Denver Stiffs: FanPosts

Andrew Iguodala Profile

2013-05-21T14:53:21Z

There are no men like me. There's only me.

Summery:

Positives-

Excellent perimeter defender who can guard anyone from quicker point guards to smaller fours
Solid secondary ball handler who can operate effectively in the pick and roll, very good passer
Works well pushing the pace, great at penetrating through an off-balance defense
Great around the basket when he gets there, both at finishing and passing out of a collapsing defense

Negatives-

A poor shooter whose weakness was accentuated in an offense that asked him to spot up frequently
Despite being so adept at getting and finishing at the rim, failed to draw enough free throws and shot them poorly when he did get to the line
Struggles off ball in half court sets, spots up too often in the corners where the defense promptly ignores him

Career Arc:

Iguodala's career arc is a fascinating one by all accounts. He was drafted ninth overall by Philadelphia after spending two years at Arizona and quickly found his way into the starting lineup. His usage rate over the years could pretty much tell the story of his time as a 76er, jumping from 14.7 to 22.6 after Allen Iverson was traded in Iggy's third year when the team was more or less turned over to him. He initially responded very well to this added responsibility, posting what would be the best numbers of his career in that three year stretch from '06-'09, but as with Iverson, it never seemed to be enough.

From the very beginning Iguodala's skill set, athleticism, and most of all his incredibly muscular physique worked against him as much as it helped him succeed. He was one of the many players doomed with expectations and player comps that they could just never live up to. If you turned your head and squinted just right you could perhaps see a little LeBron James in this similarly gifted "point forward" and yet he could never be the player James was and is, his offense would never become that refined, and it was an incredibly unfair standard to hold Iguodala to from the get-go. His improved play did little to quell these expectations, as for every improvement in his game the bar was raised a little higher on him, the desperate and perpetually disappointed Philly fan base seemed to never be satisfied with his status quo.

His contract did little to help matters as the 6 year, $80 million he signed for in the summer of 2008 paid him like the player the 76ers wanted him to be, not the player he was. Its hard to assign blame either way for this, Philly was in the unfortunate position both Atlanta and Memphis also found themselves in with Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay; players who were stars but could only take a team so far as number one options, yet whose presence on the team was better than the alternative (although that ironically changed for all three players as they have all since been traded away). This contract came to define Iggy as much as any of his accomplishments on the court, the money he was making only fueling the growing unrest with his inability to live up to this fictional standard that was created for him.

His time in Philly ended fittingly, doing just enough to drag the Sixers past the broken Bulls, but not enough to beat a superior Boston team and despite going well beyond expectations by getting to a game 7 in the second round, ultimately the season was marked as yet another failure. In the offseason, Philadelphia swung a deal to acquire new franchise centerpiece Andrew Bynum, shipping the old one to Denver.

Perhaps it was because there were only two years left on Iguodala's exorbitant contract or perhaps it was because he was brought in not as an individual savior but rather a strong addition to a talented collective, but for whatever reason Iggy was far more embraced in Denver than he ever was in Philly. The baggage of multiple stunted playoff appearances and disappointing seasons were gone and Iggy thrived in his new role as a Nugget.

Like most of the Nuggets, Iggy had a rough first couple months, most likely born from both the brutal road schedule that plagued Denver until February and the adjustment to a new team. He eventually found his bearings and helped propel Denver to a borderline top ten defense, despite playing a breakneck pace. During the playoffs, Iguodala was a lone bright spot, one of the few Nuggets who actually played up to their regular season averages and even a bit beyond them. His future with Denver is currently up in the air, but we'll get to that.

The Passing:

via http://www.hotshotcharts.com

As you can see from the chart, Iguodala is responsible for a big chunk of Denver's total assist (nearly 22% of them to be exact) and for an offense that is predicated on having at least two capable ball handlers with a premium on passing at all times, Iggy is invaluable. Iguodala also happens to be third among non-point guards in the league in assist rate and is one of the most gifted passers in the league. His court vision, his ability to to toe the baseline and make a nearly balletic move to get a bounce pass around a defender, and his cross-court passes in transition were among the biggest catalysts for his numerous comps to the king of the point forward, LeBron James.

IggyPG1 (via David Walker)

IggyPG3 (via David Walker)

Iggy excels as the primary ball handler both in the pick and roll and in isolation, beating his man off the dribble and charging into the teeth of the defense. As he charges, using his perpetually underrated handle, he sees the court splayed out before him like a chess board, with players on both teams pawns he can use in his never ending quest for an easy basket. He also happens to always be four or five moves ahead of these pawns, which helps.

One worrying trend throughout the season was a tendency to accumulate turnovers, and they tended to happen in disastrous bunches. Iggy's turnover rate of 17.1% is not only the worst mark of his career since his third season, it comes in a year where his usage rate wasn't nearly as high. More or less this means that he is turning the ball over more despite handling the ball less. Many of these turnovers come from the fatal mistake of jumping with the ball before knowing what to do with it, a flaw you frequently find in these hybrid passing forward types (LeBron and Paul Pierce come to mind as falling victim to this as well). Hopefully this is a blip and not a trend.

The Shooting:

via http://www.hotshotcharts.com

via agameofnuggets.files.wordpress.com

It doesn't really matter how you present it, its pretty easy to see Iggy can't shoot. He remains as efficient as ever at the rim, both in getting there and finishing. Like LeBron, a lot of his shots at the rim come from transition dunks but Iguodala has always been adept at scoring around the rim, in the open court or in traffic. Denver utilized Iggy's touch around the rim by running sets where a big (usually Faried or Koufos) sets a pin down screen for a cutting Iguodala coming from the weak side.

IggyCut (via David Walker)

Iguodala averaged a career high in three pointer attempts (3.7 a game) and it unfortunately came on 31.7% shooting. Taking nearly four threes a game for such a poor shooter can be dismissed partly as a system problem, Denver's dribble drive system produced a ton of threes and Iggy was not the only poor shooting Nugget that took an unusually large number of threes. However Iguodala is not blameless here, many a times he took the always ill-advised PUJIT three or broke the offense for no particular reason to take a three the defense hardly ever bothered to defend (he shot a dismal 26.2% from three out of isolations per Synergy). When he was spotting up at the wings he was at least a passable shooter and thus not as much of a spacing liability. However defenses were soon wise to his inability to convert corner threes (the right one being an especially forlorn graveyard of bricked shots) and nearly stopped closing out on him altogether.

Creepy Similarity to Josh Smith-

I've always found it interesting how maligned Josh Smith is for his poor shot selection and yet Iguodala usually gets by scott free. Both are excellent defenders and distributors and while Iggy's shooting prowess is not exactly lauded he does not get hit with the type of venomous bile Smith does for every bricked jumper he takes. In fact the similarities between the two's shot distributions are frighteningly similar:

via agameofnuggets.files.wordpress.com

24% of Iguodala's shots come from the midrange, an area he shoots 31% in, while 28% of Josh Smith's shots come from that same mid range spot, where he shoots 30%. The question becomes wether this means we are overrating Iguodala or underrating Smoove, my personal opinion is leaning to the latter. I guess the answer will come in the form of Smith's next contract and how it stacks up to what Iggy got and will get after he opts out.

