Like the rest of you, this lockout has left me devoid of NBA news and uncertain of the future of the Nuggets roster. With Kenyon Martin, Nene, J.R. Smith, Arron Afflalo, and Wilson Chandler capable of leaving - there is much uncertainty as to what the roster will look like and who will lead. May I present the case for Ty Lawson as our future All Star because let's face it - without a marketable face, the NBA refs will reward twice as many foul shots to the opposing team in every Game 5.
When I watch Ty play, I see a combination of the fast penetration scoring that a player like Derrick Rose provides and also the passing and outside shooting as well as body type of Chris Paul. I will compare the three based on similiar amount of time in the league.
"One day, espn will call me the best point guard in the game, then they'll change their minds when I get injured."
MPG FG% 3pt% FT% AST REB Pts
Paul: 36.0 .430 .282 .847 7.8 5.1 16.1
Rose: 37.0 .475 .222 .788 6.7 3.9 18.8
Lawson: 22.0 .515 .410 .757 3.1 1.9 8.3
Now looking at these three during their rookie year, we see that Lawson is much more efficient than the MVP and the "best NBA pg", but he only played 22 minutes game. Paul and Rose both have higher pts,asts, and reb, but they also played 1.66 times more minutes. If we adjusted ty's minutes to match the other two, we get
Lawson: 36.5 .515 .410 .757 5.1 3.15 13.8
"I could've been rookie of the year, if the Wolves didn't trade me to Denver"
Now we can more accurately compare Ty. These are very respectable numbers but not quite as high as the other two. Part of the reason maybe Paul and Rose were instantly the "man" on their teams while Ty had to give up the ball to you know who and Chauncey Billups. Even so, these are very respectable stats.
Now let's look at how these players all grew their sophomore years:
"I'm the best point guard! Put me into this post!"
MPG FG% 3pt% FT% AST REB Pts
Paul: 36.8 .437 .350 .818 8.9 4.3 17.3
Rose: 36.8 .489 .267 .766 6.0 3.7 20.8
Lawson: 26.3 .503 .404 .764 4.7 2.6 11.7
(post trade) 29.7 .516 .475 .880 7.0 3.2 16.0
This was a strange season where Lawson went from the bench to the starting role, but never had the majority of minutes at point guard. His stats post trade are severely different from his season averages. Once again if we adjust Ty's post trade states to reflect 36.8 minutes a game we get:
(post trade) 36.8 .516 .475 .880 8.7 4.0 19.8
If we compare these adjusted stats to that of Paul and Rose, Ty is more efficient then both in his 2nd year across the board fg,3pt, ft %. His rebounds at 4.0 are right on pair with rose and Cp3. and 8.7 assists makes him a better "point" than rose and about equal to Paul in the same stage. Ty is also a better scorer at this point than Paul and just slightly under rose. CP3 and D-Rose never get close to Ty in efficiency in any season. Rose averages 17 shots a game, Paul averages 14. Ty averages 7 currently.
As long as Ty gets at least 33 minutes a game and takes 14 shots not 7 a games while continuing to make assists and other little things. His stats will be virtually indistinguishable and maybe better than Rose and Paul. We can project his stat line to look like next season: 33 .505 .440 .910 7.0 4.0 21.8
So, as long as someone doesn't mess up that growth ...
Yes, I did the math to make those projections based on proportions, they're not guesses.
"I'm the MVP!"
What is the highest level Lawson will reach?
Good point guard (43 votes)
NBA All Star (106 votes)
Regular Season MVP (4 votes)
NBA Finals MVP (18 votes)
All of the Above (by special request) (10 votes)
181 total votes