What would a Gallinari extension mean for the Nuggets?
The following tweet from Chris Tomasson got me really thinking about the future of the Nuggets:
Danilo Gallinari who wants to re-sign with Denver represented by Arn Tellem Wouldn't be surprised if they seek at least Nene money 5 yr 67m
So, if Gallinari does re-sign with the Nuggets for that projected figure, which in my opinion, isn't very unrealistic as Galo is without question more valuable to the Nuggets than Nenê is, especially going forward, where does that leave the Nuggets?
Courtesy of HoopsHype.com, here is a look at Denver's salaries for the foreseeable future:
As it stands, the Nuggets have ~$20.5 million each season committed to Nenê & Arron Afflalo for the next 4 years. (As I'm sure we all already knew)
If Gallinari is given an extension/re-signs with the Nuggets in the neighborhood of $13 million/year, give or take a few hundred thousand, that brings a total of ~$33 million each season committed to Nenê, Afflalo & Gallinari through the 2015-16 season.
Ty Lawson's contract comes up after next season, and he will probably be due for quite the payday. It would be foolish of the Nuggets to develop him into a great PG for 4 seasons only to let him walk. Lawson's worth in 2013 is all speculation right now, but let's just hypothetically say he lands somewhere between $10-$13 million/year.
For 3 seasons, 2013-14 through 2015-16, the Nuggets will presumably have ~$44 million each year locked up in 4 players--Nenê, Afflalo, Gallinari & Lawson. Toss in Harrington & Andersen's contracts (assuming neither is amnestied), and the total rises to ~$56 million between those 6 players for 2013-14, then down to ~$52 million in 2014-15 between the 5 (Nenê, Afflalo, Gallinari, Lawson & Harrington) after Andersen expires.
How do you feel about those figures as a Nuggets fan?
Those 4 players (Nenê, Afflalo, Gallinari & Lawson) currently take up ~$26 million, a projected $20 million less than they will in 2 seasons from now. The Nuggets front office has been able to put together a great, deep supporting cast around that core with their current figures--but what is going to happen when Gallinari & Lawson are off their rookie salaries?
It was part of the reason why I didn't like the Nenê signing this past summer. I love Nenê, but he is what he is. About 15 PPG & 8 RPG, extremely talented, but lacking an aggressiveness that could make him one of the best big men in the league. Was it really smart to lock him up for $13 million/year over 5 seasons? No.
Lawson & Gallinari were going to need to be paid soon. It was obvious.
The $44 million occupied by those 4 will not leave the Nuggets much wiggle room to fill out a supporting cast, which then brings up the question, how good will Lawson & Gallinari be? We already know what the 26-year old Afflalo and 29-year old Nenê are. The improvements of Lawson & Gallinari are even more crucial to the Nuggets' future than most of you may have thought.
Write respectfully of your SB Nation community and yourself.
56 comments
|
5 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
well at least we're not NY
They have 44 mil locked up for 2 players! I trust in Ujiri to make it work.
consider it the way of the NBA. i wouldnt be surprised if there is a “lawson or gallo?” decision made at some point. maybe both get extended but one is traded if we dont make noise in the postseason within the next three years.
On the bright side: there is no chance the Thunder retain Westbrook, Durant and Harden due to this same issure. I’m guessing Westbrook is gone by the deadline next year (I think he’s got a year left on his rookie contract)
add in ibaka to that too
hes in for a pay raise.
Good post
I rec’d it, it’s food for thought.
My personal feeling is that the Nuggets probably don’t quite have what it takes to do major damage in the playoffs this year. So then the question definitely becomes, what is the plan going forward?
"There's no way I would've ever called up Larry, called up Magic and said, 'Hey, look, let's get together and play on one team' ... I was trying to beat those guys." -Michael Jordan
Trade him, Moz and some change
For a real big?