The Defense:

Alas the greatest part of Iguodala's game is one that is extremely hard to evaluate in the form of the exact statistical measures that we can parse from his offensive game. Yet the rudimentary defensive stats we do have speak volumes to his immense impact. A quick gander at Iggy's defensive splits will show that the Nuggets go from the 7th best defense in the league (tied with Miami) with him on the court to 23rd (just ahead of Detroit) with him off.

Individually, Synergy has him ranked as the 11th best isolation defender in the league (factoring in the contextless way Synergy logs these defensive stats Iggy is probably even higher on the list than that) and in 118 attempts he was only scored on 28% of the time all while forcing 26 turnovers. In summation, don't get caught in an iso with Andre Cash Rules Everything Around Me C.R.E.A.M. Get The Money Iguodala Dala Bills Y'all guarding you.

Even taking a step back from the statistics, Iguodala's fingerprints are all over Denver's massive improvement defensively this season. The perpetuating defensive issues that plagued Denver for nearly a decade were threefold: a coach whose tended to forfeit defense in a quest for better offense, a roster that rarely had more than a couple above average defenders on it, and a play style that produced a pace that always found itself near the top of the league (usually a killer for good defense). Its hard to say that much changed from then to now, other than Iggy's arrival. Karl (although perhaps not the defensive illiterate that many make him out to be) didn't change the way he coached, outside of Iggy only three Nuggets consistently played above average defense (Brewer, a gambler even in the best of times, Chandler, gone for most of the year, and Gallo), and they still placed second in the league in pace. The difference was Iguodala, and his absolute evisceration of any type of penetration had just as much impact as any of the league's top defensive centers did at guarding the paint.

There is not much more to say about his defense other than the man is a maestro. He sets his feet and locks eyes with his man, but he knows about every little movement, screen, and switch going on behind him. He laughs in the face of a simplistic pick and roll, blowing them up much like a hedging center would, except he does it by himself, slipping the screen he sees coming from a mile away and cutting off that little bit of daylight into the lane with all the vicious grace of a panther. His isolation defense has been described using such phrases like "defending like he is on bath salts" and "oh my god did he just eat Aaron Afflalo's face????" (those two things may or may not have somethings to do with each other). He swallows dribbles and snips lanes, he implodes the explosive and impedes the careening. He is Andre Cash Rules Everything Around Me C.R.E.A.M. Get The Money Iguodala Dala Bills Y'all and he'll defend the hell out of you.

The Future:

What happens with Iguodala will really be the biggest tell for how the front office views this team and how they are going to move forward with it. By all accounts Iggy is likely to opt out of his deal, a move most aging players make when suddenly years and security becomes slightly more important than yearly salary. From a purely outsider's perspective, it seems as if Iguodala enjoyed playing in Denver and would likely resign if the money is right. The question becomes, what is Iggy's current market value and how much is too much for Denver to commit.

Iguodala is past his days as a max guy, with both that particular perception of him fading as well as his age making it all the more dangerous to hand a guy who so heavily relies on his athleticism five more years. But even with a down offensive year, Iguodala's sheer defensive impact proved just how valuable he can still be and there are a bevy of teams willing to shell out for an elite wing defender.

The most ideal option for Denver is to remain as flexible as possible going into next year while still trying to see what they have, which more or less means Iggy playing out his final year. This may (and likely will) not be an option however and Denver's decision to match or re-up Iguodala may be the beginnings of a locking in process that they have thus far avoided. Keeping Iggy means the front office feels like they are ready to commit to this team setup and the potential success that it can bring. Passing on him likely means the team is still in a state of flux, where roster flexibility is valued above all else.

Regardless of the decision this is a season that will that no future act can take away. Andre Iguodala played a total of 86 games this season. Most games were rife with bricked jumpers amid gloriously hounding defense and some were full of face-palming turnovers and earth shattering dunks. And then there were those games were everything clicked, the games that wowed you and made you think those unreachable heights of yesteryear were once again possible. After seeing enough of Iggy's work to grow unadulteratedly awed by his efforts, I tried to go out of my way to turn my head just so and squint just right to see the player everyone once wanted him so desperately to be (myself included). But I couldn't. All I saw was Iggy, for all his strengths and faults, and no one else. Maybe he's been in the league long enough to have shed all player comps or maybe he just found his right role in Denver where people have finally accepted what and who he is.

Or maybe we were the ones at fault from the very start, trying to peg down an individual so undefinable. Because there are no men like Andre Iguodala, there is only him.

There are no men like me. There's only me.

Summery:

Positives-

Excellent perimeter defender who can guard anyone from quicker point guards to smaller fours
Solid secondary ball handler who can operate effectively in the pick and roll, very good passer
Works well pushing the pace, great at penetrating through an off-balance defense
Great around the basket when he gets there, both at finishing and passing out of a collapsing defense

Negatives-

A poor shooter whose weakness was accentuated in an offense that asked him to spot up frequently
Despite being so adept at getting and finishing at the rim, failed to draw enough free throws and shot them poorly when he did get to the line
Struggles off ball in half court sets, spots up too often in the corners where the defense promptly ignores him

Career Arc:

The Passing:

via http://www.hotshotcharts.com

IggyPG1 (via David Walker)

IggyPG3 (via David Walker)

The Shooting:

via http://www.hotshotcharts.com

via agameofnuggets.files.wordpress.com

IggyCut (via David Walker)

Creepy Similarity to Josh Smith-

via agameofnuggets.files.wordpress.com

The Defense:

The Future:

Or maybe we were the ones at fault from the very start, trying to peg down an individual so undefinable. Because there are no men like Andre Iguodala, there is only him.

Trade Wilson Chandler for draft picks?

2013-05-16T19:23:05Z

Draft Trades Brainstorming:

I remember reading somewhere on this site of the idea to trade Wilson Chandler for the Cavs 19th and 31st picks in the 2013 NBA Draft. Do people that that's worth the trade (if not, what is Wilson Chandler worth in terms of trade value)? If that turns out to be the case the Nuggets will have the 19th, 27th, and 31st overall picks in the upcoming draft. Who would you like to see drafted with those picks?

What the Nuggets need:

The conventional saying (other than the fact that teams need a star player) is that the Nuggets need better shooters to improve on their overall terrible free throw and three point shooting percentages. The Nuggets also lack a tough big man to bang in the post that will muscle their way for baskets on one end, and make it tough for the opposing team to score in the paint (somewhat in the mold of Marc Gasol...and less gimmicky defense like what JaVale McGee plays right now). Lastly, there's a lot of talk of needing a backup point guard for the future instead of over relying on Andre Miller.

