2009-10 Nuggets Preview: Predictions and expectations...
by Andrew Feinstein on Oct 25, 2009 9:21 AM MDT
in Denver Nuggets: News and Opinion
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Denver Stiffs takes a close look at what the "experts" foresee for our Nuggets, makes some predictions of our own and sets the table for what's expected by the end of 2009-10.
As if you didn't think I was a big enough loser yet, I'm going to share with you a story from my childhood. When I was a kid, I'd conduct an annual exercise around this time year. I'd have my mother drive me to a few newsstands where I'd buy every possible NBA Preview magazine: Sports Illustrated, Sport magazine (now defunct), Inside Sports (also defunct), Street & Smith's (now owned by Sporting News), Sporting News, Petersen's, Lindy's and even gambling guru Jim Feist's annual NBA Preview. I'd also keep the Denver Post, Rocky Mountain News and USA Today's annual NBA Previews handy, typically written by Mike Monroe, Dave Krieger and David Dupree, respectively.
Once I collected all the magazines and newspapers, I'd create a spreadsheet by hand - I'm 34 years old, so there was no internet or even Microsoft Excel when I was kid - listing all the teams on the X-axis and all the "experts" names on the Y-axis. Then, in the spreadsheet boxes I'd write down the order that the teams were predicted to finish in by number per conference and average them out, thinking this would somehow predict how the Nuggets and the rest of the NBA would finish each season.
Yes, I was a dork and yes, I had way too much time on my hands.
In hindsight, this was a ridiculous exercise because back in the day these magazines had to be printed for distribution so early, that they would often miss key roster moves over the summer. For example, in the summer of 1993 many of these magazines still had Michael Jordan playing for the Bulls, rendering their predictions and forecasts worthless entering the 1993-94 season. Can you imagine reading an NBA Preview today that didn't have Shaquille O'Neal on the Cavaliers? That's what it was like back then. But hey, I was (and still am) an NBA degenerate, and just couldn't help myself.
Had I done this exercise last year, the Nuggets would have averaged just over a nine. Meaning, every so-called NBA "expert" had the Nuggets finished 9th and in some cases 10th in the Western Conference by the end of the 2008-09 season. I (not so boldly) predicted the Nuggets to finish 8th and very much like this year's Rockies and Broncos, last seasons Nuggets proved everyone - including me - completely wrong by finishing second. Seven spots ahead of what the "experts" collectively predicted. And thus, 2009-10 was deemed an incredibly successful season as it obliterated the expectations, which brings me to my next point.
As silly as this exercise might seem, this is how expectations are set, for better or for worse, by the media, fans and organizations. Jobs are kept and lost based on these expectations.
If you remember a while back, I had written a detailed column on what determines a good coaching job and it all came down to expectations. My thesis was simple: a "good" or "bad" coaching job is determined based on whether or not a coach's team exceeds, meets or does worse than what was expected of them entering the season (assuming the team is relatively healthy and management doesn't sandbag the coach by carving up the roster to save money). Hence why I thought George Karl did a great job last season - remember, they far exceeded what was expected of them - and a poor job the season before when the Nuggets were expected to finish second, third or fourth and instead plummeted to eighth in the conference.
So what's expected of our Nuggets in 2009-10? The fans seem to be expecting something between a repeat Northwest Division Title and Western Conference Finals appearance and a second place division finish and a second round playoff loss. When you see Nate and my rankings below, we represent the spectrum of fan with some accuracy, I believe.
But unlike the fans, entering 2009-10 the "experts" are much more mixed on the fate of the Nuggets. I'm seeing them ranked everywhere from second to (egads!) eighth in the Western Conference. But certainly no one is pegging them for 2010 NBA Champions. Here's a rundown of where the "experts" are predicting our Nuggets to finish...
