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The Standings + Possible First Round Oppponents

For here, I will discuss the three teams that the Nuggets are most likely to face in Round 1. These teams are the Spurs, the Thunder, and the Blazers. I won't go into too much depth about the Blazers because, well, 1) They are definitely my second favorite team besides the Nuggets, and, more importantly, 2) Zachm219 did this little thing on the Blazers and the Mavs a couple days ago. So here's the western conference standings as of right now, but Utah, Dallas, Portland, and the l*kers all play today, so it could change. I'm just including the teams in playoff position because Memphis has a 0.1% of making the playoffs, and all the other Western Conference teams are mathematically eliminated.

WESTERN W L PCT GB HOME ROAD DIV CONF PF PA DIFF STRK L10
1 x - LA Lakers 53 19 .736 - 32-5 21-14 12-2 31-12 102.4 96.6 +5.8 Lost 1 7-3
2 Denver 48 25 .658 5 ½ 30-6 18-19 10-4 29-15 107.2 102.5 +4.7 Won 1 6-4
3 Dallas 47 25 .653 6 25-11 22-14 7-6 25-18 101.5 99.8 +1.7 Lost 1 6-4
4 Utah 47 26 .644 6 ½ 29-8 18-18 7-8 27-18 103.9 98.2 +5.7 Lost 1 6-4
5 Phoenix 46 26 .639 7 29-9 17-17 12-4 30-16 110.4 106.0 +4.5 Won 6 8-2
6 Oklahoma City 44 27 .620 8 ½ 24-12 20-15 8-3 24-19 100.3 96.7 +3.6 Won 2 7-3
7 San Antonio 43 28 .606 9 ½ 26-11 17-17 8-5 26-18 101.2 96.5 +4.6 Won 1 7-3
8 Portland 43 29 .597 10 24-13 19-16 6-7 27-16 98.0 94.8 +3.1 Won 1 8-2

 

The stat that interests me the most is the Average Point Differential (DIFF). This shows the amount of points by which each team outscores the opponent on average. The Mavs have a differential of only +1.7, which is about equivalent to that of the 39-34 Miami Heat. Another thing to take into account is Average Winning Percentage of the opponent, which I didn't put up there. The Nuggets are at .495, The Jazz are at .514, the Spurs are at .509, the Suns are at .505, the Blazers are at .500, the Thunder are at .502 and the Mavericks are at .511.

In my team "scouting" after the jump, I will not include Phoenix because they have a higher chance of getting home-court advantage in the first round than falling to the 6th/7th seed and playing us.

To the jump!

Star-divide

The first team that I will look at are the Santonio Spurs because if the playoffs started today, we'd play them. They have been the Nuggets' demon for many years, knocking us out in the first round. However, this Nuggets team is not the same as the ones of the past, and these Spurs are getting a bit old. Tim Duncan is the same 20-10 guy that he's always been, despite how old and creepy-looking he gets.

P1_duncan

With Tony Parker out until the playoffs, George Hill from IUPUI has filled in well, showing his range and his size against opposing point guards. According to Popovic, Parker will return to the lineup whenever he's medically cleared, which will probably be around the playoffs. Richard Jefferson has declined a lot since last season, but has seemed to find his game as of late. Manu Ginobili is, has been, and will always be a flopper (scroll down for some pictures). The Spurs' key player will be Dejuan Blair who the Nuggets really should have drafted with the 34th pick who has been an important backup big man, especially since the Spurs' starting center spot has switched between Antonio "F*** Denver" McDyess and Matt "I'm as slow as Brad Miller" Bonner. So yeah, that's the 2009-2010 Spurs right there.

2477295780_f476d32bd2_medium

2433443809_653189604d_o_medium

In the next picture, Manu Ginobili shows his best "Gilbert Arenas Impersonation" stance, all the while looking like an idiot:

Manu-ginobili-flopper_medium

OK, moving on...let's go to the Thunder. The Thunder are currently in the 6th seed, and are a very young team anchored by superstar Kevin Durantula. However, Russell Westbrook is a force to account for, and if you don't pay attention to him Jeff Green ain't bad either. Westbrook is averaging about 17 points, 7 assists, and 5 rebounds a game, and is a pretty darn good defender. Green is a 6'9" athletic small forward playing out of position at power forward. Thabo Sefoslosha reminds me of a bulkier Arron Afflalo, and James Harden is a 2010 Rookie of the Year candidate (JK). Their main weakness is interior defense. Nenad Kristic should be a backup, as he is 7'0" but isn't very bulky and is pretty slow and fits the description of a stiff. Their x-factor is not Harden, or Maynor, or Green, or Westbrook, but Serge Ibaka. He is 6'10" and 225 lbs, and is extremely energetic and athletic with a huge vertical. He's like their version of Chris Andersen, except much younger, more explosive, and more tattooless (wait, is that even a word?). Here's him dunking on Drew Gooden:

The Blazers are currently in the eighth seed, but would be a lot higher if not for a rash of injuries. As you already know, Oden and Pryzbilla are gone for the season, and Batum, Blake, Outlaw, Roy, Fernandez, Cunningham, Pendegraph, and Mills all missed a good deal of time due to their own injuries. This team is a very, very slow paced team that plays decent defense and efficient offense (although their ppg doesn't show it because they play so damn slowly). Unlike what Zachm219 said, the Blazers are a better three-point shooting team than many people accredit them for. Martell Webster has greatly improved his long-range shooting, Batum can knock down open 3s, Fernandez lives behind the arc, and Roy is definitely no slouch at those long-range shots. However, Miller is a slasher/mid-range shooter, Bayless is their version of Ty Lawson, and Marcus Camby is very good at bricking his knuckleball 15-18 footer.

