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Now what? Part deux...

The news reverberated throughout Nuggets Nation like the thunder storms that hit Colorado late Wednesday night: Ron Artest will be signing with the Lakers for the mid-level exception (approximately $5.6 million per season). While some have already conceded the 2010 NBA Championship to the Lakers, others are predicting that Artest will ruin the Lakers championship chemistry.

Like the other "troubled" NBA stars of years past who joined veteran, championship-caliber teams (such as Rasheed Wallace with the Pistons or Dennis Rodman with the Bulls), I believe Artest will fit in well with the Lakers and, most unfortunately for Nuggets fans, make the Lakers better.

Even worse, Artest's arrival - and Trevor Ariza's departure to the Rockets - all but guarantees that Lamar Odom will re-sign with the Lakers. Not only can the Lakers offer Odom more than any other team (because they hold his "Bird Rights"), but both he and Artest were born in Queens, NY only seven days apart and as a result allegedly have a long time friendship.

By the way, how do you think George Karl's inbounds pass "plays" will work when the Lakers have Kobe Bryant, Artest, Odom, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum on the floor together. Gulp.

But just because the Lakers have officially certified themselves as the New York Yankees of the NBA doesn't mean the Nuggets need to give up on their summer plans to improve and go for their first championship in franchise history. A lot can happen in an NBA season, whether it be injuries, chemistry issues, off the court problems, and so forth (of course, those things tend to afflict the Nuggets more than the Lakers, but one can hope). And as long as it's within the realm of an owner's financial ability to spend without losing too much money, I believe multi-billionaire owners have an obligation to the fans to do whatever it takes to win if they have that rare chance at a title. Which the Nuggets do.

Fortunately for Nuggets fans, I believe we have one of those owners. The problem for Stan Kroenke and the Nuggets' front office brass, however, is that even if Stan is willing to spend over the luxury tax to win, the Nuggets don't have a lot of options (as we've been detailing with for weeks now).

I've already laid out four trade proposals that creatively circumvent some of the Nuggets luxury tax woes. But with Artest joining the Lakers and Hedo Turkoglu rumored to be a Trail Blazer by the time I wake up, adding a Marc Gasol or a Jeff Foster may not be enough for the Nuggets to reign supreme in the Western Conference. They'll need a free agent, too.

But how can the Nuggets possibly sign an impact free agent? They're likely going to commit at least $4 million per year to Chris Andersen, eating up much of the $5.6 million mid level exception money that the Lakers used to sign Artest, the Rockets will use to sign Trevor Ariza and the Celtics might be able to use to sign Rasheed Wallace. And if the Nuggets make any one of the trades I proposed or another deal I hadn't thought of, not only will they be well into luxury tax territory but they'll also eat into that $9.8 million trade exception, limiting sign-and-trade possibilities.

Stumped by this conundrum, I asked my friend Travis Heath of HoopsWorld.com what the Nuggets options are and he pointed out that there's already been talk of the Nuggets backloading the Birdman deal and Andersen's agent being amenable to it. Duh!! When Travis mentioned this, I couldn't believe I hadn't given this scenario more thought. By "backloading" the contract, the Nuggets could - in theory - give Birdman a five-year, $20 million deal in which he'd get like $2 million in year one, $3 million in year two, $4 million in year three, $5 million in year four and $6 million in year five. On the surface it sounds crazy to pay a 36 year old Chris Andersen $6 million in 2013-14, but by then it'd be an expiring contract that in of itself would have trade value.

The bottom line is that if the Nuggets were able to get away with paying Birdman $2 to $3 million this upcoming season, they'd have another $3 million or so of mid level exception money to spend on a free agent. That won't be enough to bag a Paul Millsap or a Rasheed Wallace or a Shawn Marion or even an Anderson Varejao, but in this economy there will be plenty of other intriguing options at bargain (by NBA standards) prices. Such as...

