Nuggets third in ESPN's power rankings
by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Jan 23, 2012 11:48 AM MST
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http://espn.go.com/nba/powerrankings/_/year/2012/week/4
3 Denver
12-55
Last Week: 8They're a win in Sacramento away from a 5-0 road trip and sport the league's third-best record at 30-12 since the Melo trade last February. No wonder Frank Isola of the New York Daily News proclaimed Saturday night on Twitter that we should start calling it the Gallo trade.
Whoever wins the power rankings wins the title, right? Okay, so power rankings are meaningless. I agree. But they are lots of fun. Three is probably a bit high, I think they've been feasting on bad teams a bit. But they are winning the games they are supposed to win, and can't control the schedule.
Write respectfully of your SB Nation community and yourself.
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The Gallo Trade
I love it!
We see a wonderful sun-soaked city nestled at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. Enos sees nickels and dimes.
by Bob in Boulder on Jan 23, 2012 11:50 AM MST reply actions
Great idea
I’ll always call THE trade the “Gallo Trade” to irritate folks I know, but really its better termed “The Heist”
I'm pretty new to advanced basketball statistics
But I’m pretty enamored with Hollinger, also of ESPN, and he has the Nuggets at No. 8.
I think that is a bit too low — Memphis isn’t better than Denver, sorry — but No. 3 is a bit too high. Somewhere in there is about right.
Denver’s offense has been great, but it is the defense that has dropped off the map. Started with allowing a big first quarter a few Fridays ago to New Orleans on the road and the defensive intensity has been awol since, save a few spurts here and there in the crunch.
Earlier in the season I went out on a limb that Denver could be a good offensive team while still being a good defensive team, and with Denver allowing so many teams to shoot at a high percentage, I might just have to admit to being wrong.
It is a dangerous game to play when you rely on offense and outscoring the opponent alone to win you games.
Is your love worth the nausea it could bring?
Yea, looking at how many points the Nuggets give up per game is not a good way of
dissecting a good defense, the best way to do that is looking at the point differential, where we rank 5th in the league with a 5.5+ point differential, but another factor is the strength of our schedule, where our SOS is 20th in the league, which is no good from all of the bad teams we have been playing recently. The Lakers have had the hardest strength of schedule so far.
Playing high, fast paced offense DOES make you tired on the defensive end, so even though you could play good defense like you pointed out, which we have, it does make a team tired, no matter how young, deep and athletic your team is. The biggest factor is animist, how long can a team play at that kind of pace of fast pace offense and putting a lot of effort on the defensive end?
The most encouraging thing about the Nuggets this year, to me is that we have the second best road record in the NBA.
"I do not threaten, I merely state facts"
Denverstiffs- home of the most bipolar fan base on the internet
I have no idea how I spelled animist over stamina
What was I thinking?
"I do not threaten, I merely state facts"
Denverstiffs- home of the most bipolar fan base on the internet
ha
I was about to google “animist” so I could understand you there
"There's no way I would've ever called up Larry, called up Magic and said, 'Hey, look, let's get together and play on one team' ... I was trying to beat those guys." -Michael Jordan
by ParkHillNative on Jan 23, 2012 2:16 PM MST up reply actions
All good points
And I just hope the Nuggets training staff are freaks about conditioning. Conditioning isn’t fun. But I think if done right — and that is almost a full-time job in itself — Denver can play offense and defense at a fast pace.
Is your love worth the nausea it could bring?
re. defense
What concerns me is opponents’ fg percentage, and also just all the wide open 3-pointers they’re getting.
"There's no way I would've ever called up Larry, called up Magic and said, 'Hey, look, let's get together and play on one team' ... I was trying to beat those guys." -Michael Jordan
by ParkHillNative on Jan 23, 2012 2:17 PM MST up reply actions
The open 3's
was our undoing in the Spurs game, seemed we were doubling in the post every time, and every time they had a WIDE open 3
I need to double check
But I recall looking more into Hollinger’s methodology and he gives heavier weighting to a team’s record in the last ten games as well the strength of schedule vs. last ten teams played. In Memphis’s case, they’re on a lengthy win streak. Memphis is currently on a 6 game win streak with a tougher ten game strength of schedule than us, slightly. He also seems to favor point differential, which has been brought up a lot around here regarding our Nuggets before we eeked out a few wins by closer OT margins.
