Taking the sting out of the Hornets (Nuggets/Hornets Playoff Preview)...
A few readers weren't thrilled with Denver Stiffs decision to outline the Nuggets various deficiencies entering the postseason against the New Orleans Hornets. But fortunately for Nuggets fans, the Hornets have even bigger problems. And if the Nuggets can exploit them properly, this series could be over in five or six games (ok, make that seven games...but not a game more!).Here's a category-by-category comparison of the two teams...
HEALTH
I know this story is already getting old, but you can't talk about the Hornets without mentioning the injuries to Tyson Chandler (foot), Peja Stojakovic (back) and James Posey (elbow). Chandler missed 37 games this season and played like he was missing in half of the 45 games he appeared in. Clearly bothered by his injured foot, Chandler posted his Hornets-career lows in scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage. After missing 15 straight games, Chandler played 20 minutes against the banged up Spurs in the final game of the season and managed to pull down a mere three rebounds while not blocking a single shot. Stojakovic hasn't fared much better. Having missed 21 games, Stojakovic posted the worst shooting percentage (39.9%) and scoring average (13.3 ppg) of his career since his rookie season 11 years ago.
On the Nuggets side, Kenyon Martin seems to be relatively healthy after battling back spasms all season and a bruised rib recently. And Carmelo Anthony has played better since breaking his hand, because it enabled him to rest his sore elbows.
ADVANTAGE: NUGGETS
POINT GUARDIt's pretty rare when your team has a top-five point guard but your opposition has the league's best point guard. If you're curious as to how the Hornets won 49 games in spite of being decimated by injuries, having no bench and ranking 26th in scoring, 26th in blocked shots and 27th in rebounding, look no further than #3 - Chris Paul. Paul just completed the rarest of feats in NBA history by becoming the first player ever to lead the league in assists and steals for two consecutive seasons while also being the first player ever to do that while also finishing in the top ten in scoring. Wow.
But in Chauncey Billups, the Nuggets don't just have a fine point guard who helped complete their "Extreme Makeover" this season, but a former NBA Finals MVP. Believe it or not, only six active NBA players have a Finals MVP Award. And you won't see Billups barking at his teammates with that "what the @#$%?" look on his face that we regularly from Paul. That being said, the advantage is still Paul's, even though the two will rarely guard each other.
ADVANTAGE: HORNETS
SHOOTING GUARD
Starting shooting guard is the weakest link for both the Nuggets and Hornets. The Hornets start Rasual Butler and his erratic 43.3% field goal shooting (up from 35% last season). Check out Butler's shooting in the final eight games of the season as the Hornets were fighting desperately for a home court advantage: 3-14, 9-15, 3-9, 4-11, 2-7, 5-12, 1-9, 4-11 (and no, those aren't J.R. Smith numbers from last season). And you wonder why the Hornets lost six of their last eight.
But while we all admire and respect the nightly effort the Nuggets get from their shooting guard Dahntay Jones - especially on the defensive end - we still cringe when the ball is in his hands on the offensive end of the floor. And I'm still not convinced that Jones is as good a defender as everyone says he is. He falls in that shooting guard "we all say he's a good defender because he can't shoot" category, like his predecessors in Denver Yakhouba Diawara, Tariq Abdul-Wahad and Bryant Stith. But to Jones' credit, he's a hard working pest who will use his six fouls to bother Chris Paul throughout this series.
ADVANTAGE: EVEN
SMALL FORWARDAt small forward, the Hornets have one of the best shooters in NBA history in Peja Stojakovic. But as noted above, Stojakovic posted post-rookie season lows this year in shooting percentage and scoring due to an assortment of injuries. In 44 minutes of playing time in a must win-game against the Spurs on Wednesday night, Stojakovic made two-of-eight shot attempts. And he's an atrocious defender to boot.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets have the NBA's third best small forward in Carmelo Anthony (behind only LeBron James and Paul Pierce) who - in theory - should be desperate to get out of the playoffs' first round and prove his many naysayers wrong. In 21 games since being suspended by the Nuggets for insubordination on March 3rd, Anthony has averaged 25.4 ppg - including a 29 point and 43 point outburst against the Hornets and Mavericks, respectively - all while leading the Nuggets to a 15-6 record to finish the season.
