What kind of rebuild if Melo leaves?
Preface: This is a long post but I think it's useful to get to the core of what we're looking for.
It's really an underlying argument to this entire trade process, but what type of rebuilding/assets would people prefer if Melo ends up demanding a trade and we do move him? There's a lot of definitions of rebuilding but I'll break them down into the following:
1) High Potential/High Risk Youngsters - Basically this means the Nuggets are looking for lottery ticket type players on rookie scale contracts. Names I've seen in trade talks that I include in this section would be Favors, Aminu, Griffin, T-Will, Hill, Gallinari, and Randolph. These guys all have enormously high ceilings but due to numerous factors, they have all have a pretty high degree of risk associated. Also, these players are all pretty highly valued by their own teams meaning the rest of the trade package would probably be pretty light. The idea behind this methodology is we get a potential franchise player to replace a franchise player or we stink so bad we'll have a high lottery pick in which case we'll have another opportunity at a franchise player. Super high risk involved regardless.
2) Medium Potential/Medium to Low Risk Youngsters - Players who are considered solid, contributing rotation players with little star potential on rookie scale contracts. Guys like Damion James, Patrick Patterson, Omri Casspi fill in this area. These types are already or probably will be solid rotation players as decent starters or good bench players. The Nuggets will likely be in the lottery with these players but not so horrendously bad we'll have a ton of ping pong balls. It's probable the Nuggets could get two players, potentially even three, of this type of caliber in any deal. The great hope is we can add another top-flight starter through another trade down the road.
3) Picks, picks, and more picks... and cap space - We eschew current young players on NBA rosters for those to be determined. Most "superstar" trades of the past fallen under this category. These trades will likely involve a lot of expiring contracts to accompany the draft picks. The Clippers, Houston, and New Jersey all have the ability to offer three 1st rounders in the next three years (assuming lottery protections don't kick in) plus 2nd rounders. The owed picks to these teams are all pretty intriguing (Clippers own Minnesota's unprotected 2012 1st, Houston owns NY's top 5 protected 2012 and swap rights in 2011, and New Jersey owns GS's 2012 top 7 protected) so there's at least the chance we may get very lucky with the lottery in addition to likely mid-late natural 1st round picks from those teams in 2011 and 2013. This option gives us a ton of cap flexibility and the ability to fashion a roster of our choosing through the draft picks. Still, there's a lot of risk assumed in this type of deal simply because draft picks are by nature unpredictable, both in what spot the pick will be and which players will be available, not to mention the actual development of the player. This option does also clear for a lot of cap space which grants us the ability to play as the third team in other teams deals picking up assets in that way (see. Houston deal with NY, Eric Maynor to OKC, Michael Beasley to Minnesota, etc) or by signing FA's.
4) Retooling, not rebuilding - In this case we're looking for packages around good starters who have already shown NBA ability. Kevin Martin, Aaron Brooks, Vince Carter, and Chris Kaman come to mind. It's likely the Nuggets will remain playoff contenders but extremely unlikely we're Championship contenders. This route has very little risk in the fact we'll never have to see the likes of Junior Harrington/Vincent Yarbrough/Ryan Bowen on the team wallowing in the cellar. Low risk, pretty low ceiling.
Those are the four main options I can see. While I realize most deals out there incorporate several facets of these deals, they generally all lean toward one category or another. We're not gonna see any "Favors, T-Will, James, Murphy, and 3 first-rounders" or "Griffin, Gordon, Kaman, 3 firsts type of offers" on the table which fulfill numerous options to the fullest. I'm curious what people's preference is.
I'm in the option 1 category. Just get me one potential franchise level player, risk and surrounding package be damned. I'm a believer that you have to have a franchise level player (not necessarily super-elite like Kobe, Durant, James, Wade, etc) or there's no real point in playing the game. Even if the player we trade for doesn't pan out, it's likely we're gonna have a very high lottery pick so we have a chance to get another franchise player that way. In an absolutely glorious and fortuitous world, the player we receive in the deal shows promise in the first year, we suck, get another high lottery pick, and then they both blossom together in year two or three. Basically what the Nets have now with Lopez, Favors and arguably T-Will or the Clippers with Gordon, Griffin and Aminu. The risk associated with this course is off the charts but I'm not content with just competing, I want championships. However, I completely understand when people run for the hills thinking we might end up like the 2002 Nuggets again and want a lower risk associated with any trade we make.
