For those of you who haven't heard, the nba players have disbanded, and have decided to sue the NBA in courts. With the lockout still in full effect, the bargaining process will now fall to long court dates spaced far apart and lawyers doing the bargaining. This leaves the very real possibility that the 2011-2012 season may never happen. Source:http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/7234180/nba-lockout-players-not-accept-deal-seek-disband-billy-hunter-says So what now? There is one thing we know for sure. The 2012 NBA Draft will still occur.
Kenneth Faried had lofty dreams of becoming the Rookie of the Year. It may not be as easy with 120 incoming rookies in the 2012-2013 season.
Without a 2011-2012 season, the question, quickly becomes: What will be the draft order? What makes this even more crucial is the fact that this incoming rookie class is said to be the best since the 2003 draft. Several Options have been rumored to have been discussed, but none has been officially picked.
#1 Keep the draft order the same as last year.
Although, Cleavland drafted first, the Clippers did win last year's draft. if the order was to be kept the same, the Clipper would be adding the next great center, Andre Drummond to an already rising star in PF Blake Griffin. Obviously this isn't fair.
Spin on the Nuggets: We would once again be drafting 22nd overall. A pick this low would normally be the result of a 50 win season and a playoff berth. Without playing the actual season, we have no idea if this is where the Nuggets would have normally picked.
#2 Average the picks of the last 5 years.
This method would accurately work for consistently good teams such as the Lakers, Celtics, Spurs, Mavs... a few others. Of course, a few others would have an unfair advantage. Average the last 5 years for the Thunder, and you get the 11th overall pick. Even worse the Knicks would have the 10th overall pick. Not only would lotto talents be added to playoff teams, but the Grizzlies were supposed to take the Knicks 2012 "protected pick". This would delay the Knicks to giving their 1st round pick to the grizzlies in 2013, and their next pick 1st round pick to Denver in....2015. Cleavland would end up with a pick in the late 20s. I can't imagine Gilbert would be happy with that.
Spin on the nuggets: What can I say another draft pick in the 20s. A delay of the Knick's 1st round pick to at least 2015. The Nugget's direct division foe, the thunder gets stronger. This is the worst scenario in my opinion.
#3 Base the draft order on a team's salary commitment.
Will Massive 6ft 11 center Andre Drummond man the Nugget's middle in 2012-2013?
A massive part of this lockout mess has been salary commitments. This system rewards teams who have been more aware and "smart" spenders. There is a trend that the stronger teams in the league also have more salary committed. In this scenario, the Lakers have the last pick in the draft easily. The only bad team with plenty of salary I can think of is the pistons. They would not like this scenario.
Spin on the Nuggets: With Gallinari, Miller, and Koufos, all expiring at season's end. This is undoubtedly the ideal scenario as the nuggets will end up with the #1 overall pick for the first time in franchise history and the opportunity to draft our first franchise center since Mutombo. This same reason may also kill option 3. The Nuggets have made 8 straight playoff appearances. Not many teams would be happy to see them pick up the top overall pick and may be the ultimate reason why this option doesn't occur. Nuggets fans will certainly be cheering for option 3 should the season truley die.
#4 Full 30 team lottery
This final scenario has all 30 teams put their name into the machine and let it ride purely on luck. This scenario would be costly as a team projected to be the worst ie. the bobcats has a very high chance 29/30 of not getting the #1 pick. if they NbA Season played out they would have a 1/4 chance.
Spin on the Nuggets: Nothing is as good as option 3 for the Nuggs, but this option is actually preferable to options 1 and 2. Now bear with me in this thinking. This random deal could have Denver picking last, but in options 1 and 2 Denver picks in the 20s. The odds are better with this option that the nuggets get a pick in the 1-21 range than the 22-30 range just by pure luck, and that is a step up over options 1 and 2.