ADVANTAGE: NUGGETS
POWER FORWARD
One of the few categories where the Nuggets come up short against the Hornets is at the four spot, thanks to two-time All-Star David West anchoring the position for New Orleans. But the Nuggets Kenyon Martin is no slouch, especially after getting himself in the best shape of his career since undergoing microfracture surgery on both knees. Unfortunately, K-Mart didn't undergo much needed mid-range jump shot surgery during his recovery period.
A consistent mid-range jump shot isn't West's problem, however. In fact, of all the power forwards in the NBA, West possesses one of the finer shooting touches and has to be defended far from the basket.
ADVANTAGE: HORNETS
CENTERAs noted above under "Health", Hornets center Tyson Chandler is not his 2007-08 self (who incidentally played a large role in my fantasy basketball team finishing in second place, regrettably my highest finish ever). Instead, whether it's due to injuries or a bruised ego from almost being traded, Chandler has reverted into the player he was in Chicago before New Orleans acquired him.
The Nuggets, on the other hand, have benefited greatly from Nene's finest season of his career. For the first time since Calvin Natt anchored the Nuggets power forward spot, the Nuggets have a legitimate low-post scoring threat who's also a true shut down defender. Nene's only downside compared with Chandler is his height. I've always said that Nene is generously listed at 6'11" (he's more like 6'9") and he seems to struggle a bit against the taller centers in the league. But given Chandler's recent bout with injuries, Nene should be able to muscle him around.
ADVANTAGE: NUGGETS
BENCHLet's be frank: the Hornets don't have any depth. Even former Denver Stiff Ryan Bowen maintains a roster spot. The Hornets basically have a six-man rotation, with another former Nugget in James Posey being the only impact player off the bench. Their low-end bench players have serious playoff experience, however, with Devin Brown (yet another former Nugget for all of three games), Antonio Daniels and of course Posey having won NBA Finals rings. But Brown and Daniels rarely crack 10 minutes of playing time and are non-factors. The rest of the Hornets' bench features a stiff backup center in Hilton Armstrong, the only New Zealander to play in the NBA, Sean Marks, and Morris Peterson.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets - with Chris "Birdman" Andersen, Sixth Man and Most Improved candidate J.R. Smith, Anthony Carter, Renaldo Balkman and Linas Kleiza - have their best bench since the 1993-94 squad that brought Robert Pack, Brian "Bison Dele" Williams, Rodney Rogers and Tom Hammonds off the pine. And of course that was the last Nuggets team to win a playoff series.
Smith is basically a starter in terms of minutes played, as is Posey who remains one of the NBA's most clutch performers (remember his big, go-ahead three-pointer at Pepsi Center on Thanksgiving Night to sink the Nuggets?). But even if Smith/Posey cancel each other out, the rest of the Nuggets bench is far superior to anything the Hornets have to offer. Maybe the Hornets should have brought back the Birdman instead of allowing the Nuggets to poach him for nothing.
ADVANTAGE: NUGGETS
COACH
In nine seasons as an NBA head coach, Byron Scott has coached in two NBA Finals and has never lost a first round playoff series. But he's also missed the postseason four times. In 21 seasons as an NBA head coach, George Karl has coached in only one NBA Finals, has lost in the first round 10 times but has missed the postseason (remarkably) only three times. The only number Nuggets fans care about, though, is 3-16: Karl's playoff coaching record with Denver. And Karl himself has admitted that a playoff series win will be the ultimate measure of his success this season.
Scott was able to overcome a litany of injuries, a weak bench and a possible Chandler trade to guide the Hornets to a very respectable 49 wins in the brutal Southwest Division. Karl led the Nuggets to their NBA franchise tying best 54 wins in a season that many expected them to miss the playoffs altogether. Both coaches have done a fine job this season.