Collect only two trillion Stiff points and you too can unlock the secret of George Karl's rotations with the official George Karl Random Basketball Decoder Ring! Huzzah!
by Artimus Mangilord on Jan 23, 2012 2:43 PM MST up reply actions
Hollinger spells it out
His methodology is layed out in equation form to recreate and/or tweak, if you think certain factors deserve higher weightings than others.
Collect only two trillion Stiff points and you too can unlock the secret of George Karl's rotations with the official George Karl Random Basketball Decoder Ring! Huzzah!
by Artimus Mangilord on Jan 23, 2012 2:46 PM MST up reply actions
probably the better statistical measure of a team's performance
is either SRS (Basketball-Reference.com) or the Sagarin Ratings. SRS is transparent and easy to calculate, while Sagarin probably does a slightly better job with the numbers and incorporates home court advantage. Either way, looking at a team’s entire body of work is better. Also, Hollinger will have instances where a team drops several spots simply because a blowout drops out of the last 10 games, which is pretty silly.
i keep dancing on my own.
Hollinger weights the last 10 games very heavily (it will become the last 31.8% of games played at the 33 game mark), so it’s probably lower on the Nuggets than it should be, since most of Denver’s impressive performances are outside that weighted part. Two or three 15 point blowouts will easily put them in the top 5 again I think.
i keep dancing on my own.
Holinger admits it takes a number of games for his formula to be okay
that’s why he doesn’t do playoff odds until a good chunk of the season is done.
Formerly KS and CS
by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Jan 23, 2012 2:52 PM MST up reply actions
I'm a little lost
I love deep statistics and believe they offer views that infrom in ways that crude stats dont. The involved stats can be debated, refuted, parsed and barbecued in any way you want to. Ok, now…
Isnt there one stat, team stat, that is really really telling? Just one, I think. A stat that is very hard to argue with. Isnt that stat team record? Wins and losses.
Hope I didnt just fail to read similar non acute observation.
Yes
Wins.
As Tiddy mentioned, it isn’t any quantified team stat or the top spot in an aggregated list who wins the championship and brings home trophies, it is wins.
And while basketball stats are great and fun and you can gleam a lot from them, I think that because of the nature of the game and the pace it is played that statistics can only tell part of the story. Good defensive is especially hard to quantify.
So really all that matters is winning. But passing the ball well and making a high percentage of shots, two things Denver is doing, go a long way toward winning and championships.
Is your love worth the nausea it could bring?
That reminds me of a picture
"I do not threaten, I merely state facts"
Denverstiffs- home of the most bipolar fan base on the internet
If anything, the Heat are ranked too high.
Blah blah injuries, if you can’t win, you can’t win.
"I do not threaten, I merely state facts"
Denverstiffs- home of the most bipolar fan base on the internet
Nugs ranked #5 on NBA .com power rankings
I think thats where we are right now. D should pick up. I think a lot of the inconsistency has to do with the injuries we are suffering. I don’t know if we will be fully healthy, but defense is not bad (#12 in the league).
If we can improve that to top 5 even top 8 I won’t be complaining. I think manimal will help if he gets PT, and also Chandler will help (sounds like we might be keeping him this year in case Fernandez leaves).
Gotta love the haterz. Keep that hate a comin'
I was also going to say you have to admit that when we need D
It is there for us. It is kinda our go-to player as Gallo (get to the line/hit clutch shots)and Ty (playmaker in the clutch i.e. kickout to Harrington for clutch 3) develop into that role.
Even in our loses (not counting Utah and NO games which seemed to be really annoying aberrations), in Portland our D was very good just Gallo or Ty couldn’t hit a shot, same with LAL and even the SA game (bad D for 3 quarters, but we got back in the game with 4th quarter D and if the refs called it right we might have won that game).
Gotta love the haterz. Keep that hate a comin'
I hope we can keep Rudy over Chandler
Rudy has 10x the playmaking ability of Wil, and I like that he plays with a little bit of an edge.
by JBnuggs on Jan 23, 2012 2:25 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Rankings are fun
Stein’s rankings are really more for entertainment than for analysis. He looks mostly at the team’s record and what they did the previous week.
