Playoff Speculation from the Stiffs
by runningdonut on Mar 10, 2010 4:25 AM MST
95 comments
Most other teams' blogs I come across have a good deal of discussion about playoffs odds, possible matchups and predicted standings being debated frequently. Blazersedge comes to mind, those are pretty much the best and check out all of the Western schedules analyzed by jscot on there. As a Nuggets fan my general feeling on it is who cares. The Nuggets control their own destiny, all they have to do is play like they have been all season which is a 2 or 3 seed in the west. We've already discussed how the Nuggets could take a huge step forward by acting like a great team on the road, it's the only thing stopping us from competing for a #1 seed. Nevertheless the K-Mart injury changes a lot and playoff speculation is just fun as long as we don't jinx the Nugs, which we won't because our fully healthy squad can beat anyone, I'm confident in that. Figured I'd throw out a few talking points on each conference to see what everyone has to say about it.
WEST
- The Blazers are just a half game behind San Antonio for that #7 seed right now. They just delivered a sub-par effort against us but we still have not seen them with Camby, who changed their team a lot. They gave up a significant part of their rotation to get him. San Antonio just lost Parker till probably the playoffs, and they still have to play at Miami, Orlando, Boston, ATL, and OKC and home against LAL and Cleveland this month. Their schedule sucks and Portland could definitely pass them. In fact, if they suffer another injury problem they are in danger of slipping out of the race should Houston or New Orleans muster a late push. Both of those teams have probably lost too many already so San Antonio is pretty safe from all except Portland. I'm hoping the Blazers pass them, because SA is a better matchup for the Lakers. They probably still aren't beating LA, but you can't count out a Duncan-led squad against anyone, the man's got 4 rings along with Popovich. The toughest out of the first round for the Lakers is San Antonio in my mind, no doubt. Same with Dallas against a healthy #7 seed Portland. More next bullet
- Utah looks pretty good to finish top 4. And Mavs plus their schedule have good odds to stay in the #2 seed. They made some good moves at the trade deadline, we're all hoping it turns around on them but if the Nuggets slip up just once it could ruin our chances beating them to #2. I will be happy if the Nugs can enter the playoffs a #3 seed ahead of Utah. Dallas, Denver, and Utah all have an outside shot at stealing the #1 seed, but I'm living in the real world. It's not happening, they are the defending champs, they are healthy and that's just the way it is right now. The road goes through LA. Denver should try to get a 2 or 3 seed for obvious reasons.
EAST
- There's a huge gap between the top 4 and the bottom 4 playoff seeds in the East. Only 2 teams in the bottom half of the East are a threat. The Bobcats and the Bucks. The Bobcats start a huge lineup, they have Augustin scoring off the bench, numerous 7 footers and a good coach in Larry Brown. They aren't making the Eastern Finals but they are certainly dangerous at home, having already shown that to a number of top teams including us. The Bucks are a wildcard too, 5th spot right now but honestly they'll only have a chance against a tired and hobbled Boston in the playoffs. I still like Boston, but they are struggling and right now they can't afford even a minor injury or an off-night from anyone. A question mark, but right now I think it's Cleveland or Orlando coming out of the East, with Atlanta and Boston having the smaller outside chance of beating them out, especially if Charlotte can knock off one of the top 2 seeds. The #4 seed could be a blessing in disguise for Boston.
What say you?
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Lakers 1, Dallas 2, Denver 3, Utah 4.
I think a LAL (1) and SA (8) series would at least not be a 4 game sweep. If the Nuggets can stay out of the LAL side of the bracket until the WCF the Nuggets have done well. Conversly, a second round matchup of LAL and Utah, would be more hard fought than last year’s series between these teams that’s assuming Utah makes it past the Suns. I do however think that the Mavs would roll over the Thunder. But I’m interested to see how the Mavs start the playoffs considering they won’t really be facing very much quality competition until then. However, I do think the Nuggets can beat anyone in the league when they play Nuggets basketball.
GO NUGGETS!!!!
