Free agent targets for your Denver Nuggets
by Nate Timmons on Nov 26, 2011 10:38 AM MST
in Denver Nuggets: News and Opinion
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PrintIt feels so good to write about actual basketball related stuff again. With the 2011-12 season rapidly approaching (Dec. 25th, why that's Christmas Day!), who will the Nuggets be focusing on in free agency? Well, two of their own free agents should be a high priority in Arron Afflalo and Nene Hilario. And with plenty of other holes to fill, Masai Ujiri and his staff will be very busy ...
If you are not prepared for what is about to take place ... let me explain something to you. The NBA season is going to start December 25th, less than a month away, and that means teams have a very limited window to attack free agency and get deals signed. We saw this when the NFL Lockout ended earlier this year, free agents signed deals at a pace Dominic Toretto would happily blow a gasket for ... FAST & FURIOUS! You have to love my continued efforts to force bad Vin Diesel movie references into my articles. Right?
To break this thing down, let's do a couple of things ...
- Free agency will begin December 9th!
- The salary cap will be set around $58 million. The Nuggets currently sit around $28 million in committed payroll ... so $30 million under the cap. It's being reported that teams must spend at least 85% on payroll, so a cap floor of around $49 million will be in place. Denver will need to spend, at least, $21 million on salaries.
- Early reports indicate that the window to match contracts on restricted free agents has shrunk from 7-days to just 3-days! So, if Afflalo signs a deal with the Bulls, the Nuggets would have 3-days to match the contract.
- I'll remind you who is currently under contract with the Nuggets, we'll go over the "in-house" free agents (Nuggets from last season) and I'll look ahead to some guys I think the Nuggets should possibly target. Bear in mind that I have no training in basketball management, but also keep in mind that I'm phenomenal at NBA Jam. Let's go ...
First things first: Who is actually under contract with the Nuggets for 2011-12?
Point guard: Ty Lawson, $1.65M (has an NBA-out with Lithuanian team) / Andre Miller, $7.8M
Shooting guard: Jordan Hamilton, unsigned rookie
Small forward: Danilo Gallinari, $4.19M (has an NBA-out with Italian team) / Kenneth Faried (unsigned rookie)
Power forward: Al Harrington, $6.2M / Chris Andersen, $4.2M / Chu Chu Maduabum (unsigned rookie) he's currently in the D-League
Center: Timofey Mozgov, $2.5M (has an NBA-out with Russian team) / Kosta Koufos, $2.2M
Both Denver rookies, Jordan Hamilton and Kenneth Faried aka Manimal, should have contracts very soon and should be in training camp along with the rest of their teammates. I don't expect any lingering contract issues as the Nuggets are short on bodies and will need the rookies to run a proper camp - and so they don't get left behind with such a rushed learning curve.
The player above that are playing overseas all have NBA-out clauses -and- should be back and in camp on time, so the Nuggets should be good to go there as well. We'll get to the other guys that are overseas in a minute.
And let's all remember that Raymond Felton is now a member of the Portland Trail Blazers following a draft night trade that allowed the Nuggets to acquire Andre Miller and Jordan Hamilton's player rights.
Also something to note, the NBA amnesty clause. This clause would allow the Nuggets to buy-out a current contract. I haven't seen details on it yet and it's just a rumor of being a part of the new CBA for now, but it might come into play with a long term contract that the Nuggets want to get rid of ... the targets are Al Harrington and Chris Andersen. No need to use it on Miller as he's just got one year left. Birdman Andersen is a fan favorite, so I don't see Denver using it on him. I think it'll be used to rid the contract of Big Al or it wont be used at all.
Who is and who isn't coming back: The 'in-house' free agents who were Nuggets in 2010-11
Remember, unrestricted free agent means the Nuggets can't do anything to keep the player in Denver. And restricted means the Nuggets will be able to match any contract offer the player signs with another team.
- Arron Afflalo, SG (restricted): I'm about 99.9% sure that Afflalo will be re-signed and his phone should ring just as soon as the free agency period begins ... and it should be Ujiri on the other end. Let's just hope some team, like the Chicago Bulls, doesn't come calling. My worry will go away once he's inked a deal, I see big things for AAA in Denver.
- Nene, C (unrestricted): The Brazilian is going to be a hot commodity on the free agent market. Who has the money to sign him? Does he care about making decent money or will he go unconventional and go all-in for a title shot? I think the Nuggets have a 30% chance of bringing Nene back - him declining an extension might have been the writing on the wall ... plus he left $12 million on the table by opting out of the last year of his old deal.
- Gary Forbes, G/F (restricted):The talented UMASS product showed that has some NBA skills last season, when he was given a chance to play. He also showed the typical growing pains that a rookie endures in his first season with the best-of-the-best. I think the Nuggets have an 85% chance of bringing the 26 year-old back - Denver needs a backup behind Afflalo in a major way.
- Melvin Ely, C (unrestricted): There is a 0% chance he comes back to Denver, he's currently playing in China with no NBA-opt out and no real NBA future ahead of him.
- Wilson Chandler, F (restricted): There is a 1% chance he lands with the Nuggets this season as he's playing in China without an NBA-opt out. The 1% chance ... if he gets booted from China or if Denver can sign him in March when their season is over. Denver will retain his NBA player rights.
- J.R. Smith, G/F (unrestricted): There is a 10% chance he plays for the Nuggets this season as he's also in China without an NBA-opt out clause. If anyone is going to get the boot from China, it's J.R. Swish - and if he comes back, the Nuggets could really use him and he may want to come back. Strange, but I think it's true.
- Kenyon Martin, F (unrestricted): K-Mart's days with the Nuggets are over, there is a 0% chance he comes back as he's also in China without an NBA-opt out and he publicly burned his bridges with the Nuggets on his way out of town. It was fun Kenyon, some of the time.
For those of you keeping score: I feel strongly that Denver will bring back Afflalo and Forbes. I do not think Nene will be back with Denver, but I've been wrong before.
What are the Nuggets' needs in free agency?
When I think about free agency, I don't just think about what great players the Nuggets could potentially sign. I look at the team and think about various aspects of what it needs. Andre Miller will be the eldest statesmen, but he's not the most vocal leader around. I believe Afflalo will become the team's leader as his work ethic and desire to win just point to him in a Shane Battier type role - with much more on-the-court skills. Chris Andersen is the most tenured Nugget, as he's been around since ... 2008. What I'm getting at is that the Nuggets need to ink a smart veteran or two to show the young guys the ropes, you don't want an Allen Iverson type to lead Hamilton and Faried astray - so be smart and bring in a classy vet to teach the pups.
The Nuggets are also a young team with a ton of salary cap room, so the team shouldn't look to sign any aging veterans looking for one last pay day and they don't want the wrong long-term deal with Gallo and Lawson needing raises soon. So, what are the options? Let's break it down by position ...
Point Guards: George Karl loves to carry a lot of guards. We saw Chauncey Billups, Ty Lawson, and Anthony Carter all get run in the Nuggets back-court in the same year. I don't believe the Nuggets will look too hard for another point guard, but with an aging Miller and aggressive Lawson it'd be wise to have another ball handler with J.R. gone.
Targets:
- Acie Law, Warriors: Hasn't found the success he had at Texas A&M in the pros. A score first guy, who can't score much.
- T.J. Ford, Pacers: Lost his job in Indiana to Darren Collison and will have to accept a backup role somewhere.
- Earl Boykins, Bucks: With Miller back in Denver ... why not Doug Moe's favorite player too?
- Marcus Banks, Hornets: The perfect guy to have on the bench, beware if he has to actually play.
- Anthony Carter, Knicks: A George Karl favorite! Who else wants AAACCCCCCC back? Anyone? No one?
- Antonio Daniels, 76ers: Aging veteran would be perfect if he is willing to accept a role on the bench.
- Earl Watson, Jazz: Thought it'd be fun to put all three former Nuggets point guards on here.
Thoughts: I'm not a big fan of any of the options. Patty Mills is a restricted free agent with the Trail Blazers and while I like his speed, he's probably too small to bring to Denver with Lawson already here. A big guard would be perfect, like another Miller type player. Maybe look at the draft next season.
Shooting guard: With only Hamilton on the roster, the Nuggets really need more guards. Afflalo should be back, but even with him hopefully re-signed, Denver will still need another shooting guard ... heck, even with Forbes back they'll still need another guard. Hamilton is such an unknown that Karl will want management to bring in a proven veteran, but one that is willing to come off the bench as AAA will get the bulk of the minutes at this position.