Hollinger’s rankings are way more accurate, IMO
Hollinger did have us at #1 last year
He just didn’t account for the inexperience most of the Nuggets players had in the playoffs. I mean Gallo, Chandler, and Felton flat out disappeared especially the latter two.
Its an experience thing and I am glad we got that OKC playoff series out of the way, this team is way tougher than last year’s version.
Gotta love the haterz. Keep that hate a comin'
He doesn't have a quantitative factor (yet) to account for playoff inexperience
Collect only two trillion Stiff points and you too can unlock the secret of George Karl's rotations with the official George Karl Random Basketball Decoder Ring! Huzzah!
by Artimus Mangilord on Jan 23, 2012 3:07 PM MST up reply actions
That's because it doesn't really matter
to the extent that experience helps a team in the playoffs, it will also be reflected in its regular season performance.
i keep dancing on my own.
I would disagree with that
Playoffs are a whole new intensity level than the regular season. Everyone comes to play in the playoffs and the fans really do affect the outcomes of games. Playoff experience is definitely necessary in order to succeed in it. OKC got that Lakers series out of the way and played better. The Dallas comeback is something you don’t see in the regular season and will make OKC tougher.
And the new Nuggets needed it when they got beat by OKC.
Gotta love the haterz. Keep that hate a comin'
Yes
Remember it took Melo a couple of years to adjust to the difference in the playoffs. If you haven’t been, you aren’t ready for the level of intensity. Just attending a playoff game as a fan is exhausting. It’s the difference between about fourth grade, and your freshman year of college.
Formerly KS and CS
by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Jan 23, 2012 3:43 PM MST up reply actions
IMO many pundits, and us, who try to understand playoff performances
and predict them are about as informed as people who believe fervently in how coin flips will turn out. When they were right, its, I told you so and explanations for how they knew, when wrong, same nonsense.
Frankly, only for great or terrible teams can you predict series outcomes with confidence. For the rest the chances are about 50/50.
I suggest that Nuggets chances of winning a title are roughly .6 × .5 × .4 = 12%. Heat chances are .95 × ..6 × .55 = 31%. We’re good, competitive. Heat are super talented.
I’d personally reduce our chances to about 7 or 8% unless we develop a really consistently productive Center. Then all bets are on. Make sense?
Other Power ranking rankings for us.
1. John Hollinger- 8th, last week: 8th
2. John Schuhmann-
Denver (12-5)
Pace: 98.9 (1), Off: 105.1 (3), Def: 98.9 (13)
Despite a rash of injuries, the Nuggets went a 4-0 on their trip east. And to every Denver fan’s delight, Danilo Gallinari (37 points and 11 boards) outplayed Carmelo Anthony on Saturday. George Karl played just seven guys in New York. His team has three days off before visiting the Kings on Wednesday. RANKED:5TH PREVIOUS: 12TH
3. David Aldridge-
4) Denver (10) [4-0]: Al Harrington averaged 20.3 points on 50 percent shooting as Nuggets sweep a four-game eastern swing. RANKED: 4TH PREVIOUS: 10TH
4. Tom Ziller-
Denver: 3rd The Nuggets were supposed to be a dominant home team that won enough on the road to remain competitive. Instead, they have begun a five-game road trip with four straight wins and have a few days off before visiting Sacramento.
5. Chris Sheridan-
Beat the Kings, and that’ll be a 5-0 road trip. Danilo Gallinari went for a career high 37 at MSG on Saturday night, and the Carmelo Anthony trade never looked worse for the Knicks. Timofey Mozgov had 3 dunks in first 5 minutes. Al Harrington was a closer. Imagine if they still had J.R. Smith and Wilson Chandler? Lead NBA in assists and 2nd in scoring. RANKED: 4TH LAST WEEK: 8TH
6. Kurt Helin-
2. Nuggets (12-5, LW 7). Winners of four in a row on an East Coast swing, highlighted by Danilo Gallinari (37 points, 11 boards) outplaying Carmelo Anthony in New York. They are doing it by getting shots at the rim — Denver takes 44.3 percent of its shots within five feet of the rim, by far the highest percentage in the league (as noted by John Schuhmann at NBA.com). The League average is around 32 percent.