Prospects that come to mind:

Shooters:

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 6'5 Shooting Guard (Georgia)

CJ McCollum - 6'3 Combo Guard (Lehigh)

Allen Crabbe - 6'6 Shooting Guard (California)

Sergey Karasev - 6'7 Small Foward (Russia)

Alex Abrines - 6'6 Shooting Guard (Spain)

Big Men:

Gorgui Dieng - 6'10 245 lbs Power Foward (Louisville) - Strong Defense with solid mid-range jumper

Mouhammadou Jaiteh - 6'11 250 lbs Center (France) - Big banger, only 18 and has potential

Steven Adams - 7'0 250 lbs Center (Pittsburg) - Athletic Young and big, raw but has potential

Jeff Whithey - 7'0 240 lbs Center (Kansas) - Strong Defense

Point Guards:

CJ McCollum - 6'3 (Combo Guard with great shooting ability)

Dennis Schroeder - 6'2 (Lighting quick pass first point guard, solid shooting touch)

Lorenzo Brown - 6'4 (Strong defensive point guard)

Erik Green - 6'3 (Combo Guard with solid shooting ability)

Myck Kabongo - 6'2 (Lighting quick point guard...lack shooting touch)

Draft Trades Brainstorming:

What the Nuggets need:

Prospects that come to mind:

Shooters:

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 6'5 Shooting Guard (Georgia)

CJ McCollum - 6'3 Combo Guard (Lehigh)

Allen Crabbe - 6'6 Shooting Guard (California)

Sergey Karasev - 6'7 Small Foward (Russia)

Alex Abrines - 6'6 Shooting Guard (Spain)

Big Men:

Gorgui Dieng - 6'10 245 lbs Power Foward (Louisville) - Strong Defense with solid mid-range jumper

Mouhammadou Jaiteh - 6'11 250 lbs Center (France) - Big banger, only 18 and has potential

Steven Adams - 7'0 250 lbs Center (Pittsburg) - Athletic Young and big, raw but has potential

Jeff Whithey - 7'0 240 lbs Center (Kansas) - Strong Defense

Point Guards:

CJ McCollum - 6'3 (Combo Guard with great shooting ability)

Dennis Schroeder - 6'2 (Lighting quick pass first point guard, solid shooting touch)

Lorenzo Brown - 6'4 (Strong defensive point guard)

Erik Green - 6'3 (Combo Guard with solid shooting ability)

Myck Kabongo - 6'2 (Lighting quick point guard...lack shooting touch)

Poll

Should we trade Wilson Chandler for some draft picks?

Who should the Nuggets take in the NBA Draft?

2013-05-15T01:25:16Z

Roundball Daily.com came out with its mock draft yesterday, and they have the Nuggets taking NC State's CJ Leslie at No. 27.

It also has a story on who the Nuggets should draft, with some interesting options who could still be available when Denver goes on the clock.

Among them are nation's leading scorer Erick Green, and National Defensive Player of the Year Jeff Withey, and New Mexico guard Tony Snell.

Replacing Iguodala seems to be the theme among mock drafts, and it shows up again here in this one. That's the first area of need mentioned.

Take a look at the full story here.

Roundball Daily.com came out with its mock draft yesterday, and they have the Nuggets taking NC State's CJ Leslie at No. 27.

It also has a story on who the Nuggets should draft, with some interesting options who could still be available when Denver goes on the clock.

Among them are nation's leading scorer Erick Green, and National Defensive Player of the Year Jeff Withey, and New Mexico guard Tony Snell.

Replacing Iguodala seems to be the theme among mock drafts, and it shows up again here in this one. That's the first area of need mentioned.

Take a look at the full story here.

Questions About Josh Kroenke

2013-05-11T02:02:59Z

Hi all!

As you may or may not have heard, Josh Kroenke was just named President of the Avs today. We're cautiously optimistic, but we don't have much of an idea what exactly that means for us. Up until this point, he's never been very present in our organization, and we've only gotten a few sound bites here and there from him over the past few years. Given that the common view by the fanbase and main-stream media is that he doesn't give two cares about our team and sees hockey only as a way to sell beer on non-Nuggets nights, we're of course a little concerned. Our team is dreadful right now and is in need of some serious attention, but we really have no idea what to expect from him.

Since he's clearly been your President for a bit longer than he's been ours, I was wondering if you hand any insight on what he might bring to the table and what sort of an executive he is. How has he impacted your team in the time that he's been here? I unfortunately don't get the chance to watch the Nuggets very much, but I do know that you've been doing better in recent years. What changed, and did Josh play a role in that? Really, any thoughts you might have on him would be extremely helpful.

Thanks for your help!

Hi all!

Thanks for your help!

Random observations about the 2012-13 season of the Nuggets.

2013-05-07T14:52:52Z

1) Let's start with the positive. During the regular season, this team wildly overacheived. They were entertaining, gutted out key victories and beat every contender except for Miami.

2) Fond memories include Brewer taking over a couple games and winning them (PHI?), blowing out our arch rivals at altitude, including, the Lakers, Clippers, Knicks, Bulls (not arch rivals) and the best moment, winning at OKC on a back-to-back, on Stiffs Night Out, showing the league that an exciting brand of basketball can win, as well as entertain.

3) Setting a record for regular season victories with no superstars, while battling injuries, and watching George Karl get the best out of guys such as Brewer, Koufos, Miller and McGee, who face it, are not polished NBA players with superior skill sets, was terrific. The rest of the cast is average: the enigmatic Chandler, the inconsistent Lawson, the fundamentally challenged Faried. Our two best players were Igoudala and Gallinari. Lawson was excellent, but inconsistent on defense in the playoffs. At least he showed up. AI and Gallo both have fatal flaws: The diffident AI in his dwindling offensive game and Gallo with his health. Gallo has been hurt every year, primarily on drives to the basket. Can he be effective and true to himself if he doesn't drive to the hoop? Otherwise his long legs and joints may be just to frail for the demands of NBA basketball. So our team was flawed to begin with, just like every team, but hey, you need to be able to shoot the basketball with a decent rate of effectiveness and to have some variety to it, otherwise teams can adjust in a 7-game series. I never said you can't win without making some outside shots.

4) Re. the running/passing game versus the shooting game or isolation game. I believe it is a better way to play basketball and will ultimately evolve as a dominant scheme. However, no strategy is better than the players who play it. For some reason, in the playoffs the players stopped playing the kind of defense that leads to turnovers and the running game. The walked the ball up on offense and fell into the timid trap of isolation ball. Sickening.

5) The playoffs. The team, which is primarily responsible for success, choked. They stopped playing the game that got them there. They did not impose their wills. They did not realize what the playoffs were about. You can blame the non-playing coach all you want, and he is not without blame because it is shared, but it is the players who screwed the pooch on this. Perhaps the Nuggets were overconfident that excellent coaching could overcome pure talent. Maybe that's proven not to be true now.

6) George Karl. He shared in the playoff choking. First by not mentally preparing his team for the increased intensity of the playoffs; by not stressing that they must impose their will and style of play; and second, by panicking and going small against GS instead of riding out the shoddy play by his big men and Wilson Chandler. Karl goes small far too often. He should have had a couple backup plans that the team practiced. The final nail in our coffin was playing his trust guys, Miller and Brewer, far too long in the playoffs. It worked during the regular season, but those 2 weren't playing well and should have been cut back.