Targets:
- Jamal Crawford, Hawks: Too expensive and will want to go to a serious contender.
- Delonte West, Celtics: I've always liked him. He's more of a point guard, but he's probably not a guy you want around rookies.
- Anthony Parker, Cavaliers: Reminds me of Afflalo in his demeanor. Great shooter and tough defender, plus he's a veteran who could sign a short team deal to pave the way until Hamilton is ready.
- Caron Butler, Mavericks: Too expensive and will try to find a starting role.
- DeShawn Stevenson, Mavericks: It's probably either Butler or Stevenson in Dallas. A wild man who has a traveling tattoo artist ... Forbes and Lawson got new ink this summer and I bet Birdman did, too. Good defender and three-point shooter, but might be looking for more money after his championship performance.
- Tracy McGrady, Pistons: The Detroit experiment didn't work too well. A one-year deal could help get Hamilton ready.
- Mike Dunleavy, Pacers: Too many injuries, but a good shooter. Defense is suspect, but could help in Denver.
- Shannon Brown, Lakers: J.R. Smith type player with tons of athleticism. He wants more minutes and wore out his welcome in Los Angeles. I wanted Denver to sign him a few years ago; now is their chance.
- Michael Redd, Bucks: A walking injury ... getting out of Milwaukee will be great for him. Fresh start needed.
- Chris Douglas-Roberts, Bucks: Can't shoot, but an athletic guy who can defend and get to the rim.
- Willie Green, Hornets: Always kills the Nuggets, if you can't beat 'em ... sign 'em!
- Nick Young, Wizards (restricted): Tons of talent, head has never been in the right place.
Thoughts: A gamble on Nick Young could pay off if Denver thinks Hamilton is more of a small forward, but tying up money in a restricted free agent might be too risky. I'd love to see the Nuggets ink Anthony Parker; he'd be great for the young guys and can still get it done on the floor as Afflalo's backup for a year or two.
Small forward: Besides point guard, this is probably the Nuggets position with the most depth. Gallo will hold down the starting role as long as he's in a Denver uniform. And depending on how you feel about Hamilton and Faried, you could see each of them getting a lot of minutes here as well.
Targets:
- Al Thornton, Warriors: He has played for the Clippers, Wizards, and Warriors in his short career. At 27 years-old he's still fairly young and can score the basketball. With Thornton, the Nuggets could play Faried more at power forward.
- Shane Battier, Grizzlies: I think Memphis should re-sign him, but with Rudy Gay coming back there may be no point. A contender should jump at the chance to get him, too.
- Thaddeus Young, 76ers: Ready for a breakout season and needs to be getting more playing time somewhere. Was a nice sixth man for Philly, but I don't see him wanting to continue doing that.
- Andrei Kirilenko, Jazz: We'll all be surprised if he signs anywhere besides New Jersey.
- Grant Hill, Suns: The aging vet has a season or two left, but where will he sign?
- Glen Davis, Celtics: I don't know if the C's can afford to let him walk and he's too short for my liking.
- Troy Murphy, Celtics: The sweet shooting lefty is having trouble with the sweet shooting part.
- Brian Scalabrine, Bulls: If it comes to this ...
- Chris Wilcox, Pistons: Had a bright future at Maryland, left school too early. Bust.
- Craig Smith, Clippers: Short, but an incredibly strong player with a nose for the ball.
- Leon Powe, Grizzlies: Former Nugget draft pick (traded on draft night) had a nice career going before a major knee injury derailed him. Might be worth the risk, but not as a reliable starter.
- Kris Humphries, Nets: Was last season's success just contract year play? Risky player, but a heck of a rebounder who could be an asset for the Nuggets and not just their public relations department. Answering divorce questions would probably get old fast for the Nuggets teammates.
- Carl Landry, Hornets: Love Landry's game; a bit short as well. A nose for the ball and an underrated scorer.
- David West, Hornets: The second biggest prize next to Nene for teams in search of big men. The former All-Star will get some strong offers, but his knee injury will slow him down this season.
- Jason Smith, Hornets: Former Colorado State standout had some nice games with the Bugs. Would be a fan favorite, but Birdman has that on lock.
- Malik Allen, Magic: Bring back Tacos ... we want Tacos! Would be a savvy vet for the young guys.
- Darnell Jackson, Kings: Just 25 years-old and has some talent. Would need to come in and earn a role on the team. Probably not a guy you want starting for your squad.
- Greg Oden, Blazers: Biggest risk vs. reward name around. Can he stay healthy? He needs out of Portland.
- Tyson Chandler, Mavericks: Mark Cuban would be nuts to let him walk.
- DeAndre Jordan, Clippers (restricted): Blake Griffin has been talking like Jordan is already re-signed so don't get your hopes up.
- Marc Gasol, Grizzlies (restricted): Memphis can't afford to let him go and as a restricted free agent, they wont have to.
- D.J. Mbenga, Hornets: Lawson can dunk on him in practice every day!
- Shelden Williams, Knicks: I liked Williams' work with the Nuggets last season and was sad to see him go. He could play some backup minutes somewhere in the league.
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GREAT stuff Nate. Wow.......I bow to you
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by Jeffrey Morton on Nov 26, 2011 10:55 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
good read Nate
I’m really hoping we can keep Nene, but if not we might as well play the young guys and save up for next years FA class… No one worth over spending on imo, unless Gasol can be had, but I don’t see Memphis letting him get away either. Whether or not we can contend this year I’m just happy to not be talking about BRI and revenue sharing and luxury taxes and Adam silver and so on, and so on, and so on……
by JBnuggs on Nov 26, 2011 10:55 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
Oh the PF position…… Nene, get your chia pet puff arse here and get ready to play!!
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by Kevin L on Nov 26, 2011 11:19 AM MST reply actions 3 recs
Greg Oden..
would be an interesting target. Obviously, off the chart talent level but the kid can’t stay healthy.
Still, if Denver can’t get Nene, or Gasol to sign I’d be more in favor of going after Oden to a short term deal (two years, with a third year team option maybe).
We need to spend money somewhere to reach the 70% required salary floor anyways.
+1 for Oden
Without Randolph would Gasol be doing what he did last season?
Is he really the intimidating big body we need?
The Oden scenario could either be a heap of teams driving his price up or that nobody wants to touch him. Always seems to be an all-or-nothing scenario with him.
Question, if you signed him to 4 year $24m and he didn’t play for a year but was healthy for the next three, do you take it as a win?
good stuff here
I lol’d when you suggested bringing back Tacos… if that happens I will have to rethink Ujiri’s mental capacity.
by InboundingLobPass on Nov 26, 2011 11:37 AM MST via mobile reply actions
You forgot Chu Chu Maduabum!
How dare you forget Chu Chu!
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
He might be in training camp, but will likely be overseas. But good point, he is technically a Nugget.
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 26, 2011 12:05 PM MST up reply actions
The NBA is back, Yay!
Then you wrote this article and reminded me that I root for the nuggets. Nene is on his way out the door, crap. No one will sign here as a free agent, crap. The new CBA calls for the extend and trade to continue, so teams like Denver will continue to get Melo’d. Crap.
This team looks like crap, crap. Nuggets need to be this seasons version of Cleveland. Facilitate some trades using their cap space, take on a couple of overpaid players in the last year of their contracts to get to the cap floor, and really stink up the joint. Their only chance to ever be good again is to suck really badly and draft a top player.
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by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Nov 26, 2011 11:49 AM MST reply actions
I agree..
With Denver’s cap space, they might be able to net a first rounder for taking on a questionable contract. As long as its not too bad, it could be a good deal for us.
Feels good to talk basketball related stuff again!
My fellow Aussie Patty Mills was playing in the national league in Australia up until about a week ago when he got an offer to join K-marts team in china,so he is off the table. The other two guys that stand put for me is Greg Oden and Marc Gasol, would love to snare either.
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by stan_26 on Nov 26, 2011 12:06 PM MST via iPhone app reply actions 1 recs
Nene...
Come on, big fella, you KNOW you want to be a Nugget.
I know he’ll be in demand, but with the Nug’s favorable spending position, will the Nugs perhaps overpay in an effort keep him around? I’m hoping that the Nugs chance of keeping him are greater than your prediction. Maybe his wife will put the pressure on to stay home in Colorado.
And crazy as it seems, I would like to see JR back too.
by Ski Bum on Nov 26, 2011 12:08 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
I’d like to see J.R. back as well. Not sure that’s good for the team though. The belief of needing to bottom out might prevail to some … middle of the road is not the place to be.
