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What we learned about the Thunder last week

After watching the Thunder defeat our Denver Nuggets twice this past week, some questions arose. Who better to turn to than a Thunder blogger for some insight? Dogburt, from Welcome to Loud City, was kind enough to provide me with the answers to my five brilliant questions. Click through for the Q&A ...

Star-divide

I watched last week's game in Denver at the Pepsi Center (from the center court nosebleeds) and the one in Oklahoma City from the comfort of my own living room. The one thing I discovered? Neither place is ideal for watching the Nuggets lose - both are equally miserable. The cool thing though, was on the way out of the Pepsi Center there were some fans starting a, "Let's go Nuggets!" chant and that reminded me that while Denver didn't win either game - there are still many reasons to remain optimistic.

With that - let's get to my aforementioned brilliant questions and Dogburt's insightful responses as we emailed about various topics from the likely upcoming playoff match-up that is brewing between the Nuggets and Thunder.

You can read my take on Dogburt's questions over at Welcome to Loud City here.

 

1.) Can Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant carry the offensive load for a whole series? What two other players can average double-digit scoring in a possible Nuggets vs. Thunder first-round series?

Dogburt: With rare exception, a team must have clearly defined roles for its offense if that team is going to go far. As I think the Nuggets have learned this year, a team is at its best when each player understands his role and then works hard to fulfill it without stepping too far past it.

With the Thunder, Kevin Durant has the role of primary scoring option. Here is the career-long challenge Durant is going to face. He wants to play that role, he must play that role, he is ready and willing to play that role, but the problem is that he does not yet know how to play that role on a regular basis. Durant is an elite scorer, similar in a lot of ways to Carmelo Anthony. He can generate offense in ways that few can. However, he does not always utilize his complete toolbox, and when Durant makes himself one-dimensional, he allows defenses to control him.

Here is an easy example for you, the Nuggets observer - remember in these past two games how, any time Danilo Gallinari guarded him, Durant almost always drove the ball to the rim and got good results? Well, that approach is the exception and not the rule. Far too often Durant allows himself to become a perimeter shooter, and this is the weakest part of his game. In the April 8th game, the Nuggets made their runs when Durant was settling for 3-point shots (he finished 2-7). When he's that kind of player, Durant is easy to guard. However, when he is willing to be the guy we saw against Gallinari, he completely changes the way the Thunder attack on offense. He becomes multi-dimensional, and so does the rest of the team.

Russell Westbrook, as we saw, can run hot or cold. He can dominate a game, or he can kill his own team. He can get 30 points, but I'd rather see him get about 18 and be patient with his own offense. I'd much rather see two other specific guys step into the scorer's role. Serge Ibaka, the starting power forward, has turned into a solid shooter with a burgeoning post-game. If he can get his average up into the 15 points per game range, then I think it adds a dimension to the Thunder offense that few teams can counter. Off the bench, James Harden is slowly but surely proving his worth on the offensive end. Like Durant, he sometimes gets a tad bit 3-point happy, and it kills the rest of his game. However, when he becomes a slashing and driving player, he can shred an opponent's second unit.

 

2.) The Thunder played at full strength in both games last week, while the Nuggets played without their starting shooting guard (Arron Afflalo) and without a true big man off the bench (Chris Andersen and Timofey Mozgov). Afflalo and Birdman will be ready for the playoffs - what does that mean to you?

Dogburt: With regards to the Nuggets' role players, two things were apparent in this past week's games:

A)  The Nuggets did not have the rebounding they needed.

Denver is going to have a major hole in its rebounding if Andersen and Mozgov cannot play effectively in the paint. What I had seen in the Nuggets' upset wins over the Mavericks and Lakers was an ability to stay with those two teams on the offensive and defensive glass. Specifically in regard to the Lakers, LA is ranked 3rd in the league in rebounding and relies heavily on maximizing its size inside. When Denver was able to match their rebounding prowess, it mitigated one of LA's major advantages and helped propel the Nuggets to the win.