The other main criticism I have of Karl is his failure to develop his young shooters in a season that begged for better shooting. Shooting is confidence and by yanking Fournier, he hurt his confidence. GK hates losing and during the regular season, we probably would have lost more games if he developed the younger talent, both in terms of shooters (Fours, Hamilton) and of McGee. Yet it would have paid off in the playoffs because they have more talent than Miller and Brewer.

Karl will probably coach his last year here in 13-14. He has acknowledged that he has to change. I don't think that will be easy to do. Be careful what you wish for, fans, and remember this when we don't even make the playoffs without Karl.

7) Rosterbation. Brewer is in for an unpleasant surprise. He can only thrive in a few places that run the ball. He's just not that good a shooter and won't stop gambling on defense. Don't overpay for Korver. There's a reason he's bounced around the league. Sure he can hit a few shots but the rest of his game pretty much sucks. I think its time to start Fournier and cut back Miller to 15 minutes a game.

8) McGee. Big men are supposed to take a lot of time to develop, but he's had enough. He regressed during the second half. If he doesn't improve, he should be traded. Faried also must provide some type of offense besides dunks and putbacks.

9) The Denver Stiffs. This site was the best thing about the season. It was great to meet and get to know Andrew, Jeff and Nate and discuss our shared passion of pro basketball and the Nuggets for the better part of a year. Thanks to Sandy Clough for his participation and support and of course his insightful commentary. I felt like I made some basketball friends and even got to meet some of them at SNO. What a great site. It's what social media is supposed to be. Generally the intelligence and good naturedness of the contributors is very high, better than any other blog in the country. Thanks you guys (and gal).

Denver's Native Son

2013-05-07T07:26:28Z

Now that the 2013 season is officially over for the Denver Nuggets, the task of improving the team for 2014 is underway. Much is being made of Denver's lack of shooting, and an additional presence in the post seems necessary as well. However, I believe the Nuggets' biggest need to be that of backup PG. With Gallinari out for a significant amount of time next season, and Andre Miller producing a befuddling -15 +/- over the 6 game series against the Warriors, the Nuggets are suddenly suffering from a shortage of reliable ball handlers. The upside of Miller is that he offers a decent post-presence at the PG position, as well as veteran savvy and leadership while Lawson figures out how to lead the team vocally. The downside of Miller is that his shooting is anemic and his defense is even worse. There is another available free agent who would offer veteran savvy and leadership, as well as slightly better defense, markedly better shooting and a better post presence. I'm talking, of course, about Chauncey Billups.

To make signing Billups happen, the Nuggets would likely need to do two things: First, they would have to find a taker for Miller. Given the fact that Miller still has 12-15 productive minutes a game left in him, and given that his paycheck is a smallish amount (3.3 million a year guaranteed for the next two years), this would likely not be a difficult proposition. Several teams inside of tax territory would have no problem swapping the Miller contract for a similar contract that may offer some additional shooting and / or rebounding. Mike Dunleavy(MIL), Steve Novak (NY), and Anthony Morrow (DAL) all fit this bill. Many believe Denver to be chasing Kyle Korver, but Novak is essentially the same player and would likely be slightly cheaper as well. Maybe turning Miller into a shooter is a better idea than signing a shooter outright.

The second thing the Nuggets would need to do is offer Chauncey assurances that he would be in Denver to stay. Chauncey has made no secret of the fact that he's upset at the organization for trading him twice. But there's an easy fix to this problem, too: The NBA allows teams to offer a no-trade clause to any player with 8 or more seasons of service time, and 4 or more seasons of time with the team signing the contract. Since Chauncey has played for Denver in 5 total seasons, the Nuggets are one of two teams (the other being Detroit) who could offer a NTC to Chauncey. At this stage in his career, Chauncey might be done chasing dollars, and could prefer familiarity and a chance at a ring to a slightly larger deal for an unknown team or fringe contender.

Of course, the Nuggets' entire approach for the off-season will probably be determined by Andre Iguodala's decision to either opt out of his existing contract, or pick up the option and give it one more go-round in the Mile High City. Mosgov and Corey Brewer are free agents, too, and their respective situations will be under evaluation as well. However, in a hypothetical world where Iguodala picks up his option, Denver could do a lot worse than trading Miller for Novak, allowing Mosgov and Brewer to walk and signing Chauncey and another cheap, shooting wing (Roger Mason / Cartier Martin are both cheap. Dorell Wright is a little bit pricier, but offers a similar skillset).

Much has been made of George Karl's decision to play his "trust" guys in crucial spots of games. To some degree, his trust in Corey Brewer and Andre Miller had a negative effect on the Nuggets' chances against the Warriors. Perhaps the answer isn't to ask Karl to trust other players, but rather to give him other players to trust. Coach Karl has admitted a fondness for Chauncey in the past, and, on a personal level, I'm sure we all trust him a lot more than we trust Miller or Brewer. Plus, given Coach Karl's affinity for playing two point guards at once, I'm much more optimistic about a Billups / Lawson backcourt than I am about a Lawson / Miller combination. The shooting would be much better, if nothing else.

There are downsides, to be sure. Chauncey is rapidly approaching the age of reduced productivity. And certainly, giving a player a no-trade clause backs you into a corner regarding roster construction. However, I don't believe it unreasonable to assume that Chauncey can still produce at a high level for 15-20 minutes a game, and the problems of any potential NTC would be somewhat mitigated by limiting the terms and guaranteed dollars of the contract.

If Denver can structure something that works for both parties, I would love to see #1 back in Denver. It would fill our city with equal parts nostalgia and optimism, and allow Chauncey to close his career in the city that loves him most. I can't imagine a more perfect ending for Denver's native son.

My thoughts on the State of the Nuggets after 2012-13.

2013-05-03T16:06:47Z

After seeing how the team came out to play at the beginning of this series, I came to a bunch of quick conclusions. At the end of the series, those opinions haven't changed.

First, as much as I sincerely like the guy, it is time for George Karl to move on. We all know his track record with the Nuggets; good regular season leading to a first round playoff exit (the exception being the great run to the West Finals). In most of those, I think it is safe to say the team wasn't prepared well and Karl was out coached. His system, specifically this year, is designed around a fast-breaking offense that is prone to breakdowns when the pace of the game is slowed down in the playoffs and the defense ratcheted up. The defense resembles some mish-mosh of packing the paint, constant switching, turnover hunting, and ultimately a complete inability to cover anyone behind the three point line.

That inability, or unwillingness, to focus on stopping the 3-ball is what I believe downed us in this series. If there was one thing that should have been prioritized in a series against the Golden State Warriors, it would be making sure to pressure and challenge every 3 taken. We know, they know, everyone knows, that the Warriors have threats galore in long range shooters. Was there any adjustment made by the coach to attempt to take that threat away? I think that answer is clear.

