Sometimes, there's a moment between the realization that something bad happened, and the pain that follows. Take a moment I experienced last Saturday, for example.
I was looking at a pair of shoes I wasn't even planning to buy, but wanted to see the tread pattern underneath. As I flipped the shoe over, it slipped from my hand and started to fall to the floor. Thinking myself exceptionally quick, I reached out to snag the shoe out of midair one-handed, and so had to trap it against myself to keep it from falling.
Sadly, I did so by swinging it directly into my nutsack. Yes, you read that right. I racked myself. Accidentally.
Right after you take one to the jewels, there's a very brief moment in which nothing happens. You literally have just enough time to think, "uh oh" before the roaring in your ears starts and you try to decide if you have to vomit. I stood there, hanging onto the shoe rack and swaying like a drunk person with what I hear was a wry smile on my face.
I picture it very much like the smile Michael Malone gave when the Denver Nuggets were awarded their expected slot in Tuesday night’s Draft Lottery. Not that it was the equivalent of a swat to the yarbles, but Malone’s first reaction was a moment of reflection, followed by a smile that was pained, at best. Malone’s smile may have just been the joy of sitting silently as a camera stares into your “how should I be responding?” soul. The world has certainly not ended, and Malone otherwise seemed fairly pragmatic about the whole thing. There will be a very serviceable player available at seven, as we saw in the same slot last year with the nifty pickup of Emmanuel Mudiay.
What does it mean to a team to get into the lottery? What might it have meant to the Nuggets to have landed at least the three spot this time around? Over the long term, what was the difference to a franchise between the seven and the three? There have been 31 lottery drafts leading up to this one, and with one more tacked on for good measure - and for very good reason - we've got a bit of history to reflect upon. What's been the difference between the players selected in those two spots over 32 tries?
Broken down into four groups, so as to understand how much data there is for the argument.
Group One - Early to tell
2015 - (7) Emmanuel Mudiay vs. (3) Jahlil Okafor
They've both played a season, they've both got potential. I'm really glad for the guy we got, but we'll see who ends up the better player. Okafor had a slightly better first season, statistically, but Mudiay has a sharper learning curve to figure out coming in. My inner homer screams it will be Mudiay. Incomplete. (I)
2014 - (7) Julius Randle vs. (3) Joel Embiid
Randle bounced back from an injury year with the Lakers in what basically amounted to his rookie year on the Kobe tour, and Embiid has yet to se the floor after foot injuries. Randle scores a narrow win for simply getting on the floor. (7)
2013 - (7) Ben McLemore vs. (3) Otto Porter
Porter. Most all of the advanced stats lean his way. (3)
Group 2: The career arc is getting pretty clear
2012 - (7) Harrison Barnes vs. (3) Bradley Beal
Pretty clearly Beal on this one. (3)
2011 - (7) Bismack Biyombo vs. (3) Enes Kanter
This one a much closer call, with a few of the advanced metrics only muddying the waters. Kanter by the thinnest of margins. (3)
2010 – (7) Greg Monroe vs. (3) Derrick Favors
Monroe takes all the important advanced stats in this one. (7)
2009 - (7) Stephen Curry vs. (3) James Harden
As great a matchup as it is, score another one for the little guy. (7)
2008 - (7) Eric Gordon vs. (3) O.J. Mayo
And Gordon makes it a trifecta. (7)
2007 - (7) Corey Brewer vs. (3) Al Horford
Though this one is a no-brainer for Horford. (3)
2006 - (7) Randy Foye vs. (3) Adam Morrison
Morrison was a bust, and Foye has played many serviceable years. Easy peasy. (7)
2005 - (7) Charlie Villanueva vs. (3) Deron Williams
Williams. Hands down. (3)
2004 - (7) Luol Deng vs. (3) Ben Gordon
Gordon had some nice moments, but Deng outpaced him in overall metrics by a fair margin. (7)
2003 - (7) Kirk Hinrich vs. (3) Carmelo Anthony
Even Kirk Hinrich just went, "Psh!". Melo by a mile. (3)
2002 - (7) Nene vs. (3) Mike Dunleavy
Nene all day day. Former Nuggets cleaning up on this ridiculous and contrived concept! (7)
2001 - (7) Eddie Griffin vs. (3) Pau Gasol
POW! PAU! (3)
Group 3: Almost everyone is retired
2000 - (7) Chris Mihm vs. (3) Darius Miles
In a year of "who?" vs. "huh?", it's Miles winning in most all categories. (3)
1999 - (7) Richard Hamilton vs. (3) Baron Davis
Both wonderful players, but Davis has some stellar stats. (3)
1998 - (7) Jason Williams vs. (3) Raef LaFrentz
LaFrentz keeps the streak alive. (3)
1997 - (7) Tim Thomas vs. (3) Chauncey Billups
All Mr. Big Shot to keep the threes running hot. (3)
1996 - (7) Lorenzen Wright vs. (3) Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Yikes. Abdur-Rahim continues the streak. (3)
1995 - (7) Damon Stoudamire vs. (3) Jerry Stackhouse
This one was a much tougher call, but Stackhouse by a nose. (3)
1994 - (7) Lamond Murray vs. (3) Grant Hill
Not even a discussion. (3)
1993 - (7) Bobby Hurley vs. (3) Penny Hardaway
The beat goes on, and Penny picks it up. (3)
1992 - (7) Walt Williams vs. (3) Christian Laettner
Laettner's stats speak for themselves in this head to head. (3)
1991 - (7) Luc Longley vs. (3) Billy Owens
And so on… (3)
1990 - (7) Lionel Simmons vs. (3) Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf
And so on… (3)
1989 - (7) George McCloud vs. (3) Sean Elliott
Yup… (3)
1988 - (7) Tim Perry vs. (3) Charles Smith
Who? And still… (3)
1987 - (7) Kevin Johnson vs. (3) Dennis Hopson
KJ breaks the streak, gloriously! (7)
1986 - (7) Roy Tarpley vs. (3) Chris Washburn
Tarpley makes it two… (7)
1985 - (7) Chris Mullin vs. (3) Benoit Benjamin
And another… Not even close here. (7)
Group 4: Retired, but I'M MICHAEL JORDAN
1984 - (7) Alvin Robertson vs. (3) Michael Jordan
This from the season before the draft lottery. Apparently, you could still find a pretty decent pickup at the third pick, if you were so inclined. All due respect to Robertson, it's MJ. (3)
Quite a few years in that mix in which the team with the seventh pick fared better than the club who had picked before them at the three spot. But still heavier to the earlier picks, all in all.
What say you, Nuggets Nation? How much of a difference would the three spot have made to us this year, as opposed to our current slot at seven?
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