However, when the Nuggets met OKC, Denver was not able to control the rebounds in the same way, and this fact had a great effect on their second chance points and transition game. I believe that Denver had only eight fast break points in each game. Not only does this rebounding underperformance take away points, but also it slows the game down so much that Lawson's and Felton's quickness is greatly lessened.

In a seven game series, I'm sure that Nene and Martin will probably have about the same number of rebounds as Perkins and Ibaka. However, the difference was that OKC has excelled with its secondary rebounders getting big games as well. Without Andersen and Mozgov helping out on the glass, Nick Collison was able to grab eight offensive rebounds in the last game, and in the April 5th game Kevin Durant had nine defensive boards. Without Andersen, I don't know if Denver has any other big bodies to use to even out this rebounding advantage for the Thunder.

B)  The Nuggets did not have the outside shooting they needed.

I know that Denver relies on its 3-point shooting both in transition and in the drive-and-kick half-court game to generate its league-leading offense. Without Afflalo, Denver did not get much out of this major part of its offensive game. I don't think I need to tell you how badly Wilson Chandler hurt the Nuggets in the last two games. He was a step beyond irrelevant - he was actively damaging the Nuggets' offense. There were a number of times where he was left wide open in the corner for open perimeter shots and most of them missed badly. The Nuggets never made OKC pay for leaving him open.

Also, it seemed like J.R. Smith never really got his offense going. We both know that he's a streaky shooter that can easily get you 20 and occasionally 30. However, he seemed completely out of rhythm for the last two games, and I honestly don't know why. What hurt his game even more was a rash of missed free throws, which could have potentially gotten him back in the shooting groove.

I think Denver needs to have that outside spot-shooter who will make OKC pay, and perhaps Afflalo can give it to them. Otherwise, the Thunder will continue to concentrate their defense on the interior and try to take away the drives and post play.

 

3.) How do you feel the Thunder played in the two games vs. Denver this week? Did we see the Thunder at their best?

Dogburt: I think this question can be broken down into the offensive and defensive components.

From an offensive standpoint, I don't think you saw the Thunder at their best, but I also don't think that the Thunder fans have seen the Thunder offense at their best most of this season. The reasons are varied: they're still young, they have a propensity to get sloppy, they're not a great passing team yet, etc. So really, the question is, did we see the Thunder as good as they're going to be this season? To that, I think we did see flashes of what makes their offense good.

In the first game, Russell Westbrook struggled early and the offense was out of synch. The guys that stepped in were the Thunder bench. In the second half, Eric Maynor led the charge to re-organize a broken offense and push the Thunder to a double-digit lead. What other teams should know is that if you're going to beat the Thunder consistently, you had better have a very good bench, because OKC's is not going to lose leads (and in fact they often add to leads). In the second game, what you saw was a much better spreading around of the offense. Durant is of course a guy who can get 40, but for the team to be truly great, he only needs about 25 and have everyone else get double digits. I think that the offense's ceiling is around 80% of what their capacity should be. However, I don't think they're going to max it out this season.

From a defensive standpoint, I think Denver got a pretty good look at a defense that is learning to become dominant. In those two games, you saw the Thunder hold the Nuggets to about 13 and 18 points below their season average, respectively. Granted, it is impossible to say how much better the Nuggets could have been had they been at full strength. All we can say is, the Nuggets tried to pound it inside to Nene and Martin, and the Thunder stopped it. The Nuggets tried to accelerate the game, and the Thunder would not let them. I for one am very interested to see what will happen when Denver can add some more offensive wrinkles.

 

4.) We like to talk about coaching at Denver Stiffs. Scott Brooks, a former Nuggets assistant, knows Karl well and the two are very friendly. What do you think of the George Karl vs. Scott Brooks match-up?

Dogburt: First off, let me say that I do like both George Karl and Scott Brooks. I think they are good for their respective franchises and have earned the respect that only comes through winning. I would grade them this way: Karl is a veteran B+ coach. Brooks is a novice B+ coach.

