Rolando Blackman, Mark Aguirre and Derek Harper aren't walking through that door (Nuggets/Mavericks Playoff Preview)...
I probably should have titled this post "When Two Hot Teams Collide" because that's exactly what's happening on Sunday when the Mavericks face off against our Nuggets at 1:30. But before we look forward, I have to spend a quick moment looking back (this site is, after all, Denver "Stiffs", remember?).The last time the Nuggets won 54 games, captured a division title and won a first round series in a fifth game on their home floor was 1988. And fittingly, the Nuggets faced off in the following round against the Dallas Mavericks that year, just as they will this Sunday.
But even though this year's Mavericks have been impressive as of late, they couldn't hold a candle to the 1987-88 version. That team was deep and talented with Rolando Blackman (a four-time All-Star) and Derek Harper in the backcourt, Mark Aguirre (a three-time All-Star) and Sam Perkins at forward and James Donaldson (a one-time All-Star) anchoring the middle. Off the bench, those Mavericks featured Detlef Schrempf (also a three-time All-Star), Brad Davis and Roy Tarpley (who could have been an All-Star had he not ironed his girlfriend's stomach and gotten into drugs). In the NBA's second round that year, those Mavericks spoiled the Nuggets Cinderella season by turning a 2-1 Nuggets lead into a 4-2 series rout, including a 21 and a 13-point beat down in the Mavericks final two home games. To be fair, the Nuggets were besieged by injuries to Fat Lever and Jay Vincent, but those Mavericks meant business. They had only won one less game than the Nuggets that season and ended up taking the Lakers to seven games in the conference finals.
(On a side note, the last time I saw Blackman in Denver was during the 2005 All-Star Game. We were both waiting in line inside the bathroom in the main concourse area when a couple of guys - and this is no joke - dragged a garbage bin into the bathroom and used the lid to break out a shell game. They were immediately surrounded by 30 or so others, cash in hand, ready to partake in this gambling endeavor. In an instant, that Pepsi Center bathroom might as well had been a back alley in Brooklyn or Queens. Being right next to each other, Blackman and I glanced at each other, mutually rolled our eyes and walked out.)
Fortunately for the 2008-09 Nuggets Blackman, Aguirre, Harper and the rest of those Mavericks are long gone (although I think just about all of them except Tarpley became assistant coaches at some point during the Mark Cuban "Hire-Every-Ex-Maverick-as-an-Assistant-Coach" Era) and in their place we get to face off against Jason Terry, Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd and Josh Howard. You know, the Mavericks that the Nuggets beat all four times this season...albeit in four closely contested games.
So with both teams coming off impressive 4-1 first round victories, how do they stack up against each other?
MOMENTUM
After looking like they were going to cede the eighth and final playoff spot to the Suns as late in the season as early March, the Mavericks got their act together and reeled off seven wins in their last nine regular season games before easily dismantling the Spurs in five. But before that late run, they were basically playing .500 ball in March. The Nuggets, meanwhile, lost only seven games in March (one of which was a meaningless game at Portland), had a five and an eight game winning streak and didn't just dismantle their playoff opponent - the Hornets - in five, but may have destroyed their franchise for years to come.
ADVANTAGE: NUGGETS
POINT GUARDThe Nuggets have Chauncey Billups playing his best basketball since 2005. The Mavericks have the poor man's Fat Lever - Jason Kidd - playing his best basketball since joining the Mavs in a controversial trade for Devin Harris late last season. But for all that each of these exceptional point guards have done in their careers, only one owns an NBA Finals MVP Award.
ADVANTAGE: NUGGETS
SHOOTING GUARD
The Mavericks start all six feet of Jose Juan Barea while the Nuggets bring Dahntay Jones' relentless defensive intensity to the table at the two-spot. Say what you want about Barea, but he torched the Nuggets for 22 points, including five three-pointers, in the two teams' March 27th matchup which the Nuggets barely won. It was as if the Nuggets couldn't find the little Barea all night.
But let's be frank, the shooting guard matchup isn't about Barea vs. Jones but rather Sixth Man Award Winner Jason Terry vs. Sixth Man Award Runner-Up J.R. Smith, each of whom consume the bulk of the minutes at this position. As much as we love J.R., he's not quite on Terry's level. Terry has been hitting big time shots in big time games for a while now, and has NBA Finals experience. Until J.R. proves otherwise, the edge goes to Terry.
ADVANTAGE: MAVERICKS
SMALL FORWARDMuch has been made about two of the Nuggets four regular season victories over Dallas not including the Mavericks' (former All-Star) small forward Josh Howard. Am I missing something here? Isn't this the same Howard who took nights off this season against bad teams and yet didn't have a problem playing mildly hurt against good teams? The same Howard who dissed the national anthem in the off-season? The same Howard who threw himself a late night birthday party in the middle of a playoff series last year?
Carmelo Anthony is playing the best basketball of his career right now, including a 43-point, 11-rebound, game-winning basket outburst against the Mavericks on March 27th. Howard has admittedly played much better in the post-season than he has all season long, but he still isn't anywhere near Melo's league.
ADVANTAGE: NUGGETS
POWER FORWARDThe advantage of sitting closer to the floor than I ever have at Nuggets games for these playoffs is that I have a whole new appreciation for Kenyon Martin's defensive ability when he's focused. K-Mart held the Hornets' David West (an "All-Star") to 40% field goal shooting in one of the best singular defensive performances we've ever seen in a Nuggets' uniform.