7. Jeff Sagarin –
6 Denver Nuggetshttp://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba1112.htm?loc=interstitialskip
So Kurt Helin has us ranked 2nd, which is the highest of all the top basketball writers.
"I do not threaten, I merely state facts"
Denverstiffs- home of the most bipolar fan base on the internet
Thanks for getting all that together
Your comment was more than the original post.
Formerly KS and CS
by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Jan 23, 2012 3:45 PM MST up reply actions
Seems like most of them have us as 1st or 2nd best team in the West
I think that we will probably be 2nd in the West if we stay healthy.
Gotta love the haterz. Keep that hate a comin'
I think a Chicago Vs Denver Finals would be the most exciting
Finals matchup. Forget Heat vs Lakers, The Bulls vs Denver would be a very intense finals, with a lot of defense and offense to boot.
"I do not threaten, I merely state facts"
Denverstiffs- home of the most bipolar fan base on the internet
I know why you think so. Here's a another
What about us vs Philly? That would be a war. mano a mano. There would be blood spilled.
That would be a good one
but I think the 76ers are missing a solid rotation big man from a finals appearance.
I do think they make the second round this year though.
"I do not threaten, I merely state facts"
Denverstiffs- home of the most bipolar fan base on the internet
Interesting tidbit for sadistic people
like me:)
I have no real place to post this and so this will do.
Ray Felton, who I believe was the player most responsible (but not the only one) for costing us the series vs OKC, is having a disastrous year. Check out his stats for this year and playoffs vs OKC. They are beyond hideous.
Why do I care?
Because RF who I supported when the Knicks got him, showed such horrible character, such a “me only” attitude that any such similar display by the often maligned Dre cant hold a candle to what we had to endure from Felton.
My instant diagnosis is that Ray is one of the few pros who wildly over estimates his ability. He shares that with another former Nugget.
No, I dont see at as just a human weakness or a sign of understandable pride. It directly led to many instances wherein Felton conducted himself on the court as if he thought he was Kobe but performed like a side a of beef.
Too bad because Ray has ability and is a tough dude. He just has to align reality with his fantasies of himself.
End of rant.
Thanks you, drive home safely.
he was hands down the #1 factor in our crunch-time meltdowns vs OKC.
by Rainbow skyline on Jan 23, 2012 10:43 PM MST up reply actions
Karl?
For leaving him in there?
I know, I know. AAA was injured, etc. But ugh. I am getting angry thinking about Felton taking contested mid-range jumpers in the fourth quarter in some of those games.
Is your love worth the nausea it could bring?
wanna get angrier?
Just check out Felts stat line for the playoffs. I’ve never seen anything worse from a solid player. Scary bad.
Wanna smile. Check out his stats for this year. Also scary bad.
Yes, it was Karl’s fault. At no time, did he ever glare at Ray and say “WTF are you doing?”?
Camby?
Formerly KS and CS
by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Jan 23, 2012 10:52 PM MST up reply actions
Kmart?
Formerly KS and CS
by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Jan 23, 2012 10:53 PM MST up reply actions
J.R.?
Formerly KS and CS
by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Jan 23, 2012 10:53 PM MST up reply actions
A.C.?
Formerly KS and CS
by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Jan 23, 2012 10:53 PM MST up reply actions
i said it at the trade
and i will say it again. we fleeced portland in this deal. i live in corvallis (about an hour+ south of portland for those that dont know) and the blazzers are probably my second favorite team after the nuggets. a lot of people are unhappy with felton, that he is too out of control and is a chucker. for whatever faults or bad games he may have, i would much rather have dre than ray
that's why he worked out well for the knicks
of course even at their best… the knicks were a .500 team with felt, gallo, amar’e and co.
this ranking from espn actually pisses me off
We should be at least #2. THe two teams ahead of us or 1. chi-town. 2 miami. THe reason we should be 2 over miami? We beat them first of all. Second, we have a better overall record. Third, we went 4-0 last week (all on the road), while miami went 2-1 (loss at home).
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