The Nuggets rear view mirror...
With Denver Stiffs and just about everyone else being consumed by whether or not the Nuggets can compete with the Lakers and Spurs in 2009-10, they/we must keep a close eye on the competition right behind us. They're closing in.
While I was off at Comic-Con this weekend, two big signings came down that will directly affect the Nuggets next season: the Trail Blazers signed former Nugget point guard Andre Miller and the Mavericks roped in power forward Drew Gooden, just weeks after acquiring Shawn Marion in a complicated four-team trade.
None of these moves automatically propels the Blazers or the Mavericks over the Nuggets necessarily, but both franchises have certainly improved and could conceivably end up with higher win totals by 2010. Remember, the young and inexperienced Blazers equalled the Nuggets win total last season, and the old and experienced Mavericks were only four games worse. Putting our Nuggets bias aside momentarily, these two teams need to be taken very seriously.
By adding Miller, the Blazers solidified their position as one of the deepest teams in the NBA. Miller will likely start alongside Brandon Roy (one of my favorite non-Nuggets and soon to be one of the most clutch players in the NBA), LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and a presumably healthier Greg Oden. And the Blazers have a lottery-caliber starting five off the bench with Steve Blake, Rudy Fernandez, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster and Joel Pryzbilla. And that's excluding Jerryd Bayless who had another solid Summer League. The Blazers are long, lean, deep and young and they're going to give the Nuggets fits this season. Even worse, their "reasonable" $55 million payroll - which includes $9 million owed to Darius Miles which comes off the books next summer - has the Blazers set up to re-sign Roy and Aldridge and pursue other free agents in the future.
With Gooden and Marion joining a Mavericks team already featuring Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, a presumably healthier Josh Howard, Jason Terry and Erick Dampier, the Mavericks undoubtedly improved. They did lose Brandon Bass, Jerry Stackhouse and Antoine Wright, however, and in stark contrast to Portland, Dallas' roster is old, not particularly deep and expensive. Hard data isn't available, but it can be reasonably estimated that the Mavericks payroll will be at least $91 million next season - the NBA's second highest if the Lakers re-sign Lamar Odom (by contrast, the Nuggets payroll is estimated to be about $76-ish million).
After the Blazers and Mavericks, the Utah Jazz remain a team to reckon with. Besieged by injuries to Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer last season, head coach Jerry Sloan had the Jazz in position to overtake the Nuggets late in the season until Denver finally got its act together, winning 14 of their final 17 games to secure the Western Conference's second seed while Sloan's Jazz uncharacteristically imploded. The Jazz are in a precarious financial situation, however. By offering Paul Millsap a big contract, the Blazers forced the Jazz to match and Utah's payroll currently stands at $84.6 million - the NBA's third highest if the Lakers re-sign Odom. And by matching the Millsap offer sheet, the Jazz are clearly indicating that they want to move Boozer, but with almost $13 million owed to Boozer, making the numbers work isn't going to be easy.
Meanwhile, the Hornets have stayed put and are unlikely to do much due to cost constraints, the Clippers have (in theory) improved simply by winning the Draft Lottery and the Thunder will only get better with their nice core of young star players. Of no present concern to me are the Warriors (too many swingmen, not enough structure), Suns, Timberwolves, Grizzlies or Kings, all of whom will be revisiting the lottery in 2010.
But with each passing week of the NBA offseason, not only do the Nuggets need to worry about keeping up with the Lakers and Spurs, they also need to worry about keeping the Blazers and Mavericks at bay.
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28 comments
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Comments
The Blazers, on the other hand, will be nasty. That makes me sad. :(
by Chris C. on Jul 26, 2009 5:40 PM MDT reply actions
Though I will say this Melo, and Jr. and Nene (or Ty Lawson). Can just go on a rampage and destroy other teams. Kind of like the cavs last season. I mean come on that team is awful, and still is awful on paper. Our nuggets are good if not very good on paper. We just need one of them to become a super star and our nuggets will be golden. (melo is a star not a super star yet...) any way my thoughts.
Go nuggets!!!
by Agent Fisher on Jul 26, 2009 8:04 PM MDT reply actions
I just don't see an aging Andre Miller, a travel weary Shawn Marion or a defensively challenged Drew Gooden as difference makers.
Maybe I'm just a sucker, but with Yao down Houston is weak. Dallas is stuck with Dampier in the middle and two aging stars. The Hornets are what they are. The Warriors remain a novelty act and the Clippers... please. So that leaves us really with the Lakers, Jazz, Blazers and Thunder.