2nd in Western Conference
Bethlehem Shoals, Sporting News
Travis Heath, HoopsWorld
3rd in Western Conference
Jemele Hill, ESPN.com
Chris Sheridan, ESPN.com
Mark Stein, ESPN.com
John Galinsky, FoxSports.com
Inside Hoops Preseason Power Rankings
4th in Western Conference
5th in Western Conference
Chad Ford, ESPN.com
The Baseline, Sporting News
6th in Western Conference
Ian Thomsen, Sports Illustrated
8th in Western Conference
It should also be noted that Chris Colston and Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today, Ken Berger of CBSSports.com and Kelly Dwyer of Yahoo! Sports Ball Don't Lie have the Nuggets finishing second to Portland in the Northwest Division, but don't seem to have made conference predictions yet. And AOL Fanhouse's Chris Tomasson previewed the Nuggets without making a prediction for where they'd finish.
Here are Nate and my 2009-10 predictions for the Western Conference...
Nate's Picks
1.) Los Angeles Lakers
2.) Denver Nuggets
3.) Portland Trail Blazers
4.) San Antonio Spurs
5.) Utah Jazz
6.) Dallas Mavericks
7.) Los Angeles Clippers
8.) Phoenix Suns
9.) New Orleans Hornets
10.) Oklahoma City Thunder
11.) Houston Rockets
12.) Memphis Grizzlies
13.) Golden State Warriors
14.) Minnesota Timberwolves
15.) Sacramento Kings
Andrew's Picks
1.) Los Angeles Lakers
2.) San Antonio Spurs
3.) Portland Trail Blazers
4.) Denver Nuggets
5.) Dallas Mavericks
6.) Utah Jazz
7.) New Orleans Hornets
8.) Los Angeles Clippers
9.) Phoenix Suns
10.) Oklahoma City Thunder
11.) Memphis Grizzlies
12.) Houston Rockets
13.) Golden State Warriors
14.) Minnesota Timberwolves
15.) Sacramento Kings
So there you have it. Between the "experts", Nate's and my predictions and what I've read in the comments on this site leading up to the new season, I think it's fair to say that the Nuggets are expected to finish at least fourth, if not third, in the Western Conference in 2009-10. Finishing fourth also means that at least one playoff series win is expected and hopefully two (i.e. another Western Conference Finals appearance). Anything worse than fourth and a playoff series win will deem the season to be a disappointment, and if the Nuggets somehow (oh please, hope, hope, hope) make it to the NBA Finals, then they'll have greatly exceeded everyone's expectations for the second season in a row.
I can't wait for the season to begin. Go Nuggets!!
Photo courtesy Francis Specker, AP
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Hmmm,
I know we don’t want to play the Lakers in the 2nd round, but would you guys rather face the Spurs or the Blazers?
Its kind of a toss up for me.
I think...
You guys both have Portland and Utah too high. Moreso Utah, but I’m agreeing with Bill Simmons on the T-Blazers a bit although he is bashing our Nugs so I don’t know what to think. Hopefully he’s not right.
Hopefully the Nuggs will be off to a good start by the time Simmons comes to town for his book signing.
Denver Stiffs.com: Defending the sovereignty of Nuggets Nation.
by Nate Timmons on Oct 23, 2009 1:45 PM MDT up reply actions
Simmons said:
Nuggets: 44-38
Blazers: 41-41
That’s only happening if the Nuggets lose K-Mart AND Nene for the entire season.
The Blazers would have to have Roy go down with microfracture surgery on Game 1 for that to happen to them…
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
My Picks:
1.) Los Angeles Lakers
2.) Portland Trail Blazers
3.) San Antonio Spurs
4.) Dallas Mavericks
5.) Utah Jazz
6.) Denver Nuggets
7.) Los Angeles Clippers
8.) New Orleans Hornets
9.) Oklahoma City Thunder
10.) Phoenix Suns
11.) Houston Rockets
12.) Memphis Grizzlies
13.) Golden State Warriors
14.) Sacramento Kings
15.) Minnesota Timberwolves
We aren't THAT bad
The Mavs are starting noted shitty defender Drew Gooden at center. He’s even worse than Damp at the defensive end, but gives them more offense.