Camby_free_throw_medium

Gah, what a yucky shot.

Poll
Who do you want the Nuggets to face in the 1st round (out of the options provided, of course)?
The OKC Thunder
14 votes
The SAntonio Spurs
34 votes
The PDX Trail Blazers
20 votes

68 votes | Poll has closed

Write respectfully of your SB Nation community and yourself.

Comment 14 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Good post as always LACK

I think my opinion has changed since a month ago. I’d rather see the Blazers in the first round. The Spurs…I don’t know, I just feel iffy about the Spurs. They have experience, they have Tim Duncan, they have a few nice pieces. If they’re healthy for the playoffs, they could put up a decent fight.

The Blazers on the other hand have really struggled since that hot stretch where they won a bunch without Oden and Pryzbilla. Plus a team with only one actually good big man in LMA…unless Juwan Howard counts. That could be a good tune-up for KMart.

The Oklahomans I don’t want to see. They may be young, but I don’t think any team wants to face Kevin Durant in the first round. That guy is beast.

About the standings…I’m really interested in how Utah has such an enormous point differential. Nearly 6 points for a good but not great team? How’ve they managed that? I know they’ve blown out their opponents multiple times, but still. That’s crazy, and it makes me a little more nervous about possibly facing the Jazz in the second round.

by Uh on Mar 27, 2010 7:13 PM MDT reply actions  

Hmmmm...

1. OKC honestly scares the crap out of me other then the fact they have no postseason experience. But because of this they have no fear of anyone.
2. Blazers dont scare me but they have some guys with the experience.(ie ex nuggets) and they have some players that know how the nuggets play(same guys) they also have ROY.
3. Spurs have what I like to call “to much” experience. I would love to play them in the first round.(As long as Kmart is back) Payback for those 2 1st round knockouts would be a great feeling. This incarnation of the nuggets can definately beats the spurs.

Great Post!!

by The U.N. Fab Five on Mar 27, 2010 7:14 PM MDT reply actions  

Great post and rec'd as always

The Nuggets have handled their business with the Thunder, Spurs and the Blazers this season. None of them “scare” me like the Suns zone defense that confounds the Nuggets. That’s the team that worries me.

"Groovy" Ash from Evil Dead 2

"No one came from miles around / and said man your music is really hot" No One Came...Deep Purple

by jpage78 on Mar 27, 2010 7:40 PM MDT reply actions  

hahaha oh man

that last ginobili picture is hilarious

by skithebert on Mar 27, 2010 7:44 PM MDT reply actions  

doesn't everybody?

pick up a calf every day pretty soon you will be picking up a cow

by nohoops4u on Mar 27, 2010 8:01 PM MDT up reply actions  

I'm just saying

Talk about keeping it high and tight. He either waxes, travels around with a personal groomer or he may have had a laser removal procedure done. Pro athletes are rich man

by runningdonut on Mar 27, 2010 10:53 PM MDT up reply actions  

mark twain once said, "there are lies, damn lies then there are statistics."

after the raptors’ game there are times stats do not mean anything. spurs have proven over the years their regular season does not effect the playoff performance. a few seasons ago dallas had the best regular season record in the nba and lost in the 1st round to golden state. with 9 games to go in the regular season the suns, jazz, mavs and nugs are within 2.5 games of each other. factor in will kmart and karl be back? if they are at what capacity? there are too many variables at the moment. when the playoffs do start there is the 7 game series factor along with not playing 2 games in a row. bottom line for me is the suns are big trouble for denver. that is one team the nuggets will have a major problem with no matter which round they play in. suns will not have a problem without home court against denver. i constantly look at the numbers. right now there are too many scenarios that have to play out.

pick up a calf every day pretty soon you will be picking up a cow

by nohoops4u on Mar 27, 2010 8:35 PM MDT reply actions  

To be honest

I just want to play Portland because I think our style of play is the weakness of the Blazers, who want to keep the game low scoring, there won’t be so much banging as with the other 2 teams possibly. I also think the game threads would be entertaining, plus I would def. not want to face the team with the best player, I would love to have Durants team give the Lakers all they could handle because I really do think they could actually upset the Lakers or at least push it to 7.

nohoops is right, I always have a bad feeling when we play the Suns.

by CloudBurst on Mar 27, 2010 9:27 PM MDT reply actions  

On another note

I was never surprised that no one contested that ugly knuckle ball thing (shot?) he did from 20 feet out, it seemed like he missed it most of the time.

by CloudBurst on Mar 27, 2010 9:30 PM MDT reply actions  

I don't like thinking about it

The last week and half of games have been brutal for me to watch. Not only because they lost some easy ones but the games they won they have played like garbage. I feel like the swagger and intensity is being slowly beat out of them and the confidence is beginning to waver. They can make excuses about Karl and Kenyon which only exacerbates the problem. Right now they aren’t playing like a playoff team. So honestly I am just praying for focus and improvement game to game, and I hope we can manage to get home court.

My ideal dream scenario though, face OKC in the first round and Portland in the second round. Yeah I said it Portland takes out Dallas in the first round.

by runningdonut on Mar 27, 2010 11:08 PM MDT reply actions  

i like the post...

is there chance we play Phoenix tho?

by hvino on Mar 28, 2010 10:44 AM MDT reply actions  

best case scenario

standings stay as they are, but San antonio drops to 8, and portland moves up to 7.

We would definitely sweep them or take it 4-1 against the blazers.

then we would play the winner of Dallas-OKC.

I’d rather the Nuggs face Dalls or OKC than Phoenix or Utah. I know Denver owned Utah this season, but still. Phoenix would have a chance to beat Denver (honestly, no answer for STAT)

by jb22 on Mar 28, 2010 10:51 AM MDT reply actions  

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