Even if Odom signs with Miami, the Lakers are still the team to beat. But they will be more vulerable.
If Boozer hangs around, the Jazz will be distracted, but solid. Maybe they trade him to the Knicks for David Lee. That would make them very formidable. Possibly the best shot for beating the Lakers.
The Blazers are going to suffer from too much talent and not enough minutes. But if Oden gets his act together, they'll be tough to beat as well.
The Thunder need some time to gel. And frankly, I like Scott Brooks but he's not going to be the guy that gets them to the next level. So not this year, but two years from now... watch out.
Which leads us to our Nuggets. Let's face it, last year we experienced the perfect storm; hot at the right time, good matchups in the playoffs and health in our favor. So there are obvious questions: Can we maintain the energy level that Chauncey brought with him in the trade? Can Birdman stay hungry now that he has his payday? Can Nene and KMart stay healthy? Will Melo play defense every night?
If the answer to these questions is yes, then we will be a top tier team again this season. If not, we clearly run the risk of being in the bottom four. I'm excited to see how it all unfolds.
GO NUGGETS!!!
by My3Cents on Jul 26, 2009 9:05 PM MDT reply actions
I already picked the Blazers to win the division prior to the Miller signing, but that just solidified my prediction. Talent wise, I feel we are a much better team but like I've always said, as long as Karl's here he will hinder our ultimate success. Switch McMillen and Karl and I would guarantee the division. Sticking with the NW, Jazz had a nice run but they're done. And I actually think the Thunder have a great chance at making the playoffs. As for the Mavs, I'm not worried at all. They're more dysfuncitonal that we were the last few years. Marion and Gooden are both solid players but that whole team is just a mess. I think the we finish 4th in the West and face the Mavs first round.
by Goldennugget on Jul 26, 2009 10:00 PM MDT reply actions
The scary thing about Andre Miller to Portland is that his lob passes are going to be incredible with all of that size. Talent-wise they're missing a big-name guy, but fundamentally they'll be very sound.
I'm hopeful that Odom will leave L.A. If he does, I feel that Denver can compete with anyone in the West.
by Nick C. on Jul 27, 2009 2:15 AM MDT reply actions
"Talent-wise they're missing a big-name guy, but fundamentally they'll be very sound."
Your right. Roy is a small name, only three letters.
by Sabonis4Ever on Jul 28, 2009 6:08 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Without factoring in health - Nuggets are still better, and I'm not even gonna get into the Mavs cause they arn't worth talking about.
by Danny on Jul 27, 2009 8:03 AM MDT reply actions
All you lil' Nugget fans pray that Odom heads to Miami and becomes the Magic's problem. Let's hope that the aging Spurs and Mavs wear down by season's end. Let's hope that the Blazer's youth and inexperience shines through, and that Oden remains a stiff.
Let's just see how the rest of the off season pans out, before we start making predictions on playoff seeding.
Hey Andrew, is there anyway to tell if the Nuggets will have any cash to throw around in the free agency frenzy of 2010?
by Joelsopinion on Jul 27, 2009 8:11 AM MDT reply actions
by Brian on Jul 27, 2009 8:39 AM MDT reply actions
The Spurs are in transition. At $78MM with 12 players signed they are light on guards and deep up front with a lot of age on the bench. If Duncan's knees don't get any better, he'll be down to 28 minutes a game before the end of the year and you'll be seeing a lot of Theo Ratliff. Should be an interesting team to watch if he and Manu stay healthy. If not, they won't be much to worry about.
by My3Cents on Jul 27, 2009 9:15 AM MDT reply actions
Mavericks addressed their lack of toughness by adding more finesse players, look for them to get rolled over again by the Nuggets this year.
Everyone keeps banging on about the Spur's new blood, but they desperately needed it. The Tony Parker show couldn't even get them past Dallas in the first round, and Manu and Duncan aren't gunna be flying off the bench with huge minutes next year.
Unfortunately the Lakers with Odom just aren't beatable. They have the best player, the best coach, the best big man triple threat and the willing financier to take advantage of it all. There's is no plausible scenario where Denver can aquire a bigman to match triple threat of Bynum/Gasol/Odom.
Denver is by my account the new number 2 power in the WC. They have the best dual threat forward in the west and arguably the league's best point guard (all things considered), a 2-guard who can score anywhere, and a one of the top back up centers. By adding another offensive option to their starting line up and securing long term options off the bench for the 1 and 5 spots all without getting into a crippling long term financial bind, I'd say the Nuggets are making the right moves to bring home a championship in the next 2 or 3 years.
by Anonymous on Jul 27, 2009 10:43 AM MDT reply actions
I beg to differ.