Excellent information and perspective
And I thank you for it. At the same time, you’re making it tough to be a happy-go-lucky fan with vague hope for the future. I say that tongue in cheek, but it’s seriously true that the more I learn about the business of pro sports, the harder it is to enjoy it.
Moving on, I wonder so very much about all the factors that come into play when a front office negotiates a new contract (or extension) with an established, popular team member who is somewhere along the continuum of important to crucial to the franchise’s success. One of the things I wonder is just how broadly defined “success” may be.
The Nenê contract you didn’t like is a perfect case in point. Needless to say, an NBA team could do much worse than have a player of Nenê’s caliber in the starting line-up. Yet his limitations are pretty clear. He’s rarely that player who imposes his will on the game’s outcome. Based on that assessment then, Nenê is important to the Nuggets’ success, yet he’s far from crucial if success is defined as putting a team on the floor that has the very best opportunity to win a championship.
This leads to my question about “success” possibly being defined much more broadly by Nuggets management. Nenê is extremely popular with the fans who pay the bills, and he’s been loyal to the organization. Bringing him back was good business for the Nuggets in ways that are not directly related to the quality of play, especially since we’re in no way suggesting that Nenê’s performance prevents putting a great team on the floor.
Yet since his large contract may hamper the team’s ability to bring in that one player who is crucial, well, you see where I’m going with this, right? Are the Nuggets’ chances of winning it all being compromised by management’s other considerations? I seriously doubt they would ever trade Nenê to make something big happen. The FO took a pretty big PR risk by including Billups in the Anthony trade, so it’s a good bet they believe they’ve exhausted fan goodwill in that regard.
Any thoughts on this murky question that may have no real answer?
No. More. Stickyball.
amen to this
the more I learn about the business of pro sports, the harder it is to enjoy it.
And yeah, your line of questioning is good. Are the Nuggets really, seriously trying to contend for a championship? Or do they figure they can do decent business by putting a fairly competitive, middle-of-the-road product on the floor, and that’s good enough for them?
I still facepalm when I think about the whole fiasco around the ‘09 WCF. Remember the whole deal with the WWE? Stan had agreed to let them use the Pepsi Center for an event in late May, apparently figuring the Nuggets would be out of the playoffs by then. It makes me think the Nuggets made it that far that year purely by accident. Upper management was happy just making the playoffs, and wasn’t intending for the team to make it to the conference finals.
"There's no way I would've ever called up Larry, called up Magic and said, 'Hey, look, let's get together and play on one team' ... I was trying to beat those guys." -Michael Jordan
by ParkHillNative on Jan 17, 2012 12:51 PM MST up reply actions
I feel good about this.
Nene is locked up through his prime. AAA is also. Gallo wants to stay, I think Ty will too. Yes, that is alot of money, but I think they are all tradeable assets. AAA is the worst deal of them all and he could be moved very easily.
All of those players are remarkably efficient, good defenders and team players. Gallo, Ty and Nene are great passers for their position with great a/t ratios. Harrington looks like he will run away with 6th man of the year and he is locked up on a very team friendly 7mil/yr average. Bird can be amnestied. Hamilton and Faried are locked up on cheap 4yr deals about 1.5mil/yr each. Next year’s 1st will be on a cheap contract. The Knicks look like garbage, which means their 2014 1st could be gold. Bird is our only bad deal now that Al is playing the way he is, and he can be amnesty’d at any time. Future is bright…
Gallinari is great
Pay him, pay lawson, trade andre miller to a contender who needs a PG. The Nuggets are incredibly deep and their bench could start for most teams. It’s hard to even imagine how they could get any better. Right now they’re weak at SG and C but you’d think Afflalo and Nene would return to their form from last season unless they have contractitis.
I thought about it for awhile
what if there comes a time when we have to decide between Gallo and Lawson? I don’t think that anyone wants to live with that prospect, but I feel that there never has to be a decision, simply because Nene can be moved if we don’t have the cap space. Nene is a tradeable asset and he really doesn’t belong on this young core, even though he is nice, he isn’t someone you build a time around, he is someone you add to win a championship if you are already competing. Heck, you could trade him for a top 10 draft pick next year and pick up a center on a good rookie contract or something of the such.
