TPM™ 2021-'22 Game #57 vs Golden State

Nuggets vs Warriors II: "Warriors... come out to plaaaeeeeaaay!"


The Good Guys

Their Adversaries

*Red boxes above indicate one notable number to catch my eye for each team

(Open images in a new tab for a closer look. Charts courtesy of ESPN.COM. All links contained within this piece will open in a new tab or window.)

If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis.

In-game analysis will be provided for all games except for the second of B2B and/or weekend games. Data will be tracked for all 82 games, regardless of whether analysis is provided or not.



TPM™ Game 56 GSW

Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic: +47

Aaron "Aar" Gordon: +6

"Brontosaurus" Monte Morris: +12

Will "Thrill" Barton: -18

"Uncle" Jeff Green: -2

"Bones" Hyland: +13

Bryn "The Djinn" Forbes: +4

Austin "Tributary" Rivers: +4

DeMarcus "Boogie" Cousins: +8

"Mr Undependable" JaMychal Green: -1

Facundo "El Mago" Campazzo: N/A

"Mr Dependable" Davon Reed: N/A

"Wet" Markus Howard: N/A


Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 49 games +1859

Aaron Gordon: 50 games +680

Monte Morris: 49 games +675

Will Barton: 48 games +374

Jeff Green: 51 games +165

Bones Hyland: 45 games +296

Bryn Forbes: 15 game +72

Austin Rivers: 43 games +79

Zeke Nnaji: 38 games +141

DeMarcus Cousins: 7 games +41

JaMychal Green: 43 games +60

Facundo Campazzo: 53 games +425

Davon Reed: 29 games +95

Markus Howard: 23 games +64

Jamal Murray: 0 games +0

Michael Porter Jr: 9 games +56

Vlatko Cancar: 14 games +56


Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +37.94

Aaron Gordon: +13.60

Monte Morris: +13.78

Will Barton: +7.79

Jeff Green: +3.24

Bones Hyland: +6.58

Bryn Forbes: +4.80

Austin Rivers: +1.84

Zeke Nnaji: +3.71

DeMarcus Cousins: +5.86

JaMychal Green: +1.40

Facundo Campazzo: +8.02

Davon Reed: +3.28

Markus Howard: +2.78

Jamal Murray: +0.50

Michael Porter Jr: +6.22

Vlatko Cancar: +4.00


TPM Per-Minute Splits (Through game 42 {midway point})

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*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet.


Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their 16TH starting five, consisting Monte, Will, Unc, AG & MVP. The Warriors counter with Curry, Klay, Wiggins, Payton & Looney. Full in-game anal returns tonight. No Zeke, but Monte returns after missing three games due to a concussion. MVP wins the tip and we are underway. GS scores the first five, prior to Jeff converting on a fade away. The lead is eight at the time of the first break, 8:43. As feared, Denver is listless; already eying their assorted, looming vacations.

Forbes/Rivers are first off the pine for the good guys, trailing by nine at 5:33. The two most consistently listless players, Barton/Green go out, and Denver immediately goes on a run, cutting it to four at the time of the next break, 3:56. Bones enters following the break. JMyke enters soon after. MVP turns his ankle after being fouled, but appears to be ok. Boogie enters for him nonetheless at 2:25, trailing by four. The bench for GS is playing with much better energy and they increase the lead to eight in short-order.

Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic: +10 as they trail 25-33 after one.


Qtr2- MVP had 11/8 in the first, but no assists, because no other starters have showed up yet. Forbes at least looks locked in for the bench unit. The lead is back down to four at 11:11. Curry enters and follows up Kuminga's three with an and-one, leading to a rage-time-out by Malone at 9:55, as the lead balloons back up to 10. Forbes is en fuego, after sticking his third straight J! GS are awfully handsy vs men in open space. Kuminga is going to be a real problem, if he can continue improving his J. That's an NBA body, for sure. MVP checks in, thankfully, trailing by seven at 7:30. Forbes is cooling off and Malone needs to recognize it. He does, and the starters begin trickling in at 6:37, trailing by nine. AG enters at 6:15 and the starting unit is intact, trailing by 11.

Check that, Forbes remains in for Jeff. Someone REALLY needs to explain the flagrant foul rule to Hastings, once and for all. Jeff Green FINALLY replaces Forbes at 4:25, down 12. Barton is -12 in terms of TPM already (coincidence? of course not), by far the worst on the team. Barton/AG/Jeff have combined for FOUR POINTS which explains why MVP has zero assists. He does have his 2D though, with 16/13. He's in that all-too-familiar space tonight; all on his own. Jeff is Denver's very first cutter of the night, resulting in Jokic's first assist. The lead is down to eight with 1:32 remaining. Denver has just one steal and one block in the half, indicative of the effort being shown out there. Jokic 16 points (15 boards), rest of the starters 12 points, at the half.

Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic: +15 as they trail 54-63 at the half.


