In praise of continuity?...

by Andrew Feinstein on Jul 22, 2009 1:02 AM MDT Comment 33 comments

While the NBA's elite - the Lakers, Spurs, Cavaliers, Celtics and Magic - have been engaged in the basketball version of a Cold War arms race this offseason, the Nuggets have thus far stayed put. In fact, the buzzword coming out of the Nuggets camp has been "continuity."

"There is a value in continuity," said Nuggets vice president of basketball operations (and the current NBA Executive of the Year) in a recent interview with the Rocky Mountain Independent's Chris Tomasson. And while talking to Hoopsworld's Travis Heath during NBA Summer League in Las Vegas, Nuggets head coach George Karl noted that: "Change doesn't always make you better. In fact, I think there should be some things written that change a lot of times doesn't work." Karl predicated his statement by pointing out how young three of the Nuggets top four players are (Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith and Nene) and that each has much improving to do.

Warkentien and Karl are both right and wrong. How's that for a political answer?

Before diving into whether or not the Nuggets should focus on continuity or change, let's run down Denver Stiffs' version of current NBA "Power Rankings" for the top-1o teams in the league...

1) Los Angeles Lakers
2) Boston Celtics
3) Orlando Magic
4) Cleveland Cavaliers
5) San Antonio Spurs
6) Denver Nuggets
7) Portland Trail Blazers
8) Dallas Mavericks
9) Utah Jazz
10) New Orleans Hornets

Many fans will put the Nuggets on par with or ahead of the Spurs, but I don't see it as their rosters are presently constructed. Lest we forget than an injury-raddled Spurs team tied the Nuggets in regular season record last season and just added Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess (who the Nuggets will help pay $3 million for) while giving up virtually nothing. But considering that the Nuggets haven't made a "big move" yet (my apologies to Arron Afflalo and Malik Allen), finding themselves third in the Western Conference isn't a bad place to be right now.

So in order to catapult ahead of the Spurs and get within reach of the Lakers, will it be continuity or change for Denver? Due to simple economics (well, if you're Stan Kroenke writing luxury tax checks, it's not that simple), continuity will be winning out over change this season.

In some cases, when you have a solid young nucleus as the Nuggets do, radical change can be a detriment. We saw what happened when the 2007-08 Phoenix Suns shipped out Shawn Marion for Shaquille O'Neal and almost overnight morphed from a championship-caliber team into a playoff bottom feeder. The Suns then doubled down on stupid when they jettisoned Raja Bell and Boris Diaw (two key components to their prior success) for Jason Richardson. Going back to that 2007-08 season, the Chicago Bulls added the aging, overpaid Ben Wallace to their 49-win, young-and-gun squad and saw their win total dip by 16. And remember when the 2003-04 Dallas Mavericks wheeled and dealed for the two Antoines/Antawns; Walker and Jamison? Those deals turned a Western Conference Finals participant into a first round loser just one year later.

Fortunately for Nuggets fans, our team isn't in need of radical change. If you get a chance to revisit the four trades I proposed for the Nuggets a few weeks ago, you'll note that each puts a preference on continuity over change. In not one single trade proposal did I suggest that the Nuggets part with any of their key young players such as Melo, J.R. or Nene. But that doesn't mean a little change couldn't help and, according to Tomasson, Warkentien alludes to change in the form of "a marquee move" coming down the road. Making non-July "marquee moves" are something the current Nuggets brass has done consistently since taking over the reins from Kiki Vandeweghe several years ago.

Not to sound like a broken record, but the change the Nuggets need is to move Nene to his natural position, power forward. To do this, the Nuggets need to bring in a solid but not too expensive center, such as the Pacers' Jeff Foster or the Grizzlies' Marc Gasol. Back in February, Heath reported that the Nuggets had "substantial dialogue" regarding acquiring Foster before the trade deadline, and has since written that Foster, Gasol and Drew Gooden are on the Nuggets radar this summer. But as noted in great detail in my trade proposal column, the only way the Nuggets could get someone like Foster would be to trade Steven Hunter's salary plus Linas Kleiza. But such a combination might not be rich enough for a team like the Pacers.