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 26, 2011 12:12 PM MST up reply actions
‘Bottoming out’ depends on the outcome of the Nene situation, won’t it?
JR may be a bad influence on Ty and the new draftees, but his cost should be relatively low. He’s a better value than almost everyone on the list of shooting guard free agents listed above. Plus I’m just dying to see some Andre to JR lob passes, oh yeah!
by Ski Bum on Nov 26, 2011 12:23 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
I would be inclined to agree with you, but there are those who believe Nene is not the answer too.
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 26, 2011 12:42 PM MST up reply actions
Yeah, I'm one of them
I thought the Nugs offer was generous for what he actually brings.
This
They offered him almost 20% of their cap. Offer him more than that and you are talking about Superstar money. I like Nene a lot, but he’s your third best guy on your team, not your best guy, which appears to be what he wants to be paid.
Formerly KS and CS
by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Nov 26, 2011 1:25 PM MST up reply actions
agreed
I would much rather throw absurd money at Marc Gasol and see if the Griz will match than offer Nene more than we already did.
If the Griz say no, save the money for the following summer and get a sweet draft pick.
Can't save the money for next year
We still have to get to 49 mil this year regardless of how Nene plays out.
I wouldn’t be opposed to overpaying someone for one year of work. I.E. throw 10 mil at a one year deal at Oden/David West to eat space. Gamble for next year. We may be active on the waver process however. We’ll have to see.
I think he comes back
He’s the perfect 4-5 player and with the Big guys now available….
New CBA realities may favor the Nuggets even more.
anybody come to mind who’s a better 4-5 player… meaning he’s not out of position at either and plays well?
Oops... as in be careful what you ask for?
Always thought of him as a center but he is a forward-center, true.
He has looked good on the Lakers. They’re comparable but different
style of play. Have to give the edge to Gasol since he plays with the
Lakers and Nene has been hurt a lot.
Guess it makes them both ideal forward – centers. The power seems to fit Nene better but that goes to style.
Too soft to play Center….
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Optimism, pessimism, F*CK THAT; we're gonna make it happen. As God as my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work.
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A Dre and JR bench backcourt would MURDER other teams benches
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by The U.N. Fab Five on Nov 26, 2011 4:14 PM MST up reply actions
This is pretty funny: player tweets about the lockout: http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/11/26/2588077/nba-lockout-over-players-twitter
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I'm sure many of these players could work in GK's system
but I have a hard time getting excited about any of them except Nene
Yes, not an exciting free agent class at all!
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 26, 2011 12:43 PM MST up reply actions
the upside is that I'm pretty excited about the young, core players on this team
I’d like to seem them play and let the team evaluate the situation after the season.
stay smart Urijai
Agreed!
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 26, 2011 12:56 PM MST up reply actions
I agree completely about Nene and Gasol.
If Nene goes elsewhere the the nuggets should at least throw a big offer at Gasol to tie up memphis $$ in him.
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by The U.N. Fab Five on Nov 26, 2011 12:18 PM MST via mobile reply actions
How much will Nene want?
I know he turned down 12 million this season but I wouldn’t give him more then that. Hopefully he will take less for a longer term security. I would offer around 10 or 11 million a season.
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by stan_26 on Nov 26, 2011 12:21 PM MST via iPhone app reply actions
Too much
They offered him $12 million a year and he said no. Dwayne Wade makes $15 million this year. You think Nene is worth 90% of what wade gets?
Formerly KS and CS
by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Nov 26, 2011 1:28 PM MST up reply actions
I agree completely
Nenelooks like an idiot for opting out now he will be lucky to get 10-11. most likely he wont be returning because he will go somewhere for less that has title potential…Miami(MY personal guess)…Dallas(not likely)…
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by The U.N. Fab Five on Nov 26, 2011 4:12 PM MST up reply actions
I could see that
He’s exactly what Miami doesn’t have. Big body, good defender and blocks out well.
If he chose this over the money, who could fault him?
Me
Cause he would be going to a team where he’d be considered number four. Where would the “love” be then. I’d boo him every time he touched the basketball if he played on the Heat.
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by KevinAwesome on Nov 27, 2011 2:42 AM MST up reply actions
can the heat even sign nene!
Methinks cap space says no
Why live life on the edge, when you can jump off?
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by Zachm219 on Nov 29, 2011 10:01 AM MST via iPhone app up reply actions
Only if he signed for the MLE or less
So he’d have to take a massive pay cut. He’s married, no way he could get away with that in the prime of his earnings ability.
Formerly KS and CS
by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Nov 29, 2011 10:49 AM MST up reply actions
Yayyyy
thank God Basketball is back! I am very excited to see what the Nuggets do.
IMO: Nene is gone. AAA will be back at probably 7 mil per thus leaving tons of money to spend on some FA’s. The names I would target are Nate Young, Karl Landry, and Greg Oden.
If Oden is healthy he could be an absolute steal. This is the best time to experiment with a player like this in a rebuild. If Denver could sign Oden at a 2 year deal 4-6 mil per I would do it. Landry is a solid PF and him splitting time with Faried would be a sweet PF combo. Nate Young would serve as the 6th man and is not as athletic as JR but way more consistent and still has the ability to score the most points for your squad in any given night. I think Hamilton will spell Gallo and I really think he will have a solid year for the Nugs and could possibly avg dbl digit points in scoring.
Ty/Dre
AAA/Young
Gallo/H.A.M
Landry/ Faried/Big Al
Oden/Mozgod/Kouf
Not bad… lots of potential but prob no more than a 7th seed in the playoffs if that.
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If Oden is healthy
Have you ever actually seen Greg Oden? He’s on the wrong side of 40.
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by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Nov 26, 2011 1:30 PM MST up reply actions
as long as its not a 6 year
16 mil per deal i don’t care!
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by NastyNessy71 on Nov 26, 2011 10:25 PM MST up reply actions
That man....has been pretty quiet
Haven’t heard anything until just recently.
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he sucks
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by NastyNessy71 on Nov 26, 2011 10:25 PM MST up reply actions
Friend of mine actually ran into Bird in Castle Rock
This of course was back in the summer. Said that Bird said he was in great shape, feeling great, and was pretty amped up about the coming season, whenever it was gonna happen.
by the real stranger on Nov 27, 2011 12:51 PM MST up reply actions
Good read Nate
Can you elaborate on why you think the Nugs chances of resigning Nene are so low? I figured they were much higher for your salient reasoning: “Thoughts: I don’t know what Denver is going to do here if Nene isn’t brought back”. The new CBA won’t change the fact that teams will still have to overpay for big men. They’re just not that many available. Supply and demand. None of the contending teams can afford to pay him much I believe, and I don’t see him signing for say $6 million/yr with a Miami or whoever. I can see the Nugs paying $1mil or $2mill more per year than anyone else because they have to. And it seems he’s open to returning no?
Regardless of what they do with Nene, I think they ought to make a very good offer to any of the 4 available centers, Gasol/Jordan/Chandler/Oden. Seems a win/win. Most likely the Nugs won’t get any of them but you force your Western Conference opponents to overpay their own FA’s. And worse comes to worst, they sign and you overpay a bit for a pretty good (but not great) center, to hopefully pair with Nene at power forward. The rest of the roster works much better if you have a beefy talented frontline. I think all four of those teams don’t want to overpay their centers.
I really like your suggestion of Shannon Brown. That might be tough to swing though if he wants big money or a starting position.
Nene opting out of his contract scared me a bit, although hope was still around for the extension. I don’t think we should dismiss the fact that he felt disrespected by the Nuggets management during the Melo-Drama. We all know Melo was the face of the franchise, but Nene’s consistency (yes, consistency and health) over the past couple of seasons were probably the biggest reason for the Nuggets success. I don’t put a lot of faith into the fact that he’s married to a Colorado woman, he’ll do what is best for his career.
Nene strikes me as a guy who is pretty true to his word. He’s been saying he has enough money and if he’s serious about wanting a shot at the title, I could see him moving on. If he can’t get a guarantee to move to power forward from coach George Karl, that might also play a role in him wanting out. He complained loudly about not liking playing center.
The nail in the coffin to me, for him leaving Denver, was turning down the big extension offered. If his agent was unable to talk him into taking the money (before an unfavorable new CBA was likely to take place) then I really think he’s weighing his options himself and not worrying about money.