"I know the game of basketball is one-on-one (oriented), but the pain of beating a defense by the pass — it confuses and frustrates the defense more than just going by a guy one-on-one." George Karl
Nuggets NEED homecourt to beat Mavs
Without HCA, Nuggets are a second round and done team. Unless we draw Phoenix in Round 1.
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
I just say
Avoid OKC or in round 1. Something about the Boom Boys in the playoffs scares me a bit, and they actually remind me of Dallas when Nash was there. I’m sure the Nuggets can and will beat them should they match up, but it will be a 6-7 games series. i’d hate to see the Nuggets gassed after just the 1st round.
+1
Couldn’t agree more. OKC is the one team besides the Lakers that really scares me. Ridiculous talent and too young to know what they can’t do. Nothing more dangerous than a team playing with house money…
Scary thing is that even with the extensions they still have the money to sign a decent 2nd or 3rd option
That is supposing that they dump Nenad “Why the heck is he a starting center” Kristic.
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
Not to jinx us, but unless the wheels fall off, Denver is almost guaranteed a first round win. The consensus is we want the 2 or 3 in order to postpone facing the Lakers until the wcf.
The west is extremely competitive this year, and I don’t think theres much separating the Lakers, Dallas, and the Nugs as far as legit potential to take it all. But, with the disparity in difficulty of schedules for these three, plus Utah, we could end up anywhere from 2 to 5. We have to cope with the lineup changes in a flawless manner to get the 2 or 3. (Have no fear. The Johan is going to beast tonight, just watch! Foreshadowing of things to come.)
Given the lack of fear the Nugs have displayed against the Lakers so far, I’m not so sure facing them in the second round would necessarily be a bad thing. Assuming a healthy roster at that time, the Nugs may be fresher in the second round against what would likely be the most difficult series until the finals against Cle/Orl. And while I think we can beat Dallas, that one won’t be much easier, whether it happens in the second round or the wcf. I’m sure if we polished off the Lakers in the second round we would enter such a wcf series with a ton of confidence that ‘THIS IS OUR YEAR!’
Still, home court for as long as possible is clearly advantageous. I’m just trying to look on the bright side of what may shake out for the rest of the season. We still have a lot of games to play.
I agree
I think it would be beneficial to meet the lakers earlier. There would be less of the “oh man WCF repeat” attitude. Nuggets would be looser and the lakers I think would be less prepared for us in the 2nd round. And if we beat the Lakers then our confidence would be sky high for the WCF and finals.
KMart will return
It just remains to be seen at what level. If he’s back at >70%, it increases our chances significantly. Our 7-footer may blossom in the meantime. Lots of things have to go our way.
I sometimes think our FO rely on some sort of voodoo. Last year was a string of outrageous good fortune. Can that happen again? That appears to be their plan.
Dallas and LA are truly formidable, but when healthy, so are the Nugs. Moreso, IMO, particularly re Dal.
True
But what if Martin isn’t the same player? Or is Petro doesn’t play to his potential? Then what? The Nuggets are tired. They’re getting hurt, or playing hurt.
But Petro will average 10 ppg and 15 rpg in the playoffs!
And Malik Allen will turn back the clock against one of his former teams and go off for 10 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 tacos per game!
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
So the Nuggets will be scoring 500 points in one game?
by Uh on Mar 10, 2010 5:54 PM MST up reply actions
125
4 tacos for 100 points.
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
Wait I get it
how the hell did I not understand this the first time
by Uh on Mar 20, 2010 7:53 PM MDT up reply actions
In a series or in regular season wins?
Kenyon out for good changes everything, winning any playoff series without him is up in the air and we haven’t seen enough from everyone else to determine that yet. I’m still going off the info we’ve gotten and guessing he can return by the start of the playoffs, or more optimistically the last few games of the season.
by runningdonut on Mar 10, 2010 12:33 PM MST up reply actions
Maybe a long first round series would be preferable . .
If K-Mart isn’t back until the end of the season, as much time as possible to get back into playing shape might be needed . . .