In summary - and if for no other reason than the salary cap/luxury tax restraints dictate it - the Nuggets will be well served keeping their core in-tact while trying to add a true center, rather than swing for the fences for an aging, costly veteran at the expense of someone like Nene or J.R. (Melo is presumably untradeable right now). If some way, some how the Nuggets ended up with Foster or Gasol in powder blue and gold this fall, I'd put the Nuggets at least on par with the Spurs and if I were a Lakers fan, I'd be a little nervous.

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I want Gasol. Badly. But if you are so convinced that Nene cannot play Center and we need to get one... then what becomes of K-Mart's role? $15 mil player off the bench behind Nene?

I would be thrilled if we got Gasol but I think playing Center was good for Nene's game and I'm happy for him to continue that. A player like Foster is a legit 7 footer who could play off the bench, providing toughness and defensive help for Nene against big front lines like that of the LA Lakers.

by runningdonut on Jul 22, 2009 1:51 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

K-Mart may be a player with a $15 million salary, but he is not a $15 million player. I would have no problem with him coming off the bench behind Nene. A PF/C platoon of Nene, Foster/Gasol, Martin, and Andersen could be fearsome.

by Michael on Jul 22, 2009 6:29 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Lets not forget the 03/04 T-wolves either. Best team in the West with MVP Garnett dumped out of the Western Conference finals by the Lakers. The team didnt retool expecting to achieve the same thing again and missed the playoffs in 04-05. The Owners/GM need to make sure this team stays a contender and these moves arent helping enough.

We know what happened to the Wolves after this season, they stayed out of the playoffs and were forced to trade Garnett. Just because Melo isn't whining like other stars in his draft class it doesnt mean they should become complacent in building a team around him.

by theychantmvp on Jul 22, 2009 8:17 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I can't imagine Kenyon agreeing to come off the bench on a regular basis and I don't think it would necessarily be the right move for the Nuggets either. Kenyon does a great job of setting the defensive tone of the game right from the start. How many times this season did we see Kenyon deliver a hard foul or a solid defensive stop right out of the gate? Probably about 25-30 times (and I'm talking within the first two minutes of the game). Nene off the bench? Probably not. I guess Nene and Kenyon could start and then as the game progresses, Nene could shift over to PF and Foster/Gasol could come off the bench. Kenyon could then sub for Nene as needed. This would help limit Kenyon's minutes and Nene's minutes and keep them fresh for the long haul.

by Brian on Jul 22, 2009 8:29 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree with Brian - K-Mart and Nene are still the starters; and if the Nuggets manage to get a true center than at least we have the ability to play Nene at power forward against bigger teams. right now i would much rather have a big man off the bench than Kleiza. what if we threw in the guy we just got- would the pacers/grizzlies go for it then? Hunter, Klieza, and Malik Allan for Foster/Gasol?

by Danny on Jul 22, 2009 8:43 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow!

MVP are you nuts? The Nuggets are building around Melo because he's a very, check that, VERY GOOD player. There are only 4 guys in the leagueThe FO should even consider for Melo. I don't even have to mention names.

Brian & Danny. Why on earth would a team that has a Center, not start him at the 5? K-Mart should learn his role, if that were to be the case. He's a power forward locked in a small forwards body. And at 15 Million, he should just be happy with that. Fatigue would also be minimal for Nene, Kmart, and Bird, as they would have someone else to shoulder the burden.

Nene at PF and K-mart off the bench is fine with me. I just hope something like this will happen. Denver already had a deep bench last year, if a trade like this took place, you'd be hard pressed to find a deeper more talented bench.

by Joelsopinion on Jul 22, 2009 9:10 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

The Magic are the team to beat.

http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/The_Baseline/entry/view/28579/magic_intimidate_opposition_via_free_agency

by Tu.. Tu.. TULO on Jul 22, 2009 9:27 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Andrew you are the man!!