If the Lakers aren’t beatable, everyone else should all just pack it in. Of course they’re beatable. Kobe’s got a lot of miles on him and has probably played his best year. Bynum’s still an enigma. They haven’t signed Odom yet. They’re weak at PG and Artest is a good defender but a player who never met a shot he didn’t like. They should have kept Ariza.
Denver might be 3rd or 4th in the West…not 2. Portland’s going to be 5+ games better than Denver this year. Their one-two punch of Roy and Aldrdige is comprable to anything Denver has, and they are much deeper 1-12. They got Webster back (their best pure scorer), and Oden is becoming a beast defensively. Summer reports have generally been very favorable.
by BlazerNation on Jul 29, 2009 3:37 PM MDT up reply actions
Oden has a lot to prove before we can start saying he's "becoming a beast defensively."
Probably not going to be too many Denver fans willing to say the Blazers will be better than the Nuggets and at the same time the Blazers faithful will definitely believe that they are going to be better than Denver.
Should be a nice rivalry this season for sure.
Denver Stiffs.com: Defending the sovereignty of Nuggets Nation.
by Nate Timmons on Jul 29, 2009 3:54 PM MDT up reply actions
Bynum an "enigma"
LOL, then what would you call Oden? I understand being a Blazer fan, but what exactly has Oden proven in 2 years? He’s injury prone, missing many more games than he’s played. He’s also inconsistent, plays 20 minutes a game and likes to foul out a lot. Bynum is further along towards being a good player, and even Pryzbilla is better right now. I’m not a huge fan of the Lakers, but I don’t let my homerism cloud the fact that they murdered the Western competition last year, over 10 games better than number 2 seed Denver. And they haven’t lost Odom yet.
You have to admit it’s at least debatable whether or not Oden was worth a #1 pick. Potential is just a word until you can start producing results consistently. Ask Jerryd Bayless
by runningdonut on Jul 29, 2009 4:53 PM MDT up reply actions
Speaking of “homerism”, I think many fans from rival teams have rushed to call Oden a bust. He had a fairly good season last year considering factors such as being a rookie, limited minutes, etc. There’s a couple of good articles that describe this much better than I can here, and if you want to consider the other point of view, I recommend you check them out.
http://blog.oregonlive.com/blazers/2009/07/greg_oden_has_something_to_pro.html
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/228516-the-case-of-the-misunderstood-manchild
http://mvn.com/bucksdiary/2009/07/wait-how-was-greg-oden-a-bust.html
If Greg gets his minutes, he will be a potent force in the NBA. Getting his minutes includes staying healthy and staying out of foul trouble.
by BlazerNation on Aug 4, 2009 9:01 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
From a Blazer fan, all I can say is that it’s going to be fun.
It’s to be expected that Nugget fans would hope that “…something just doesn’t seem right in Portland”, but truth is that all is right in Portland. Yeah, we missed out on Turk. That much is true. Millsap was NEVER really expected to be signed…it was a strategy by KP to weaken Utah, but of course there was always the hope. There was no outlash by Rudy – he said that he did wonder why they were going for a 3, but he’s happy, and has said so. Negotiations are fine with Roy – he’ll be a Blazer for many years to come. Things could not be any better in Portland.
Portland will be much better this year for several reasons. FIrst, 3 of our expected starters weren’t in the starting rotation last year (Webster, Oden, Miller). Oden is in much better shape than he was last year (but still has a ways to go – Coach M wants him to lose another 10 pounds – but Oden was a defensive beast in the US minicamp against Lopez and Love). Webster’s the guy who torched Utah for 24 points – in one quarter – then sat out last year with an injury. Yeah, he’s back. Miller’s exactly what the Blazers needed…a pass first PG who has a high game IQ. He’ll make Oden, Webster and Roy better players, much in the same way Billups improved several of the Nuggets.
All that said, I think Denver will eclipse their mark of 54 wins last year. Several of their young players will presumably improve and they didn’t have Billups all last season. It wouldn’t shock me to see Denver win 60 games this year.
Like I said, it’s going to be fun. Can’t wait to get this season rolling.
By the way, Bayless stunk it up in Vegas. He averages around 6 turnovers per game. That’s why we brought in Miller. The kid’s got some long term potential, but he’s a ways out.