Here is what I mean by my grading. Karl has won a ton of games with a number of different teams, including the Thunder's ghost that still haunts the city of Seattle. He knows how to extract a lot from his team, build a winning franchise, and take his team into the playoffs. That said, there always seems to be moments when his coaching flaws come to light and they reveal themselves at the worst possible times. I hate to bring up this painful memory, but I can't help but think back to the 2009 playoffs when the Nuggets blew their series against the Lakers because they couldn't run basic inbounds plays in Games 1 and 3. Earlier in the season, new acquisition Chauncy Billups even commented that he was frustrated that the team had no inbounds play, and yet Karl never fixed this problem. The lack of repair cost the team a very good shot at making the finals. So it seems like there are always issues like this in Karl's coaching that keep him from getting to the top. Hence the B+.

For Brooks, it isn't fair to compare him to a coach that has over 1,000 wins on his résumé. It probably isn't fair to compare him either to Bulls rookie coach Tom Thibodeau. He's simply a young coach that has a much more limited body of work to learn and coach from, and while he has led his incredibly young team to over 100 regular season wins in the past two seasons combined, you can still see how green he is in some situations. His offensive scheme is incredibly simplistic. He relies a bit too much on Kevin Durant's playmaking ability (which is quite honestly not a great part of Durant's repertoire). His end of game strategy leaves much to be desired. And yet ...100+ wins with the third youngest team in the league.  Memphis cannot boast that, and Minnesota certainly cannot boast that. The guy is good and is going places, but he still has much to learn, just like his impressionable players.

 

5.) Why is the Thunder's arena called "The Oklahoma City Arena"? One my of readers suggested they rename it "The Thunderdome".

Dogburt: Let me just say that, in a world where there are stadiums with the names "Wankdorf"" and "Middelfart," Oklahoma City Arena isn't that bad.

Seriously though, my guess is that the stadium is in a bit of a transition state. It was originally named the Ford Center because of a sponsorship from the OK Ford dealerships. They later changed the name to its present state due to a breakdown in negotiations with the Ford party, and it will likely remain in such a generic state until another sponsor can be found.

A name like the Thunderdome would be pretty cool, since by all accounts the arena can get ridiculously loud. Our own blog's GM said in a recent interview that when the place gets rocking, it gets so loud that you can forget your own name. Here is one possible reason why that is, apart from the rabid fan base - the arena was built without the next-generation state of the art luxury amenities (primarily due to lack of local support for such expenditures). Luxury suites do a great job at bringing in revenue, but the downside is that the stadium loses a little bit of that extra juice when it comes to energy.

I'm personally a fan of the "Loud City" myself, but then again, I'm just a blogger.

***

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nate_Timmons on Twitter
ntimmons73@yahoo.com

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.Great piece. This will come in handy when we play OKC next season, since we’ll be playing the Mavs next week in round one.

Follow me on Twitter - MileHigh33

by BrianD on Apr 10, 2011 9:26 AM MDT via mobile reply actions  

I still think

Denver can beat OKC in the playoffs with a healthy roster. (Almost typed “rooster”).

I do think OKC is going to be the toughest match-up Denver faces in the playoffs. LA and San Antonio are good and won’t be easy, but only OKC has the right answers for our speedy guards and in-and-out game with Nene.

We’ll see who we end up playing, though.

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by Fly Agaric on Apr 10, 2011 10:06 AM MDT reply actions  

I think Denver can beat any team with a healthy roster as long as the Nuggets hit about 75% or more of their free throws, and get as many rebounds as the other teams (which should be pretty easy when Chris Andersen and Mozgov get healthy again)

And I really hope Nene gets his free throw shot back, it’s just been atrocious. Missing 8 free throws without making one is just a game killer.

by AppleSauce on Apr 10, 2011 10:11 AM MDT up reply actions  

free throws..

don’t get me started. this can be a huge problem in the playoffs

by Hidayat on Apr 10, 2011 10:58 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions  

Missing FTs

Is a focus issue. I think Nene will get on track. It has been bad since that SA game for him.
He used to be a 75% shooter and I think that Nene can come back if he keeps his focus on the shot.