All just my take and I could be wrong. Nene is also a loyal guy and it might be hard for him to walk away from his teammates and a staff he’s been working with since he came to the United States from Brazil. Hopefully close relationships, like maybe with Steve Hess, will help keep Nene in Denver. Also keep in mind that Nene wants to retire early and do some community work back in Brazil. The next contract should be his last and he may want to jump at a chance to win now instead of trying to hang around with a contender when he’s 36 or 37 years old.
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 26, 2011 12:52 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Turning down the extension was no big deal to me
People make choices for any number of reasons based on their mood at that moment.
So he wanted to leave his options open, so what?
A lot of time has passed and things have changed and the mood is wholly different.
Some good points
I viewed his opting out as looking to survey the landscape but more to maximize value with his next contract, likely the Nugs. But you bring up some good points. He does strike me as the loyal type too but I guess only his close circle knows which way he’s leaning. If Houston goes beserk though and offers him like $14mil/yr….I guess you have to let him walk.
Regarding getting a guarantee from Karl to play PF, Karl has got to play him there regardless. They’ve got depth at center but no quality depth at power forward. So I think that will be a non-issue….but who knows.
Nene has his deficiencies but if they go into the season with Mozgov/Koufos at center and overpay say a Kris Humphries at power forward with Harrington/Bird/Faried backing up…….yikes. That team has no shot.
TheHouston thing would not jive
With winning a title now. Plus he would have to be a center next to Scola. I see Houston giving him a lot of money, but he has a better chance at a chip in Denver.
I have heard Miami is in the cards, and if they get him even LBJ can’t screw that up (though he will get the credit when Wade and Nene do the real work), but I don’t think Nene would accept a min offer or MLE, that’s kinda offensive.
Given the playing field, I think he will return to Denver, but along with everyone else I hope Karl gets his head on straight and plays Nene at PF.
Gotta love the haterz. Keep that hate a comin'
Both you and jaco make great points
Since we traded for Mosgov and Koufos we should play them. Let Mosgov start. I like Koufos grittiness when he played. He could snatch some rebounds. Nene starts at the 4.
Still, Nene’s s the perfect 4-5 player and I could see him and Faried on the floor at the same time. Faried plays taller and loves to rebound. Nene is great at blocking out. Could be interesting.
Sun Valley Nug...
I hadn’t thought about Nene at the 5 and Faried at the 4. That might work well against certain teams such as the Thunder, Suns, Hornets. Not so well against the teams with good, tall front courts.
I think Nene is a bit of an enigma, hard to gameplan for, and hard to determine the optimal frontcourt mate. With other teams great pairing are one in which one is offensive minded and the other is a defender, protect the rim, rebounder – type. Chandler/Nowitski, Oden/Aldridge, Bynum/Gasol, Howard/Turkoglu, Amare/(needs his parnter), Perkins/Ibaka, But Nene is neither one nor the other. He kind of does everything good but not great. He’s a good banger, decent outside shooter, good rebounder, shot blocker, defender. But he’s not great and any of those things. Most 4’s or 5’s are great at 2-3 of those categories. So who would be Nene’s ideal center? I don’t know, maybe someone who also is good at all five categories. Or possible just a rim protector who can also shoot. They need someone who can spread the floor I think since Nene works down low. Maybe an Aldridge or Ibaka-type of player.
Offering Nene big money only makes sense if they’re going to pair him with someone who makes up for his deficiencies this year or next; and that partner isn’t on the roster at the moment, imo.
Don’t discount Timofey Mozgov’s ability to stretch the floor a little with his jumper. He has nice touch from 15 feet and in. But I agree, don’t want to clog the lane too much as Nene has great post moves (even if he lays it in instead of slamming it home sometimes.)
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 27, 2011 3:58 PM MST up reply actions
Hmm
I think an agent’s job is to filter the player’s loyalties and optimism about his own team and view the landscape with an inbiased eye. And in this case would likely see that Denver is in that dangerous place of being just good enough to think they’re a contender when they aren’t. On paper, you have good young players in Lawson and Afflalo and Gallinari and Mozgov. But what helps me cleanly judge my team: compare them to other players at the same position. Lawson’s good but he’s going against Rose, Westbrook, Paul, D Williams, Wall, Rondo, and Nash every other night. Afflalo is good but he’s going against Kobe, Wade, Joe Johnson, Monta Ellis, Ginobili, Jason Terry, Ray Allen, Harden, etc..
And you can do the same for Galinari. Mozgov is still a project.
Realistically, the team as currently constructed has SOME shot of beating the Thunder/Lakers/Mavs, but it’s pretty damn low. Point being: Nene probably doesn’t think a championship is right around the corner in Denver. If that’s the case would he take say… $2million more per year from Houston or another non-contender with cap room? Dunno.
Nice post.
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 27, 2011 3:59 PM MST up reply actions
I would love to see Delonte REDZ West
and he could solve both back court issues as he could take time at PG and SG. The guy has had his problems yes, but by all accounts he is a fantastic and loyal teammate. I point you to the recent SLAM article on him: http://www.slamonline.com/online/the-magazine/features/2011/09/the-real-mr-delonte-west-guns-gloria-ball-bipolar-and-all/ If you can’t like him after reading it, you’re nuts!
I’m also a huge fan of Stevenson. The Nuggets need some TRUE GRIT. Carl Landry seems like the less of the evils at the PF position but man, undersized, I don’t know.
It’d be nice if Delonte West could stay healthy, been fighting the injury bug in recent years. I do like him though and his versatility is nice.
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 26, 2011 12:46 PM MST up reply actions
Great breakdown, Nate!
But I don’t like any of the options available. Maybe Landry and Young. But after that … Ugh. Nuggets might be better off playing with why they’ve got and start thinking about 2012 before pissing away cap space on 2011 free agents.
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by Andrew Feinstein on Nov 26, 2011 12:45 PM MST reply actions
Totally agree!
Awful free agent class here. Team needs to think short term contracts and go on the cheap for now.
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 26, 2011 12:55 PM MST up reply actions
Yup
2012 draft class is very deep. If Nene doesn’t re-sign, it’s probably best to just play out the season, get Faried and Hamilton some experience, and hope Anthony Davis falls in our lap.
yeah let's watch the youngins play
and get a sweet draft pick to build on.
Yup, yup agree.
Nate… any idea on the time period for exercising the amnesty clause?
Is is possible they could keep Big Al for salary filler, then exercise the clause?
Wondering if more teams, meaning the Nuggets won’t offer one year deals to
meet salary minimums without locking themselves in. Or two years, if they’re
looking ahead to needed contract renewals.
I haven’t seen details on the amnesty clause as of yet … but it was rumored to be a two-year window. We’ll see what happens.
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 26, 2011 11:33 PM MST up reply actions
Thanks
I’ve since read that San Antonio has pushed for 2 years, but it does
sound like it will be more than two weeks.
If it were two years, then
it opens the door for interesting trades. Team A has couple of crappy contracts so
trades to team B who has no crappy contracts, etc.
i think the amnestied person
must already be on your team. in other words Team A can’t trade a guy to Team B and Team B then amnesty said guy. I believe it’s going to work like that.
Saw this on Twitter today:
alanhahn Alan Hahn
1x usage. Must be pre-2011 contract on current roster. RT @willDavidian: @alanhahn How long does a team have to use amnesty clause?
Translated:
Question: How long does a team have to use amnesty clause?
Answer: One time usage. Must be pre-2011 contract on current roster.
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 27, 2011 4:01 PM MST up reply actions
From what I read
Is that it’s once for the lifetime of the CBA but it has to a contract prior to 2011. So you can use whenever but it must be a contract currently on your books. Not seen any determination if it has to be with a player on your team or just pre-2011 contract.
I would bet if we use it, it’ll be next year on Harrington. This year we’ll need his contract to get to the min tax threshold.
Also with Amnesty players supposedly they will go through a bid process to teams below the cap before they hit free agency. I.E. if Rshard Lewis were to be amnestied we could place a bid against other teams to pay him 4 mil. We’d be liable for that and his previous team would be liable for his contract minus 4 mil. Trying to find the confirmation of that process.
According to Woj
There will be a salary cap floor set at 85% for the first two years of the CBA. Assuming the cap is set at a similar number to last year, that would mean the floor would be around $49 million.
We have nine players under contract for about $32 million (counting Faried and Hamilton). That’d mean that we have to spend close to $17 million to reach the minimum.
Without Nene, that will be difficult to do. I just hope we don’t give out longterm deals to anyone not named Arron Afflalo (assuming Nene walks of course).
Yes sir! Covered that up top and rookie deals are going to be the same as the last CBA so you are right on the money with the Nuggets needing to spend $17 million to get to the cap floor.
