Who we should be comparing Ty Lawson to...
Tywon Lawson (PG, 5'11", 195 lbs.) was drafted 18th overall by the Minnesota Timberwolves before being promtly traded to the Nuggets for a future first-rounder obtained in a trade with Charlotte. Since some people may be interested in who he ends up being like in the NBA, I decided to delve into the stats and (hopefully) something that is half-interesting...
I'll start off by noting that college stats are not always a good indication of how a player is going to perform at the NBA level (^cough^ Sean May ^cough^), but since Lawson hasn't played a regular-season NBA game yet, they are the only semi-useful tool that I have (Hat tip to statsheet.com and basketball-reference.com).
The first player I will use is All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson. They are about the same size, and both are very quick, stocky players. In college, Nelson played for St. Joseph while Lawson played for UNC. Jameer Nelson's stats during his final season in college read like this:
| Season | GP | MPG | PPG | FG% | 3FG% | FT% | APG | RPG | BPG | SPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-2004 | 32 | 33.9 | 20.6 | 47.5 | 39.0 | 79.2 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 3.0 |
On the other hand, Ty Lawson's were like this:
| Season | GP | MPG | PPG | FG% | 3FG% | FT% | APG | RPG | BPG | SPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-2009 | 35 | 29.943 | 16.6 | 53.2 | 47.2 | 79.8 | 6.571 | 2.971 | 0.143 | 2.143 |
It is worth noting that Nelson played 4 more minutes, posted up worse shooting percentages, and was the main option of his team (he didn't have a deadly 21 ppg, 8 rpg power-forward in Tyler Hansbrough). Their team records were both very good; the 2003-2004 St. Joseph Hawks went 30-2 while the UNC Tar-Heels went 34-4.
Nelson wasn't spectacular during his first season, but improved in pretty much every catagory in his Sophomore season. However, as a Nuggets' fan, I really wouldn't mind Lawson posting up something along the lines of 8 ppg and 3 apg on 46% shooting in his rookie season, as he'll be backing up Billups and (hopefully NOT) Anthony Carter.
The second player I'll use is Raymond Felton, a former standout UNC point guard currently playing for the Charlotte Bobcats. Felton is about two inches taller than Lawson and looks a bit skinnier. His college stats read like this:
| Season | GP | MPG | PPG | FG% | 3FG% | FT% | APG | RPG | BPG | SPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-2005 | 36 | 31.7 | 12.9 | 45.5 | 44.0 | 70.1 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 2.0 |
Felton didn't score as much, not was he as good from the field or the line, but he was a bit better of a passer and rebounder. He is a better scorer than those stats might indicate, but not as good as Lawson. Felton has done a decent job of being a good point guard on a crappy team. His shooting percentages are lower than they really should be because he is forced to carry too much of a scoring load. If he were on a better team, he would average around 12 ppg and 6-7 apg, but with better FG and 3-point FG percentages. I'm sure that Lawson will post a better FG % in the NBA than Felton, who barely cracked 40% in 2008-2009.
Looking through this, I'm not sure how this will predict how good Lawson will be, but both those players are starting point-guards. I'm crossing my fingers and hoping that Lawson becomes a Jameer Nelson-type likeable All-Star, and both have ONE thing in common: they were both drafted in the mid first-round, then traded immediately (Lawson to the Nuggets, and Nelson to the Magic).
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Do we have a choice?
The Nuggets FO have not done much of anything in the off season to make us competitive with the lakers. I like our bench and I like a lot of what Iv’e seen from them in the preseason but seriously, Afflac, Allen, et. al are not going to get us over the hump if we face off with the lakers again in the playoffs. Essentially, good move by the FO to shore up our reserves, bad, bad (thus far) for not aquiring a marque player to make us a serious threat to the playoff contenders in the west. If GK follows (and loves)his team as much as the rest of us , he will give serious consideration to giving Lawson added minutes this season. Ty looks REAL good so far. The Nuggs FO has not given us fans much to hang our hats on; Lawson is a much needed glimmer of hope. I’m tired of hearing about Carter’s “maturity” and supposed defensive prowess—his basketball IQ is often lacking ( more valuable than maturity on the court in most instances) and his effort on perimeter D is pedestrian at best. If this is all we have to work with this season ( I’m regrettfully predicting tthe trade exception deadlines will expire), than make the best strategic decisions with the personnel that we have, e.g. start J.R., give Balkman and Lawson more minutes and use AC sparingly. Get over your prejudice against rookies George, not every player is cut from the same cloth.