Further, Karl allowed his team to get away from what made them so great at times during this regular season. A free-flowing and completely unselfish offensive game. The Nuggets stopped passing once they got to the playoffs. Our offense looked nothing like the one that won 57 games. It was bogged down by ball-stopping, turnovers, and bad shots. We all know George relies heavily on his "trust" guys. Watching him routinely play Andre Miller, who outside of Game 1, was a complete detriment to our chances of winning, was painful beyond words. How it was not obvious to Karl that Miller played like Melo-Lite (hogging the ball, refusing to pass, taking bad shots) and putting up one of the worst defensive efforts I have ever seen is flabbergasting. Allowing Miller to cover Stephen Curry, if even for one possession, is criminal. Again, guarding the best shooter in the league with our worst defender makes less sense than the game of Cricket.

Again, I appreciate what GK has brought to this organization and don't necessarily want to see him go; I just feel it is the thing that needs to happen at this point.

To finish, I'm going to put on my Masai-hat and list off the steps I hope he takes this off-season to continue to improve this excellent organization.

- As you well know, fire George Karl. His replacement? I haven't the foggiest. A new coach most likely means a change in philosophy. Our players are tailor-fit for our style of play right now, but that doesn't mean that style can't be tweaked to ultimately be more effective while still emphasizing the strengths of our talented roster. We can still play a fast-paced, aggressive offensive style and a high-pressure defense. Improvements need to be made in the half-court offense and more importantly in the defense. If your system leads to open 3's for your opponent any time they want them, that system is broken. I feel confident that there is a prospect out there that can provide some continuity in style, while minimizing the things that have failed over the years. Let me put it this way, we know Karl is a solid coach and one that can get us to the post-season and provide great entertainment for us as fans along the way. We also know that he has serious shortcomings as a game-planner and manager and has shown no willingness or propensity to change those problems. The solution? A change of leadership at the head coaching position.

- Release Andre Miller. His overriding selfishness in this playoff series was disgusting to watch. I hope I don't have to see it again. Again, I appreciate what he has brought to us in his different stints here, but the time is now to move on. Ty Lawson is ready to have the reigns completely passed over to him, and getting rid of Miller will make that transition complete. A cheapish veteran could be the move to replace Andre, or maybe that guy is already on the roster in Fournier or Stone. If a new player is acquired, I would hope his strengths would lie in passing and defense first, and scoring second.

- Release/trade JaVale McGee. We all know his stupendous talent. The fact that he is routinely unable to harness that talent and translate it into any semblance of consistent and effective performance on the court is the reason I wish to see him go. JaVale is now 25. This last season was his 6th in the league. He is no longer a spring chicken. He still has moments of brilliance, where he can put up 10 points, 10 boards, and 3 blocked shots in a span of what seems like 30 seconds. Those moments are far too seldom to make up for the predominant lack of overall awareness, ability to rebound the ball, ability to score on anything other than an open dunk, and ability to play sound defense. I like the guy, he seems to be a misunderstood gentle giant. A guy with a good wit and a good locker room presence. I can appreciate that, but it's no reason to keep him on the team. If he hasn't improved his game in the most basic of ways in 6 years in this league, it's never going to happen. Being a smart human being doesn't always translate to having a mind for playing a sport, and I believe that is the case with JaVale McGee. He also will never be able to log significant minutes because of his asthma, making the big money we pay him all the more ludicrous.

- Find a center. What this team needs is an athletic, long, consistent presence at the center position. I want a guy who is a big defensive presence with the ability to both cover good offensive centers in one-on-one situations and dominate the lane as a shot blocker. That's it. If he can pass the ball a little bit, fantastic. Then, if he has any game offensively, it's just a bonus. I know I know, it's asking a lot. To give you an idea of the type of player I want, think no further than Omer Asik. But, if anything, Masai Ujiri has proven that he is capable of delivering the things we need. This is our biggest need. MAKE IT HAPPEN BATMAN!

That's about all I have and I really need to get back to work. I still love the potential of this team. Ty Lawson is a legitimate star. I think Gallo is one of those too. I hope Iguodala stays, we need him. I love Faried, but recognize that he needs to improve. I can't wait to watch Evan Fournier next season. I hope to see a new coach and a new center next season. With a few tweaks, I believe the unique talent on this team is enough to result in the Good Guys raising the Championship trophy a few years down the line. Let's do this! Go Nuggets!

After seeing how the team came out to play at the beginning of this series, I came to a bunch of quick conclusions. At the end of the series, those opinions haven't changed.

Again, I appreciate what GK has brought to this organization and don't necessarily want to see him go; I just feel it is the thing that needs to happen at this point.

To finish, I'm going to put on my Masai-hat and list off the steps I hope he takes this off-season to continue to improve this excellent organization.

Poll

Should the Nuggets fire George Karl?

Yes

34 votes

No

23 votes

57 votes | Poll has closed

Rapid Reaction to a Quick-Ending Year

2013-05-03T06:15:33Z

Well....that was quicker than most of us expected.

Yes I am typing this 20 minutes after Game 6 and the let down of a bright season. That is the kind of mood I am in right now. We were so close! A phantom out of bounds call away from a possible return to Pepsi Center. Instead we are sent packing...smh.

This post is clearly reactionary without any real thought put into it, but here I go.

1: Andre Iguodala needs to be a Nugget long term. His play with Ty Lawson this season plus any future chemistry will shore up the backcourt for years. His all around play and stifling defense were huge in winning us two games. He almost single handedly pulled this one out as well. As Gallinari gets back healthy, those are three guys that I want to see as Nuggets for the rest of their careers.

2: Corey Brewer needs to go. He was 1/8 tonight in the playoff elimination game. He jacked up awful shots this entire series, and his "pesky" defense accomplished nothing more than reach-in fouls every time he bodied someone up. He can't be allowed that long of a leash, and even if he is signed again, he needs someone to limit his takes.

3: Kosta Koufus and Wilson Chandler need to be packaged together this off season for a true big center that eats up every board. That is one of the few missing pieces. Bogut had 21 boards tonight...Faried and McGee had that, which is progress, but I still feel a skilled big man is needed like a Kevin Love that can do everything for our offense down low and on the perimeter. I don't have enough confidence that Javale can be either.

4. Julyan Stone should get more PT for Andre Miller. He has great ability on Defense and can run an offense and distribute well. Andre may retire soon and we need to find out who will replace him.

5. We used 8 guys in the rotation tonight. I was really hoping for Karl to dive into the bench when things weren't going well but then again it is the playoffs...

My ideal depth chart for this team next year:

PG: Lawson, Miller/Stone split

SG: Iggy, Fournier, any perimeter shooter above 38 percent 3 pt

SF: Gallo, Jham, Qmiller

PF: Pau Gasol / David West type, Faried, Randolph

C: McGee, Mozgov, bench guy

We are so close. Untimely injuries and bad matchups didn't help, but that's no excuse. Next year is really bright, but we need one more piece inside and one more piece outside to be taken seriously next year.

Well....that was quicker than most of us expected.

This post is clearly reactionary without any real thought put into it, but here I go.

4. Julyan Stone should get more PT for Andre Miller. He has great ability on Defense and can run an offense and distribute well. Andre may retire soon and we need to find out who will replace him.