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You aren't getting Griffin so you can forget that
he is untouchable and Gordon is likely untouchable as well after his performance for team USA. Kaman would likely be the one you would get along with Aminu and Mini’s pick.
This is what the clippers will most likely offer:
Kaman+Aminu+Mini pick for Melo. I think this is the best offer Denver is likely to get, you get Kaman who is undoubtedly one of the best centers in the league in terms of scoring, you get Aminu who is a young player with huge upside who is already shown to be a capable defender and rebounder, then you get Mini’s pick which is likely to be a top 5 pick. You won’t get that from any other team.
"It's better to be an optimist who is sometimes wrong than a pessimist who is always right"unknown
Dont know about that.
The nets have offered Harris, Favors and multiple picks. Obviously when the above offer is compared to NJ’s, it’s shit. If the Clippers tried to offer that, the nuggets FO would laugh, and then say: Go fuck yourself, LAC. Also, I can guarantee that Minnesota’s pick WILL NOT be top 5, because it is top 7 protected in 2011.
You are a homer, its okay, this is SB Nation, everyone is. If you want to see the value of a player like melo, look at the garnett trade (and the subsequent results). Garnett was what, 30 at that point? Melo has a good seven or eight years left in his career.
In his defense...
the Minny pick is top 10 protected in 2011, fully unprotected in 2012 so his assessment of the pick is probably pretty accurate. If I had to bet on any team in the league right now to be atrocious in two years, it’d be Minnesota. That’s likely the single most valuable draft pick any team owns that’s not their own (Minnesota’s own pick in 2011 is probably the most valuable, lol). I believe its the New Jersey owned GS #1 pick that’s Top 7 protected in 2012, 2013, and Top 6 protected in 2014.
I do agree with you overall on Melo’s value and your other fanpost though.
The thing is you aren't going to get equal value for Melo
when you trade super stars as a rule the team he leaves gets ripped, sorry that is just the way it is. But would you rather him leave and you get nothing or would you rather get an all star center, a high potential small forward, and one of the most valuable picks in the league. You aren’t going to get any better from any other team. NJ will maybe give you Favors and probably give you Murphy. While Favors probably has better potential then Aminu, Kaman is the better center no matter how you look at it. I’m not sure Houston can really offer you anything unless you want a lot of expiring contracts. And the best the Knicks can give you is more expiring contracts and maybe a draft pick. While the expiring contracts may make it easy for you to blow up the team and start over I don’t think from your comments above that you want to do that. The trade I propose allows for the Nuggets to stay competitive while at the same time providing potential in Aminu and the draft pick which will be extremely valuable as long as the Wolves don’t stop sucking which seems unlikely.
"It's better to be an optimist who is sometimes wrong than a pessimist who is always right"unknown
Equal value, no.
But some return is expected. At the very least Gordon would be in a trade for melo.
For most of us at clipsnation Gordon is a deal breaker
The common theory is that while a core of Baron, Griffin, and Melo would be good it would leave holes at the 2 and 5 that would keep the team from being truly successful. Not to mention that Gordon seems to be on track to have a great year coming off team USA. Now if this was just Gordon for Melo straight up it would be a different story, but Kaman is a very good piece he probably has one of the most diverse games out of any center (only one that comes close is Gasol but I consider him a PF) he has tons of spin moves, or he can just back you down, or he can just shoot his mid range shots. Kaman isn’t a number one option but he is a very good player and I don’t think you are going to find a better exchange of talent from any other team.
