Myth or Fact: The Nuggets Stood Pat and Did Not Improve This Offseason
Like an episode of "Unsolved Mysteries", by the end of reading this, you won't know any more concrete fact than when you started. We'll have to wait for the season to get underway for that (just six more days!!!).
However, I think the Nuggets have improved over the last season. Lets break down their key losses and additions from this off season.
Key Losses:
Dahntay Jones - His defense, intensity, and courage will be missed. He is also among the most prolific finishers at the rim in the league. I think his great attitude and contagious enthusiasm and cheerleader spirit will be most sorely missed, but hopefully will be picked up by other players by example.
Linas Kleiza - Aside from sporadic games of being clutch and/or exhibiting a will and effort to outwork the opponent the ability to outrun the other team and cherry-pick on fast breaks(about 1 in 10 games), he is a fairly average filler player with above average talent on offense and below average defense and basketball IQ. That sounds like all too many free agents, D-league players, and the majority of NBA players - his role won't be hard to fill. His scoring will be missed, but his shot selection and lapses on defense won't.
Age (Another Year Older) - We will see how the aging bodies of Chris Andersen, Kenyon Martin, Anthony Carter, and most importantly, Chauncey Billups holld up over the course of the season. Andersen and Martin seem to be in great shape, and I'm not going to even mention Carter... Billups is the only one I am worried about - I think he may suffer with consistency on some plays, but I expect his savvy, leadership, and decision making to allow him to be nearly as productive in slightly reduced minutes from last season.
Promises - Okay, I lied, I am going to talk about Anthony Carter. George Karl gave him his version of a promise ring in the bromance that we will see continuing at least for another season, to the chagrin of many a Nuggets fan. According to this excerpt from an article by Chris Dempsey at the Denver Post, our favorite postseason in bounds passer will likely remain a fixture in the Nuggets lineup.
"I'm sure you guys are going to have fun criticizing me on that one," Karl said. "I still love (Anthony Carter). I think A.C. is a big part of why we've been successful here. But the kid's good. The kid's had a very good summer, and he's had a very good September in our gym."
According to Carter, Karl told him this summer his minutes would not be reduced this season, even with the presence of Lawson, who is regarded as the heir apparent at point guard. Carter, who signed a one-year contract with the team in August, averaged 22.9 minutes per game last season.
Don't get me wrong, I am actually a big Anthony Carter supporter. I love his energy, effort, leadership, and hard work. However, him playing above 12-18 minutes a game will be an impediment to the Nuggets success this season.
Okay, now on to this years positives!
Key Additions:
Malik Allen - A capable rebounder and mid-range shooter who knows the game and doesn't hold the ball. Despite having very little ability in the low post, he has a toughness to him and can set good picks. I expect him to fit in well in George Karl's system and become a good role player in limited minutes.
Arron Afflalo - It seems like we're all high on this guy and no one needs much convincing. Another hard worker who is a good defender and more willing to crash the boards from what I've heard - which we will need from our guards this season. He should see time at the 2 and 3 spots, and is capable of hitting the three, mid-range J, or taking the ball to the rim. Expect him to improve in virtually every category this season, especially scoring and rebounding.
Joey Graham - If he does indeed start, as most signs are pointing to, he will fill a similar (but distinctly different) role to what Dhantay Jones had last year at the starting shooting guard, but likely in less minutes. I also see him having a harder time staying in front of quicker shooting guards, but he should fit in well since he is an intelligent player and George Karl insists on switching so often on screens.Think about it: if a pick is set on Graham's man by a forward or center, he has the strength to bang them in the paint and keep them away from the rim. He played PF and C in college, so that will be familiar territory.
Ty Lawson - We have all seen what he can do given the chance, and know his accomplishments and pedigree. I have always been a fan of adding players who won the National Championship in college. He will be a good compliment to Billups and Carter in the time that he gets, as he is lightning quick and far more athletic. I don't expect his size to be a problem, as he will adjust to the shot blocking ability of the NBA and is strong enough to not be pushed around by larger guards.
Improvement - Melo, Nene, and J.R., and to a lesser extent Balkman and Petro, have been given another off season to develop. I expect the biggest jump from J.R. - I see him scoring in the 17-21 ppg range and improving his defense, and rebounding while also dishing out 1-2.5 more assists per game.
More Minutes for Balkman - While now less certain with the emergence of Graham, Balkman should see more regular minutes sliding between the 3 and 4 position. Good things tend to happen when he is on the floor, and with another training camp under his belt, Karl will hopefully trust him a little more.