5. We used 8 guys in the rotation tonight. I was really hoping for Karl to dive into the bench when things weren't going well but then again it is the playoffs...

My ideal depth chart for this team next year:

PG: Lawson, Miller/Stone split

SG: Iggy, Fournier, any perimeter shooter above 38 percent 3 pt

SF: Gallo, Jham, Qmiller

PF: Pau Gasol / David West type, Faried, Randolph

C: McGee, Mozgov, bench guy

The Comeback Effect: Why Game-Scores (Shouldn't) Matter

2013-05-03T02:20:00Z

The Nuggets have been through this before; down 3-1 in a best of seven series against teams with a clear comparative advantage over Denver.

Only eight teams have come back from being down 3-1 in a playoff series, with the last rally being in 2006, by the Phoenix Suns against LA.

Our beloved Nuggets are not one of those teams.

As hard as it may seem to win three games in a row, it's not impossible, even against a team as volatile as the Warriors. (Don't forget that the Nuggets have a 3-1 regular season record against them.) With a team like Denver, only factor has the true potential to stop all hope of a mini-streak to stay alive: PRESSURE.

If there's any team that can pull off a feat such as this (not including Miami), it's the Nuggs. With a 15 game win streak in the regular season, 3 games should be a cake walk, regardless of being on the road or not. Let's also acknowledge that the Nuggets tallied their highest win total in history this year (57).

So if those numbers are in our favor, what's to stop us?

Pressure.

Everyone knows that it's hard to close out a series, and that showed two nights ago. So what's gonna make it any easier tonight? While the Warriors do have home court with some LOUD fans, that shouldn't matter. The Nuggets only need to do ONE thing tonight to win this game:

DON'T BUY INTO THE PRESSURE.

I hope everyone's watching.

The Nuggets have been through this before; down 3-1 in a best of seven series against teams with a clear comparative advantage over Denver.

Only eight teams have come back from being down 3-1 in a playoff series, with the last rally being in 2006, by the Phoenix Suns against LA.

Our beloved Nuggets are not one of those teams.

So if those numbers are in our favor, what's to stop us?

Pressure.

DON'T BUY INTO THE PRESSURE.

I hope everyone's watching.

Nuggets vs. Warriors: Rating the Creating of Chaos in Game 5

2013-05-01T11:00:53Z

Photo: John Leyba- Denver Post

As a second follow up to my recent fanpost The Denver Defense and Courting Chaos I had a look at game 5 and have again analyzed the Denver lineups data to see if the most successful lineups in the game were also good at creating chaos on the defensive end.

If you want to know more about what the the chaos% is trying to measure and how it is calculated, check out my earlier fanpost.

Chaos Percentage

Observations:

The overall game chaos% was 2.9 percent over the season average and a new high for the series
If each half is calculated separately, it can be seen that the 1st half chaos% was very high while the 2nd half was .8 percent under the season average
This is consistent with the +20pts differential in the 1st half which included 7 steals and 3 blks resulting in a turnover, followed by the -13pts in the 2nd half which included 5 steals and 1 block resulting in a turnover
The points off turnovers are consistent with the chaos percentages with 12pts in the 1st half and 7pts in the 2nd. The total of 19 for the game is very close to the season average of 19.9pts

Game 5 Lineups

I have looked at the 8 Five man lineups that played at least 90secs in the game and focused on the Top 3 Lineups by NetRtg in the game.

Click the graphic above to view large version (data sourced from NBA.com/stats and to allow comparison between lineups with different minutes, non % stats are listed at per minute rate).

Members of the top 3 Lineups mapped for comparison

Observations:

6 out of the 8 lineups had a positive NetRtg
The top lineup ranked no1 in the OffRtg and NetRtg categories and no2 in DefRtg. This lineup also ranked no2 in the Chaos category of Steals and no1 in PTs off TOs
The 2nd NetRtg lineup ranked no2 in the OffRtg and NetRtg categories and no4 in DefRtg. This lineup also ranked no4 in Steals and no2 in PTs off TOs
The top 3 lineups all ranked in the top 4 in Pts off TO
Chandler and Lawson were part of all 3 top lineups, while Brewer, Iguodala, and Miller appeared in two out of three
The 2nd and 6th lineup were two pg lineups as was the poorest lineup (ranked 8th). The 4th rated lineup was a two center lineup

Game Flow

Next I have taken the 'game flow' lineup information graphic from the PopcornMachine website and added boxes to indicate when the best lineups were playing.

Observations:

As can be seen in the graphic four of the five best Nuggets runs (18-6,15-6,8-0,5-0) occurred in the first half. The top three first half runs are connected to the top ranked lineups
The top NetRtg lineup was responsible for the 12-0 run in the 3rd quarter

This graphic also allows the Golden State lineups to be seen for those interested in looking at the match ups that played against the successful lineups.

In conclusion, the Nuggets achieve their largest chaos rating yet of the playoff series at 16%, and finished with their largest win 107-100. The numbers continue to indicate that chaos percentage is measuring an element crucial to the success of the Nuggets.

Photo: John Leyba- Denver Post

If you want to know more about what the the chaos% is trying to measure and how it is calculated, check out my earlier fanpost.

Chaos Percentage

Observations:

The overall game chaos% was 2.9 percent over the season average and a new high for the series
If each half is calculated separately, it can be seen that the 1st half chaos% was very high while the 2nd half was .8 percent under the season average
This is consistent with the +20pts differential in the 1st half which included 7 steals and 3 blks resulting in a turnover, followed by the -13pts in the 2nd half which included 5 steals and 1 block resulting in a turnover
The points off turnovers are consistent with the chaos percentages with 12pts in the 1st half and 7pts in the 2nd. The total of 19 for the game is very close to the season average of 19.9pts

Game 5 Lineups

I have looked at the 8 Five man lineups that played at least 90secs in the game and focused on the Top 3 Lineups by NetRtg in the game.

Click the graphic above to view large version (data sourced from NBA.com/stats and to allow comparison between lineups with different minutes, non % stats are listed at per minute rate).

Members of the top 3 Lineups mapped for comparison

Observations:

6 out of the 8 lineups had a positive NetRtg
The top lineup ranked no1 in the OffRtg and NetRtg categories and no2 in DefRtg. This lineup also ranked no2 in the Chaos category of Steals and no1 in PTs off TOs
The 2nd NetRtg lineup ranked no2 in the OffRtg and NetRtg categories and no4 in DefRtg. This lineup also ranked no4 in Steals and no2 in PTs off TOs
The top 3 lineups all ranked in the top 4 in Pts off TO
Chandler and Lawson were part of all 3 top lineups, while Brewer, Iguodala, and Miller appeared in two out of three
The 2nd and 6th lineup were two pg lineups as was the poorest lineup (ranked 8th). The 4th rated lineup was a two center lineup

Game Flow

Next I have taken the 'game flow' lineup information graphic from the PopcornMachine website and added boxes to indicate when the best lineups were playing.

