Reality: When Melo goes, the Nuggets will not make the playoffs for at least 2-3 years
by BeefySwats on Aug 27, 2010 10:59 AM MDT
Email
Print
Simply put. There is no way you replace a superstar of Melo's talent with other players and still expect to make the playoffs as presently constructed. We will probably drop to a 35-40 win team in the West for a few years.
The good news is if, as expected, the Nuggets also trade JR Smith and Kenyon Martin, we will be at only 40m for the 2011 season with a ton of cap space to rebuild quickly. Whether or not that rebuilding effort is successful depends largely on Kroenke Jr. and Uriji's talents to put together a squad around what appears to be the Nuggets new core: Ty Lawson and Arron Afflalo. Lawson will be a PG in the vein of Chris Paul and Rajon Rondo, a pass first speedster who can create anywhere on the court. Afflalo will be our wing slasher with a three point shot who can also play defense like Shane Battier. While not a core, per se, I think that if the Nuggets rebuild around these player's strengths - picking up a capable big in the draft or in free agency in the years ahead (Marc Gasol) we can quickly recoup our swagger.
Quickly, in this case, is a relative term. I would caution any Nuggets fans to not expect to be relevant in contender talks for at least the next 3-5 years after Melo leaves. You don't simply evacuate the core of your team (Melo, Kenyon, JR) and still expect a whole new group to be gel fast enough to be in the conversation, particularly when the tertiary core is also rotating out in the next 2-3 years (Billups, Nene, Harrington). George Karl is also likely to retire within the next 2 years given his struggles with cancer.
I love my Nuggets, and even when they're crap, I will still turn them on in the cold Denver nights and watch my blue and gold.
But the sobering fact of the matter is that even if we find suitors, our Nuggets are going into rebuilding mode once Carmelo is gone. This team is aging, its core is departing, and 2009 was our best shot at the title. Where we go from here is up to the front office.
It is important to keep perspective, though. We won't be saddled with Kenyon's onerous contract, the no-defense ways of Melo and JR will be a thing of the past, and we can restructure our perennially offense-oriented squad around defenders like Afflalo supplemented by a truly dominant big in the paint. We will have huge amounts of flexibility in the 2011-2012 seasons and more than likely have draft picks to go with it.
So take heart. We are in for some rough times in the near future but our long term outlook is bright.
Write respectfully of your SB Nation community and yourself.
35 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Honestly, if we can handle the Melo situation well, we'll be fine.
I mean, if you think about it, 2-3 years is pretty good for a rebuilding team. Look at the T’Wolves. I give em 4-5 years minimum before they even get close to getting close to making the playoffs. If we can replace Melo//K-Mart/J.R. with ONLY solid young players with good potential, we can have a future. Build around Ty and Afflalo, keep solid vet presences like Chauncey and A.C. (and even Nene in a few years), keep our draft picks and make smart draft choices, and make good decisions with cap space in F.A., and 2-3 years isn’t long to wait.
"J.R. SMITH! WITH NO REGARD FOR COMMON SENSE!" - Future Kevin Harlan Quote
"Scars remind us of where we've been. They don't have to dictate where we're going."
if, big IF, we can make the right draft choices
it will be nice to see a team grow up together. 2-3 years isnt a long time, but it will probably be more like 3-5 years. hopefully kobe will be done by then.
let's go nuggets! who u wit?
by 808inDenver on Aug 27, 2010 11:38 AM MDT up reply actions
Well look at how fast
Durant + OKC got into the swing of things.
Well look at how fast
Durant + OKC got into the swing of things.
I think it's possible the Nugs might make the playoffs next year w/out Melo
The Nugs will still have Nene & Billups so I could see them sneak in as an 8th seed. But then things will be going bad for a long time.
If you lose a special player like Melo and believe another one will come along, history has proven that just won’t happen. It will also be several years before the Nugs may even lower themselves enough to get a top draft pick and a trade for Melo isn’t going to bring a top pick because the other team won’t have to give one up.
I love Manhatten and New Orleans; I’m a Denver native and have no desire to live anywhere else. But having said that… yes Denver is Cleveland and the TWolves. No top FA will want to come to Denver; they never have before and there’s less of a desire for them to come here now.