Gotta love the haterz. Keep that hate a comin'

by JR15 on Apr 10, 2011 11:00 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions  

Nice interview

Nate interesting.. I think We would beat OKC in 6 if we played them

MOZGOD Enthusiast Member 71
Original Thugget Loyalists Member 71
TyRay Felson for MVP!

by NastyNessy71 on Apr 10, 2011 12:33 PM MDT reply actions  

OKC-Denver is basic..

Gonna be a man-up series. Gonna be about a 5 minute stretch each game where it is decided. If the Nuggets make the shots, the win. If they don’t they will lose. Pretty simple.

Nene will need to figure out how to score.

Ty will need to figure out how to drive and be effective.

And AAA will have to figure out how to play.

Nuggets can win. OKC can win. Gonna be some good games.

by djyoung71 on Apr 10, 2011 12:40 PM MDT reply actions  

Dogburt is excellent, and thanks for the feature, Nate

Yep, Brooks’s offensive schemes are not impressive, and as I’ve written on DS previously, OKC’s end-of-game offense is beyond woefully inadequate. It’s downright embarrassing. That said, I don’t see the Nuggets beating the Thunder if that’s who we draw in the first round. Let’s hope I’m 100% wrong and we take them in five or six.

No. More. Stickyball.

by LongWindedHank on Apr 10, 2011 1:11 PM MDT reply actions  

Hmmm

I think that besides health and FT % we have one more problem… It’s a basic observation but still worth noting… Our thuggets just win more games win they are feeling confident and are able to translate that into FG%… in the last thunder game we missed soooo many shots… Can’t win that way… It’s part thier defense but also the nuggs mental state… I think that FT and FG % recently point to a focus issue … That said I still have my money on the thuggets if we play okc… I really think we can beat them with bird and aaa and some breathing exercises and confidence building games to close out the reg season… WE HOT THIS!!!!

by Bennixio on Apr 10, 2011 2:07 PM MDT via mobile reply actions  

*GOT THIS

Lol…autocorrect…

by Bennixio on Apr 10, 2011 2:08 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions  

Excellent work Nate

Is Dogburt the guy who wrote a piece earlier this season suggesting that the draft order should be reversed? (I.e., the Lakers should’ve been given the first pick in last year’s draft, and the team with the worst record should’ve drafted last.)

"There's no way I would've ever called up Larry, called up Magic and said, 'Hey, look, let's get together and play on one team' ... I was trying to beat those guys." -Michael Jordan

by ParkHillNative on Apr 10, 2011 2:11 PM MDT via mobile reply actions  

Greetings

Yes, that might be me. Earlier this year I wrote the following:

http://www.welcometoloudcity.com/2011/1/21/1944301/nba-franchises-revenue-sharing-and-what-the-league-could-learn-from

The reverse draft thing wasn’t really the point of my post, it was more like just one piece of the overall argument. But that’s a pretty good memory you got there.

www.welcometoloudcity.com

by J.A. Sherman on Apr 10, 2011 7:50 PM MDT up reply actions  

Nate... Props for the creativity, it was a good read

With this last trade(s) for Perkins/Nazr, Thunder is now the prototypical well built champion caliber team. Not likely this year, but……

by TakeFive on Apr 10, 2011 2:15 PM MDT reply actions  

Why

is the OKC arena not called the Thunderdome. I mean thats the most obvious name in sports

by nsink on Apr 11, 2011 8:33 AM MDT up reply actions  

Ignore this. Was supposed to be a reply above.

by KenInCO on Apr 10, 2011 2:34 PM MDT up reply actions  

I think you are boosting your post count...

The way Melo used to pad his rebounding shots, know what I mean?

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by Fly Agaric on Apr 10, 2011 2:52 PM MDT up reply actions  

Good insight...

Completely agree on the rebounding part. OKC has been much better at rebounding since the trade, as have we. It’s not so much Mozgov but more depth + Bird getting back to full speed.

Our defensive rebounding has regressed to the mean a bit, but we need to clean up on the defensive boards. I think the 3point shooting isn’t as big of a deal – if we keep getting open looks we’ll be fine. The issue I saw was that we weren’t getting open looks because OKC wasn’t doubling Nene – who’s passing creates a lot of those looks and they were staying at home on shooters when Ty was driving.

http://www.bluefirepoker.com/blog.aspx?blogid=68
twitter.com/chantech

by chantech on Apr 10, 2011 3:05 PM MDT reply actions   1 recs

Basically..

