Potential extensionless Melo trade to the Magic

one can only imagine that ‘something’ isn’t referring to a lottery draft pick

I think even if you sold off Melo as rental, you should at least have one high impact youngster and a 1st. Or an solid young rotation player and two-three draft picks. That’s usually the going rate for rentals. If you throw in Billups too (who I agree, we should move if we move Melo), you can add another rotation youngster and a 1st or expirings + 2 1st’s. So if we’re moving both, I’d like to see one potential impact youngster, a useful rotation player, and two draft picks. Or two useful rotation players and three draft picks.

The deals I think would be palpable with Melo leaving as rental instead of as a sign and trade would be:

Orlando: Billups/Melo and a 2nd for Anderson, Orton, Nelson, Carter, and a coupla first rounders (knowing the 2011 pick will likely be mid-late 20’s and the 2013 pick with slightly more variance). Orlando is ready for a championship run now so I think they’d really be willing to move anyone not named Howard. Unfortunately, their roster just isn’t great to pick over for a team that wants to rebuild. We basically get expirings, a solid PG, the two other youngsters on their roster, and a couple of first-rounders. I’d call this deal a B- for the Nuggets but honestly, it’s all Orlando has to offer.

Houston: Melo and a 2nd for Battier, Jeffries, Hill or Patterson, and the 2011/2012 picks from NY along with Houston’s 2012 1st. Houston hasn’t played up to expectations and may be willing to move future assets for one last run with Yao. Also, Houston was on Melo’s original trade list so they might believe that with half a year there, they may be able to talk him into the extension. I’d call this deal a B+ for the Nuggets simply because we’d get a young big, 3 first’s, and maybe another trade asset in Battier (I could see a contending team trading a late 1st for him).

Dallas: Melo for Butler, Beaubois, Jones, Ajinca, and a coupla firsts. I think this would be very intriguing to Cuban. He’d get to throw out a Chandler/Dirk/Melo/Kidd starting foursome with Haywood, Marion, and Terry second unit. He might also believe he can talk Melo into an extension because he’s a helluva good talker and a fun owner. We get a nice expiring in Butler and 3 youngsters with varying ceilings and a coupla firsts. I’d say this is a B+.

Indiana: Melo for Dunleavy, George, Hansbrough, and a couple of 1sts. Indiana’s making a pretty legit playoff run this year and they wouldn’t have to give up anyone that hurts their current roster. The only question is whether Granger and Melo can both play at the same time. I think the gamble would be worth it as they could go Hibbert/Melo/Granger upfront to start and/or use Granger to lead the second unit for chunks of time at the 3. Nuggets get an expiring, a very risky but super high ceiling player in George, and a useful rotation big in Psycho T along with the usual draft picks. It’s possible those firsts will have more value than previous trades too because Indy’s W-L record probably has the most variance over the next few years compared to previously listed teams. I’d call this a B+ as well.

Milwaukee: Melo/Bird/Balkman for Redd, Illysova, Sanders, Mbah a Moute, and a couple of firsts. Milwaukee would be an ideal place to dump Bird and Balkman’s contracts because they don’t have the trade assets for Melo straight up so they would have to take back additional baggage and they have a huge expiring in Redd. Milwaukee could probably put together a pretty solid playoff push with Jennings/Melo/Bogut and they wouldn’t really damage their current rotations. I like Illysova but Sanders and Moute are likely late rotation players at best and their 1sts could be pretty useful after Melo leaves. I’d call this a C but I do like the idea of getting rid of our remaining questionable contracts.

Realistically, I can’t grade any Melo rental trade as a A as I just don’t think any team would be willing to part with a real impact youngster and multiple firsts (basically Favors + 2 1sts or Gordon + 1sts, or similar) because they’re too far out of the playoffs to make that gamble. There’s numerous trades I would grade as a A if Melo was willing to sign the extension with the other team but as we don’t know if he’d be willing (outside of NY), it’s too difficult now to even put together packages.

And you won’t be able to trade for him again, likely ever. It’s certainly no guarantee a player of his caliber will come up in a situation like this again while ORL is still near a championship level team (injuries, Lewis’s imminent decline with huge money left are key factors).

I have absolutely no doubt ORL fans would say Nelson and Dwight are core pieces. But if you have to move Nelson, certainly the lesser of the two, for someone who has a pretty solid track record in Melo, don’t you roll the dice? The entire point is to win a championship, something I don’t believe the current ORL roster can do. I don’t want to say their window is closing simply because Howard there, but as Lewis keeps making more money and producing less, you have to wonder how long ORL’s immediate championship window is.

And you say trade away some good young pieces, which pieces are you referring to other than Nelson? Gortat? Reddick? Bass? If you can trade any of those players for someone who can help you immediately and happens to be expiring, I don’t see that as any sort of obstacle.

Having that option is everything. If Melo’s option next year was a team option, we wouldn’t even be having this discussion. It all comes down to flexibility. Despite the fact Billups’s contract is overpaying, it’s still the team’s option to make that overpay. They’re not locked into it which means everything. In addition, even if they let Billups go, they’d be saving themselves a ton of guaranteed money next year by making this trade.