Darren Collison falling to the Nuggets at 34. Could Collison be 2009-10's version of Mario Chalmers?

And of course, the Post has still not made a prediction nor have they given us any up-to-date draft coverage. I'm still not even sure they're "covering" the draft.

According to published reports, the Nuggets didn't work out any of the above mentioned players except Collison. But as mentioned in Part 2 of the Denver Stiffs Draft Preview, that doesn't mean the Nuggets won't draft them.

2009 NBA Draft Preview: Who will be the next Denver Stiff? (Part 2 of 2)...

Now that we've set forth the rules for drafting in the second round, let's consider who the Nuggets should/could actually pick up on Thursday night. What makes the Nuggets pick - 34th overall - so intriguing is that they're in position to pick up a first round caliber player, a la a Mario Chalmers from last year or a Glen Davis from 2007.

This happens for a couple reasons. First, a lot of teams that draft late in the first round purposely select foreign players they know won't be eligible to play in the NBA immediately - i.e. so they don't have a first round salary on the books for the coming season. And second, teams drafting late in the first round have the same propensity to gamble on high risk, often no reward prospects as teams drafting in the second round. So you see a lot of unknown foreigners or big men with "tremendous upside if he puts in the work" taken late who never materialize into decent pros.

Therefore, the draftees who get the shaft and get sent to the second round tend to be the "tweeners", "hybrid guards" and "one-dimensional" shooting guards we discussed in Part 1 of this Draft Preview. If you'll pardon the Nuggets-related pun, could there be gold to be had in the second round if mined properly? According to the various mock drafts out there, the answer is yes. So let's first look at who the Nuggets themselves have been working out and then - after reviewing the mock draft forecasts, the rules for drafting in the second round and looking at the Nuggets needs - we'll make some predictions and recommendations (assuming the Nuggets don't trade the pick)...

According to HoopsWorld.com and NBA.com, the Nuggets - along with a host of other NBA teams - worked out 21 college and foreign players from June 1-3 in Oakland. Among those who worked out for the Nuggets, the following players of note could be available when the Nuggets draft 34th on Thursday night (note that when I say "could be available," I'm basing this off of the mock drafts according to ESPN.com, DraftExpress.com, NBADraft.net and HoopsWorld.com)...

Nick Calathes - Guard, Florida
Omri Casspi - Forward, Maccabi Tel Aviv
Dionte Christmas - Shooting Guard, Temple
Darren Collison - Point Guard, UCLA
Wayne Ellington - Shooting Guard, UNC
Taj Gibson - Forward, Arizona
Eric Maynor - Point Guard, VCU
Patrick Mills - Point Guard, St. Mary's
A.J. Price - Point Guard, UConn
DaJuan Summers - Forward, Georgetown
Marcus Thornton - Shooting Guard, LSU

In addition to that select group of players, the Nuggets allegedly brought in an additional 15 players for a private workout in Colorado Springs last Friday and Saturday. (On a side note, kudos to fellow Nuggets blogger Roundball Mining Company for putting out the list and it deserves asking: why didn't The Denver Post publish this online? Unless the Post was sworn to secrecy by the Nuggets organization or published this list in their print edition only, this is unacceptable "coverage" of the Nuggets. I might have to - gulp - imitate a real journalist pretty soon if the Post continues to under perform with their Nuggets coverage.)

But of those 15 players recently worked out by the Nuggets, almost none are projected to be draft-worthy at all, with the following three exceptions...

Lester Hudson - Guard, Tennessee Martin
Curtis Jerrells - Point Guard, Baylor
A.J. Price - Point Guard, UConn

Now let's apply the rules for drafting in the second round, and see who the Nuggets should be considering...

Rule #1: Draft a guy who contributed to meaningful wins at a major college.

Almost all of the players in question fit this description, but certainly Collison, Ellington, Price and Summers would be at the top of the list in terms of having experienced big time, high pressure games on the grandest of stages and against the best possible competition short of the NBA or the Olympics. I'd throw in Mills, as well, who has had the invaluable experience of playing in the Olympics (more on that below).

Rule #2: If you're going to go international, make sure you've seen the player play in person.

Looking at the workouts only, it seems as though the current Nuggets brass may have learned from the mistakes of their predecessors and are staying away from international players who didn't play college basketball in the US. And having Casspi on the list above is a stretch as all the mock drafts have him going late in the first round and well ahead of 34.

Rule #3: Put a premium on work ethic and character.

I can't speak to this on any of the players above. But if the Nuggets are doing their homework right they're investigating each of their prospects work ethic and character thoroughly. This would include talking to former coaches, college teammates and opponents, family members and trying to gather as much information as possible about a player's character during the workouts themselves. The Nuggets have done a good job moving away from Jailblazers 2.0 and morphing into a team that the Denver community could proudly get behind. Whomever they draft on Thursday (again, if they actually draft) should continue that process of putting character and work ethic over raw talent. I don't want to see another player even close to resembling DerMarr Johnson in a Nuggets uniform ever again.