ADVANTAGE: EVEN
MASCOTDuring Game 1 of the Hornets/Spurs series last year, (the alternate version of) Hugo the Hornet dunked a basketball through a ring of fire after the first quarter. Because the fire wasn't extinguished properly, there was a 19-minute delay in the game. Just a few months later the Nuggets mascot, Rocky - who doesn't need a stunt double to dunk - was inducted into the Mascot Hall of Fame. Enough said.
ADVANTAGE: NUGGETS
THE VERDICT
The Nuggets should win this series in five games, but probably won't. A lot of pundits will predict the Nuggets in six, but I don't see the Nuggets winning a Game 6 on the road. I see this series ending in five or seven, with seven being more likely.
GO NUGGETS!!
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Chris Paul has me worried in terms of playing time. A few times this season when playing against top guards, I think Karl will extend the minutes of Jones and Carter and reduce J.R.'s minutes. I hope he doesn't do that because having Jones or Carter puts them in such a hole on the offensive end.
Also, not sure I agree on the coaching evaluations. I am not familiar with the Hornets coach, but the numbers Andrew put up - two finals appearances in 5 playoff seasons and no first round losses sounds pretty good compared to Karl's record. Sounds like the Hornets might have an advantage here.
All and all, I'm pretty excited for these playoffs. If the matchup was Dallas, I would be very confident. With Charlotte, I'm optimistic of a win, but nervous, especially if they get to a game 7. The good news if the game comes down to a final shot, Melo seems to be back to his clutch play that he had early in his career. Last play with the ball in his hands is a good place to be.
by KarlSucks on Apr 17, 2009 11:55 AM MDT reply actions
I think K-Mart makes the West comparo a push. K-Mart can lock him up.
As mentioned Andy, the Melo "fire" or possible lack thereof is going to be the pivotal aspect of this series... oh and no more stink bombs out of Birdman, Jones and Kleiza, as in the one they laid against Portland... or at least ALL of them can't suck at the same time or we're in trouble.
by Eric K on Apr 17, 2009 11:55 AM MDT reply actions
by Goldennugget on Apr 17, 2009 12:49 PM MDT reply actions
by Goldennugget on Apr 17, 2009 12:56 PM MDT reply actions
Just read an Ian Thomsen's playoff preview over on si.com. He quotes Karl several times. Interesting what Karl says about 3-point shooting.
by JTR on Apr 17, 2009 1:42 PM MDT reply actions
It's Nate from Pickaxe and Roll ... I like how you have Nuggets in 5 or in 7, but go out on a limb man. Pick one or the other! haha.
I took Denver to surprise folks and win on the road in six. Didn't have the balls to take Denver in five ...
by Nate Timmons on Apr 17, 2009 2:05 PM MDT reply actions
by Denverson on Apr 17, 2009 2:17 PM MDT reply actions
Better watch out with the gimp reference or that guy from last week will get offended!
I have a permanent limp of my own, so I can use the word, but you non-gimps have to be careful.
by KarlSucks on Apr 17, 2009 3:27 PM MDT reply actions
I'm thinking of taking a
"NO RESPECT"
to game 1. Because all the idiots on espn picked the hornets in 6. I think that this team needs to play physical and put cp3 on his ass early in each game. If they force him to make his teamates beat our nugs, we will win.
by JASON on Apr 17, 2009 3:28 PM MDT reply actions
Would like to add a couple things. One, the corner 3 ball, as astutely pointed out by Bucher on ESPN.com, is going to be a key to this series. If we give them that shot too much they will beat us with it.
To continue with the Kleiza discussion, against NO he won't be a difference maker either way. Where he will kill us is against teams like LA, long teams that will force him to shoot fast or drive and then make bad decisions. We don't need Balkman to beat NO but we will need him to beat the teams in the next round. The big problem is that Karl has obviously commmitted to Kleiza. I can only hope that changes.