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 26, 2011 12:56 PM MST up reply actions
Oops
Dunno how I missed your earlier comment.. I blame it on lack of sleep due to the crazy marathon negotiating sessions that the NBA seems to love.
Also, I thought I read the Amnesty clause differently...
I thought that one contract (that currently exists) would be exempted from the salary cap, not that teams could just ditch a contract.
That would mean that the Nuggs would have even more room to fill the gap.
by NuggBuckets on Nov 28, 2011 12:25 PM MST up reply actions
Nene
Here we go again with all the underrating of Nene. Why is it that the same people that bash the Nuggets breaking the bank for Nene had no problem with putting that kind of money into a inferior player (Melo). Like it or not, Nene’s skill set is much irreplacable by all but a handful of players in the league. If Denver does not sign Nene, all hopes of being anything greater than a 11-16 seed go out the window.
He’s definitely worth a short term max money contract, or a long term ~12mil contract.
I don’t think everyone realizes how GOOD this team could be if they just keep Nene. Anderson, a more experienced Mosgov, and Nene is quite the front line. As much as we love Martin, Faried provides more of what the Nuggets need and will be healthier.
More experience for Lawson and Aflalo plus the addition of Andre Miller is an improvement. There is the loss of Smith and Chandler, however I don’t think that’ll be a problem with Hamilton and whomever the Nuggets could sign with the money left over.
The bottom line is, the Nuggets have a real chance to be a VERY good team for a long time, or they can just fade back into obscurity and their young talent (Lawson/Aflalo/etc) leave once their contracts are up… They are at a crossroads right now, and it all hinges on the big Brazillian.
nene's got Iegit skiIIs, gasoI and deAndre show some abiIity but it's on and off.
re sign jr and nene, chandIer shouId be traded for a 1st round pick, tank season for a shot at drummond, and maybe karI Ieaves if the team is bad, and things arent so fun.
Chandler isn't uder contract
And I don’t think JR comes back as long as Karl’s here.
sign and trade
Chandler, if it’s still allowed under new CBA.
he will come back eventually
at that point he should be signed and traded.
Dang, on rare occasions it just posts before intended
Not sure a half a season was a good judge of his value
but admittedly I never fell in love so I have nothing against trading.
I'm not hating on his
game or anything like that. I just don’t think he really wants to be in Denver and I was pretty disappointed with his playoff performance.
Gamble on Oden?
Crouching moron, hidden smarta**
Optimism, pessimism, F*CK THAT; we're gonna make it happen. As God as my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work.
"This team is going to win a Super Bowl at some point."
Masai Ujiri, Brian Cashman: Magnificent Bastards
Oden
I have a feeling that a lot of teams will be doing this, driving his price up. Which will of course make it a much bigger gamble. I could see doing it ONLY if they re-sign Nene.
Top priority is getting the gang back here.
Crouching moron, hidden smarta**
Optimism, pessimism, F*CK THAT; we're gonna make it happen. As God as my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work.
"This team is going to win a Super Bowl at some point."
Masai Ujiri, Brian Cashman: Magnificent Bastards
If there is a season to tank
It’s certainly this one.
The key is to hit the guy in the jaw really hard before the other guy does it to you.
by FreeLightningLee on Nov 26, 2011 2:10 PM MST reply actions
Nene Likes Denver no?
I thought Nene really liked Denver, as in living here and being part of our community. Is that not a reason (Melo never really liked us-that’s what I’ve come to accept) to stay? Or at least to up the possibility from 30% to 50-50?
It could easily be 50/50 with Nene or even more. Just my opinion on what I see playing out. I hope I’m wrong!
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 26, 2011 11:35 PM MST up reply actions
It's very simple with Nene. If you read the interviews with him after the Nuggets tried to sign him
he, in so many words, felt he had been disrespected by the Nuggets. I’m not sure that has anything to do with the amount of money. It’s similar to the situation with AAA and him playing footsie with the Bulls. Nene felt like he wasn’t made a priority. I think Afflalo thinks the Nuggets want him, but want him “cheaper” so they waited till after the new CBA.
There’s going to have to be some serious mending of fences with the Nuggets free agents. This has more to do with hurt feelings and pride than it is about money.
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Time heals all wounds
They say… and regardless how serious it may have been or not…
So much has changed now. I firmly believe it’s like hitting the reset button
Everybody now has a refreshed view and thoughts.
For AAA maybe
I think we should just wave goodbye to Nene…that ship has sailed.
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by Jeffrey Morton on Nov 26, 2011 3:08 PM MST up reply actions
To where?
I can live without him, but who’s going to love him more than the Nuggets?
Grrr…. he’s always under appreciated by stats that aren’t kept. Nobody in the league
does a better job of blocking out the other teams best Big. Where’s the stat for that?
Only if the ball bounces his way always
He’s busy keeping the other big away which often leads to others scraping the
rebound. Partly how Melo got so many.
Hope you are wrong...
But suspect you may be correct.
Still, Denver should try hard to try to keep him. It’s going to be interesting to see who we are able to sign as we clearly will have to sign someone.
Think frontcourt depth is the biggest issue if he leaves.
In part I agree
That it’s about the process and he felt a bit disrespected that they were more of the wait and see approach.
But my gut tells me he was looking for a longer deal at a higher amount. Any good agent could see he’ll be one of the few in demand with multiple suitors looking for an impact player. Create a bidding war and maybe you get that 14 million a year you want.
I’m very much of the mind set Nene can be a great 2nd or 3rd piece. But if he’s our main focus for the team we’ll be prone to let down. He can play but the players you build primarily around are the ones you can count on for every game. We all know that’s not Nene. If we sign Nene, keep space open for next year to make a push at a top tier free agent. Else we’ll be stuck in the 40-50 win range with all the cap space gone.
China....
Theoretically, what would happen if Chandler, Smith and/or Kmart left China regardless of the legal consequences. It’s not like they’ll ever have to go back to China. Would the legal fallout be insurmountable either for the NBA, the teams, or the players themselves?
Maya: "What are your first impressions of Denver?"
Mozgov: "I must break you..."
Let me see if I get this?
Only one Max player, right? So just who is it that is willing to pay
Nene more than the Nuggets? Nuggets still have his bird rights, No?
Another team can offer a little more, but the Nuggets can go the extra year?
I’d prefer starting from scratch with the front court, excepting the two
young guys, Gallo and Faried, but that can’t be done. Now if you can
guarantee a top 3 pick in next years draft, that’s entirely different.
We must also consider
Who will fall victim to the amnesty rule. They all become unrestricted free agents as far as I can tell. That gives us more options. I’ll use Baron Davis, Rashard Lewis as examples as the rule will most likely be used on them (should’t go after them just merely using them as examples) other guys that could be handy for a season could be bought out.
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by stan_26 on Nov 26, 2011 4:41 PM MST via iPhone app reply actions
On that note
Does any one think that Portland would use the amnesty rule on Roy? I’ve heard a few Portland fans suggest it.
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by stan_26 on Nov 26, 2011 10:29 PM MST via iPhone app up reply actions
They’ll definitely have to look into it. You can’t have a minimal role player making max type money. I could see him re-signing there if he does get bought out. Good kid, horrible situation.
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 26, 2011 11:37 PM MST up reply actions
He's signed for about 3 more years
Portland won’t be over the luxury tax. So unless they want to make a move for next off-season they won’t get cap space this season for it. (they’d be at about 52 million + a few cap holds of a 58 million cap)
Much like us, I forsee next year they make a move like that if they ditch Roy. This year I doubt we see it. As well next off-season I bet we see Richard Jefferson amnestied.
They aren't immiediately free agents
Interesting wrinkle for the amnesty guys. They go through a modified waiver system. It is open to teams under the salary cap, like the nuggets. Teams that want an amnesty player can bid to pay a portion of his contract. So if he was due $12 million, the bidding team might agree to pay $2 million and the old team pays the balance. Whichever team bids the most gets the player.
It could prevent the Miami’s of the world from getting these guys on minimum deals.
Formerly KS and CS
by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Nov 28, 2011 12:12 PM MST up reply actions
Underrated Players
Great article Nate. I think Marcus Thornton and Samuel Dalembert should be added to the list of potential free agents. Thornton is restricted, but the Kings are not looking to spend much more right now until they get their arena situation resolved. Dalembert would be a perfect compliment to bring along Mosgov a little bit more slowly and he’s a double-double guy which would be a great asset for our frontline.
yeah Thornton would be a great 6th man
for the Nuggets. We wouldn’t even remember JR.