Before getting to my pick, let's do a quick overview of the Nuggets needs and the reality of this player getting into the rotation. Needs-wise, the Nuggets should be looking at backup point guards and backup power forwards. While it would be great to score a seven-footer in the second round, that's wholly unrealistic. Furthermore, Nuggets head coach George Karl rarely - if ever - plays late first round or second round rookies at all and especially if they're perceived as one-dimensional shooting guards (see Wafer, Von). So that probably eliminates players like Calathes, Ellington or Thornton being drafted by the Nuggets.

The only chance a new Nuggets draftee has of seeing some playing time under Karl is if he fills an actual need. So unless a "you'd be a moron not to draft this guy this late" like Tyler Hansbrough or Chase Budinger miraculously falls into the second round of the draft, the Nuggets should be all point guards all the time when pick #34 comes due.

According to the mock drafts I've been studying, the point guards shake out (on average) as follows in order beginning with the most preferred: Maynor, Collison, Mills and Price. According to Denver Stiffs rules for drafting in the second round, Maynor would actually be least favorable as he didn't play against premium competition in college. But since Maynor is universally projected to not be available by 34, this will likely be a moot point.

That leaves us with Collison, Mills and Price but like Maynor, Collison is almost universally projected not to be available. So between Mills and Price, who would you prefer to see in a Nuggets uniform in 2009-10? Even though I received an impassioned plea from Connecticut-based Denver Stiffs reader Andrew Porter (who writes the blog TheUConnBlog.com) on behalf of Price and Price was the only player to be worked out by the Nuggets twice this month, I like Mills. I know he's undersized by NBA standards and I must confess that I didn't see him play much at St. Mary's. But I did get to watch him play for his Australian national team against "The Redeem Team" in the Olympics last summer and was quite impressed. In their quarterfinals matchup, Mills put up 20 points going head-to-head with Jason Kidd (not saying much), Chris Paul (impressive) and Deron Williams (equally impressive). And supposedly he's been making waves at the pre-draft camps with his quickness and work ethic. Plus, this blog has a number of loyal readers from Australia who I know would be thrilled to have an Aussie playing NBA basketball in Denver.

Maybe the Nuggets will get lucky and find Collison - who shot a lot better than Mills in college and dished out more assists - on the board. But if Maynor and Collison are gone and Mills hasn't been selected, Denver Stiffs is endorsing Mills to be the Nuggets next backup point guard.

And now that I've done all this work, the Nuggets can trade the pick...

2009 NBA Draft Preview: Who will be the next Denver Stiff? (Part 1 of 2)...

For last year's NBA Draft Preview in which the Nuggets were set to draft 20th overall (their first first round pick since 2005), I set forth a detailed set of rules for drafting late in the first round for the Nuggets to adhere to. All that work and research went to waste when the Nuggets jettisoned their first round pick to the Bobcats for a future first rounder. After the Nuggets made the trade, I accused management of being lazy as I've always believed - and still believe - that if you play your cards right, there are great steals to be had late in NBA Drafts. In hindsight, the trade was simply part of the Nuggets overall mission to get below the luxury tax threshold (a 20th pick costs about $1.3 million in their rookie season).

Well before the 2009 offseason began, and with pay raises on the horizon for Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin, Nene, Chauncey Billups, Chucky Atkins and J.R. Smith for 2009-10, the Nuggets didn't even bother teasing us with almost drafting in the first round this upcoming Thursday. Instead, they shipped out their 2009 pick along with Atkins to the Thunder for Johan Petro many months ago.

So for the fourth consecutive draft, the Nuggets will be sitting on the sidelines in the first round. But - a ha! - we get to speculate about their second round pick, 34th overall.

Since the Nuggets season concluded, rumors have abounded that the organization is trying to move Steven Hunter and his (aghast!) $3.7 million contract along with this year's second round pick and/or a future draft pick to a willing taker. But until that actually happens, the Nuggets are scouting possible draftees who could be on the team's roster come opening day.

Like last year, I'll break down the Draft Preview into two posts. The first (i.e. the one you're hopefully still reading) will break down the rules for drafting 34th and the second post will serve up possible draftees based on those rules.

First off, let's do a brief overview of recent Nuggets second round picks...

2008: Without a second round pick last year, the Nuggets acquired Chicago draftee Sonny Weems in a complicated four-team deal that included the Trail Blazers and Knicks.

2007: No second round selection.

2006: The organization excited Nuggets fans everywhere by drafing Leon Powe with the 49th overall selection, and then broke our collective hearts when they promptly traded Powe to the Celtics (and as well as Powe has played in a Celtics uniform, he most unfortunately hasn't been able to escape the Nuggets power forward curse).

2005: Then Nuggets GM Kiki Vandeweghe drafted Axel Hervelle (who?!) 52nd overall. I had to look up who Hervelle was/is because I don't even remember that pick. And while you can't really criticize late second round picks too much, it should be noted that by drafting Hervelle, Kiki passed on both Amir Johnson and Marcin Gortat, violating my second round rules which will be outlined below.