Ty and Nene need to make the D pay. Step up boyzzzz…….

by djyoung71 on Apr 10, 2011 3:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

haha

theres still a slim chance the okc can get the 2 seed??? crazy

let's go nuggets! who u wit?

by 808inDenver on Apr 10, 2011 4:19 PM MDT reply actions  

Is it crazy to want LA to fall to the 4?

It's Timofey MOZGOD time
Ujiri for MVE
Karl for COY
GALLO!!!

by Phil H. on Apr 10, 2011 8:03 PM MDT reply actions  

LA can't fall to the 4

The worst they can end up is tied with OKC and Dallas and they have the tiebreaker with Dallas, so they’ll be the 3 at worst.

The Colorado Rockies aren't a team, they're an armada.

by free7694 on Apr 10, 2011 8:08 PM MDT up reply actions  

Not true

LA can finish at 55-27 while OKC has 26 losses and Dallas 25. OK this well never happen but that was not the question, is it crazy?

It's Timofey MOZGOD time
Ujiri for MVE
Karl for COY
GALLO!!!

by Phil H. on Apr 10, 2011 8:10 PM MDT up reply actions  

Ok, bad math on my part

That said, I’d MUCH rather see Dallas than LA in the first round

The Colorado Rockies aren't a team, they're an armada.

by free7694 on Apr 10, 2011 8:12 PM MDT up reply actions  

I am really concerned that the injury bug is going to be the difference

in whatever playoff matchup we get in in the first round.

If AAA and Bird and now Gallo and Chandler can’t get healthy, then we’re screwed. Already saw how we handled OKC short-handed.

Note: I am a professional pessimist. With that said though, I think my concerns are objectively reasonable.

Maya: "What are your first impressions of Denver?"
Mozgov: "I must break you..."

by margabelle on Apr 10, 2011 8:27 PM MDT reply actions  

Your concerns are well-founded

We’re going to need to run good with health.

http://www.bluefirepoker.com/blog.aspx?blogid=68
twitter.com/chantech

by chantech on Apr 10, 2011 8:43 PM MDT up reply actions  

Yep.

But considering this is essentially still a new team, I’m not too worried. The future beyond this year’s playoffs looks great, so I’m not too concerned if we lose early due to injuries this season.

Julian from Australia

by j-mac31 on Apr 10, 2011 9:35 PM MDT up reply actions  

Listening to Lakers commentators and OKC commentators from before

They sound identical except one set is a Laker homer and the other is a a OKC homer.
It is crazy how they sound exactly the same though.

Gotta love the haterz. Keep that hate a comin'

by JR15 on Apr 10, 2011 9:36 PM MDT via mobile reply actions  

Anyone watching 30 for 30. About the Knicks / Pacers

"I think I speak for everyone in here when I say: it's playoffs or bust" - Jason Hammel
Our O's are better than yours - Ubaldo, Tulo, CarGo(and the Toddfather)
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by SDcat09 on Apr 10, 2011 9:42 PM MDT reply actions  

Looking at the Schedule...

it’s somewhat possible that we get LA in the first round. They have to face SA on Thursday, which could lead to another loss. Couple that with a loss to Sactown, a win by Dallas, and two by the Thunder, and the Lakers finish as the 4th seed

by Russscot on Apr 10, 2011 10:12 PM MDT up reply actions  

Hollinger Quote

RT @johnhollinger: By the way, odds of Spurs tanking on Tues just went through the roof. Why push Lakers into being second-round opponent?

by nesTo on Apr 11, 2011 1:17 AM MDT up reply actions  

The Key Arena crowd will be rough

They still hate us from 1994, but have a deep love for George Karl. But I definitely think the Nuggs will take the Sonics in 6.

—signed Nuggets fan in Seattle

by ortolan on Apr 11, 2011 9:27 AM MDT reply actions  

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