I’m not a big fan of Thornton’s game. He’s all offense (to some, so is J.R.) and little D, unless he has matured in Sacramento. He sure can score though. I don’t see room for Dalembert on the Nuggets’ roster. Would be a savvy vet, but I don’t see it as a good fit.
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 26, 2011 11:39 PM MST up reply actions
Isn't this the same Thornton that makes Melo turn into a selfish pouty 3-20 shooter?
Maya: "What are your first impressions of Denver?"
Mozgov: "I must break you..."
The once promising trio of Marcus Camby, Nene, and K-Mart is just about completely gone.
No, it’s definitely over. Looks like Birdman will have to teach the rooks everything….God help us. Lol
"I think every quarterback should believe they’re the best. Do I think there are better quarterbacks than me? Possibly. But would I take anyone else with the ball in their hands at the end of the game? I don’t think so." - Ben Roethlisberger-
Nene might be back ...
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 27, 2011 4:03 PM MST up reply actions
Good read from Ken Berger
http://ken-berger.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/11838893/33514559
Some of the CBA details and how they affect free agency.
My favorite part, high cap floor…so we won’t have an NHL style (cough Avs COUGH) situation on our hands
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Wow... (and thanks for a great link).
A bit of a read for me who’s not that familiar with all these nut and bolt policies.
It appears that the owners didn’t give up that much, or that they were easy compromises
assuming they were making a season saving agreement and not just part of posturing
for who know how much longer.
I thought the Melo rule was a bit of an over reaction by owners but it seems going forward the rules will help though not entirely prevent.
Re: Qualifying offers enhanced based on performance. What the hell is there to complain about here. Really, what team abhors paying for those that deserve it? Not much of a player win and a much better system.
Contract lengths: Here’s the biggest improvement. Most likely most good players care little about other players who are busts. Reasonable (and easy) compromise that works for all.
I hope the nuggets are smart enough with their large cap space.
I remember in 2009, the pistons doled out pricey contracts to second-tier playesr that ate up their most cap just because they could. Then the following year was the star free agency class of 2010. (facepalm)
This.
If we can’t retain our own free agents, then I hope we go to short-term contracts, to fill out the rest of the roster. This is one of the worst free agent classes in recent memory. Although if ten or so players get amnestied, it will become a better class
trade with cavs
harrington&wc for sessions,varejoe&jameson
let's get real busy
This franchise cannot afford even one season of poor attendance and a loss of credibility with the fans—-so let’s get real busy!’
We’re competing with the Heat for Nene and should pull out the stops to keep him. If that fails, Carl Landry is a must get and we will still be too short to beat the best teams in the playoffs. Optimistic about Fried’s future but Shelden Williams-type low cost veteran is needed for toughness, board backup.
If Affalo stays, Anthony Parker looks like the perfect veteran role model at backup. Young from Washington is a real talent; not right for this young team.If, God forbid, Affalo leaves, a serious push to get Shannon Brown away from the aging Lakers is in order.
I say no, no, no to J.R. Smith and his mountain of baggage and bad ju ju.
Harrington is a bad big contract that should be traded for young, untested talent or money for future acquisitions if needed.
Let's take our time and wait
After reading the article and the comments I do not think this is Denver’s year. Too many new faces, not enough talent in free agency. I think Denver should play it smart and safe and play its young talent to give them some experience this year — forget winning — and aim high for next season.
I know Karl doesn’t like rookies, but I’ve got a man-crush on Faried, so I’ll be sad if I don’t see him pulling down double-digit boards this season.
"No one likes a beggar slightly overdressed"
forget winning
What? If that’s the case, I won’t even bother watching. Losing crushes player’s motivation to want to get better. Tanking the season does nothing but lose the team’s spirit and the lack of fans means less money earned to even sign good players.
"I think every quarterback should believe they’re the best. Do I think there are better quarterbacks than me? Possibly. But would I take anyone else with the ball in their hands at the end of the game? I don’t think so." - Ben Roethlisberger-
You tell me who the Nuggets should pick up in free agency?
Nate’s list has no one who could make the team better.
Of course I want to win. But I don’t see that as a realistic option. Wait til next year.
"No one likes a beggar slightly overdressed"
Back-to-back-to-back
3 games in a row will be played in order to get to 66 games this season. Every team will have at least one, with some teams having 3. I could take a guess as to who has only one…
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by stan_26 on Nov 27, 2011 2:26 PM MST via iPhone app reply actions
That's just stupid
I don’t see the point in cramming so many games in. Just do 50. Three games in a row is brutal. And I’m not talking about the toll on the players, but on the fans who have to watch inept basketball.
"No one likes a beggar slightly overdressed"
I agree 100%
Tough on the players, but also for fans. We don’t want to watch a bunch if tired guys get smashed on the third night of 3 in a row to a team coming off 2 days rest. The NBA needs to learn quality over quantity!
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by stan_26 on Nov 27, 2011 4:28 PM MST via iPhone app up reply actions
However...
The NBA will never see it as quality over quantity. More games makes more money.
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by stan_26 on Nov 27, 2011 4:30 PM MST via iPhone app up reply actions
RT @GForbz3 Damn I’m 26 lbs over weight, outta shape, missed 547 shots out of 600 n my hands n feet r dirty. Guess I’ll start Monday to get ready lol
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GForbz3 Gary Forbes
Aight Aight I joke I joke. Im in the best shape of my life right now… Been on my #Grustle all summer… But my nails r dirty tho…
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by Army of Nugs on Nov 27, 2011 6:09 PM MST up reply actions
Man I love Forbz haha
"J.R. SMITH! WITH NO REGARD FOR COMMON SENSE!" - Future Kevin Harlan Quote
"They're two-deep at the crazy position!" - Kenny "The Jet" Smith.
the first couple weeks of basketball will be UGLY and a lot of injuries
JR sign somewhere else, so we can get a guy who is not so Bi-polar.
Trade Chandler and Felton for another shooter.
by SD_Nugget_Fan on Nov 28, 2011 10:22 PM MST up reply actions
AAA, Nene, and Dunleavy
If the Nuggs sign these three, they have had a awesome FA season. AAA wil be an anchor for the next 5 years. Nene is moved to PF where he averages 16-10 and reaches his potential. Dunleavy gives the Nuggs a veteran presence, an outside shooter and a versatile 6th man. Oh, and please unload Fat Albert.
by ACEIII on Nov 27, 2011 7:29 PM MST via mobile reply actions
Dunleavy
Would be a good shooting coach, but I wouldn’t want him playing. If we are going to replace JR with a SG, we should sign Shannon Brown. I am also happy with Forbes getting a shot at the SG position. I think WC is a legit 6th man of the year if we can somehow get him back.
Again it all depends on what Nene does for who we should sign outside of AAA.
Gotta love the haterz. Keep that hate a comin'
by JR15 on Nov 27, 2011 8:58 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
I just don't really see anyone I really want out there
other than our own guys. If not for that crazy minimum cap floor, I’d support tanking the season. I mean, 2012 is primed for a top free agent market and the best draft class since ’03, and having a high pick plus tons of cap space would be an immediate turnaround.
Alas, I don’t picture us going down that route, and I’m scared we get stuck in the “middle-ground”.
"J.R. SMITH! WITH NO REGARD FOR COMMON SENSE!" - Future Kevin Harlan Quote
"They're two-deep at the crazy position!" - Kenny "The Jet" Smith.
Does no one have faith in Ujiri outside of me?
JPage has turned into a huge “realist”(the word pessimists like to use), and it seems so has most of the site. Can I anoint myself as the new optimism warrior?
I think if we can’t sign Nene, Masai will go into rebuild mode and we can sign free agents/ draft good players.
Have faith in Ujiri/ Kroenke JR.
Gotta love the haterz. Keep that hate a comin'
I have faith!!!
Priority No. 1 has to be Nene and AAA, then we can go after other players. I wouldn’t mind picking up Rashard Lewis if he gets amnestied and we can sign him for 3-5mil a year
I think if we can't keep Nene
we need to go hard after Carl Landry, he does almost everything Nene does, minus some rebounding. He is in his prime and during the one opportunity he got to start, he averaged 18 PPG and 6.5 RPG.
Also we should definitely go after Anthony Parker, great shooter, great defender and a much needed veteran.