Qtr3- The turnover margin is the main story (beyond the offensive ineptitude of all Nuggets starters, with the obvious exception of MVP.) GS has just three (they are normally turnover prone) to Denver's 12. Denver is frankly, lucky to trail by single digits. AG does NOT want to move on the offensive end of the floor. That's unfortunate considering that GS has nobody to defend him in the paint. Curry could be called for grabbing defensively on every play. Get Jeff out of there. He's elsewhere tonight. GS leads by 13 at the time of the first break, 7:44.

I'd like to see Malone bench Barton/Jeff after the timeout, to send a message about focus/effort. Denver's starters (MVP excluded, naturally) are 1-10 from three tonight. MVP is now being triple teamed, and why not. The bench-squad begins filtering back in at 4:21, down by 11. If their bench doesn't perform well-above their norm, that could be all we see of the starters (minus MVP of course, who remains in.) I don't love the idea of Forbes defending Curry, for any length of time. MVP checks out at 1:44, trailing by nine. Bones, with a rookie mistake, fouls Klay under the hoop with under a second remaining, because... of course.

Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic: +27 as they trail 78-86 after three.


Qtr4- Malone, with an early rage-timeout, after Forbes blows a defensive assignment at 11:18, trailing by nine. A three by Rivers vs the GS zone cuts it to six, following the time out. Curry is out there but GS is failing to take advantage of it. The teams exchange several buckets but the lead remains six at 8:43. Bones shot is way off tonight, to the tune of 2-11. The officials are making up for lost time with an abundance of foul calls in the 4th. Curry sits, and now is when Denver needs to make headway. Morris enters for the good guys at 7:52, trailing by 10. Denver is up to 18 turnovers, resulting in 24 points for the Warriors. MVP enters at 7:26, trailing by eight. Monte trims the lead to seven with a three at 6:59. The starters, sans-MVP, were 0-10 on the night prior to it. Curry's blow might have been the shortest in league history (NBA history... I've had shorter), as he checks back in after the break. MVP cuts it to 5 with a three, which was changed to a two. Looked like a three to me. AG enters at 5:48, trailing by eight. Rivers/Forbes remain in, from the bench unit, so Malone must have been reading along again (re: Barton/Jeff benching.) Half hearted MVP chants are taking place for Curry at the line, after he was gifted a foul vs Rivers. Forbes cuts it to five with a three at 4:45. Jokic is awarded a three for the shot THAT WAS PRETTY CLEARLY A THREE earlier, upon further review. Both squads are in the bonus at 3:55, with GS leading by five.

Some ticky tack fouls are definitely goin' in GS favor here, down the stretch, and the lead is seven at 3:25. A makeup call goes to MVP on a non-foul by Looney. Turnabout being fair-play. The lead is eight with 3:16 remaining. Barton and Jeff are rightly glued to the bench and Denver is siezing momentum. MVP has 33/17/6, Forbes has 20 and nobody else has shit. Denver is going to the hack-a-shack on Looney. It works! Rivers cuts it to 5 with a three, then another hack-a-Loon. Doesn't work this time. MVP appears to be running outta steam here, which is of course, understandable. Denver has ZERO fast break points! Alley-oop from MVP to AG and the lead is three with exactly a minute remaining. The GS PA dude, is fucking obnoxious. Denver needs a stop here. They get it and call a timeout with 45 seconds to go. MVP cuts it to one with 35 seconds to play. Monte steals it and lays it in and Denver IMPOSSIBLY has the lead, with 15 seconds to go, on the strength of an 8-0 run. Dig deep and get a stop here. Force a bad shot. GS has no timeouts remainng. Curry drains one with 6 seconds to go, and he's gifted yet another foul, in which HE, not Morris, created the contact, at an arm's lengh, no less! Utter bullshit, but credit where due, the shot was nails. He hits the free throw and GS leads by 2. Denver has it and will look to set up a three I'm sure, as tired as they all are. MVP to Monte for three wins it! Eat shit ref!

Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic: +47 as they come up with an unlikely W


Final Thoughts:

  • Denver wins by a final score of 117-116, and in so doing, improves to 33-25 on the season.
  • I'm so over the effort of Barton/Green. I'm genuinely surprised at this point when they are focused and active.
  • Man, I can not wait until such time as MVP is officiated the same way all other stars are.
  • Boogie is here to stay, after yet another solid effort. It's simple math. The bench unit doesn't suck when he plays.
  • The Warriors do not want to face a Nuggets squad featuring MPJ/Murray, in the playoffs. Hell, they have their hands full with the current iteration.
  • God, those fouls Curry 'drew" in the clutch were charmin-soft.
  • 35/17/8 for MVP IN Frisco. Biggest win of the year for the Nuggets, to be sure.
  • 'Member when MVP sprained his ankle in the early going and didn't miss any time? AD/Embiid could neva!
  • Probably Malone's best in-game coaching with Denver.


For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats, but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM, which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric, because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 45-year-old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was, in this case, interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly appreciate your the support.

I can be found at @prmorphine on Twitter.

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

And as always, get the jab, wear the mask, act like a good person privately and especially in public; even if you are not, and most importantly, fuck the Lakers.


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