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
"Remember the Alamo", "Remember the Maine", "Remember the Hunter Trade"
"Contenders commit to building a champion; pretenders end up getting bit right on their pick axe"
Slap me after I say this but...
Wouldn’t it be a fucking hilarious thing if Melo was traded and we ended up 8th seed in the playoffs, beat the Lakers who will of course be number 1 and go on to at least lose in the WCF?
You know stranger things have happened.
Ok, I’ll take my slap now. Make it hard please.
It would be even more hilarious if Melo was traded, the Nuggets ended up 8th seed, and the Nets or Bobcats or whoever missed the playoffs
Quitter's People United: Member 12
by Uh on Aug 27, 2010 6:14 PM MDT up reply actions
I'll say it again
All this media bullshit about the Nugs trading Melo for a bag of peanuts is a joke. No reason the Nugs can’t make a good trade for an extended Melo and get really good pieces that could make the team even better than if he stayed.
My proposal:
Extended Melo for Scola, Martin, and a NY Knick first round pick. Rockets and Nugs would come out ahead in this deal in my opinion.
If the Rockets trade isn’t available then the Nugs need to let Melo walk and not play him this coming year. Melo would miss two years of play in his prime and the Nugs could take back the power from the thug agents around the league. Time to play hard ball bitches.
Haven't you heard?
Melo’s terrible. We can trade him for nothing and still win 50+ games next year. Didn’t you see the record last year when he was hurt? I’ve made up a stat that says that D. Jones, A.C., and Petro are all better than Melo.
Good post, but no thanks for making this whole depressing process more depressing by injecting reality.
Formerly KS and CS
by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Aug 27, 2010 3:44 PM MDT reply actions
Also haven't you heard the fags calling into 104.3 the fan?
Saying, “Melo quit on us last year when he just layed down in the lane and refused to get up?” What game were these bozo’s watching?!?!?!?!!
Lol
He had a stinger, it looked funny, but its a legit medical thing.
No way, he was definitely quitting on the team by taking a nap on the floor in the middle of a game
Quitter's People United: Member 12
by Uh on Aug 27, 2010 6:15 PM MDT up reply actions
Don't disagree in the rebuilding, but I think you better hope we get lucky in the Lottery
Or I think you are looking at a 3-6 year time table. The NBA is built on having star level players, unless we can find some or get some to come here, we will be out of the playoffs for a long time.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman
Who's coming out next year
If the nugs end in the lottery and get a couple of other lottery picks, they could luck into a San Antonio/Duncan scenario. Who am I kidding, that’ll never happen.
Formerly KS and CS
by ThrowItDownBigManThrowItDown on Aug 27, 2010 3:47 PM MDT up reply actions
You never know
That line of thought is actually one reason I think if the Nuggets trade Melo they should just swing for the fences. They’re gonna be rebuilding. Then it becomes what you want the risk/reward of the rebuilding process to be. You can get solid young pieces back and probably be a decent team, a fringe playoff contender, with minimal chance at winning the lottery, rebuild through FA, and limit the rebuilding process to a year or two. Or you can sell out and try and go for a real hit-or-miss type guy (Favors immediately comes to mind), and if you hit, you have your franchise player again. If you miss, you’re absolutely terrible, have a ton of ping pong balls and maybe get lucky with a Harrison Barnes. I’m in the camp that believes if you’re gonna rebuild, you might as well just swing for the fences.
Then again, the prospect of watching the pre-Melo Nuggets makes me want to puke in my mouth a little.
I don't see Afflalo developing into that important of a piece
I think he is good and very valuable for his defense, but I don’t think you can rely on him to become much of an offensive threat.
Also, as much as I want Ty Lawson to develop into a Chris Paul or Rajon Rondo level talent, I don’t think it’ll happen anytime soon. Rondo especially plays extremely solid and disruptive defense, and Lawson’s main asset is definitely on the offensive end.
Simply put, Afflalo is at best a complementary player on a good team, and Lawson is a possible All-Star point guard, but not a superstar. Those players don’t form a team’s core, they are guys you surround a team’s core with. So yeah, you’re right; the Nuggets won’t be much of a playoff threat for at least a couple years unless they get lucky in the draft next year (do they have picks for 2011??).