Webster
I don’t think he’s that great yet, and probably a better fit to come off the bench to Outlaw. Webster to the Blazers seems somewhat like what Kleiza are to the Nuggets. If anything at this point I would still rather have Nene over Oden; all in all I think we are even, in terms of how many games we may win next year.
Nice artical
I do have to say that Dallas will be way too old to win a championship. The Blazers will dominate. Cant say if we will be better then Denver this year or worse. But Portland has made a great signing that will make the team way better.
Again great artical. And thanks for the post
in~ur~fizace from blazers edge
What's the differance of 3-6 mil? oh about 20+ more losses, and the chance to watch the only star leave by the end of the season. Suck it Hedo!
Who is that you ask, well that shell of a man with his junk tucked away I think his name is Hedo. At least he used to be.
Canzano is a joke. When you see him kick him in the BUTT for me!
What about the Rockets?
You covered just about every team in the west, but seemed to leave out the Rockets. Do you think they will end up in the mix, or has the Yao/McGrady combo taken them as far as it can?
About those Rockets...
Hi All Day Jay -
It’s funny because half a day after I wrote this whole piece I, too, realized that I forgot about the Rockets. D’oh! I have to believe the Rockets will be a non-factor. You can’t lose Yao, Artest and probably T-Mac and expect to compete, regardless of what a great job Rick Adelman will probably do. If I had to pick the West’s 8 playoff teams right now, the order would go as follows… 1) Lakers 2) Spurs 3) Nuggets 4) Blazers 5) Mavericks 6) Jazz 7) Hornets 8) Clippers (that’s right, Clippers!). I’m thinking the Suns are 9, the Rockets 10 and the Warriors 11. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rockets make a move and maintain a playoff spot somehow.
by Andrew Feinstein on Jul 28, 2009 4:28 PM MDT reply actions
Andre Miller can't shoot
and his greatest strength here and in Philly was initiating the fast break. He probably makes more sense for them than Turkoglu, but I’m not sure he’ll be a perfect fit on a contender like Portland who play at a snail’s pace. The Blazers were going to be a good team no matter what they did though. I still think they’re not going to defend the quicker and better PGs and I would have spent the money on some tougher interior players.
While I think we have avoided getting worse for the most part, I’m terrified of trading for Malik Alllen and giving him minutes next year, a shit move anyway you slice it
Andre can't shoot?
Really? He shoots over 47% from the floor. Now if you want to claim he’s not a 3 point shooter, I’ll give you that, but from 16 feet in, he’s one of the better shooting guards in the NBA.
by BlazerNation on Jul 29, 2009 3:15 PM MDT up reply actions
I'm not sure about the rest of the Denver fans, but for me ...
Andre was one of the biggest problems the Nuggets had in terms of the opposing team sagging in defensively.
His lack of shooting range really allowed teams to sink off of him and clog the lane. He is a heck of a finisher when he drives the ball and I’m not saying he wont find success in Portland, but that part of his game while he was in Denver really was an issue.
That aspect could be masked well in Portland because he’s going to be surrounded by better shooters than the Nuggets had during his stint on the team. Denver’s biggest three-point threat back then was Voshon Lenard.
Denver Stiffs.com: Defending the sovereignty of Nuggets Nation.
by Nate Timmons on Jul 29, 2009 3:57 PM MDT up reply actions
That may have been the case in Denver
…but in Portland, we have Rudy Fernandez, Brandon Roy, Martell Webster (yeah, he’s back – best pure scorer on the Blazers), Steve Blake, Nic Batum (needs to up his % a bit) and even Travis Outlaw. We have plenty of 3 point shooting. Keeping defenses out on these guys is not going to be a problem. Our focus needs to be more inside scoring. Andre brings that.
Yep, I agree with you. It will be masked nicely in Portland.
Denver Stiffs.com: Defending the sovereignty of Nuggets Nation.
Andre Miller
If you watch enough of his games, his field goal percentages probably come more from layups. If you watch him take mid range jumpers, it doesn’t give you the best feeling in the world where it looks a bit broken. Put it this way, Billups is a better mid-range shooter but doesn’t have as high as a field goal percentage since he doesn’t take it to the rim as much, and doesn’t run the fast break like Miller.
The Hornets just Traded Chandler for Okafor
The Hornets just traded Chandler…so much for staying pat for financial reasons….
by InboundingLobPass on Jul 28, 2009 9:34 PM MDT reply actions
Johan Petro
I know this is totally random, but does anyone know if the Nuggets plan to resign him?

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