"It's better to be an optimist who is sometimes wrong than a pessimist who is always right"unknown
Okay, I get that
But you wont get melo then. JR smith would fill your void at the 2 spot. Gordon is just barely the better player right now, JR’s stats are even a little bit better than gordons. Which brings me to my next point, Kaman has great stats, but he really isnt that great of a player.
There is no way the clippers just trade for JR
it is Melo and no one else. The thing with Kaman as I said above is he is a very good player as long as he isn’t your number 1. And I think he will be more like your number 3 behind Nene and Billups. Unfortunately for you that means you are trading a number one for a number 3, however it is either that or you get nothing and Melo rides into the sunset. It is going to be the same for any other realistic trade out there, you are going to get screwed but at least you will be getting something.
"It's better to be an optimist who is sometimes wrong than a pessimist who is always right"unknown
Wait you say the Nets Have offered us a package?
Of Harris, Favors and multiple picks? or are you just hypothetically speaking?
Quitter's People United member #7
"Every morning we wake up we got two options, you get better or you get worse. What you gonna do today?" - Steve Hess
Everything is hypothetical man
unless you are a GM in disguise…. Actually latest news is good for you guys, apparently Denver is canceling trade talks, although they could start again during training camp if Melo shows that he really does want to leave.
"It's better to be an optimist who is sometimes wrong than a pessimist who is always right"unknown
I'm well aware...
that Griffin isn’t going anywhere in a straight Melo deal. But what if the Nuggets offer something along the lines of Melo/Billups for Griffin, Aminu, Davis and Foye or Gomes + a 1st after Dec. 15? I mean surely the Clippers would at least consider this before just hanging up the phone.
Clippers would have a core of Billups, Gordon, Melo, and Kaman. That’s pretty darn good, arguably the second best in the West. And they get out of Davis’s contract. You can either keep Billups for both years or if Bledsoe shows he can be an elite point guard, just buy out Billups next year and save yourself the $11M in cap space next year.
The Nuggets roll the dice on the hope that either Griffin or Aminu become franchise players, neither of which are a guarentee. They assume the risk of Davis’s contract but also gives them a veteran PG to give Ty a little more time to acclimate (and hopefully then move Davis along next year). Gomes/Foye is just there for salary matching purposes and neither contract is horrendous. I don’t consider either an asset or a liability… they’re just interchangeable contracts at this point who are pretty mediocre players.
Nope not even that deal
Billups is getting old fast and the clips think Griffin is going to be a super star. And the clippers FO still have face in Baron and don’t think they need a new PG. So basically there is not any possible trade in the entire world that clippers would even consider getting rid of Griffin. Gordon will be traded way before Griffin is traded as well.
"It's better to be an optimist who is sometimes wrong than a pessimist who is always right"unknown
Breaking News:
John Wall will ask for a trade following the 2014 season. Asked why he’s looking for a trade four full seasons beforehand, Wall replied, “It’s good to keep your options open. It’s the latest trend and I’m not a trend follower, I’m a trend setter.” Anonymous sources say Harrison Barnes, the current top-ranked freshman in college basketball and potential #1 pick for the 2011 draft, is leaning towards asking for trade a full year before he’s drafted. The reason? “Leverage.”
The clipper owned minny pick is the most valuable pick available
and if we got kaman/gordon to go with for Melo/JR that would be the best thing for us. clip fans don’t like it but I think that’s at least a reasonable option.
Trade won't work
not enough cap space for both JR and Melo, also it has Gordon in it which makes it a non starter.
"It's better to be an optimist who is sometimes wrong than a pessimist who is always right"unknown
You are not being realistic
A trade that excludes Gordon or Griffin does not happen.
No you are being unrealistic in that you expect to get a fair trade
I repeat you WILL NOT get a better trade from any team, this is as fair as it is going to get. Your only other route is to explode the team and trade for a bunch of rentals which is what every other team will give you. Unfortunately for you Denver has very little wiggle room, if they don’t want to get ripped on a trade they can let Melo walk (unless of course he has a change of heart and decides to stay), you don’t get value when you trade a star, but it is better then getting nothing. And to believe any differently is just naive. If I was in your position I probably wouldn’t want this trade either, unfortunately the Nuggets will find that no matter what they do they won’t get a fair deal. And the deal I stated above is as fair as it is going to be.