That's about were I figured our nuggets are going to be this coming season. I do agree that the nuggets need a center and then the nuggets will be in the top 4 team bracket.

I keep remembering nene getting so mad playing in the playoffs getting t's. Either he keeps his head or we need a center. (the latter seems the best choice)

Either way this is a great time to be a nuggets fan.
GO Nuggets!!!

by Agent Fisher on Jul 22, 2009 9:34 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Nuggets need a PF that can shoot. Not a stiff Center. Thank gawd you're not running things.

by Anonymous on Jul 22, 2009 10:28 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Good article in the Denver Post last Sunday on David Harrison. Is he a possibility? Seven foot. Seems to have straightened out his problems. Seems motivated. What do you guys and gals think?

by Anonymous on Jul 22, 2009 10:31 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

First off, I would replace #'s 9 and 10 on you power rankings with Atlanta and Washington. Those teams are going to surprise a lot of people this season.

Good read. I understand where Wark is coming from, and I trust him. And looking back at it now, I kind of want to hit myself in the head for even thinking of trading Nene for Sheed. I can't even believe myself for wanting that to go down. But one thing should be noted when discussing Foster and Gasol. Foster is 6'11, 32 years old, makes 6 mil a year and isn't even good enough to start. Gasol on the other hand is 7'1, 24 years old, makes 3 mil a year and should be our starting center right away if he came in. Plus he has a whole lot of potential and could grow with our nucleus of JR, Melo and Nene. In a few years, we would have a young, explosive, All-Star caliber (hopefully) PG to go along with JR, Melo, Nene and Gasol who would all be in their primes. Plus K-Mart's ridiculous contract would be off our hands and would free up a lot of space. So I think there is no doubt who we need to be targeting here, it's Gasol. Especially given the Grizz front office and the stupid decisions they have made in the past.

by Goldennugget on Jul 22, 2009 11:12 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I think it's premature to be doing top 10 rankings. How the teams are going to look hasn't really completely shaped up.

If Odom bolts for Miami, I'm not sure the Lakers are number one anymore. Plus, losing Turkoglu isn't going to disrupt the type of team they built.

And I really don't think the Spurs are as scary as everyone is making them out to be. They have stars on its team that aren't built for 80+ games, and Richard Jefferson really isn't a terrifying presence.

I also think the celebration of the Spurs matching the Nuggets record despite the injuries they suffered is misplaced.

Considering, you know, Carmelo Anthony broke his wrist and was suspended for a game last season---and K-Mart suffered injuries as well.

It's not like a depleted Spurs team matched the record of a Nuggets team that was at full strength all season.

by Bryan on Jul 22, 2009 12:06 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

OK guys I want to throw this one out there. I think the cavs gm is awful. I will tell you why. He resigns and the flopper for almost 35 mill and the chance of being almost 50!!! when he could have called up odom for the same offer.

Explain why people like this GM?

by Agent Fisher on Jul 22, 2009 12:12 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

GN,

The articles I've read recently have said that the Grizz won't make any trade of Gasol unless it is viewed as lopsided in their favor. After the trade with the Lakers, the FO there is gun shy and afraid of even more criticism.

Hopefully, Wark can find a way to get it done. With the trade exemption and $5 million in expiring contracts, they have very attractive assets to offer in return.

by KarlSucks on Jul 22, 2009 12:23 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Agent Fisher - Nobody thinks Danny Ferry is a good GM. He is probably one of the worst in the league actually. The only thing he has done semi-well is drafting. He has had possibly a top 10 player of all time on his team for 6 years already and the best players he ever put around him were Larry friggin Hughes, Mo Williams and a 37 year old Shaq. That is beyond pathetic and inexcusable. He's been bailed out because of how good Lebron is, but if he wasn't such a dumb ass he could have already brought Cleveland a title or two. I think he has actually done a pretty good job this off-season, but only because he had to. All the other contenders (except for us) got a whole lot better so he had to make moves just to keep up with them. But he shouldn't be just trying to keep up, he should be setting the pace. I honestly don't know who is the best team in the East right now, it's so close, but if the Cavs manage to get another All-Star then they are the favs. But yea, Danny Ferry is a complete moron if you ask me.

by Goldennugget on Jul 22, 2009 12:36 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I would like Gasol to come to Denver, but remember: Grizzlies FO, bunch of Laker fans, not gonna help Denver get any stronger...