The post above hit it on the head, you need star level talent to compete these days. Superstar level talent. You need a Kobe, or a Lebron, or a Dwyane Wade to even be in the picture. That’s essentially why I don’t have much faith in the Nuggets’ short term future. Stars can’t be replaced unless by shrewd trades (oh like the Al Jefferson trade), shrewd drafts, or winning the free agency lottery, and the Nuggets aren’t in great position to do these things.
Quitter's People United: Member 12
+1 on pretty much everything
I think we’re going to build a good team up pretty fast if we get pieces back for Melo and sign some FAs, but we’re going to be missing that perineal All Star, or franchise player, which is going to prevent us from ever being a real contender. We need to figure out a way to get one once Melo is gone because until that happens I see a lot of 30-45 win season ahead.
Stiff 4 Life
by GoldenNugget on Aug 27, 2010 9:53 PM MDT up reply actions
You guys will be fine
I don’t see how Melo is a superstar. He’s a high-volume scorer, but not that great of a scorer. He was fourth on the team in WP48, and Billups was clearly the team’s MVP the last two years. Say Denver trades Melo for Gallo, Curry and a first. Give Gallinari Melo’s minutes, and the team figures to win 45-50 games, which would have gotten them a spot in the playoffs last season, when the West was arguably stronger.
Two seasons ago when Denver went to the WCF...
If he had Chauncey but not Melo, that would not have happened.
Sure
If you had no Chauncey, it would have been yet another first round exit.
If we send Melo to the knicks
The nuggets win less than 40 games. Gallo, Randolph, 2 1sts and curry sent to a third team (with a first) would be an awful package. I want favors, griffin or at least gordon in return. Those guys have all-nba potential. I dont think Gallo or randolph will even make an all star game, and if they do, they will be fringe guys.
Really?
Melo is really worth 13+ wins? Last season, he only had 7 win shares, and his offensive rating (110) and defensive rating (109) were worse than the rest of the team’s ratings of 112 and 107.5 respectively. Translation: the team is better when he isn’t on the floor.
If they decide to blow up the team after dealing Melo by doing something stupid and rash like trading Billups and/or Nene (the team’s real stars), then yeah, they probably will be a sub-500 team.
Gallo isn’t great, but he has potential to be a solid starting SF. Anthony Randolph is injury prone, but has the potential to be a far better player than Carmelo “possession sink” Anthony.
Do you watch the nuggets or just look at stats?
I assume you do the later, because melo is this nuggets team.
I've watched those Nuggets
Like that time they destroyed the Lakers without Melo. How Billups and Nene are the players who aren’t constantly jacking up shots.
Billups is a chucker at times
Well, he always is, but usually he is on and the shots drop. Billups LOVES early in the clock step up threes and transition threes. Nene really doesnt shoot enough to be called a star. His D is good, but he cant board well enough.
Carmelo is absolutely a superstar.
As a matter of fact, sometimes I feel that I rank him a little low. On another post I repeatedly claimed that Carmelo is merely a top-10 player in the league. Let me throw a little historical perspective on this: Over the last 25 years, only 7 players have scored 12,000 points, grabbed 3,000 rebounds, and scored 1,500 assists in their first seven years in the league:
(1)Carlemo Anthony
(2)Lebron James
(3)Paul Pierce
(4)David Robinson
(5)Karl Malone
(6)Charles Barkley
(7)Michael Jordan
http://www.wizardsextreme.com/forums/showthread.php?p=85059
I remember seeing this on ESPN when they showed it. I thought, that’s pretty suprising. Every one of those players will be in the Hall of Fame.
The Nuggz could be even better w/o him
Depends on the coaching. We’d have to switch up our mentality. No more half-assed D and no more iso offense. If we trade melo to LAC for Kaman and Gordon then I think the Nuggz would be better off. We’d finally have enough depth to have a legitimate training camp where players are auditioning for starting jobs. If players don’t rebound, pass, or play D, then Karl could bench them. Chuancey could hold them accountable too because there would be no superstar ego on the team.
Say no to Kaman
May have been an all-star for some reason last year, but he’s a terrible player. Extremely inefficient ballhog.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Andrew Feinstein
(denverstiffs@gmail.com)
Nate Timmons
(ntimmons73@yahoo.com)
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
DENVER STIFFS T-SHIRTS!
Enter your email for updates
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