I hope it doe not come down to that, but beggars can’t be choosers.
"I do not threaten, I merely state facts"
Denverstiffs- home of the most bipolar fan base on the internet
build a team*
"I do not threaten, I merely state facts"
Denverstiffs- home of the most bipolar fan base on the internet
I anticipate some of our bench as well as a starter will be traded
For picks next year. Teams will get desperate.
DenverStiffs > MileHighReport
by KevinAwesome on Jan 19, 2012 2:09 AM MST up reply actions
hmmm
If the issue is actually money through the next five years, the wise move would have been simply not to extend Afflalo. The skill set of an average to above average two way shooting guard is way easier to replace without sacrificing all that much in terms of performance than a top 7 center.
Shooting guards around Arron’s level change teams in free agency or through trades all the time (George Hill went for a mid-first rounder, Rudy Fernandez was a throw-in on a salary dump, Vince Carter was an inexpensive waiver wire pickup, Daniel Green was a D-League pickup, the Grizz are paying Tony Allen an incredibly reasonable deal). You could plug any of these guys in for Afflalo and not see a substantial dropoff, and there will be more productive SGs changing hands next year, and probably some who are ready to go late in the draft if you put them in the right role.
Nene, on the other hand, would be nearly impossible to replace with a reasonable facsimile. If you look at his +/- stats or his boxscore stats it becomes fairly clear that the Nuggets are not the same team without him on the court, and bigs of his caliber go early in the first round even when incredibly raw. They also get paid on the free agent market and are nearly impossible to come by in trades. The best the Nuggets could hope for would be finding a Marcin Gortat type whose own team undervalues him just because he can’t get minutes.
This isn’t to criticize Afflalo’s contract, but I think the fact that ownership went all in on those two guys means they are similarly committed to going the distance with the Gallinari/Lawson pair and trying to win as much as possible with those four + possibly Mozgov/Faried/Hamilton/Stone going forward.
i keep dancing on my own.
You can still move AAA
A lot of teams would be willing to take his contract simply because he is a starting 2 on more than 70% of basketball teams.
Brewer seems to bring the same things AAA does and you can tell he wants it more because Brewer is playing for his NBA career to be extended for as long as it can and you can tell he is putting his heart into every game. AAA now has the big contract so he does not have to worry so much about money right now, not saying that his effort hasn’t been there, just that his survival (got to put food on the table) mentality isn’t going to be there like it will be with Brewer.
I agree that Nene pushes this team into a legit playoff contender and without him it will take awhile to get someone to replace in the front court who brings what he does despite the criticism he takes. I’m just thinking that if Gallo and Lawson are extended here for a long time together, than we do have the time to draft a big with potential and have him play alongside Gallo and Lawson. AAA needs to elevate his role a bit more though to justify his contract, I’m not saying he needs to turn into the next Kobe or even be a very strong 2nd go to guy, but he needs to be the strong third option to Gallo and Lawson going forward.
"I do not threaten, I merely state facts"
Denverstiffs- home of the most bipolar fan base on the internet
We Just have to take this a season at a time and trust Josh and Masai
They have made every move correctly, and they will handle free agency well over the next few years. You just can’t max every player – -maybe 2-3. I like the idea of building around Ty and Gallo. Nene and AAA are great, but very tradeable for less expensive but comparable pieces. I still think in a year or two, Moz, KK and Manimal will form a nice trio of young, talented post players. Wouldn’t mind seeing Nuggs get a true shot blocker like McGee or Jordan. We have lots of young assets and are in better shape than most teams cap wise.
Do you own an NBA videogame. I really think you’d enjoy the trade features on those games. You always want to trade everyone!
Nate_Timmons on Twitter
DenverStiffs.com
Colorado Sports Guys podcast We're on iTunes (free!)
by Nate Timmons on Jan 24, 2012 12:14 AM MST up reply actions 2 recs
What pick is he going to be?