Nene and Kenyon should start. I agree with Danny. I'm not big on Jeff Foster actually. David Lee would be great to have, but he's no 7-footer either so that wouldn't help solve the size problem.

Maybe we're looking too far out of reach. I think Steven Hunter -when healthy- can be a worthy backup big man. If that doesn't pan out, trade him along with some other minor contributants for someone who is. He hasn't really been able to show himself, but he was doing allright in Phoenix and Illadelph, so why not give it a shot. We've seen what Steve Hess has been able to do with injured bigs.

by Geerten on Jul 22, 2009 3:14 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

As much as I would love Gasol, I just don't think the Nuggets have the pieces to get it done. I don't see the Grizz trading him. One much cheaper alternative would be to try to get Haddadi from them, a 7'2" center from Iran who played well in the Olympics. Granted he's done next to nothing thus far in the NBA, it would probably not cost us a lot and it'd be a pretty decent experiment. I just don't see a lot of burly center-types that are out there available for trade. I just don't think Foster is the answer, at least not for what we'd have to give up to get him.

We might be waiting until the trade deadline this year when a few more teams might be willing to part with players.

by Denverson on Jul 22, 2009 3:54 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Remember this is Marc Gasol - not Pao - and Jeff Foster we are talking about. I dont want to say these guys suck or anything but neither one is as good as K-Mart. I realize we have clearly got height issues and size problems but neither one of these guys would be good enough to start.

Thats not to say I dont think we should trade for one of them though - having either one of them would help with matchup problems that have plagued the Nugs for a while now.

by Danny on Jul 22, 2009 3:57 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I honestly don't see Denver having the rght pieces to land Gasol. I think Foster is Denver's best bet. I would go with Foster in a heart beat but i couldn't start him over Martin.

by Garrett on Jul 22, 2009 4:02 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

What about Harrison that went to CU? He could easily be the next birdman($$$wise) and he's a true 7ft big BIG man. Just seeing whaT you'll thought

by JasonR on Jul 22, 2009 4:16 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

jasonR- HArrison tends to be lazy and is not really a tough banging big man like what Denver needs. Granted, Gasol isn't either but Gasol could put up 12 and 9 for you a night. Foster is the banging guy Denver needs to cement the missing brick to the most talented and well rounded team in the NBA. Harrison may be worth a look, but i don't think he's the missing piece.

by Garrett on Jul 22, 2009 4:21 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Nugs have to have a good big. Neither Gasol nor Foster are the answer. Both will get beat up big time by LA or San Antonio. The reason the Nuggets were good last year was Billups, period. I don't know why everybody is so content to try it again next year with the same team plus a stiff when every other good team out there is making big moves to try to match LA and Boston.

by Gasus on Jul 22, 2009 4:38 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

What's wrong with Nene at center? He's got the quickest feet of any center in the league and fits perfectly with Denver's up-tempo, fast break scoring. I don't see how replacing him with a guy who 3" taller but can't get up and down the floor would do them any better. The only thing they need to do with their starters next year is add JR to dissuade/punish teams that double Melo, and Denver is one of the scariest starting line-ups going into next year.