Observations:

As can be seen in the graphic four of the five best Nuggets runs (18-6,15-6,8-0,5-0) occurred in the first half. The top three first half runs are connected to the top ranked lineups
The top NetRtg lineup was responsible for the 12-0 run in the 3rd quarter

This graphic also allows the Golden State lineups to be seen for those interested in looking at the match ups that played against the successful lineups.

Head Coach

2013-04-30T15:02:27Z

Hey fellow stiffs! I just wanted to hear your opinions on a new head coach, I keep finding out how people want to hire famous coaches like Jerry Sloan, Phil Jackson, Stan Van Gundy, probably none of them being possible. But I was wondering why no one considers the assistant coaches Melvin Hunt and Chad Iske. Do you think one of these guys could actually become the head coach for the Denver Nuggets? I notice alot of the times that these 2 coaches are talking and giving advice during timeouts, not to mention they are getting mentored by George Karl who no matter what some say about his coaching style is still a HOF coach. Thanks!

Now what?

2013-04-30T14:56:52Z

I’ve marveled at the Nuggies all year.

But when I have looked more closely at the players, I see a 41-win team (that is, average NBA talent).

When I have looked at the rotations (other than a few with substitutes), I don’t see much extra juice. When adding the altitude, I see maybe a 45-win team.

Given that, how did these guys win 57 games?

The answer is that they are winners. That is, they have had the confidence, determination and know-how to win.

Yet, the players have had no confidence in the last 3 games.

What does that imply for the remainder of the series? I think that the coaches need to adjust the attitude, as follows:

1) Play the winners. That is, keep newbies such as Fournier, Stone, Randolph on the bench. These guys just haven’t logged enough minutes this year.
2) Set Fared and McGee free. The coaches have done a good job limiting McGee’s bonehead moves. But he has become a non-factor. The Nuggies need: a) Fared’s energy; b) Fared’s and McGee’s enthusiasm to be at an all-time high; and c) some high-flying blocks and dunks from Fared and McGee to ignite the team.
3) Go back to what the Nuggies dominated at during the season (that is, rebounding, fast breaks, points in the paint).

If the coaches address the issue of confidence through the above moves, this series will turn around quickly.

These guys are winners at heart. Set them free.

I’ve marveled at the Nuggies all year. But when I have looked more closely at the players, I see a 41-win team (that is, average NBA talent). When I have looked at the rotations (other than a few with substitutes), I don’t see much extra juice. When adding the altitude, I see maybe a 45-win team. Given that, how did these guys win 57 games? The answer is that they are winners. That is, they have had the confidence, determination and know-how to win. Yet, the players have had no confidence in the last 3 games. What does that imply for the remainder of the series? I think that the coaches need to adjust the attitude, as follows: 1) Play the winners. That is, keep newbies such as Fournier, Stone, Randolph on the bench. These guys just haven’t logged enough minutes this year. 2) Set Fared and McGee free. The coaches have done a good job limiting McGee’s bonehead moves. But he has become a non-factor. The Nuggies need: a) Fared’s energy; b) Fared’s and McGee’s enthusiasm to be at an all-time high; and c) some high-flying blocks and dunks from Fared and McGee to ignite the team. 3) Go back to what the Nuggies dominated at during the season (that is, rebounding, fast breaks, points in the paint). If the coaches address the issue of confidence through the above moves, this series will turn around quickly. These guys are winners at heart. Set them free.

Too Early?

2013-04-29T09:17:21Z

Look, with the way the series has played out, the Nuggets will be making yet another early first round exit from the playoffs. Straying away from a biased standpoint, statistics and gameplay show that the Warriors are outplaying the Nuggets. With that being said, why not take a look at our offseason.

In the Offseason, the Nuggets should look to replace their starting 5, 3, and backup 1, 3, and 4. Perhaps the biggest problem is George Karl. He insists on playing without a superstar which is fine. His argument is that no one knows where the scoring will come from each night and that that is a strength for Denver. However, if he continues to coach this way then it would be logical to have a team with consistent players at least. Because the problem in this playoff series is that all the inconsistent players have been playing badly. Only Lawson has been producing at a steady rate game in and game out. It can be argued that Iggy has been consistent but in-game he has started hot and fizzled out as the game wears on. Inconsistency has killed the Nuggets. The perimeter shooting is bad. On some nights Denver gets lucky with Corey Brewer and Chandler but it is so hard to coach a team when they cannot be confidently relied on to shoot from outside.

To fill in Gallinari's void, the Nuggets should look to try and attain Danny Granger. He is entering a contract year and has a lot to prove to earn his last big pay cheque after just turning 30 a week ago. He has proven to be a good scorer who can shoot the 3 ball very well. He also has good size and would be able to play the 4 when Karl wants to play small. The Pacers have moved on without him as Paul George has taken his spot. Possibly trading picks along with Anthony Randolph, Hamilton and Koufus for Granger and maybe scraps.

The Nuggets should look to grab Al Jefferson from the Jazz. They have voiced that they are looking to move either one or both of their current starting bigs, Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap. Jefferson is bigger and a better post scorer. He is a career 16 and 9 guy who would make Denver's starting front court a very good rebounding team. Faried is great at grabbing O boards while Jefferson secures the defensive boards. The Nuggets get 2 inches smaller with this acquisition but McGee will be coming off the bench and will probably be seeing a few more minutes each game anyways. Plus, he would be a reliable first or second option, especially in half court offense.

Denver's wings are too crowded. There is no need to keep Hamilton, Fournier, Brewer, and Stone. Despite Brewer's great contribution with his perimeter shooting and energy off the bench, he is inconsistent which is a Nugget weakness. The Nugget's would be smart not to resign him. Hamilton should be traded away with so much scoring potential and athleticism wasting away on the bench as the 12th man for Denver. Fournier has shown good potential if Karl gives him enough minutes. He fits in well with the dribble drive offense and if his 3 can improve he should be able to provide solid minutes off the bench. Stone is somewhat of a mystery. Some say that he has high potential as the Nugget's future backup pg. It would not hurt to keep him around. With no backup 3 though, the Nuggets should find either a good defender or someone who can hit the 3. Some options are Kyle Korver, Anthony Morrow, Dorell Wright, or Jeff Green. This player would see 20-25 minutes considering the Nuggets would be less deep and have a more conventional rotation.

Anthony Randolph should be gotten rid off. He cannot score using post moves, his on-ball defence is not great and he is another inconsistent player on the current roster. As a replacement for a backup 4, the Nuggets should target Kris Humphries and try to sign Marreese Speights. A possible trade would be Chandler for Humphries straight up.

I have no idea salary wise how or if these would work. But in terms of the Nuggets future roster, this is all we can be sure of:

Ty Lawson/ Andre Miller/

?/ Fournier

?/?/(Gallinari - injured)

Kenneth Faried/ ?

?/ JaVale McGee/?

I doubt Miller will be traded because of the trust and love Karl has for him. Igoudaula may very well sign elsewhere after this disastrous playoff round. Chandler is not reliable and was involved in many trade rumours. Corey Brewer is a FA with skepticism on whether he should be re-signed. Mozgov is definitely out but Koufus has been playing horribly the past month and post scoring/ defence is a dire need. Randolph doesn't provide any upside for the team.