"It's better to be an optimist who is sometimes wrong than a pessimist who is always right"unknown
And you are acting like the Clips have wiggle room...
They can decline, and stay mediocre forever, or do what they can to secure one of the best players the NBA has to offer. Melo has proven he can carry a team time and time again. A 19 year old melo carried this team to the playoffs. http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DEN/2004.html . Maybe they can shake their reputation as the Lakers ugly/retarded sister, and put some asses in seats.
They definitely do have the option to just stay the course
I am not doubting that Melo makes the clippers a much better team, but at what cost. The clippers are definitely giving up their center in any trade but if you were the gm they would also be giving up Gordon. That means the clippers would be giving up 2 of their 4 best players, and would essentially kill the youth movement the clippers have going. I would rather pass on Melo and let Gordon develop and keep Kaman then give up both Gordon and Kaman and create at team with holes at the two and the 5. And don’t forget one of those years that Melo lost in the playoffs was to a clipper team that was led by a young PF in Elton Brand and supposedly injury prone PG named Sam Cassell.
"It's better to be an optimist who is sometimes wrong than a pessimist who is always right"unknown
i think you are overvaluing Gordon a bit
i don’t see what makes him untouchable. what is unique about him? there are plenty of nba players that can do what he does. he’s young and he’s a great shooter. what else does he do? he’s not a great FT shooter. he’s undersized, had all kinds of different injuries last year. Wing players are a dime a dozen in the nba.
he's halfway decent so naturally Clips Nation goes nuts
they rarely see halfway decent players balling for the sailboats
by InboundingLobPass on Sep 2, 2010 12:39 AM MDT up reply actions
would a sign and trade at the end of the year work?
like the knicks warriors trade for David Lee? He was going to leave anyway but knicks got pretty alright return for him. at the end of the year Nets have cap space after Murphy and Humphries come off so we wouldnt have to take back a big contract like harris or outlaw. I know we wouldnt get as good of a trade as we would if we traded him now or at the deadline but we get all the options kind of
-one more contending year with Melo
-some young talent through S and T
-a pick or two
-cap space
Sure, you could...
but that’s basically what LeBron and Bosh did. If you wait until the end of the year, Melo is essentially a free agent at that point. In other words, he can go wherever he wants and the Nuggets have to do the best deal they can with that team (ie. we’re screwed). Personally, I have no clue why Golden State gave up what they did for Lee, there was 0% chance of the Knicks resigning him after Amare and GS could have saved themselves a few bucks. It’s probable they just wanted to shed the salaries but I have no clue why they gave up Randolph. Anyways, it’s much more likely we’d get something along the lines of what the Cavs/Raptors got, a couple of bad 1st round picks or a large trade exception.
The entire point of trading him now or before the deadline is maximizing return with multiple bidders. If there’s multiple teams bidding, the chance of our return increases a lot. If we’re stuck dealing with one team, like what would happen if we tried to trade Carmelo after the year, they could basically say “enjoy the two future top 55 protected 2nd rounders” and laugh as Melo signed a contract with them. We also have a little more leverage because Melo wants to get paid under the current CBA and not risk what type of max contract is in the new CBA so he’s just as motivated to be a little flexible with potential trade destinations.
Well, they were over the cap
So to get him they had to give up some stuff.
Thanks
I dont know why GS gave up so much either. because Lee obviously wanted to go to GS or a sign and trade wouldnt happen. Melo would rather go through a s and t though so he gets a bigger contract. If it happened at the end of the year either he gives a list of 5 teams he would agree to a s and t with and they have a bidding war for his rights or he says either a s and t to new york for a pick and a trade exception or he just walks there so we are forced to take shit like Cleveland and Toronto. It would be a hell of a gamble but I would love to see Melo on the team at least one more year unfortunately I dont see Stan agreeing to a gamble like that