Finally I hope someone on the Nugs coaching staff challenges JR to limit Paul. He has the tools to do it and if he chooses to make Paul's life hell we could win in 5. With JR focused on defense, not on shooting 3's, his offense will flow and provide exactly what we need. Again, I can only hope.
by NugzD on Apr 17, 2009 3:58 PM MDT reply actions
by NugzD on Apr 17, 2009 4:06 PM MDT reply actions
Go Nuggs!
by Dave on Apr 17, 2009 4:56 PM MDT reply actions
by Goldennugget on Apr 17, 2009 8:06 PM MDT reply actions
I could not agree more with everything stated so far but would like to add that I think where we have really struggled in previous post seasons is in our assist to turnover ratios. I look forward to seeing Chauncy Billips reverse that trend.
1. EVERY
2. POSSESSION
3. COUNTS
by My3Cents on Apr 17, 2009 8:33 PM MDT reply actions
Oh, and Nuggets in 5, or they lose the first round. I'm just not convinced that Karl can maintain control, consistently put out effective lineups, and be able to adjust during a seven game series. It will either be a fairly easy first round victory, or a complete meltdown.
*Not a real word, but kudos if you know what it means.
by Cessair on Apr 17, 2009 9:20 PM MDT reply actions
by Eric K on Apr 17, 2009 10:57 PM MDT reply actions
by Anonymous on Apr 18, 2009 12:11 AM MDT reply actions
by Anonymous on Apr 18, 2009 12:12 AM MDT reply actions
by SamIam on Apr 18, 2009 2:15 AM MDT reply actions
Word verification of the day: baughtxi
by KarlSucks on Apr 18, 2009 9:23 AM MDT reply actions
I think the Nuggets as Andrew mentioned have more firepower and match up advantages especially because of injuries. I am glad we have the Hornet opposed to Utah. I would rather have Dallas over Hornets. I think we have a very nice bracket set up. Lakers have some of the tough teams, but they are good so they can handle it. If we make it we'll probably have to beat the aging and shorthanded Spurs, then at last the Lakers and Cavs. If we are going to advance as a franchise we are going to have to overcome our obstacles.
Thanks for the read and analysis as well as fellow readers input.
I think Karl is one stubborn coach and if he were he would implement some of the things we fans mentioned. I personally don't think Balkman is getting many minutes and I see Karl getting stuck with the Jones and Carter rotation.
For his sake, the teams sake and our sake I hop be is more intuitive about strategy and preparation for the playoffs. I mean other teams can plan for the current weakness of rotation they expect him to put in, if he can surprise them with change then can get them off guard. That would be genius for Karl, but for us it is common sense.
CB
by Anonymous on Apr 18, 2009 10:50 AM MDT reply actions
by Goldennugget on Apr 18, 2009 12:36 PM MDT reply actions
Why don't the Nuggets ever get respect? I just saw a commercial that touted CP3 and the Hornets vs. the number 2 Nuggets, and the focus was definitely on CP3 (who I can't stand, btw). No mention of Melo, Chauncey, or anybody. I guess I can spin this in a positive light and say that they meant the Nuggets area complete team, but I know I'm just kidding myself.
On another note, my wife works at the Cherry Creek Mall, and often sees numerous Nuggets hanging around. Heck, even I saw JR Smith there last week, and was just stopping by. But yesterday she saw both Birdman and AC hanging out.
That's right: yesterday. Um, shouldn't they be preparing for the playoffs or something?
???
by Do We Have Any Plays? on Apr 18, 2009 1:02 PM MDT reply actions
Thanks for calling them out. That does piss me off. This isn't NCAA Football.
And hopefully it pisses off our players to the point where they carry that chip on their shoulders all the way to the Conference Finals.
Can't wait to see CPO, uh CP3, walking off to enjoy an early Spring vacation.
by My3Cents on Apr 18, 2009 1:14 PM MDT reply actions















