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Video Scouting Report: J.R. Smith

I have always been a fan of J.R. Smith.  I remember praying that he would fall to the Nuggets or that they could trade up and draft him in 2004 when he came out of high school (he was drafted two picks before Denver was on the clock).  I remember watching him play in the summer league and he put on display a very complete offensive game.  

Then he fell flat on his face.  It was never a question of talent, but a question of dedication and developing the mindset of an NBA player.  When he was on the floor for New Orleans all he showed was a propensity to jack up threes and a complete disinterest in playing defense.  

His stock fell so far that when he was traded to Chicago as part of the Tyson Chandler deal, Chicago immediately shipped him to Denver for a non guaranteed contract and two second round draft picks despite the fact that Chicago was in desperate need of a shooting guard with size.

J.R.’s first season in Denver was not much different than his experience in New Orleans.  When he got in the game, he would launch bad threes and run around like an explorer with ADD unsure of the significance of anything going on around him.  He was eventually benched in the 2007 playoffs against the Spurs for his horrid shot selection and poor defense.

In the off season the Nuggets had the opportunity to extend his contract and they rightly chose not to.  Early in the season you could tell that J.R. was putting forth more effort on defense, but he still had no understanding of the concept of playing defense.  

Offensively, he was still just a sniper who played as if he passed up a shot he would never get the opportunity to take another one.  

Then thanks to injuries to Anthony Carter and Chucky Atkins George Karl decided to give J.R. some minutes at point guard and J.R. accepted the responsibility of running the offense, not taking the first shot and attempting to get the ball to an open teammate.  For the first time he started to display some of that all around offensive game that he displayed in summer league a few years prior.

Carter returned from his injury and J.R.’s time at the point ended.  He seemed to regress back to the long range chucker we had seen so often.  His minutes dwindled down to the mid teens or lower and he seemed once again to be a lost cause.  Then on February 10th he made six threes against Cleveland and added five rebounds.  He has scored in double figures in 22 of the 26 games since then and he has played at least 24 minutes in 12 of those games.

On top of that, he started doing more than shooting 25 footers with 19 seconds left on the shot clock.  He started playing like a complete player once again.  

We are all starting to see the potential that J.R. possesses.  He was in the league because of his deep range, but he is not longer just a catch and shoot player.  He is almost equally as good off the dribble.  He can pull up or shoot the step back jumper.  He is also using his strength and athleticism to get to the rim and finish.  Add to that the drive and dish and drive and kick out game that he has always been capable of and he is growing into a deadly offensive player.  

Then take into account that he is also beginning to play defense with more purpose and not just undirected effort and the fact that he is rebounding as well and J.R. is starting to look a little like an incredible player.  

Granted he has only done it for a month and a half, but everyone who has ever been around him knew what he was capable of as long as he could get his mind in the right place.  

The sky is still the limit for J.R. as he continues to develop his shot selection and his feel for when to drive and when to pull up.  He must develop the ability to drive with his left hand so that teams do not just start to take away his strong hand, although he has shown the ability to finish at the rim with either hand.  He also must continue to concentrate on defense so that he does not take unnecessary risks.

When you look at J.R. there is no reason he cannot average 22-24 points, four or five rebound and four or five assists.  Nugget fans have to be thrilled about the future for J.R.

Below you can view the video scouting report from plays J.R. made during game 75 against Phoenix.


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Future with the Nuggets

Is J.R. a RFA at the end of the season?  Or a UFA?  Either way, is there any chance whatsoever that Kroenke ponies up to keep him?  Is there some kind of chance that they'll let A.I. walk and dedicate some of the money they save there to J.R.?  How many questions in a row can I ask?

by LarryB303 on Apr 3, 2008 8:26 PM MDT reply actions  

JR is RFA
JR is a RFA and given the current market of teams nearing lux and of all the available 2guards and combo guards that are available this off-season, I find it unlikely that someone offers him more than MLE.  We know that the org.'s board source has indicated that the team is dead-set on re-signing JR. And given what we have seen from him these last 2 months,IMO he would be more of a priority than Allen Iverson.  BTW, A.I. better restructure his deal to make this all work.  

by rururuland on Apr 3, 2008 9:19 PM MDT up reply actions  

AI

I thought AI was a virtual lock to opt out of his deal and become a UFA, not because he wants to leave Denver, but just because that's what you do when you're an aging superstar who's still 85% as good as you used to be and you have a chance to opt out with a year left on the deal.  No?

by LarryB303 on Apr 4, 2008 4:36 AM MDT up reply actions  

AI can Opt Out

AI has said that he will opt out, but there are issues surrounding that decision.  He is due to make $21 million next season.  The Nuggets will obviously look to cut his salary if he opts out and there are no teams with cap space that would have interest in him.  So he would have to take a pretty big pay cut for next season in exchange for what would probably be a higher salary for the next three to six years after that, depending on the length of the new contract.  

What kind of contract could he sign after next season if he does not opt out?  I would have to think he would probably take the MLE to play for a contender.  Maybe Denver would give him a deal bigger than that, but if they end up seventh or eighth again next season with AI, why pay him big bucks to keep him around?

The issue of AI's potential opt out will dominate the off season for Denver and as soon as the season is over I will start focusing on it.  As a primer for future posts, what if he opts out and Kronke says, "Thank you" and just lets that $21 million walk off the books for next season?  What if Denver signs him to a six year $60 million extension?  Neither option seems palatable, but both would be possible.

by Jeremy on Apr 4, 2008 9:22 AM MDT up reply actions  

JR
I agree Jeremy, it's tough to really know what his cieling is. The kid probably has the best range in the NBA and is in the athletic-realm of Wade.   HE can do things around the rim that only a hand-full of superstars can (not just athletic players) .  His ability to take off from one side of the paint,glide to the other and maintain his elevation is elite.  There have been a hand-full of shots (not dunks) this year that have taken my breath away.  Like you said he can shoot off screens becuase he has a very good and quick release and defenders just aren't going to cover him from as deep as he shoots them.  

There really aren't any players that you can compare him to.  His range and 3-pt accuracy is right up there w/Allen, Redd, Miller but w/elite athleticism.  To me that's superstar/franchise level cieling.  He may not be as quick as Wade, but he has similar strength and explosion.  If he gets a step on you it's over.

by rururuland on Apr 3, 2008 9:28 PM MDT reply actions  

What team would take on A.I.?
Allen is really going to be limited if he goes into 2009 not having re-signed w/us.  He's stated many times that he doesn't want to be in a situation where he isn't at the top of the scouting report. He's not going to be relegated to a 25-30 minute bench player.
Look around the league and w/out considering teams w/ the ability to sign him, who is willing to take on a player as unique as Allen? Look at the contenders- PHX,Dallas,San Antonio,Utah,Boston,Detroit,Lakers
New Orleans- None of those teams have a real need for a combo-guard who likes to dominate the ball and is for the most part a defensive liability.  We know Allen wants to win and he won't sign with a bottom-feeder.  When you start to consider the up-and-coming teams like Portland, Philly, Atlanta etc. Would those teams be willing to compromise the structure and discipline that they are using to develop more stable futures? The only two teams I could see Allen signing with are Houston and Orlando and I still can't see those situations comparing to what Allen has in Denver.  

In the end I think both sides will meet in the middle. If Allen gets six years we will have 3 great years and the ability to re-sign Eddie, JR and perhaps find a better pg to play beside him.  

by rururuland on Apr 4, 2008 7:32 PM MDT reply actions  

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