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
Right on Nate
I think the NBA world will be sad when the San Antonio Spurs’ age catches up to them this year and they flop even lower than what Nate is saying. I have the Spurs at 7, the Clippers out of the playoffs and New Orleans at 4 right in front of Utah. Nugs will be in the 2 spot come playoff time.
Hornets are an interesting team ...
CP3 will probably keep them in the playoff hunt and Okafor and Peja should have good seasons, but they lost Rasual Butler and I’m not sold on their bench at all. Very interesting team …
Denver Stiffs.com: Defending the sovereignty of Nuggets Nation.
by Nate Timmons on Oct 24, 2009 1:20 PM MDT up reply actions
Agreed, on the sell but I think we'll see their young talent play good this year
I think CP3 will make Okafor even better than he has been. Watch out for these guys. Young and talented with one of the best point guards in the NBA to make them better. Chandler was a bum and I am sure they are thanking their lucky stars about Okafor.
The first 7 games of the season are going to be really tough though
Don’t get too scared if the Nugs go 3 and 4 without JR as he is vital to the Nugs success.
expectations
Since expectations are high this year, Karl’s perceived performance could actually be worse even if in actuality he does the exact same job this time…. must be frustrating to be a coach in the NBA.
by InboundingLobPass on Oct 23, 2009 2:42 PM MDT reply actions
Mbenga
After last night I am wondering if Mbega is available – and if he is interested in coming to work for the Nuggets?
nene
in an earlier post the subject was how far nene could take denver. that still seems to be the case. this season he will not surprise or sneak up on anybody. nugs need rebounding and defense in a BIG way from the center position. nene will hit the wall and his offensive numbers will go down. denver gets a competent jumbo sized big man they will finish near the top of the western conference and go to the finals. without rebounding from the center position the will finish 5th or 6th.
pick up a calf every day pretty soon you will be picking up a cow
That statement shows ignorance about our pace
It’s like sticking Shaq in Phoenix, except not THAT bad. What we need is a Dennis Rodman-esque player who can rebound but also run the floor who doesn’t need to give much offense. Preferably without the off-court distractions. Pops Mensah-Bonsu, anyone? (Oh wait, he is with the Rockets. Why didn’t we sign him when we had the chance. At least we still have Petro…)
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
My picks
So hopefully my predictions are a little better this year (i seem to remember something about how Calderon and Bosh were money and were going to take the raptors to third in the east…ugh)
1. Lakers- It’s a no brainer right?
2. San Antonio- The spurs reload and recover, they’re still one of the best in the west
3. Denver- I like the small additions the team made, Lawson and Afflalo look good
4. Utah- Don’t sleep on Utah, they were hurt last year but before that were one of the best teams in the conference, plus they should get something back for boozer….right?
5. Portland- Andre Miller is a so-so pick-up, but the team is still very talented
6. Dallas- I like the Marion signing but I wonder how he fits in the rotation, plus this way we get a round one K-mart Mark Cuban rematch
7. NOR- After CP3 its hard to bank on anyone on this team
8. Phoenix- the fun and gun is back, if Amare comes back strong this team could be very good
9. OKC- I believe in Scotty Brooks, and Kevin Durant is only getting better
10. Clippers- I don’t have as much confidence in the Clippers playoff prospects as the rest of you, but I admit they do look good on paper, then again they looked good on paper last year too
11. Houston- No Yao, and Ariza is no Artest
12. Memphis- Its sad to think of AI as a gimmick, but thats what he is
13. Minnesota- I really like big Al, if Love comes back strong this team could have a quality second half
14. Golden State- I still think Curry is the best player not named Griffin to come out of the draft, but GS just doesn’t have much going for them
15. Sacramento-…nuff said
Clippers ...
Been hearing good things about Baron Davis and the team is pretty loaded.