This offseason has so much potential. Hopefully, Masai will build a great team around Lawson, our future. It is obvious what Denver's needs are. He just has to commit to making tough trades and cuts. He proved it in the Carmelo trade but that was under pressure. Masai can easily say the current roster needs more time to develop and waste another regular season of 50+ wins with another first round exit.

I have no idea salary wise how or if these would work. But in terms of the Nuggets future roster, this is all we can be sure of:

Ty Lawson/ Andre Miller/

?/ Fournier

?/?/(Gallinari - injured)

Kenneth Faried/ ?

?/ JaVale McGee/?

Poll

Should the Nuggets keep Wilson Chandler?

Yes

7 votes

No, trade him

8 votes

15 votes | Poll has closed

What is wrong with George Karl?

2013-04-28T17:20:41Z

David Lee is out for the season. JaVale McGee got paid top dollar to stay in Denver. Can someone please explain to me why JaVale has not played the last 15+ minutes of games 2 and 3? If I recall right, he was an intricate part of the game 1 victory. Also, in game 3 in the fourth quarter, I swear the Warriors only attempted maybe 3 jump shots because they were getting to the bucket with ease. Why was this? No shot blocking presence was in. Game 2, Jarrett Jack wreaked havoc because no shot blocker was in, either. I don't get why George Karl has decided to neutralize the David Lee injury instead of exploit it! It doesn't make sense when you have McGee available to play. McGee is my favorite player and that's why I switched from a Wizards fan to Nuggets fan, so I'm aware of the stupid plays he can make on offense and defense, but his amazing plays on defense by far outweigh his dumb ones. Then on offense, if George Karl is concerned with him taking bad shots, just don't pass him the ball unless it's an alley oop. George Karl has been coaching since before I was born in 1991, so I would assume he would understand simple concepts like this, but I guess not.

Also, what is George Karl's love affair with Kosta Koufus? Last year, we were down 0-2 because of Koufous' horrendous play. Finally George Karl made the switch to only play McGee and Mozgov at center starting in game 3, but it was too late because even though we won 3 out of the next 4 games, it didn't matter because we were down 0-2, so we had to play the deciding game 7 in Los Angeles, but that is neither here nor there. You would think going into this season, the Nuggets would expand on that Mozgov, McGee rotation, so they be more comfortable with it in the playoffs especially since McGee got paid so much to stay, but in actuality, mcGee and Mozgov's roles have actually diminished. Anthony Randolph was also a good pick up for George Karl's uptempo style, but he barely even plays him. He'd rather play the slow and average on both sides of the ball Koufus. IT MAKES NO SENSE!

Nuggets vs. Warriors: Rating the Creating of Chaos in Game 3

2013-04-28T11:55:39Z

As a follow up to my recent fanpost The Denver Defense and Courting Chaos I had a look at game 3 and have analyzed the Denver lineups data to see if the most successful lineups in the game were also good at creating chaos on the defensive end.

If you want to know about what the the chaos% is trying to measure and how it is calculated, please check out my earlier fanpost.

Chaos Percentage

Observations:

The overall game chaos% was 1 percent under the season average. However if each half is calculated separately, it can be seen that the 1st half chaos% was high and the 2nd half was very low
This is completely consistent with the +12pts differential in the 1st half which included 8 steals and 20pts off turnovers followed by the -14pts in the 2nd half which included only 3 steals and a block and 10pts off turnovers

Game 3 Lineups

I have looked at the 9 Five man lineups that played at least 90secs in the game and focused on the Top Four Lineups by NetRtg in the game (3 positive lineups and the best negative Rtg lineup)

Click the graphic above to view large version (data sourced from NBA.com/stats and to allow comparison between lineups with different minutes, non % stats are listed at per minute rate)

Members of the top four Lineups mapped for comparison

Observations:

There are only 3 lineups out of the 9 that had a positive NetRtg
The top lineup ranked no1 in all the Rtg categories and the Chaos categories (steals, pts off TOs)
The top 4 lineups all ranked in the top 4 in Pts off TO and all were in the top 5 in steals
Iguodala was part of all four lineups, while Brewer, Faried, and Miller appeared in three out of four
None of the top four lineups has a high off, defensive or total rebound% indicating rebounds are not vital to lineup success or creating chaos

The most successful lineups were all very good at creating chaos indicating that aggressive defense is very important to the Nuggets success

Game Flow

Next I have taken the 'game flow' lineup information graphic from the PopcornMachine website I have added boxes to indicate when the best lineups were playing.

Observations:

As can be seen in the graphic the four best of the Nugget runs (13-2,8-0,8-1,6-1) all occurred when the chaos creating lineups were on the floor
Three of the four best runs occurred in the first half

This graphic also allows the Golden State lineups to be seen for those interested in looking at the match ups that played against the chaos lineups.

In conclusion, it is looking more and more like chaos matters to the success of this Denver team and it is a vital element to winning the series, and as someone who loves the Nuggets aggressive defensive style I look forward to Denver creating more chaos in the games ahead

If you want to know about what the the chaos% is trying to measure and how it is calculated, please check out my earlier fanpost.

Chaos Percentage

Observations:

The overall game chaos% was 1 percent under the season average. However if each half is calculated separately, it can be seen that the 1st half chaos% was high and the 2nd half was very low
This is completely consistent with the +12pts differential in the 1st half which included 8 steals and 20pts off turnovers followed by the -14pts in the 2nd half which included only 3 steals and a block and 10pts off turnovers

Game 3 Lineups

I have looked at the 9 Five man lineups that played at least 90secs in the game and focused on the Top Four Lineups by NetRtg in the game (3 positive lineups and the best negative Rtg lineup)

Click the graphic above to view large version (data sourced from NBA.com/stats and to allow comparison between lineups with different minutes, non % stats are listed at per minute rate)

Members of the top four Lineups mapped for comparison

Observations:

There are only 3 lineups out of the 9 that had a positive NetRtg
The top lineup ranked no1 in all the Rtg categories and the Chaos categories (steals, pts off TOs)
The top 4 lineups all ranked in the top 4 in Pts off TO and all were in the top 5 in steals
Iguodala was part of all four lineups, while Brewer, Faried, and Miller appeared in three out of four
None of the top four lineups has a high off, defensive or total rebound% indicating rebounds are not vital to lineup success or creating chaos

The most successful lineups were all very good at creating chaos indicating that aggressive defense is very important to the Nuggets success

Game Flow

Next I have taken the 'game flow' lineup information graphic from the PopcornMachine website I have added boxes to indicate when the best lineups were playing.

Observations:

As can be seen in the graphic the four best of the Nugget runs (13-2,8-0,8-1,6-1) all occurred when the chaos creating lineups were on the floor
Three of the four best runs occurred in the first half

This graphic also allows the Golden State lineups to be seen for those interested in looking at the match ups that played against the chaos lineups.