A six gamer against PDX or OKC might be just what the Dr ordered. . .(course followed by a five gamer over Dallas to get some rest before facing the Lakers)
of two minds
Part of me wants to make a case about how important seeding is, given the night-and-day difference between the Nuggets at home vs on the road. That part of me is still swept up in the idea that the Nuggets can really do something big in the playoffs this year.
Then again, another part of me keeps thinking “The coach has cancer and the best defender is missing a lot of the rest of the very tough regular season schedule and might not be the same whenever he does come back. Anything over 50 wins, and anything better than getting swept in the first round is a huge moral victory at this point.”
by ParkHillNative on Mar 10, 2010 12:26 PM MST reply actions
only 8 more to 50 wins
True, the Nugs are fighting an uphill battle with bad timing in terms of injuries and the coach getting cancer. Bottom feeders like the Spurs are praying for and counting on the fact we’ll have an epic collapse. I’m not ready to concede that though, wouldn’t we have started dropping games already? Despite our struggles we stuck right around the 2 seed pretty much the whole season. Losing K-Mart hurts, but we still have tons of offensive firepower, we’re winning most of our home games and that’s just the way it is. The fact we are down but still in position to control our own destiny says a lot. Remember, we’re tied with Dallas in the loss column right now.
by runningdonut on Mar 10, 2010 12:44 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
I hear you
Funnily enough re. 8 more to 50 wins — there are 8 home games left on the schedule.
As far as the question “wouldn’t we have started dropping games already?,” I like that way of looking at it, but I also can’t help but wonder if the full effect of all this has yet to be felt.
And I’ve been mentioning the tie in the loss column with Dallas a couple of times this week. It’s heartening — but looking at the rest of their schedule, it’s ridiculously easy compared to the Nuggets’ schedule. The Mavs only have 7 road games left, only have 3 b2b’s, and only one of those has them on the road for the 2nd night — in Sacramento.
Nuggets: 11 road games left, 6 b2b’s, including Orlando-Dallas & @OKC-LAL.
Of course the Mavs will stumble here and there before the season’s over, but if the Nuggets actually manage to still be in the hunt for the 2 seed by the last week of the season, that would be pretty damn amazing.
by ParkHillNative on Mar 10, 2010 1:10 PM MST up reply actions
Nuggets will end with the 2nd seed (you heard it here)
Dallas will barely make through the 1st round (especially if they get OKC)… It’ll be Nuggets and Lakers in the WCF again
How 'bout this...magic 8 ball says:
Lakers chemistry meltdown continues unabated to the point that they fall to third. Artest does something involving public nudity and law enforcement officers while on the road for the Sacramento game, details are not clear yet.
After some inspired play be Petro and the return of Lawson, the Nugs take 1st! Dallas pulls off second after laying some stinkers against their weaker opponents due to injury.
When the playoffs start, Martin returns rejuvinated to average a solid double double as we summarily dispatch the Blazers in 5. Facing the ascendant Thunder, the dysfunctional Lakers get thrashed by the Durantula and friends. Jackson and Kobe abscond to Chicago after this humiliating exit as the Lakers disintegrate.
Everythings clicking for the Nugs; they’re given a challenge by Dallas but take it in 6. Then, in the finals, the all star matchup that everyone really wants to see, Melo vs Lebron and his big ass feet, a match for the ages!
(I think this may resemble the fantasy that SK is having, that is if that Gomez Adams looking mofo isn’t preoccupied with some biggie from the roller derby squad.)
My thoughts:
Denver’s remaining sched:
Wed 10 @ Minnesota – W
Fri 12 @ New Orleans – W
Sat 13 @ Memphis – L (if we lose one game on this trip it’s this one)
Mon 15 @ Houston – W
Tue 16 vs Washington – W
Thu 18 vs New Orleans – W
Sat 20 vs Milwaukee – W
Tue 23 @ New York – W
Wed 24 @ Boston – W
Fri 26 @ Toronto – W
Sun 28 @ Orlando – L – Dwight and co. prove to be too much
Mon 29 @ Dallas – L (sorry, we’re not beating Dallas in Dallas without Kenyon)
Denver finishes out March at 9-3, which would put us at 51-24.
