As Miami goes, so goes Carmelo?

Since this is my first fan shot, and most if not all of you don't know me, here is a quick bio before I get started with my thoughts.......I grew up in Denver and have followed all the Colorado teams (huge homer).   At 21 I left for So Cal.  Only once during my stint there did I adopt any of the Los Angeles teams, and that was the Kings.  The only reason I did, was the Avalanche were still the Nordique's and I arrived in So Cal in '89, 6 years prior to their inception.  The Rockies had not come in to being yet either, but I was not much of a baseball fan then.  I lived close to the beach for 13 years,  and its also where I met my wife.

My wife and her brother were successful Los Angeles Ticket Brokers.   It did not take long before I got involved myself.  Cut to 2003, her and I had a chance to come to Colorado and start our business here.   We have been in business ever since and it has really given me a unique perspective on our sports teams here....

Since my livelihood depends on the success and failure of our teams, I am pulsed on all that I can get my hands on.  Not much different than handicapping a horse race, and/or investing in a small cap company.  Based on much of the news, we have taken a dim view on the direction of things at Chopper Circle.

With that said, in Miami, it seems that star power has taken over.  For the record, I really lost all respect for Lebron.  Not for leaving Cleveland, but kicking them in the face on his way out....ouch.  However, my fellow brokers are feasting on everything Miami Heat right now.  The Nuggets, the NBA are no different either.  If you recently tried to get a single game ticket for the Nuggets v Heat you are aware of their pricing.  That goes for the secondary market as well, where my business resides.

I really think there is potential for a cautionary tale.  It is perceived that the Heat are going to blaze right through to the finals and be crowned champs (no pun intended).   There is a dark side to this situation.  All the angst that has built up for how the Heat came together, could manifest itself into very different outcome.  We know that at home Miami is going to feel all the love.  However, when they go on the road, it could get down right ugly.  I hope the NBA, and I am sure they will, has extra security at those events.   The verbal abuse is going to be at a very high  level.  I fear it may even go beyond that in certain places.

How are they going to handle that level of distaste?  If they win, no problem.  In fact, they could give rise to thoughts of challenging the bulls single season record for wins.  This is what my fellow brokers are counting on as they pour millions into snapping up whatever ticket they can get their hands on.  My feelings are the opposite.  I am speaking specifically to the Denver Market, but  even in places such as Boston, New York or LA the face values are so high that the downside is much greater than the upside.  In order to buy the tickets you are having to pay a huge premium in comparison to the other games around it.  If you chose to go the season seat route, you are paying for 75 % of the games that you will break even at best, most likely lose.

What goes around comes around.  How many times have we seen a guy get a huge money deal or pander his way on  to a new team and immediately blow out a knee or some other type of injury.  Pro sports is very hard on your body.  It is not out of the realm that one of the big 3 in Miami will be out for an extended period of time this year.  Is the Heat deep enough to continue to win?  If not the pressure will begin to mount, and they boos and heckles will only become greater.  Suddenly, the game against the Heat v New York in NY will start to sell for 10 cents on the dollar.  Unless, by some miracle the Knick's play well this year.  This is what I am counting on.  It is essentially shorting the market.  I am advising my clients to wait and see.  They can always pay top dollar, but if karma comes calling they will do well by waiting.

What does this have to do with Carmelo?  I think he like everyone else sees the Heat as the team to beat and wants his own situation ala  CP3, Amare, and himself.  If however, the opposite happens and the Heat fall short of winning the championship and become a pariah, the seeds of doubt may start to creep in.  Is that enough to keep him in Denver?  Probably not, and yet If the team plays well and he is not traded at or before the trade deadline, the Nuggets FO would do good to find that big man to add.  Could be their last chance to keep Melo and thus avoid the dreaded rebuild.

Write respectfully of your SB Nation community and yourself.

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