Channing Frye

It's already leaked that the Nuggets have "interest" in Frye, whatever that means. Thus far, Frye has had a Joe Smith-type NBA career. Meaning, he had a great rookie year but his performance has rescinded since. But if there are two things you can't coach in the NBA it's height (Frye is listed at 6'11") and age (just turned 26 in May). If the Nuggets aren't able to swing a trade for a legit seven-foot center, then bringing in someone like Frye would be the least they could do. If such a center is somehow added, Frye provides great "power forward insurance" to the injury prone Kenyon Martin and Nene. And for about $3 million per season, Frye could be had.

Likelihood: 20%

Dahntay Jones

With all the commotion over the draft, free agency and potential trades, I haven't been able to write up my offseason analysis of Dahntay Jones, a real contributor to the Nuggets success last season. We'll get more into the specifics of Dahntay's future with the Nuggets soon, but the broad strokes are that if the Nuggets were to acquire a center via trade and could get Birdman's contract down in the first two years, re-signing Dahntay must be a priority. Though he's an awful outside shooter, his value is defensively where he gave the Nuggets their first Bruce Bowen-type player since T.R. Dunn manned the starting two-guard spot. Dahntay is also a good finisher around the basket and was cheated out of playing time by George Karl in favor of an absurd Anthony Carter/Chauncey Billups backcourt. If Dahntay can be re-signed for less than $3 million per season, it deserves very serious consideration.

Likelihood: 20%

Grant Hill

Like Frye, Hill has been rumored to be in the Nuggets sights. When I first heard this rumor I didn't like it. But if the Nuggets were to lose Linas Kleiza due to either free agency or in a trade to acquire a true center, someone would need to step into the backup small forward spot and why not Hill? Yes, he's old and injury prone - although he appeared in all 82 games last season and 70 the season before, notably the two seasons when he wasn't on my fantasy team - but Hill is still a major contributor offensively and would fit in perfectly with the Nuggets new direction of acquiring character over characters. My hunch is Hill could be had for about $2.5-$3 million per season at this stage of his career.

Likelihood: 15%

Chris Wilcox

We've heard nothing that indicates Wilcox even being on the Nuggets radar, but he should be. Wilcox is a tough, bruising 6'10" and is coming off a sub-par season by his standards. Signing or not signing Wilcox would depend a lot on the Nuggets ability to secure a true center via a trade. If the Nuggets were to come up empty on the center front, Wilcox merits serious consideration. The problem is that he's coming off a $6.5 million annual contract and might not be available in the $2-$3 million range.

Likelihood: 10%

Leon Powe

File this suggestion under "Wishful Thinking," but I've wanted Powe to be a Nugget ever since Powe was, well, a Nugget (the Nuggets drafted him 49th overall in 2006). The Celtics foolishly decided not to offer Powe a qualifying offer, making the power forward who recently underwent his third knee surgery an unrestricted free agent. But given Powe's incredible attitude and work ethic combined with the wonders that Nuggets conditioning coach Steve Hess has done with K-Mart and Nene's knees, why not let Powe rehab on Denver's watch (he'd be available halfway through the 2009-10 season) while grooming him to be K-Mart's heir apparent?

Likelihood: 8%

Antonio McDyess

I hadn't even thought of McDyess ever appearing again in a Nuggets uniform until one of this blog's readers suggested it. The thinking here is pretty simple: we're paying him $3 million next season whether he plays for the Nuggets or not, so why not throw in an extra million or two and have him actually show up? Of course, McDyess would have to forget that whole "I hate Denver and will never play there ever, ever, ever, ever again" thing that he has going on.

Likelihood: 2%

Others who merit a low ball offer but will likely be too pricey: Hakim Warrick, Drew Gooden, Zaza Pachulia and Mikki Moore.

I have to admit I don't have an absolute favorite on the list above. To me, Frye and Powe have the most upside with Dahntay and Hill being the safer bets. Frankly, I don't think the Nuggets could go wrong with any of those four. But again, this all depends on the Nuggets ability to backload Birdman's contract and not get into crazy luxury tax territory through another potential deal.

Worst case scenario, I'll have fully recovered from my own ACL surgery by November and I'll take one of those remaining roster spots.