The Nene shipped has sailed
Soft as charmin rarely gets double-doubles the only stat he lead in was was steals for centers. I’m over it it’s time to look ahead we need to go young resign AAA,Forbes,Chandler pick up some cheap 1-2 yr contracts. Also our coaching staff needs to just take it easy on these guys it’s going go be a tough 66 games we need to avoid injuries remember these young players are the nuggets future. I say tank it, play the 66 games like there practice and pray for some high draft picks and Amnesty cheeseburger next season.
by tknuckle on Nov 28, 2011 2:43 AM MST via mobile reply actions
Yes, we have a season!!!
Great to be back! Great article, Nate. Howdy Jeff, and a special ciao to my man Andrew.
So here we go: I think the bottom line will be much like adamlouis says: if Nene is a No-no, go after Landry and Anthony Parker, and be SURE to sign AAA.
I would re-sign Will Chandler too, if we ever get the chance. Otherwise, save money and dedicate the season to developing young talent. There are many ways this group could bloom, which I would prefer to tanking.
Go Nuggets!
I like Anthony Parker over Dunleavy
He doesn’t bring any baggage, doesn’t have injury problems and you know what you are going to get from him.
I would still prefer Forbes over Parker, but it wouldn’t be a bad pickup if you get him cheap.
Gotta love the haterz. Keep that hate a comin'
Here's an ESPN article about Nene's "worth" under the new CBA
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-on-5-free-agents-111128/what-top-nba-free-agents-really-worth
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They are all over the place on Nene
From 4 years, $36 million to 4 years, $60 million.
He will be on the very high side of this range. I’m not sure if he is worth it. Tough call.
Man, Oden is the ultimate high risk, high reward player. He could make or break a GM.
Can you imagine he and Nene in the front court? That would be an imposing defensive line. Wouldn’t it be fun to see him in Denver, punishing Portland (and LA)? I wouldn’t bet on it, but crazier things have happened.
One question I have not seen posed
If Chandler were to come back in March. Could we sign him to the QO then and have him count against our cap for this year? Every little piece helps.
hmmmm...good question. I'm not sure how long the Nuggets will retain his rights if he doens't sign the QO
If he signs the QO….then I’m not sure for how long it would apply (Generally Qualifying offers…if re-negotiations don’t take place… are one year) In theory the Nuggets could sign him, but I don’t think his entire salary would count against the cap…only for what was signed (which at that point would be only hundreds of thousands of dollars, not millions)
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by Jeffrey Morton on Nov 28, 2011 11:15 AM MST up reply actions
I think this is unlikely to happen
I’m guessing the Wilson Chandler, or his rights at least, get traded during the season. we have no reason to keep him, he’ll come back sign a pro-rated QO then walk at the end of the season. might as well trade him since he’ll have value to some team even if he only plays a month.
I have seen so much Nene bashing on this site that I think I need to defend him
Sure he doesn’t give us double doubles like we want him to, but he is the most effective offensive post player if we look at efficiency. As we all know after trying to grab another big man, that skillset doesn’t grow on trees.
As was mentioned on the ESPN article, he is also a top 3 defensive center. We will be lucky to find that in the draft or even free agency next year (I don’t know if you guys are smoking the good stuff and thinking we will get Dwight Howard in free agency, cuz the only way he can ever come to Denver is through a trade and not of his own free will). I don’t think Jared Sullinger (atheltic flash, but not a fundamental big man)will be what we need down low either. You have to find a big who relies on fundamentals (a la Tim Duncan), and if we don’t have that, we are screwed. Honestly, Nene is the closest thing to a fundamental big man that I don’t see us replacing for a while, he is a player that comes around once every 5 years because he is more fundamental than athletic.
We already have our athletic bigs in Koufus, Faried, and Mozgov.
Nene boxes out (which would really help Faried) and is a team player. If you guys have noticed, if we run the offense through Nene, we seem to get a trip to the foul line or are very effective shooting the ball. The problem is Karl’s system doesn’t utilize Nene well in the half court, that is why he doesn’t have the double doubles you guys seem to crave (vs. actual effectiveness i.e. Kevin Love can get all the double doubles he wants but he isn’t that great defensively and doesn’t deliver the wins).
I do think Nene is worth near max money and though he isn’t a “star” that people want him to be, he is a necessity if you want to win soon. Otherwise, we may have to wait a few years till we get a big man of similar caliber.
Gotta love the haterz. Keep that hate a comin'
Good stuff man
I also think Nene is key to getting other guys to come here,who wouldn’t want to play with does all the little things that stats don’t show. He also pretty much owns D12 every time we play ORL, what does that say?
PAY NENE!!!!!!!
Is this one of those situations where we should just remain calm and collective
And maybe look towards next year and the years beyond that insted of spending money that could block us from rebuilding. Sometimes teams go into a spending frenzy in situations like this because there is panic and there is something to do again, but sometimes the best teams just wait and look towards the draft and next years free agency class.
On the other hand somebody noted that the Nuggets can’t afford a year of losing and can’t have the Fan Base lose interest. Although, in my opinion a lot of the casual fans lost interest when Chauncey and Melo were traded. Yes us die hard fans will always have interest, but casual fans like Stars, not Andre Millers
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
What happened to the Hope?
I was so pumped about the Nugs and the future of the Nugs down the stretch last year. I was still excited even after their dismal exit against OKC.
Now that hoops is back though and I read Nate’s excellent post about where exactly the Nuggets are, my sense of optimism is tempered by a good dose of reality. Losing Nene would be a huge blow. Losing Chandler and JR to China – flaws and all – is a major net loss.
The Nugs FO was looking brilliant for freeing up all that cap space. Now I’m reading comments on here suggesting that the best option is to lay low this year and hope for a good draft pick and FA signing next year. If that’s the best our FO can do, then I feel like they really screwed up somewhere between the Melo trade and now.
I agree with some of the comments that propose a more agressive spending stance by the Nuggets FO. I’m not advocating overspending on a mediocre free agent (i.e. Big Al) but I’m all for going all in on Nene. And paying AAA well. If we can’t keep those guys happy, Galinari and Lawson will be next to go. And no top-tier FA is going to come to Denver. Spend but spend wisely.
I think Nene is more of a difference maker for his position than Melo is for his. Maybe he is right in feeling disrespected by the Nugs FO. I hope they are working on reparing that relationship and I hope – as Nene expressed one time – that Nene genuinely wants to play out his career in Denver. I suspect he’ll be tempted by a championship caliber team (i.e. Heat) though and would be willing to move for less $.
I agree w/Nate 30% odds of staying. I’m given to optimisim though, so I’m going to leave it all to hope for a minute and present the following scenerio:
C: Mozgoff becomes NBA’s most improved player. Bird stays healthy full season and provides a spark.
PF: Nene re-signs focused and motivated and realizes his full potential as a power forward. Faried provides positive energy and a spark and fans quickly forget KMart.
SF: Galinari breaks out. Named to All Star Team. JR gets the boot in China but returns with adopted Buddhism practices. Focused and deadly from outside. Every night. As an alternative, the Nugs sign Shannon Brown.
SG: AAA locked into long term deal – takes big step offensively. Hamilton proves to be steal of draft.
PG: Secure as starting PG, Lawson develops as floor leader that can create his own shot at will. Miller plays like he’s still 25 years old and is brilliant as the third guard both on and off the court.
Too much to hope for?
by Alaskan4Fat on Nov 28, 2011 3:21 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
Not at all man
I actually think that team can compete too. I don’t know what other people are thinking, but this Denver team sans Melo smoked Dallas in Dallas and was like the last team to do so before OKC or Miami did it in the playoffs. We were always ahead of Memphis (i.e. remember when we smoked them right after Melo was traded).
The Lakers are going downhill in a hurry, the only team that scares me is the Thunder. Again, we were really close in that series and one could argue having Faried, Miller, and Hamilton could have made a difference in that series.
I think we will miss Chandler, but I am also seeing huge potential in Hamilton so we don’t have to worry about that. We will still need a JR type player at backup SG spot which could be Forbes, bug eye Shannon Brown, or JR.
This team has too much talent to fail now. A lot hinges on Nene, and he would have to sacrifice a ton of money to head to Miami (probably get MLE in Miami while he would get near max here…should be a no brainer). I think you can be spot on Alaskan man and tell your Lakers fan friend to suck it when the Nuggets beat them in the playoffs this year.
Gotta love the haterz. Keep that hate a comin'
I like your attitude
Hope you are right. We’ll see. My brother’s a Laker fan. Won’t be hard to find someone to give some grief to if your premonition comes true.
according to Bill Ingram's
weekly chat today over at hoopshype, the Nuggets are targeting David West or Carl Landry in addition to planning on re-signing Nene.