2004: No second round selection.

2003: Kiki cements his resume as an expert in sniffing out second round Stiffs by drafting Sani Becirovic (again, who?!) 46th overall, passing on (I hope you're sitting down) Maurice "Mo" Williams, James Jones and Kyle Korver.

2002: With the 32nd overall pick, Kiki begins a trend of blowing second round selections by drafting Vincent Yarbrough two spots ahead of Carlos Boozer.

The jury is still out on Weems as well as the drafting acumen of the current Nuggets regime of Bret Bearup, Mark Warkentien and Rex Chapman because, well, they haven't really drafted anyone. But why did Vandeweghe bungle the second round so badly? Because he violated the three rules of drafting in the second round (several of which are similar to the rules for late first round selections outlined last summer)...

Rule #1: Draft a guy who contributed to meaningful wins at a major college.

Who falls to the second round? "Tweeners" (power forwards presumed to have NBA small forward height), "hybrid guards" (combo point and shooting guards, typically a shoot-first guard in a point guard's body), and streaky "one-dimensional" shooting guards. But if such a player learned how to win at the college level, chances are he could make a solid pro. Check out some of these recent solid second round picks that fit into those categories but played winning college basketball at major programs...

"Tweeners": Eduardo Najera (38th overall, 2000), Brian Scalabrine (34th, 2001), Bobby Simmons (41st, 2001), Carlos Boozer (34th, 2002), Jason Kapono (31st, 2003), Luke Walton (32nd, 2003), Trevor Ariza (43rd, 2004), Brandon Bass (33rd, 2005), Ronny Turiaf (37th, 2005), Steve Novak (32nd, 2006), Paul Millsap (47th, 2006), Leon Powe (49th, 2006), Carl Landry (31st, 2007) and Glen Davis (35th, 2007).

"Hybrid guards": Eddie House (37th, 2000), Gilbert Arenas (30th, 2001), Earl Watson (39th, 2001), Flip Murray (41st, 2002), Steve Blake (38th, 2003), Willie Green (41st, 2003), Mo Williams (47th, 2003), Chris Duhon (38th, 2004), Travis Diener (38th, 2005), Daniel Gibson (42nd, 2006), Ramon Sessions (56th, 2007) and Mario Chalmers (34th, 2008).

"One-dimensional" shooting guards: Michael Redd (43rd, 2000), Roger Mason (30th, 2002), James Jones (49th, 2003), Kyle Korver (51st, 2003), Von Wafer (39th, 2005) and Chris Douglas-Roberts (40th, 2008).

Granted, I have the benefit of hindsight and get to cherry pick the best second round steals of the decade. But if you look closely at the names above, you'll see that there are at least three or four solid second round picks per year who have one thing in common: they played at a winning college program - i.e. they knew what it's like to perform on a big stage with a multitude of off-the-court distractions, dealt with tough, demanding coaches and went up against NBA-calibre competition. So rather than draft an international player that you've only heard of, why not draft a proven winner? Which brings me to rule #2...

Rule #2: If you're going to go international, make sure you've seen the player play in person.

I totally understand why NBA general managers take fliers on international players in the second round of the draft. You never know when you've stumbled upon the next Mehmet Okur (37th, 2001), Darius Songaila (49th, 2002), Luis Scola (55th, 2002), Zaza Pachulia (42nd, 2003), Anderson Varejao (30th, 2004), Marcin Gortat (57th, 2005) or Marc Gasol (48th, 2007). But for each of those guys, I can serve up at least five international busts per second round.

We as Nuggets fans know all too well how drafting international with limited information tends to work out. Given that Bernie Bickerstaff never bothered to work out Efthimios Renztias or ever watched him play before drafting him 23rd overall in 1996, or that Dan Issel only (allegedly) gave Mamadou N'Diaye a cursory look before drafting him 26th overall in 2000 (at least N'Diaye played some college ball in the US) or that Vandeweghe (again, allegedly) never worked out Tskitishvili against other potential draftees before drafting him fifth overall in 2002, my suspicion - with admittedly no confirmation - is that Vandeweghe never thoroughly worked out Hervelle and Becirovic, but rather those players were recommended to him by whatever international scouting apparatus the Nuggets had at the time.

Conversely, Scola (and his Argentine teammate Manu Ginobili before him), Okur, Songaila and Gasol had performed well on the grandest of international stages (both World Championships and Olympics), against NBA-calibre competition and in front of NBA GMs and scouts before being drafted by their respective teams.

Rule #3: Put a premium on work ethic and character.

This is a carryover from last year's preview, but I'll reiterate what I said at the time. Which is at the end of the day, a draft-worthy college player with a tireless work ethic and solid character (like a Steve Blake) will figure out a way to be a productive NBA player, even if he's deemed "undersized" or "not the right fit" for his position by the draft pundits. The names listed above under Rule #1 bear this out.

With those rules in mind, before Thursday's draft we'll look at the players who might be available if/when the Nuggets draft 34th.