0 recs  |  Comment 25 comments

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Haha. Nice post Andrew.

IF what you have heard about bird man is true then the nuggets are in very good shape money wise. The problem is that the lakers were already over then hump last season.
(nba champs) If the lakers get odom back the nuggets are done. The nuggets now need a free agent and a really good trade to get the nuggets close to laker level. I watch every nugget game every season. "IF" the nuggets get hot during the playoffs like the rockies back a few years ago, there is no doubt in my mind we as nuggets fans will be watching our nuggets in the nba finals. But, as is, the nuggets don't come close to the lakers. And now looks like the nuggets have to go through the team we all hate, the spurs (NOT EVEN SURE WE CAN DO THAT.) hopefully the nuggets front office has a free agent or a trade that will make us all smile.

Go nuggets!

by Agent Fisher on Jul 3, 2009 4:20 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, I guess the best thing we could hope for now is that Phil's knees give out and he can't coach anymore and halfway through the season Artest and Kobe fight to the death.

This only cements in my mind that the Nugs need to focus on younger guys and play for the next 7 years, not just next year. I think anyone we pick up should have that kind of window, Powe, Dahntay and Frye.

I love Bird as much as the next guy but that kind of money seems like too much. He won't be nearly the force he was last year two years from now, especially as the rest of the league learns how to play him. The nugs need to wait on Chris and see if they can swing something better.

by NugzD on Jul 3, 2009 8:23 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I have been saying Channing Frye on this blog since you started offseason talk. Thinks about a big man who can actually shoot from distance thus spread the floor. Perfect compliment for when Melo decides to go inside or outside. (I really should get a user name)

by Anonymous on Jul 3, 2009 9:06 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I can't give up now and play for a few years down the road and I'm sure the Nugs as a team feal the same way. The Nugs were just in the WCF and only a few steps away from a championship (I think they would have handled Orlando). Have to have a big free agent or trade. It is sad that the rest of the contenders in the NBA are signing stud players but the Nugs have forgotten to so far. Once 7 is gone all bets are off on when the Nugs will have a chance again.

by Gasus on Jul 3, 2009 9:22 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Why is nobody talking about Drew Gooden? Isn't he unrestricted? He averaged like 12 & 8 last year, would be a perfect big off the bench.

by Chris C. on Jul 3, 2009 9:28 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Gooden is a garbage time phenom. Wilcox is a guy who once did a drive by ON THE WHITE HOUSE. Frye is definitely a reserve. Dhantay is probably going to either go up or down as far as his respect level with the refs and I'm not sure which way it will swing... risky to think that the refs won't call him like they did in the WCF's (tight and ticky tacky) because he's been known to get a little trashy thinking he can intimidate people, which he ultimately can't.

My ideal scenario would probably be of all things now that the Lakers got Artest: Rasheed Wallace

But apparently he's going to Boston, and you gotta think that a guy looking for a championship seeing that the defending champs just got better, there's not a lot to like about taking your chances on any team not named the Lakers in the West.

So plan B would be to bring in Gasol and Powe. That'd be decent. Enough? Doubtful, but a decent attempt.

by Eric K on Jul 3, 2009 10:32 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

7 is gone. He's wearing #1 next year.

by Brian on Jul 3, 2009 11:00 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

i refuse to lie down to the lakers and spurs.the nuggets need to go and get gasol and frye.let kleiza walk and try our luck with matt barnes or grant hill.they can be used as zone busters

by Anonymous on Jul 3, 2009 11:31 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Barnes is out there? I like that guy! Let's go after him!