April
Thu 01 vs Portland – W
Sat 03 vs LA Clippers – W
Wed 07 @ Oklahoma City – L (Revenge of the Durantula)
Thu 08 vs LA Lakers – W
Sat 10 vs San Antonio – W
Mon 12 vs Memphis – W
Tue 13 @ Phoenix – L
For a final record of 56-26. I think that will be good enough for at least the 3 seed, maybe the 2 if LA continues its slide. I don’t think that’ll be enough for the 1 seed, Denver’s forfeited too many games on the road that they should have won already.
So, probable matchups:
1) LA
2) Dallas
3) Denver
4) Utah
5) Phoenix
6) OKC
7) Blazers
8) Spurs
1st Round:
LA vs. Spurs, Dallas vs. Blazers, Denver vs. OKC, Utah vs. Phoenix.
2nd Round:
LA vs. Utah, Dallas vs. Denver*
WCF:
LA vs. Dallas
Finals: Dallas vs. Cleveland – the NBA finally gets its dream matchup.
*Denver will not be able to beat Dallas the way Dallas is currently built. They have way too many threats for Denver to counter at this point between Dirk, Damp, Haywood, Butler, Terry and Beaubois, particularly if Kenyon isn’t healthy. We might take them to 7 games but if Denver matches up against Dallas I think they lose that series. PLUS I think it also makes them a VERY difficult out for the Lakers.
As much as I dislike the Mavs, they look poised for a championship run through the playoffs this year. Makes you think what might have been had Denver traded for Butler and Haywood, especially with Kenyon’s injury.
Swats.
True dream matchup for Stern
Is probably Grizzlies-Bobcats or Grizzlies-Bucks
But they won’t make the playoffs
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
We'll lose to Orlando and Dallas?
We’ll win at least one of those, if not, both. They’re elite teams afterall.
Dallas won't be able to maintain they're too close for comfort streak
A lot of those games have been to easy creme puff teams to boot. Dallas will get the 3rd seed and Denver wins in 6 in the 2nd round to face the Lakers.
Dallas has been very good as of late
Because they’re just better talentwise.
They have Caron Butler, Jason Terry, Jason Kidd (who’s still surprisingly good), Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion to pester opposing SF, and Brendan Haywood to dominate down low against smaller frontcourts. AS well as JJ Barea and Rodrigue Beaubois to provide incredible speed. Those two combined are better than Lawson. They also have a tough guy in DeShawn Stevenson.
If we want to beat them, we need HCA (Home Court Advantage). Otherwise, we should just accept a second round exit.
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
-1
Sorry Lack but I don’t belive Dallas is as big a threat as you and beefy make them out to be. (read comment by nohhops)
Remember Utah went on their tear just a week and a half ago and have since cooled down. During that run however, everyone from TNT and ESPN had them @ the 2 seed…Not gonna happen. Now people are saying Dallas will win the WCF…not gonna happen. It’s Den vs LAL
by Joelsopinion on Mar 11, 2010 8:34 AM MST up reply actions
Denver actually matches up really well vs Dallas, Kmart or No Kmart
Consider that Chauncey is big enough and wise enough to be able to handle Jason Kidd. Afflalo is every bit good enough of a defender for Butler. Marion (like everyone else) can not stop Melo, Dirk will get his regardless of whether or not its Nene or Kmart defending him, but Dirk got his last year too….didn’t matter. Either Nene or Petro is big enough to bang with Haywood. Terry is a good sixth man…ours is better. Lawson>Barea, Bird>Dampier. Beaubois and Stevenson most likely will not play because most teams go to an 8 man rotation for the playoffs, only ours insists on using it year round
Why live life on the edge, when you can jump off?
recent history
mavs played in the finals and lost. the following season they had the best record in the regular season and lost to golden state in the first round. last season they beat the high and mighty spurs in the first round then were bitch slapped out of the 2nd round by denver.
pick up a calf every day pretty soon you will be picking up a cow
by nohoops4u on Mar 10, 2010 11:49 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
If we draw Blazers, we're out first round
OKC will make us go to 6 games. I don’t see us beating Dallas w/o HCA.