Lawson Makes Nuggets Whole After Trading Away Jameer
I have been pissed ever since the Nuggs traded away Jameer Nelson, the college player of the year and an absolute winner. I think they finally have healed this wound by trading up to get Lawson. He is going to really make our bench go this year. . if Karl gives him the minutes!
lawson vs. nelson
nelson is a half court player where lawson is more along the line of a full court fast break type. the skills that nelson has lawson can develop in time. lawson’s skills will never be developed by nelson. both players are only 5’11" and it is the defensive end is where their games are similar. nelson has a huge advantage with the nba leading shot blocker, leading rebounder and defensive player of the year backing him up. fast break basketball is dependent on defensive rebounding. denver was 15th in the nba last season. they will need to be way better this year to get the most out of lawson.
pick up a calf every day pretty soon you will be picking up a cow
lawson is more athletic than nelson
ty can dunk, nelson cant
also ty has a great 3 pt shot for a rook, could develop eventually better than nelson
also both are good at lob passes/alley oops
Depressing
I remember how ecstatic I was when we drafted Jameer Nelson to being a backup to Andre Miller and because i never really was a fan of ‘Dre, I imagined him taking over his starting spot by his tenacity on the offensive end and his varied skill set. In reference to nohoops4u, he would have had a premier shot blocker and rebounder in Marcus Camby, like Dwight, and a consistent scorer in Carmelo, something he didn’t have until Rashard and the emergence of Dwight over the past couple of seasons. It would have been the perfect situation, and since he is a spot on shooter and has an uncanny ability to get to the rim, he would get his points regardless. But a couple of minutes after his selection and these thoughts, Kiki washed away my fantasies of the perfect situation by trading him away and i proceeded to throw my remote control at my entertainment stand, which still has a dent in it from that night, to constantly remind me of what could have been, but all of that ended when Chauncey came and we had a steady and collective PG that we had needed for a while.
Stop getting worked up over the outcome of something you can't control.
~Anonymous
by billybobjoe22 on Oct 24, 2009 8:36 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
"i proceeded to throw my remote control at my entertainment stand, which still has a dent in it from that night, to constantly remind me of what could have been..."
This is pretty hilarious! I was also pretty bummed when Denver traded away Nelson.
Good post LACK … interesting numbers.
Denver Stiffs.com: Defending the sovereignty of Nuggets Nation.
by Nate Timmons on Oct 26, 2009 11:19 AM MDT up reply actions
Momma there goes that man.
His build/skills/craftiness remind me of Mark Jackson. Jackson’s height and strength allowed him to take his game in one direction(post-up), just as Lawson’s superior athleticism should take him in another(wing penetrator).
"I've hacked into your brain. You're throwing a party and no one's showing up."
Somewhere between Baron Davis and Ray Felton
or perhaps a more athletic Jameer Nelson
by Missing Lynx on Oct 26, 2009 4:31 PM MDT up reply actions
Jameer is the better defender
And NBA experience counts for something. If TyLaw wins the backup PG spot, I’m seeing numbers of around 7 ppg, 3 apg, and a PER of around 13-14 while shooting 44/35/80. Those aren’t bad for a rook, and aren’t far off Jameer Nelson. He’s more like Ray Felton, who is being overused by the Bobcats because they have a crappy roster.
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
lets be honest
Lawson should compared to Renaldo Balkman:
another player Karl wouldn’t play much and the fans wanted to see more of.
by InboundingLobPass on Oct 28, 2009 8:30 PM MDT reply actions
Give me some Chris Paul . . .
’Cept w/o the punch to the nether region. Only 1st game, but that was impressive,.
ok I take that back
Lawson is good and ready to play real minutes, and after only one game I’ve come to the conclusion that he will be backing up Billups more and more while JR is suspended.

by InboundingLobPass on Oct 29, 2009 2:14 AM MDT reply actions

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