The Nuggets have been nothing short of dominant at home against opponents playing the second of a back-to-back. After looking at the numbers, their embarrassing loss to the Bucks on Saturday night appears to be more of an anomaly than cause for alarm.
Of the Nuggets 36 home dates thus far, almost half (16 to be exact) have been against opponents coming in on the second of a back-to-back. In those 16 games the Nuggets are 14-2, and prior to losing to the Milwaukee Bucks on Saturday night the Nuggets were undefeated at home against teams playing the second of a back-to-back coming in from the Pacific Time Zone. Throw in the fact that the Bucks had played a double overtime game against a scrappy Sacramento Kings team the night before, and the shock of losing this game (and the bet I made on the Nuggets to cover the spread while in Las Vegas) still lingers today.
The Bucks game remains an anomaly, however, as if you needed that 14-2 record to prove so (the Nuggets other home loss to a team playing the second of a back-to-back was to the Mavericks in late December who had flown in from Memphis, and thus gained an hour).
I suppose it was fitting that the Milwaukee game was even close to begin with, because I wasn't there. You see, of the 10 games I've attended at Pepsi Center this season when the opponent happened to be playing the second of a back-to-back, the Nuggets average margin of victory is 21.9. On my "watch" at Pepsi Center this season, I've seen the Nuggets wax the B2B playing Lakers by 26, the Thunder by nine (and it was never close) and then 29 a few months later, the Rockets by 10 and the Mavericks by 36 among other Nugget victories at the expense of an overly tired and weary opponent. And I'm sure the loyal readers of this site – especially after witnessing that horrid Nuggets loss on Saturday – are sick of me railing against these "unfair fights" when the opponent comes in at 3am only to be slaughtered by the Nuggets. But with the Bucks game put to the side momentarily, is there any other way to look at it?
Wondering if there was any validity to my argument to scrap back-to-backs altogether, or if it's just coincidence that the games I've attended have been walkover snoozers, Denver Stiffs' official statistician Chris Chan has run some B2B numbers for us on seasons past and games played through early March of this season.
According to Chris, of the 228 blowout games played in the NBA through mid-March (blowouts are defined as 10-points or higher margin of victory), 46% – almost half – were played with one team being on the second of a B2B. And of the 377 B2B games played, 27.9% of them were blowouts compared to just 12.8% of non-B2B games ending in blowouts. In other words, a disproportionate number of blowouts actually do happen when a team is playing a B2B. This surprises no one who follows the NBA, but simply highlights the need to eliminate B2Bs – or, at the very least, reduce them and implement schedule balancing – as it's the ticket-paying fans who really get screwed here.
Courtesy of Mr. Chan, here is some data on B2B blowouts throughout the entire NBA from the past few seasons…
2009-10 SEASON
Total Blowouts that were B2Bs: 105
Total Blowouts this season (greater than 10 points): 228
B2B Blowout Percentage: 46.0526315789474
Total Games: 961
Total B2B Games: 377
Blowout Games as a Percentage of B2B Games: 27.8514588859416
Blowout Percentage in non B2B Games: 12.7991675338189
2008-09 SEASON
Total Blowouts that were B2Bs: 194
Total Blowouts this season (greater than 10 points): 508
B2B Blowout Percentage: 38.1889763779528
Total Games: 1231
Total B2B Games: 471
Blowout Games as a Percentage of B2B Games: 41.1889596602972
Blowout Percentage in non B2B Games: 25.5077173030057
2007-08 SEASON
Total Blowouts that were B2Bs: 230
Total Blowouts this season (greater than 10 points): 570
B2B Blowout Percentage: 40.3508771929825
Total Games: 1230
Total B2B Games: 483
Blowout Games as a Percentage of B2B Games: 47.6190476190476
Blowout Percentage in non B2B Games: 27.6422764227642
2006-07 SEASON
Total Blowouts that were B2Bs: 204
Total Blowouts this season (greater than 10 points): 502
B2B Blowout Percentage: 40.6374501992032
Total Games: 1212
Total B2B Games: 469
Blowout Games as a Percentage of B2B Games: 43.4968017057569
Blowout Percentage in non B2B Games: 24.5874587458746
2005-06 SEASON
Total Blowouts that were B2Bs: 195
Total Blowouts this season (greater than 10 points): 494
B2B Blowout Percentage: 39.4736842105263
Total Games: 1230
Total B2b Games: 474
Blowout Games as a Percentage of B2B Games: 41.1392405063291
Blowout Percentage in non B2B Games: 24.3089430894309
In regards to the Nuggets dominance at Pepsi Center against teams playing the second of a B2B, here are those numbers (also provided by Mr. Chan). As you'll see in the data below, the Nuggets have been nothing short of dominant since the 2007-08 season against teams coming into Denver on a B2B. Please note that this data assumes the Nuggets aren't playing the second of a B2B and have had at least one day of rest prior to the game.
2009-10 SEASON
Road Team Playing B2B Wins: 2 out of 14
Road Team B2B Win Percentage: 14.2857142857143
Total MOV: -195
Avg MOV: -13.9285714285714
2008-09 SEASON
Road Team Playing B2B Wins: 1 out of 13
Road Team B2B Win Percentage: 7.69230769230769
Total MOV: -147
Avg MOV: -11.3076923076923
2007-08 SEASON
Road Team Playing B2B Wins: 2 out of 14
Road Team B2B Win Percentage: 14.2857142857143
Total MOV: -158
Avg MOV: -11.2857142857143
2006-07 SEASON
Road Team Playing B2B Wins: 5 out of 13
Road Team B2B Win Percentage: 38.4615384615385
Total MOV: -80
Avg MOV: -6.15384615384615
2005-06 SEASON
Road Team Playing B2B Wins: 2 out of 9
Road Team B2B Win Percentage: 22.2222222222222
Total MOV: -55
Avg MOV: -6.11111111111111
So to reiterate my points mentioned above. The Nuggets loss to the Bucks on Saturday was the rarest of rare defeats and the fans continue to get screwed with boring games when the opposition comes in to Pepsi Center on the second of a B2B. But hey, at least those games translate into Nugget wins. At least 87.5% of the time.
Photo courtesy of AP: David Zalubowski