Conclusions:
I think that while it may not be in the form of picking up a star player a la the Spurs with Jefferson, Lakers with Artest, or to a lesser extent the Mavs and Blazers(with Marion and Andre Miller respectively), the Nuggets made improvements and have put themselves in position to make another prudent roster move at some point during the season if needed.
I fully expect Afflalo and Allen to combine to pick up the slack of Kleiza's scoring. Afflalo has demonstrated an improved scoring prowess during preseason, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if he came close to averaging double digits this season if given the minutes.
Joey Graham may not be the lockdown defender that Jones was, but I see him doing a more than capable job while still matching Dhantay's physicality. With J.R.'s constantly improving defense and Lawson's ability to stay in front of quicker guards if needed, I think we could be looking at an overall improved defense from last year.
I think that with the development of J.R., Melo, and the like, we can look at the roster and say there are quite a few good defenders and that there isn't really a bad defender on the team - with perhaps Malik Allen coming the closest.
While I don't expect the Nuggets to win the west, or get higher than the 3-4 seed, they should demonstrate a marked improvement over last years team. If so, they will need it come the playoffs as they are almost guaranteed a date with either the Lakers or Spurs by the 2nd round.
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Comments
Roster
For some reason I don’t think this will be the final look of our roster for the remainder of our season, I think we still have a move or two coming. Even though we stood pat in terms of level of talent, we may just have more chemistry compared to those teams that added players. The teams play all 82 games for a reason, otherwise we would just have sports analysts predict who would be good on paper and we would start the playoffs right away etc. Lets see what happens through some time in the season first, then judge if our front office messed up over the summer; it’s too early to tell if our team is better or worse off now.
petro
is the weakest link on the roster. center position on defense is the only major problem going into the season. allen, graham and afflalo are tough, physical and have a mid-range jumpshot. graham and afflalo will help with players like kobe bryant and brandon roy. kmart, andersen and balkman give flexibility on defense and can hit the offensive glass. if those three can develop a scoring threat from 15 feet it will be a major bonus. point guard position can be a 4 headed monster. billups- hall of famer enough said. jr- hit the three pointer and finish at the rim. in between he can dribble penetrate, dish off to the bigs for dunks or kick out to the perimeter for open 3 point shots. ac- runs the half court offense and defends in the half court. ty- can put full court pressure on the ball and run the fast break. with these options billups can keep his minutes below 30 during the regular season and provide additional minutes for lawson. the problem denver has had for years is getting a lead and letting teams back in the game. the portland game is a classic example. 12 point lead in the fourth quarter and the blazers came back. if denver executes the offense like utah that weakness will finally go away. this is the year melo becomes one of the few elite players in the game. he will excel in every facet of the game.
pick up a calf every day pretty soon you will be picking up a cow
might be wishful thinking but
I don’t think the Nuggs being slightly better this season vs last season has anything to do with the roster changes, it has to do with Melo not really playing over the summer and Billups having the preseason to get the team playing like he wants them to. Though I like some of the additions we’ve made too!
by InboundingLobPass on Oct 21, 2009 8:24 PM MDT reply actions
I had 3 problems with last years team...
and 2 of them have been settled.
1. Dahntay Jones. Yeah he played “d” but on offense Kobe just looked at him…didnt even guard him. We needed a better offensive threat. ( ie. Afflalo, Joey)
2. Anthony Carter. Still dont like him. I wanted a good back up point guard and we got my man Ty. (Althougth its gonna take the team screaming at GK for him to get minutes like Melo did in the playoffs last year to get Kleiza in).
3. Was GK. Playing Billups and AC together is something that should never, ever, ever happen. AC guarding Kobe? Eh. And the fact that Melo had to scream at him to put Kleiza in off the bench to get some scoring when the bench was doing anything and JR was cold. Thats why they got swept by the Lakers before. Iverson and AC backcourt?! Thats absurd!
I think there is more backcourt depth this year
so hopefully Karl won’t have as much of an excuse for playing Carter and Billups together.
However, I don’t think Graham is a better offensive threat than Dahntay.
by Missing Lynx on Oct 22, 2009 1:21 PM MDT up reply actions
Or hopefully much of an excuse to play carter at all!
But trust me. Joey is much better on offense than Dahntay. It will be seen this season. Dahntay can dunk and has hops…thats the extent of his offense.
by GottaLoveMelo on Oct 22, 2009 2:10 PM MDT up reply actions
Joey will replace Dahntay fine.