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
Read comment above
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
To expand
There is such a thing as too much optimism. And then there’s “If we draw Blazers, we’re out first round.” I disagree wholeheartedly with this statement.
What leads you to believe the Nuggets can’t defeat the Blazers (particularly with HCA as you put it)?
by Uh on Mar 10, 2010 5:56 PM MST up reply actions
lol, i'm a Blazer fan and even I know thats true...
Free Mike Rice!
by In Walks Rudy on Mar 19, 2010 9:39 PM MDT up reply actions
Lay off the sauce young man
Kenyon has a knee-tendon injury, he didn’t die and put a curse on Denver with his last breath.
by runningdonut on Mar 10, 2010 5:58 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
LOL....epic
LACK….you have the best fanposts, but what’s with all the pessimism?
"Groovy" Ash from Evil Dead 2
"No one came from miles around / and said man your music is really hot" No One Came...Deep Purple
OK I'm a closet Blazer fan
But really, the Nuggets will beat their first-round opponent.
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
We own the Blazers
OKC is too young.. we beat them in 6. Dallas will be tough but nobody said this would be easy.
lol, no way Denver loses to Portland...
maybe if Oden comes back and is somehow great.
by Is it The Shoes? on Mar 15, 2010 11:02 PM MDT up reply actions
Those are pretty much the standings as they are now
Good stuff though. Thing is, I’m buying Dallas as being very good right now but very championship-y at all. No way they beat the Lakers in a 7-game series without home court. We have a better shot at that than they do. Playoffs are a different beast. The games change, it becomes all about matchups and toughness where physical play shines. The Mavs have an aging roster, they are a very deep team heavy on older finesse players. They don’t have the killer instinct to win a championship, they won;t go farther than we did last year
by runningdonut on Mar 10, 2010 5:56 PM MST up reply actions
not very chip-y is what I meant about Dallas
Also, if we get 56 wins like you said that would be great, it could theoretically be enough to get the 2 seed if we tie Dallas but beat them in that last game to get the tiebreaker. We’re gonna win that game, too
by runningdonut on Mar 10, 2010 6:02 PM MST up reply actions
I can't wait until the end of this month when we play in Dallas
If we beat them without KMart, then it’s settled. The Nuggets are the 2 seed
On Hollinger's Daily Power Rankings (which uses a complex automatically updated formula)...
Mavs are 13th. If they win another game, they’ll probably be 14th. Nuggets are 5th.
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
Hollinger’s rankings are like a science. A science conducted by gerbils whilst ingesting huge quantities of LSD, but a science nonetheless.
by aLuffabo on Mar 13, 2010 3:01 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Stats are unkind to Dallas
Despite their huge winning streak, the Mavs have a poor point differential, which when projected out long term predicts a worse record. The Mavs are also outside the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency, so Hollinger’s mad scientist computer model gets stumped trying to figure them out. It’s funny actually how bad this analysis thrashes the Mavs, especially since Mark Cuban is a big supporter and advocate of using it.
by runningdonut on Mar 13, 2010 3:15 PM MST up reply actions
And Hollinger wrote a very long article about why the Mavs are 13th
Which could be easily summarized in the one paragraph that you wrote. Screw ESPN
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
Great idea runningdonut
Here’s my (admittedly unscientific) predictions:
West:
1. LAL
2. Dallas
3. Denver
4. Utah
5. OKC
6. Phoenix
7. Portland
8. San Antonio
The top 4 should be fairly self-explanatory. After that I had OKC in 5th…maybe a little optimistic, but they are a very talented team and don’t have too gruesome of a schedule. I know I will definitely enjoy a Utah-OKC matchup…a tossup I think.
Phoenix will slide to 6 and end up as the Nuggets’ first round matchup. Shouldn’t pose a huge problem, maybe 6 games at most. The Nuggets with home court should dominate that series.