Replenishing the bench is the less glamourous, but ultimately the more urgent priority for Denver. They need scoring off the bench, Kleiza is the most cost efficient option available now(and who knows, he might play his ass of next year and try for a big payday next summer). This leaves them:

Ty/AC?
Afflalo
Kleiza/Balkman
Allen- will he stay or is he just a trading chip?
Andersen

If Kleiza doesn't come back, that leaves Balkman and Bird on the floor at the same time(they effectively play the same type of game), and puts offensive production squarely on Afflalo, Allen, and who ever the favored PG is. I don't know if I'm too confident in a bench without LK, and I doubt they will let him get away or use him in a trade. What type of "marquee" trade they can pull off with such limited trading chips remains to be seen.

by Anonymous on Jul 22, 2009 4:49 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I am completely in support of getting Gasol. Marc is not Pau, but remember he entering only his second season. In his first season, he averaged 11.9 ppg (on 53% shooting) and 7.4 rpg in 30.7 mins. In Pau's first season he averaged 14.7ppg (51.8%) and 7.4rpg in the same number of mins. So, Marc really is not that far off in production...he probably will never be as good as Gasol, but he is a vast improvement over what we have at the C spot. I think Gasol is one of the few players Klieza is worth giving up for (not Foster at all!) He would be great in a starting lineup with Nene...or else Kenyon could start, but only play early in the half like with Jones last year.

by Alex on Jul 22, 2009 8:31 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Anon makes a good point, Kleiza might be needed more than we think with JR starting now. From what I've heard nobody is interested in him right now, but if someone offers a deal we may have to match.

by Goldennugget on Jul 23, 2009 12:37 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Let's not be so quick to give LK away ... I'm certain he's gonna have a much better season this year. And when he's firing, he can be devastating as a back-up scoring option. I wouldn't trade him, unless the deal is lopsided on our favor.

by zaf on Jul 23, 2009 3:44 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Those are some good points - when JR starts we say goodbye to the bench scoring big time. Kleiza would be the only one on the bench with any real scoring ability at that point. Kleiza as a #1 option doesn't sound too good - we may have to stager melo and JR's minutes a little or something.

by Danny on Jul 23, 2009 6:36 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Another man's opinion

by Sniffy The Hoo Hee on Jul 23, 2009 10:37 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

forgot the link: http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/article/2009-07-22/contenders-have-emerged-after-offseason-moves

by Sniffy The Hoo Hee on Jul 23, 2009 10:37 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Can someone pls remind me what trade exceptions do we have remaining? And when will the Camby trade exception and Iverson trade exception expire? Thanks :)

by Anonymous on Jul 23, 2009 10:55 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/08-09teamsalaries.htm -exceptions

by Anonymous on Jul 23, 2009 1:19 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

The Celtics at TWO?! They are a one and done team if they can stay healthy maybe they are a #5. With teams like the Bulls and Hawks in the east along with the Magic and Heat? Boston has no chance in the playoffs next year.

by Anonymous on Jul 23, 2009 6:35 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

What about Brendan Haywood? A sign-trade with Kleiza / Hunter could land him. He makes $6 this year, but Washington probably won't re-sign him since they are high on JaVelle McGhee as their center of the future.

Haywood is a good defender and isn't afraid to bang with anyone and even put LeBron on his ass in the playffs a couple years ago. Plus, he's more than serviceable on the offensive end.

That seems like the best option to me.

by EY The Scribe on Jul 27, 2009 3:59 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

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THE STIFF LIST (as of 2/7 by Andrew)

STIFF #1: THE FUTURE OF THE NBPA
If the NBA owners opening proposal for the new collective bargaining agreement is any indication, we're heading for a lockout in 2011 and after that, smaller contracts, smaller salaries and less revenue shared with the players.

STIFF #2: THE CLIPPERS
After correctly kicking Mike Dunleavy upstairs and rightly installing Kim Hughes as head coach, why are rumors of Isiah Thomas joining the Clips circling around already?

STIFF #3: THE EASTERN CONFERENCE
Rumors of the re-birth of the Eastern Conference have been greatly exaggerated. Yes, the Cavaliers are awesome but the sixth playoff seed might be sub-.500. And do you think any of the West's top six teams fear the Celtics, Magic or Hawks? No chance.

STIFF #4: ANKLE INJURIES
First Carmelo Anthony. Then Chauncey Billups. And now possibly Arron Afflalo? Tape those ankles up, dammit!

STIFF #5: NEW JERSEY NETS
4-46 and losers to the lowly Pistons on Saturday night. But Lawrence Frank was the problem, right?

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