For Arron Afflalo, it's time to shine

I’m very excited to see him back! Does anyone know if the game is televised tonight, and if so, what channel?

Hollinger is reporting that the incentives are very unlikely to be reached and the guaranteed is only 37 million. Minor accounting difference.

It would be reasonable to expect AAA to increase production to 15.5 PPG, 4 boards, 3 assists with 43% 3pt and 80+% ft

You look around the league and look at guys who are similiar. JET, Jrich, Ray Allen. Maybe AAA cannot reach 20pg, but 15? Thats one more basket and 1 more free throw a game. Compared to these other players, we just got a steal.

Arron Afflalo to Nuggets, five years, $43 million: Thumbs down

First, semantics: I’m told this deal contains $37 million in real money and another $6 million in unlikely bonuses, which makes it a bit more palatable.

A bit. Look, I like Afflalo a lot — he’s a great complementary player because he plays defense and makes open shots. Winning teams need that. By all accounts he’s a high-character hard worker, as well. I’m sure the Nuggets thought to themselves, “If we’re going to make a mistake, let’s make it with a guy like this.”

With all that said … this is a mistake. Afflalo is not more than a midlevel player and is not about to become more. If I had to describe him briefly, I’d say something like, “Trying to become this decade’s Raja Bell, but not quite there yet.” That’s not a $40 million player. (Bell, for one, never made more than the midlevel exception.)

What’s more puzzling is that the Nuggets had effectively won. The season is about to start and nobody had yet offered Afflalo an offer sheet. I wasn’t privy to the negotiations, but I’m not sure why they felt compelled to go so high at such a late date; it sure seems like they were bidding against themselves. The only way to top Denver at this price would have been to offer a four-year offer sheet at nearly $10 million a year; nobody was doing that.

In fact, nobody had offered him anything because they figured the Nuggets would just match it. This is the power of restricted free agency, and why teams like the Nuggets, Sixers and Kings blew opportunities to keep good players at below-market rates. The Nuggets hurt themselves here on another level as well, as they’ve inadvertently set the floor for Danilo Gallinari’s contract extension.

Moreover, giving him five years makes this deal a massive risk; Afflalo is 26, and role players don’t reliably maintain their ability into their 30s. He comes off a season in which his true shooting percentage (TS%) was a scintillating 62.0; on the other hand, he had never before had a PER above 11 and one-year TS% rises often sink right back to earth the next.

Defensively, Afflalo has value because he’s tough and knows what he’s doing; he’s definitely above average. But his athletic gifts are modest, and that prevents him from being an elite stopper.

Overall, I don’t get it. Denver is still set up for an excellent regular season — more on that when my Western Conference preview goes up. Afflalo will play a role in that, so in the short term keeping him is a plus. I just have a hard time swallowing that he’ll be worth anywhere near $8 million when he’s 30, and Denver isn’t a market where you can afford mistakes like that.

Gallo, nene, ty and maybe even miller or rudy will average more points than aaron. he doenst rebound very well, nor is he an above average passer. in fact i don’t like the ball in his hands when he’s not shooting it….

but the most interesting thing in my opinion is that he’s only an average perimeter defender according to hollingers metrics. only numbers…but still…

I remember a while ago someone suggesting that organizations should front-load contracts during times that they have money. The rationale is that it pays the player during the time that they are most productive and makes it easier to unload mistakes in the future and makes the players much more tradeable the further they are into the contract. I think AA’s and Nene’s are great examples where that would be the best strategy. The Nuggets have excess cash this year, and could afford to over-pay up front right now. Without looking at cap space, perhaps they should have considered structuring Nene’s 65 million something like 25,15, 10, 10 and 5. Likewise, Aflalo could have been structured something like 13, 12, 8, 7 and 6. The only question would be the long-term loyalty you’d have with players making so little at the end of their contract, but would leave the team free from being tied to dead weight long-term a la KMart.

but i can’t imagine many people saying that given the same amount of money, they would rather have the majority of their money later rather than now.

Re-signing your own player: salary can decrease by max of 10.5% per year based on the first year salary.

Signing free agent: salary can decrease by max of 8% per year based on the first year salary.

These numbers refer to the old CBA, but I haven’t heard anything about them being changed. Newsman35 has a good point, but his numbers wouldn’t work.
With the 10.5% annual decrease, Nene’s 67M contract could have a max front-load from 17 in year one to 10 in year five, more or less.
Afflalo’s 43M deal could range from 10 to 7 over five years, more or less.

Sometimes teams with cap space to spare have slipped around these limits by calling part of the deal a “signing bonus” that is awarded in the first year. This in effect is jusy another way of front-loading. Apparently Nick Collison’s deal is structured like this.

For the Nuggets, it would certainly be easier to move a 34 year-old Nene at 10M than at the 5-year average of 13.5M or a back-loaded fith year at 15M+.