Portland has a fairly nice schedule (though I didnt dive too deep into it), and I predict will end up facing the Mavs (that one will be a blowout though…4, 5 games). Although I have to say, it’s not that Portland is going to go on a big win streak…it’s more that I can easily see the Spurs crumbling and falling to 8th. Like you said, the Spurs are injured, have a tough schedule, and just haven’t had sustained success at all this year.
In the East, I’m leaning toward Toronto Charlotte Milwaukee Chicago as the bottom 4…both Toronto and Charlotte could potentially upset Boston, and I think both might have a shot at beating Atlanta (unlikely though). I do think you are overestimating the Bucks however.
Semis I predict matchups of
LAL-OKC
Dal-Den
And from there…well, hope.
Dallas will be tough, but if any (non-Lakers) team can beat them, it’s the Nuggets.
Meanwhile the Cavs are looking absolutely scary. Better than last year’s version for sure, and possibly the best outfit to come out of the Eastern Conference in a while (better even than the ’08 Celtics in my opinion).
I hear you RE: the East race
The Bucks after the Salmons trade have become more complete in my eyes. They are no longer relying on Jennings to produce most of the offense and also shoot well consistently. Bogut who many think is a stiff is actually a skilled young big who seems to be re-invigorated by playing meaningful games in a playoff race for the first time in a while. Toronto I have trouble getting behind because they are by far the worst defensive team in the league. They are soft up front and Turkoglu is just an aging role player. They are extremely hot and cold, could do some damage in the playoffs but I don’t see their game suited to that. Anyhow, the bottom 4 seeds in the East will have to pray for a perfect matchup to have a chance and knocking someone out, and it;s probably not happening. Also on Toronto, I see Bosh becoming less and less interested as the summer approaches when he’ll inevitably leave for another team.
by runningdonut on Mar 11, 2010 6:38 PM MST up reply actions
Bogut > Jennings
Also, Carlos Delfino, Ersan Ilyasova, and Luke Ridnour were their 3rd, 4th, and 5th best players prior to the John Salmons trade…their two other centers still are Francisco Elson and Dan Gadzuric. However, Delfino is averaging like 10, 5, and 5, and Ilyasova is rebounding and hitting threes.
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
you forgot grossly overpaid
while describing Hedo. Just saying
"I know the game of basketball is one-on-one (oriented), but the pain of beating a defense by the pass — it confuses and frustrates the defense more than just going by a guy one-on-one." George Karl
by NuggetsLife on Mar 13, 2010 12:52 AM MST up reply actions
Portland has beaten Dallas twice in Dallas
granted not with Dallas at full stregnth, but strangle the trailblazer match up as well to Dallas as they do poorly to Utah. . . I think they pass SA though.
Not thrilled to be playing Pho in the first round . . they are like a really, really googd GS team which seems to give us trouble.
I personally
do not want to see a Phoenix first round matchup. I think we matchup poorly against them. Any other team OKC, Portland, SA would be better.
preferably san antonio actually
wouldn’t mind stomping the spurs after getting bounced so many times by them
+1
"I know the game of basketball is one-on-one (oriented), but the pain of beating a defense by the pass — it confuses and frustrates the defense more than just going by a guy one-on-one." George Karl
Not too sure about giving the lakers the 1 seed so soon
They have a BRUTAL schedule coming up at the end of march. A ton of road games, back to backs, playoff teams ect. I see LA, denver, dallas, and utah all being within two games of each other going into the final 2-3 weeks of the season
by Cargo5 on Mar 10, 2010 10:43 PM MST via mobile reply actions
I wonder if the FO has decided that without Kenyon
We’ll just need to switch on the afterburners and try to outscore our opponents ala D’Antoni style? Makes you wonder why they’d pickup a ole defender like Cook… We go to the line more than ANY other team in the entire league! If Cook can shoot a decent shot and Malik and Petro and Bird can at least contain the opposition, I think we can probably ALMOST pull this off… however I say ALMOST because this wouldn’t work and we’d get bumped before even getting back to the WCF and the Billups streak would end. I would have liked to be a fly on the wall during that Cook meeting… might have gone something like this:
Cook:
Thanks for having me guys, I need a job and will play hard for you.