- overall? Do I want to trade proven talent on a team that is currently sitting #2 in the West for a chance at a guy who may or may not be good someday in the NBA?
No thanks.
Figure out some other trades please. Maybe Denver can swap a future 2nd for Drummond?
Nate_Timmons on Twitter
DenverStiffs.com
Colorado Sports Guys podcast We're on iTunes (free!)
by Nate Timmons on Jan 24, 2012 10:05 AM MST up reply actions
How do you figure the Magic as a lottery team?
Are you assuming that they are trading away Dwight? Because currently, and I would hypothesize forward, they are a top 4 eastern conference team.
I bet ice is Nate just trolling us all.
"I do not threaten, I merely state facts"
Denverstiffs- home of the most bipolar fan base on the internet
Ok, lets say the Nuggets trade Nene and get the #5 pick...
Is that player going to be better than Nene? And if Denver trades Nene they’ll likely drop from #2 out West to the lottery as well. Don’t see where you are going with your rebuild of the team. Why blow up a team that is looking good?
Nate_Timmons on Twitter
DenverStiffs.com
Colorado Sports Guys podcast We're on iTunes (free!)
by Nate Timmons on Jan 24, 2012 8:20 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Do you hate everyone over 25 or something?
Why do you always want to swap proven players for unproven ones?
"All you fuckers who think we won't be good anymore, fuck you" - GK
Afflalo is Boss. But currently slumming in a high-level management position.
by love4nuggets on Jan 25, 2012 8:18 AM MST up reply actions
Ummm...Nene is one of the best passing bigs out there,
and is unselfish to a fault. Most of us would rather he have more “black hole” tendencies and play more aggressively in the post.
Faried hasn't played a lick ... he's no Nene (yet).
Pretty wacky idea. Lottery bound is what you want?
Nate_Timmons on Twitter
DenverStiffs.com
Colorado Sports Guys podcast We're on iTunes (free!)
by Nate Timmons on Jan 25, 2012 10:13 AM MST up reply actions
Miller comes off the books and we can amnesty Bird, I think we will be okay. No matter what the cap situation, arent we always eligible for MLE players? What is it like 5.76 million that we can pay any player given our cap situation?
You can look at the Heat who had their salary eaten up with the Big 3, but were still able to bring in players like Battier and Mike Miller to fill out the roster.
The only salary Im not too excited about is AAA. I love the guy, but he is probably not worth what he will be making for the next four years. If someone is looking for a salary dump down the road, he is your guy.
It seems like SGs at his level arent too hard to come by, especially with us having a NYK 1st round pick coming up.
Nuggets mo
Has been to not sign players to deals before they hit free agency. Hoping that changes for Gallo, as there will be a lot of teams that would be willing to give a max deal to him I imagine.
If we could sign him to a deal that averages $10-11 million a season, should probably do it.
no you have to either start 2 all-star games or make 2 all-nba teams. Or win the MVP. http://espn.go.com/chicago/nba/story/_/id/7294815/chicago-bulls-derrick-rose-surprised-derrick-rose-rule
i keep dancing on my own.
Well, obviously I'm off in my math somewhere, then, but there's no way
that a 5/78m contract fits with 25%.
because you can get 4% raises
salary cap is 58 million, 1/4 of that is 14.5 million, if you factor in the raises it’s about right.
i keep dancing on my own.
Russscot
My understanding is that the max salary under the new CBA for guys coming off their rookie contract, is 25% of the cap or $9,000,000 whichever is greater. The 25% is greater at $14.5 million.
Other teams can only offer 4 years instead of 5, and can only offer 4.5% increases instead of 7.5%.
So $10-11 million all things considered would be possible and I think a fair contract. There’s some talk Gallo could get a Nene deal or one that even exceeded it if he were to hit free agency.

by 
