Andrew, can you post a top 10 by position or something? I have no idea who the FA's are and I don't really feel like looking it up.

by Eric K on Jul 3, 2009 12:57 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Considering Frye is the Nuggets only target right now (outside of Anthony Parker who the Raptors aren't as of yet open to S&Ting).. the probably of acquiring him is %55 if not higher.

by Anonymous on Jul 3, 2009 1:31 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Good post Andy. I happen to like all the FAs you proposed. I do like Frye alot. The problem with him is he got stuck behind 2 powerful bigs in Portland but he can still contribute a lot comming off the bench. I also like Hill as well. Hill would have been better than Kobe had his career not been derailed by injuries, and all those years he didn't play are now comming in hand, even though he is a bit old. I wanted Hill to go somewhere where he would win a title but if he wants to play for the Nuggets I have no problem with it. I would hold off on Powe, he is too risky with injuries. And I would only be ok with resigning Dhante if it was for only about one to 2 mil each year. He doesn't deserve any more than that and he will eat up Weems minutes as well. Hopefully this rumor about the Birdman's contract is true.

Eric K - Here are some of the best FAs, or what's left (I bookmarked the page): Iverson, Marion, Ricky Davis, Eddy Curry, Verejao, Bynum, Granger, Marvin Williams, David Lee, Felton, Kristic, McCants, Nate Robinson, Martell Webster, Jack, Moon, Garcia, Bibby, Bass, Marquis Daniels, Nesterovic, Bogans, Bobby Jackson, Desmond Mason.

by Goldennugget on Jul 3, 2009 5:04 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks GN, a lot of those guys have to be restricted. Right?

by Eric K on Jul 3, 2009 5:22 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Pretty gloomy free agency Andrew. I guess it's just wait and see time, but so far, I don't like what I see.

To me, Frye is a younger Marcus Camby. He's a face the basket big man. He is not a one-on-one stopper. And he has a good mid range jumper. I'm not convinced this is what we need, but he would add length, which we very much do need.

Considering the table scraps that are left, I'm hoping that the FO will let things settle down, use the exception and make an early trade, much like last year.

We can only hope for such great results.

by My3Cents on Jul 3, 2009 5:54 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

lol, the max denver can increase a salary per year is 10.5%
Why don't you mention the Spurs? I am a lakers fan, but im also a realist, the spurs have a good team!

by jonathan on Jul 4, 2009 3:37 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Phil Jackson is back for the Lakers.
It doesn't matter what player we get, if we don't have a capable coach to put it all together it's for not.
GK is the coach who takes his sister to the prom.
GK has got to go in order for the Nuggets to be Champs.

by samIam on Jul 4, 2009 7:20 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Here's a wild idea... What about Shawn Marion? I think the guy still has a lot in the tank but he's been out of his element in Miami and Toronto.

Toronto just won the Hedo battle and now will be renouncing Marion.

I mean, here's a guy who can score and play D and "spread the floor" which apparently we need to do more of offensively... and most importantly, he can play D for all you that think D is our weakness. I happen to believe that we got schooled offensively, and Marion IMO would be a huge offensive addition that can hold his own all over the court. I know he's listed at 6'7" but he has an incredible wingspan and if I'm not mistaken, plays the 4 when asked. Either way regarding height, he's averaged right at 10 rebounds per game over his career. And he's only 30.

I just like the guy. He's an explosive player in the right system and I think he'd fit here better than he did in Miami and Toronto over the past few years. Just tryin to think outside the box.

by Eric K on Jul 4, 2009 11:13 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I thought about Marion too. Stepping into Kleiza's role, he immediately provides rebounding, length, and competent defense. He can provide transition offense and get up and down with the second unit.

Since leaving Nash and Mike D, Marion failed to prove himself as a number 2 or number 3 scorer. He doesn't really create his own shot and it gives us 2 awkward forwards with disgusting, atrocious jump shots. Plus, would he come to Denver for a reasonable price to play off the bench?