Wark and friends:
Yeah we kinda like your shooting, course you know your never going to be using that right?
Cook:
What do you mean?
Wark and friends:
We’re bringing you on for Defense and Rebounding only.
Cook:
Oh shit….
Wark and friends:
…..
Cook:
ok… yeah I can totally do that for you…gulp
by InboundingLobPass on Mar 11, 2010 1:39 AM MST reply actions
i liked the kmart-coach karl fly on the wall conversation better
pick up a calf every day pretty soon you will be picking up a cow
Me too, in that one KMart isn’t actually hurt…
by InboundingLobPass on Mar 11, 2010 7:51 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
I’d love to see a Nuggets/Bobcats finals. Stern would probably rip his hair out while everyone else laughed so hard.
I call it... The Avaslug!
I am the 1st and probably only official member of the David "Dr." Jones fanclub. Until I get the newsletter out, anyway.
Syracuse Basketball 2010: Big East Champs!!! G'Orange!
Just think of the matchups!
Crash against Melo! Stephen Jackson against Arron Afflalo! Nazr Mohammed against Nene!
On a second thought…
The best matchup would be Stern against the Zebras for not giving Kobe 40 foul shots per game in the WCF.
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
Wow how did I forget that?
Also remember Malik Allen against Desagana Diop.
Nuggets-Bucks would have a higher chance of happening though. Bogut vs. Nene! Melo vs. Salmons/Mbah a Moute! Chauncey vs. BJ! Some random bench player against some other random bench player!
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
Except one is definitely better than the other
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
Outside of La who's making the WCF no matter what
OKC, Phoenix and San Antonio scare me the most. The Jazz are an easier matchup.
just so long as someone beats stupid L.A.
Free Mike Rice!
by In Walks Rudy on Mar 19, 2010 9:37 PM MDT up reply actions
Here's my NBA finals prediction
Nuggets-Cavs, with the l*kers winning because David Stern somehow included them in that series.
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
I hope phoenix keeps winning
i don’t want the nuggs matching up with them. let them have a 4 or 5 seed and play utah. i’d be much more comfortable matching up against OKC, SA or Portland. Also I think Phoenix could give the lakers a run for their money in the 2nd round.
I want Phoenix to beat Utah in Round 1
And Spurs vs. l*kers.
If Spurs don’t get the job done against the lakeshow, then Steve Nash’s team will. But then the Nuggets wouldn’t want to face a red-hot Suns team
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
Personally
I want no part of the Spurs in round one. I know we would probably beat them, but I’d much rather face OKC, Portland, Utah, even Phoenix.
by runningdonut on Mar 22, 2010 7:54 PM MDT up reply actions
Phoenix might overtake Utah for the 4th seed
They are only 2.5 games behind us and 1.5 behind the Mavs.
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
-1
You don’t want the Nugs facing Phoenix, I can assure you of that. San Antonio would be 4 or 5 games and done. No worries with those hacks now that Donaghe came out with his book.
Don't sleep on the Spurs
David Stern is still kissing their collective @$$es. Come playoff time, Manu Ginobili will average 20+ ppg, with more than half of them resulting from flops. Duncan can still give you 18-10. George Hill is underrated (where the heck is IUPI anyways?). Richard Jefferson has been heating up. I’d say 6 games for SAntonio, 5 for the Blazers, 5 or 6 for the Thunder depending on whether Durant scores 35 ppg or 40ppg. We’re not facing Phoenix/Utah in round 1 unless we collapse or Phoenix/Utah collapses.
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
IUPUI - Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis
In the middle of Indianapolis. My dad used to teach there. It’s a pretty small school basketballwise…I’m fairly certain George Hill is the only IUPUI Jaguar to play in the NBA.
by Uh on Mar 23, 2010 1:07 PM MDT up reply actions
Oh
Is it Division I?
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
""He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"We're just tough, man" - Chauncey Billups
apparently they are
Though Wikipedia tells me they haven’t made an NCAA tournament since 2003.
by Uh on Mar 23, 2010 3:08 PM MDT up reply actions
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