A bit less defense, but Afflalo is better on D than Kleiza and Jones combined.
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
By the way...
Not every team is going to improve. In many people’s season predictions, they mention how their team improved. When it is all said and done, the NBA will lose a bit more parity. The Mavs did get a semi-washed-up Shawn Marion, but lost Antoine Wright and 12th man extraordinaire Devean George. They gained a currrently-injured Tim Thomas and Gooden, but lost Brandon Bass. The Mavs didn’t improve much.
The Blazers are (sadly) getting better, and unless Roy’s knee explodes Livingston style, they are going to be Top 4 in the West again. I don’t trust the Spurs, and I hate the Lakers with every bone in my body. On the other hand of the NBA spectrum, the worst teams got even worse. There’s no way that the Wolves will win more than 25 games. Kevin Love is out, they are really going to miss Mike Miller’s 3pointshooting, and Rodney Carney and Randy Foye were solid pieces. In their place is Oleksiy Pecharov, some guy who’s going to stay in Spain for a couple of years, and a towel-waving bench-warming veteran in a washed-up Chucky Atkins. However, the Bucks are going to be close. They lost 20 ppg in Jefferson, and a monstrous PER with 12 ppg and 7 apg as a starter in Sessions, but at least they have inconsistent rookie Brandon Jenninings running the show!
Am I the only one who thinks that somebody really needs to snatch the 2010 Knicks first-rounder from the Jazz? Although they don’t have any needs at PG and PF, they could trade that player for a missing piece.
This is a really long stream of consciousness.
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway
I voted no change
First of all this is an excellent posting raising a ton of important issues that should be discussed. Age is going to affect this team. Billups, Anthony Carter and Birdman are all a year older and their defense is a huge asset to teh Nuggets success. They need to perform at a high level and when you get up into the 30’s as they are it does become harder to play at high level over a long season against younger, more athletic guys.
The main reason I say no change is because it’s not clear to me the Nuggets made significant upgrades. I think Joey Graham is about as good as Dahntay Jones, and Malik Allen and Arron Afflalo should make up for what was lost over the summer. I doubt that either of those guys is going to have breakout success and become an impact player next season. What I am counting on is the improvement of Nene, Carmelo and JR Smith (and to a lesser extend Balkman if he can get minutes). If all of those guys can step up their game then the bench’s job will be simple – protect the ball, play defense and rebound enough to protect leads and keep the game within reach. Those guys will have to become stars for us and play at high level to take this team to the next level.
The wildcards for me are Ty Lawson and Balkman. If these guys can get into the rotation they can bring an added dimension to the team that was missing last year. The Nugs will definitely be better if those guys can mold all of their talent into the mix. The problem is GK has his favorites and those guys will need to play extremely well to earn whatever playing time they can get. In the end, I’m a little worried the Nuggets don’t have enough size/toughness and scoring off the bench to challenge the best teams in the NBA fora championship run. If everyone stays healthy and Melo/JR/Nene step up, then they can.
We are a little better
I prefer Affialo, Lawson, and Allen over Jones and Kleiza, But who’s is our main competition? In my mind, its the Lakers since they prevented use from reaching the finals last season. So, all our additions/changes need to be looked at thru the prism of beating them. If that’s our criteria then I would give us an F!! Our lack of size up front was on display for all to see against the laker. We lack length up front and made no attempt to fix it. So we go into another season being deficient in size which leads to poor rebounding. As coach riley says, “No rebounds , No Rings”. Nene is not a good rebounder, nether is KMART, or Melo. So does Anderson have to carry the load himself, since GK is determined to screw over balkman minutes.
Time will tell…
My name is the One...
Don't Forget the Playoffs
IMO we kinda lucked out in the way the cards fell last year not having to play the Jazz or the Spurs. I think we were able to take advantage of the Mavs having a long series and the Hornets just got beaten. This year the Spurs or the Jazz or the Lakers or even the Blazers have the chance to end a Nuggets playoff run early. I hope that again this year everything goes our way….
by InboundingLobPass on Oct 23, 2009 8:01 PM MDT reply actions
I agree
We couldn’t really have had a better first round match up then playing a banged up Hornets team with similar size problems. Just like we couldn’t have asked for a better matchup in the econd round then a distracted aging Mavericks team with similar size/toughness problems.
But you could also say that the Rockets lucked out in facing an inexperienced Blazers team instead of, say, well, actually the Blazers were the best team out there
As the Mavs would never get up to 5th…
"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." -John Elway

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