If we can sign and trade LK and Hunter for Marion, I'd be down. But talk is he turned down a 3 year deal for $7 million per. He's not worth more than that and we can't take the luxury tax hit. The guy has been a bum without Nash, so if we take a chance on him it better not come with another bad contract.

by runningdonut on Jul 4, 2009 4:41 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I know some people will think my Biendrins and Wright for Nene and Kleiza deal is dumb, but think about this: Biendrins is younger, cheaper, and a better rebounder and about as good of a shooter while being more durable. He's not quite as good of a defender or scorer, but in Denver's system, he is a better fit becasue Nene is not used as a scorer enough to make that matter. Also, Brendan Wright would be an excellent fourth big off the bench as an offensive force. Given twenty Minuets, he could average twelve points per game.

by Anonymous on Jul 5, 2009 2:59 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I may just be reading the tea leaves too much, but in this article: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4306502 Walsh sounds like he has a sign & trade deal up his sleeve to open cap space for the knicks. Could this be the trade exceptions the Nugs picked up last year -- resurrecting the previous LK for Lee trade that Karl nixed last year.

by Matthew on Jul 6, 2009 9:31 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

God I hope you are right Mathew.

by Gasus on Jul 6, 2009 11:45 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

2% huh...So you're saying there's a chance.

by csprings_tommy on Jul 6, 2009 4:46 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I like your posts about trade and free agent prospects. What about David Lee? He is a small power forward, but a better rebounder and scorer than KMart or Nene. He is restricted, but the Knicks probably want to get rid of him to free up cap space...do you see any possible way of acquiring Lee? What do you think of a trade where the Nuggets get Lee in return for KMart and Klieza, and maybe Hunter too? It probably wouldn't save Denver much money (if any), so that is where I see the difficulty coming in, and we still wouldn't be getting any bigger size-wise, but 16 pts and 12 rbs a game is sorely needed in Denver. What do you think?

by Alex on Jul 7, 2009 12:26 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I have a general rule that I like to go by in the NBA...don't go against Daryl Morey. On paper, it seems like Ariza is a better version of Ron Artest...defensively, rebounding, shooting efficiency and he's improving. Artest has been on the decline for a few years and it's debateable whether he makes the Lakers better. If Daryl Morey had the chance to sign Artest and didn't but instead decided to sign Ariza I would trust his judgement.

In fact, I had a conversation with Chuck Hayes a few weeks ago at a poker table at the Venetian casino. I mentioned how much I respected the Rockets and their organization. Anyways, we BS'd about a bunch of NBA stuff and I asked him which free agent he'd sign if he had his choice of anyone, including anyone on his own team, who's a free agent this year. Without hesitation he said Ariza. It's obvious the Houston organization sees something in this guy.

As far as the free agent situation why not go after a guy like Brandon Bass, Milsap, or David Lee? I feel like those guys can be signed for ~2 million next year. Rasheed Wallace is a headcase and is way past his prime, Channing Frye doesn't provide what we need (solid minutes and rebounding), and McDyess hates our front offices (it woulda been nice if we woulda kept him in the Chauncey trade).

by chantech on Jul 7, 2009 11:19 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

i have to say i am a bit suspicios of david lee's numbers. i haven't watched any knicks games but i have to say. a power fwd in a loosing mike D team, has SO MANY oppertunities to put up 16pt 12 reb. he was their only rebounder basically with 3-4 gaurds running around tossing up shots. you have to take his numbers with a grain of salt.
he will not be as good as every one thinks he will when he leaves NYC. IMO.

i still want gasol, frye or mostly foster

by nuggs0611 on Jul 7, 2009 11:23 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Nuggs,

I agree with you that his offensive numbers may have been inflated in a D'antoni offense (we've definitely seen this before). However, I don't want him because he puts up 16 points a game. I want him because he rebounds at a very high rate, he's better than the average NBA player at his position (you can't say Channing Frye is better than the average NBA player as his position) and he shoots at a high percentage which translates well to any team. Also, he can't be much worse than Channing Frye is on defense.

I'm not sure what everyone's fascination with Frye is but fact is, he's not very good and he's getting worse. A guy with similar stats who's a hell of a lot better is Marcin Gortat...and this was evidenced this off season when the smart franchises (Houston and Dallas) went out and pursued him.

by chantech on Jul 8, 2009 12:40 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

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THE STIFF LIST (as of 2/7 by Andrew)

STIFF #1: THE FUTURE OF THE NBPA
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