Baron Davis / Bassy Telfair
Rasual Butler (from the Hornets) / Eric Gordan / Ricky Davis (headcase)
Al Thornton / Steve Novak
Blake Griffin / Craig Smith (brick sh*t house)
Marcus Camby / Chris Kaman / DeAndre Jordan
You are right … on paper they look good and if they stay healthy … look out!
Denver Stiffs.com: Defending the sovereignty of Nuggets Nation.
by Nate Timmons on Oct 24, 2009 1:28 PM MDT up reply actions
They do look Strong
and I like Eric Gordon, I think he cracks the starting five at some point, or makes a serious run at sixth man of the year, also have heard good things about BDavis. However, Dunleavy still runs the show, and that alone is enough for me to predict another early Summer off for LA’s other team. Plus their frontcourt looks more injury prone then ours
If healthy, the Clips are a lock for the playoffs
But they are the Clippers. Look at [insert Clippers player name here] going down during their first game of the season.
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
I predict that any given prediction will have significant descrepancies in it once the season ends. Or as the saying goes: “That’s why they play the games.” Good thing for the Broncos that they went ahead and played the games in the NFL this year instead of going with the predictions.
Don’t get me wrong, predicting can be fun, but by the end of the season it all comes to nothing.
Hmm, lessee; 34 years old means that VisiCalc came out when you were 4 years old, MultiPlan when you were 6 years old and Lotus 1-2-3 when you were 7 years old. Spreadsheets were available, maybe just not in your household. When I was 10 years old we were about 4 years away from commnly available pocket calculators so I learned to use a slide rule. I know this isn’t a competition to see who is older, but things weren’t so bad when you were a kid.
Predictions are pretty fun though ...
Denver Stiffs.com: Defending the sovereignty of Nuggets Nation.
by Nate Timmons on Oct 24, 2009 1:29 PM MDT up reply actions
Yeah, sure that’s what I mean. It’s fun but nothing to get serious about.
I tend to be more interested in basically who are the teams your team should win against and which to expect them to lose against. If you’re a fan of a bottom dwelling team (as Nuggets fans used to be) then you expect your team to lose every time. If you are a fan of the Lakers this year, you sort of expect them to win against everyone (which is different from winning every game). I look at it this way: I expect the Nuggets to split games against Lakers, SA, Portland, Dallas, Utah, Celtics, Cavaliers and Magic and have a large winning percentage against everyone else. It all depends on how those splits go (supposing they play an upper eschelon western team 6 times and they come out 4-2 as opposed to 3-3 that can make a big difference in the standings as we learned from the tie breaker last season).
Yes, that's about exactly how I look at things as well. Go .500 or better against the elite and try to go basically undefeated agasint lesser opponents.
Denver Stiffs.com: Defending the sovereignty of Nuggets Nation.
by Nate Timmons on Oct 26, 2009 10:03 AM MDT up reply actions
Andre Miller is coming off the bench in Portland
LOL, what an addition! Dude can’t even beat out Steve Blake at the PG position. Blazer fans have a reality check on the way! Now who can say the Blazers are gonna be better than the Nugs? No one with any sense can say that after seeing how good Lawson is as long as Karl uses him instead of AC.
Remember that Blake used to back up Miller/AI over here
But this Blake is better
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
The Rockets won't be worse than the Clippers or Thunder
Stop jocking the Clippers. They are still the Clippers and the Suns and rockets will both be better than people think.
Who is going to score on Houston
Mcgrady certainly can’t give you more then 25 a night at best at this point, maybe 15 from Brooks, around 12 a piece from Battier and Ariza, the other 5-6 guys will have to put up around 30-40 points a night, I just don’t see it
Have the results from the Stiffs HOF come out yet?
I’d be astonished if Hanz wasn’t a unanimous pick
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
Grizz
Memphis may turn out to be the 12th best team in the West, but with a roster of OJ Mayo, Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, DeMarre Carroll (and I guess AI), they will be FUN to watch.
With thy watchwords, Honor, Duty / Thy high fame shall last.
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