I would be very glad to have Nene back
I just don’t want to overspend for him. Here’s the thing: there is a good chance that the Nuggets will overspend on someone, so why not Nene? At least he is a known commodity, you know?
West and Landry would be OK.
"No one likes a beggar slightly overdressed"
Worst fears would be realized if the Nuggets re-sign Nene and somehow in Landry as well. I think we’d see: Lawson, Afflalo (hopefully), Gallo, Landry and Nene as our starters. Meaning Mozgov might waste away on the bench again and the Nuggets might not take advantage of a no-brainer lineup featuring Nene and Moz at PF and C.
Although, if Mozgov can’t prove to be a starting center, the Nuggets would wisely have a backup plan with Landry in hand. It would be awesome to be able to bring Landry, Faried and Bird in off the bench … that unit would be a rebounding machine!
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 28, 2011 5:36 PM MST up reply actions
Landry and West? Two PFs?
Do they not realize that Nene does not want to play center anymore? Target Chandler and Gasol damn it!
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by KevinAwesome on Nov 28, 2011 5:48 PM MST up reply actions
if i had to choose one
I would go Landry. yes David West has been an all star but he’s coming off major surgery and what’s more, Landry puts up almost the same numbers for considerably less money.
This hopefully means them using the amnesty on hamburgerlar
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by The U.N. Fab Five on Nov 28, 2011 8:13 PM MST up reply actions
Nene was a 10-11 mil player
Now is the prettiest girl in a bar full of ugly. So is being bumped in to the 13-15 range with rumors of max money here or there.
As constructed what else would we need to break our way to win a championship? This free agency crop gives nothing but complimentry pieces. With Nene having the lead. I think of this team next year and spending our space that way…The more I realize the moves for now are the moves that give us little shot for the future.
If we go in to this year with the same team as last year we’d kill in the regular season (just imagine a team with that depth and playing b-b-b). But we’d get to the post season and still have the team that couldn’t score in the 4th and had a hard time getting key rebounds. We’re banking on Afflalo or Lawson or Gallo or Mozgov turning a corner. I don’t see it, I’ve been saying. Make the team alluring to free agents. Realize it’s a small shot that more then likely won’t pan out. If you fail you could get an impact draft pick instead of drafting in the early 20s. I spent to many years of Melo to be content with 4th to 8th seed and playoff failure.
Sorry wasn't clear there
Nene can be a complimentry piece to attract FAs. But we’re going to have to make an impact move either trade, draft, or free agency to get over the top. If we max out Nene we cripple ourselves. So Nene at a cost was my point.
He’s a 10-11 mil player that will get 13-15 million based on market. Can’t cripple ourselves in overpaying him. I don’t see this free agent market as as providing any players that could beat out others players on our roster. Gasol over Mozgov would be better, but not at the price.
Why can't Gallo improve
And be a consistent scorer in the playoffs? That was his first playoff series btw, didn’t our beloved Melo blow chunks in his first playoff series?
So many pessimistic Nuggets fans it’s mind boggling that they call themselves fans.
Not a personal attack remy, I have just seen so much negativity it is surprising. I mean we aren’t the Bobcats, kings, or Bucks, but everyone makes it seem like we are.
Gotta love the haterz. Keep that hate a comin'
I'm not saying he can't improve
I always appreciate objective dialogue. Gallo can improve, but I’m a bit more cynical on his ceiling. Seems like a lot of people want him to be Dirk. Others see him as a Peja type of player. I don’t see a franchise player. He can be a great piece like Nene. I see this team as a very good team, 40-50 wins. But that’s the issue…what pushes us over the hump? Gasol isn’t that player. What ever moves we make will reasonate for the next 4-5 years.
But watching the OKC series reminded me that we have no go to scorer. Nene isn’t that man…As well when we need a key rebound we’re weak on the boards. Interior defense is weak as well. Dwight Howard is the missing piece, he has all those pieces we need. That said, I highly highly doubt we get him. Rather take a swing and strike out then play for a single.
I hope that I’m wrong and that I underestimate this team. But I’d rather see us blow it up and try from scratch rather then see a 4-8 seed with aspirations of making it to the second round. That’s what I see with this team.
So to make a point regarding the negativity. Everyone is tired of stagnation. I don’t want to be the Portland teams of the 90s. We’re not the Bobcats, Kings, or Bucks. But we’re not in the realm of the Lakers, Heat, OKC, and Celtics either.
I could argue
The Celtics and Lakers are going downhill. The only team out West I am scared of is OKC. But we were also close in every game except game 2 where Karl made some questionable decisions. We can handle Miami if we stay big with Nene and Faried.
I think the jury is still out on Gallo to whether he can be a franchise player or not, but I also have faith in Jordan Hamilton. I agree we should tank if Nene is gone, but that is not necessarily a good thing.
I also don’t think D Howard will make us that much better if we switch him with Nene. And yes, Nene is that important. Howard’s offense is off cutbacks and alley-oops and his one on one defense is suspect. He is much better at weak side defense a la Camby. While Nene’s one on one defense is superb.
I have faith in Ujiri so I will be in the minority of Nuggets fans and have hope that this can pan out. I like our chances given how the rest of the West is looking. Just wait for the Lakers to somehow pair Durant with Kobe, and I won’t be speaking with such optimism.
Gotta love the haterz. Keep that hate a comin'
replace big Al with Landry or David West
And KEEP Nene. That would make us a backup 2 away (Anthony Parker) from being a solid contender in the west this season.
Entirely agree
Not looking to trade out Nene for Howard. It’s about stacking him with Howard. If we resign Nene that should be our play (13 mil + Afflalo at about 7, and Forbes near 2 would put us near the min cap required). If we amnesty Harrington next year we’d have max cap space with resigning afflalo and signing Nene. Even have money for Gallo, assuming he doesn’t become the next great thing. The main thing is…if you sign the David West, Jamal Crawfords, and Carl Landry’s of the world. You won’t have that chance.
If we lose Nene. Go to tank mode and get to min salary while using our cap space for salary dumps and picks. Build through the draft rather painfully again.
Boston clearly is shooting this as their last hoorah. Lakers will likely have 2 more years. Either could add a piece and restart the cycle. Knicks and Nets could be on a upswing soon as well. OKC might only have 2 more years, since you know rookies eventually get paid. I just think our construction is very competitive and not championship caliber. I just don’t want us going repeating 2003 getting Andre Miller and talk of getting Corey Magette. The swing for the fences move being Kmart the next year. Those type of moves will keep us where we’re at nothing more.
Have to wait until the 9th I think.
To begin signing/negotiating and trading players.
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by stan_26 on Nov 29, 2011 2:14 AM MST via iPhone app up reply actions
It is really odd that training camp and the signing date start on the same day
Why not open up signing as soon as the deal is signed?
Teams like the Nuggets won’t even be able to run a full practice for days after training camp opens.
There are rumors that it could be sooner than the 9th, but there is a big process ahead to radify the deal.
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 29, 2011 10:45 AM MST up reply actions
I see what you did there
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by stan_26 on Nov 29, 2011 1:25 PM MST via iPhone app up reply actions
haha hello Thursty 2.0
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 29, 2011 3:17 PM MST up reply actions
whereas Thursty just corrects
with me you get the correction AND the insult.
Thus the 2.0 ... a slight upgrade.
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 29, 2011 7:17 PM MST up reply actions
Neither is radify :)
I think you mean raddichio’d
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one guy we need to be discussing is
Thaddeus Young of the 76ers. http://www.nba.com/home/playerfile/thaddeus_young/index.html
he is undersized for the PF but he could be an option. I believe he’s an RFA.
Love that guy!
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 29, 2011 7:18 PM MST up reply actions
Reminds me a bit of Lamar Odom.
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by Nate Timmons on Nov 29, 2011 7:18 PM MST up reply actions
Odom has had a pretty nice career
though you’re right, I guess he never lived up to his hype as the next Magic Johnson
76ers say they'll match a "reasonable" offer for Young
So what should we offer him that they won’t match?
by InboundingLobPass on Nov 30, 2011 3:17 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
I like T. Young a lot
I say, try to get him and another big (Jordan or Humph) for what we would otherwise pay Nene. Good, young, players that you build around.
Reports are Tyson Chandler won't return to Dallas
Should we go get him? I loved the defense and toughness he brought to Dallas last year. Maybe he can do that for us.
Clark is an interesting person worth taking a flier on
he’s going to be a low risk high reward in terms of financial commitment and production. He was a lottery pick just 3 years ago.
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