Unfortunately for K-Mart, the Mavericks' Dirk Nowitzki is no David West and this isn't his first rodeo. Nowitzki's - justifiably or not - has been criticized for being an unworthy MVP and then playing cowardly against the 8th-seeded Warriors two years ago, choking away a sure-fire NBA Finals victory in 2006 after being up 2-0 and leading by a wide margin in Game 3, and having a low "clutch shooting percentage" as of late (40.6% compared to Melo's exceptional 56.5% this season). But Nowitzki won that MVP for a reason and remains the best shooting power forward in the NBA. Check out this stat: from February 27th until the playoffs began, Nowitzki never scored less than 20 points in a single game. That was 25 straight 20+ point games.
K-Mart is a fabulous defender, but great offense typically trumps great defense.
ADVANTAGE: MAVERICKS
CENTER
The Nuggets starting center Nene appeared in three of the Nuggets' four games against the Mavericks in the regular season and had a respectable outing each time. The Mavericks center Erick Dampier never scored more than six points in a single game against the Nuggets this season, and put forth a paltry five-point, five-rebound effort in the one game that Nene missed due to league suspension. Dampier continues to underachieve for the Mavericks and his $13 million contract due in two seasons from now makes K-Mart's contract look reasonable.
ADVANTAGE: NUGGETS
BENCHEven though Terry gets the edge over Smith at the sixth man spot, the rest of the bench isn't even close. Beyond Terry, the Mavericks only have Antoine Wright and Brandon Bass to turn to, whereas the Nuggets have Chris "Birdman" Andersen, Anthony Carter, Linas Kleiza and Renaldo Balkman if need be. In other words, the Mavericks don't even have a legitimate backup center to contend with Birdman, and yet Birdman is better than Dampier.
ADVANTAGE: NUGGETS
COACH
I'm a Rick Carlisle fan. He has been reasonably successful everywhere he has coached and weathered a slew of injuries and a thin roster to guide the Mavericks to a respectable sixth-seed when just weeks earlier they seemed destined for the West's ninth spot. Carlisle also does a lot of things that the Nuggets coach George Karl doesn't - notably calling timeouts to block opposing teams' runs before they get out of hand.
But it's hard to argue with the Madness of King George's results this season, especially after that exceptional ass-whipping over the Hornets. And while Carlisle has done a fine job in his first go-around with the Mavericks, I believe Karl knows his own players much better than Carlisle knows his.
ADVANTAGE: NUGGETS
MASCOTI'm an NBA degenerate. So much so, that I could probably name two-thirds of the league's mascots if I had to. And yet until writing this piece, I had no clue who the Mavericks mascot was. After doing some research, the Mavericks' mascot is apparently named "Champ" and he purports to be a horse. The only problem is he looks nothing like a horse but rather a creepy blue dragon with a smirk on its face as if a registered sex offender is wearing that god awful costume.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets' "Super Mascot" Rocky has been making his behind-the-back half court shot with more and more consistency lately and his scoreboard video where he dates a Hornets fan was one of his best yet. This matchup isn't even close.
ADVANTAGE: NUGGETS
OWNERYou can't discuss the Mavericks without mentioning their owner, Mark Cuban. Longtime readers of this blog know I'm strongly in the pro-Cuban camp. I think he's great for the game and generally behaves with the same passion and enthusiasm that I would if I owned an NBA team. I've also had the opportunity to chat with Cuban for a few minutes in person (we'll see if he's amenable to a stop-and-chat on Sunday) and he kindly replies to one out of every five or so emails that I send him, including when he applauded my idea to re-format the NBA Playoffs last season (I was just trying to get the Nuggets into the playoffs and was willing to revamp the entire process to do so). That being said, I understand why Nuggets fans can't stand Cuban, especially after the J.R. Smith incident this season.
The Nuggets owner Stanley Kroenke, on the other hand, may be equally passionate (and has spent the money to prove it) but certainly doesn't show it. While Cuban hoots, hollers and barks throughout each game, Kroenke calmly observes each game from the end of the Nuggets bench in the first half and then moves up to his private box for the second half.
As an NBA fan, you want an owner like Cuban or Kroenke: insanely rich, passionate about basketball, attuned to the fans and willing to spend - even if it means a financial loss - in order to win. Kroenke has been more frugal lately (and Cuban has gone on record saying he will be in the future), but I have a long memory and remember the Peter Bynoe/Bertram Lee days followed by the disastrous Robert Wussler/Comsat era of Nuggets ownership. I'll gladly take a Cuban or a Kroenke running my franchise any day of the week.
ADVANTAGE: EVEN
THE VERDICT
I admit I wussed out before the Hornets series by predicting that the Nuggets would win in either five or seven games. The Mavericks are undoubtedly better than the Hornets, but they're not better than the Nuggets. Plug Jason Terry into the shooting guard slot for Dallas and J.R. Smith into the same slot for Denver, and you'd still give the Nuggets an edge with their starting five while the bench matchup isn't even close. The Mavericks will have the same fundamental problem in this series that the Hornets had with the Nuggets: not enough firepower at all positions.
Denver Stiffs sees the Nuggets taking this one in five games, with the Mavericks winning Game 3 at Dallas.
GO NUGGETS!!
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I'm rather surprised you didn't bring up the veteran leadership by pg's Andrew. Both will calm their teams down, coach on the floor and give hard fouls when they should. Billups' shooting will trump whatever Kidd does though.
There has been some mention of starting JR so Dahntay can defend Terry. No way, we have just gotten our chemistry to a good point and everyone understands and accepts their roles. On top of that Kenyon and Dahntay feed off each other. Start the game with a fantastic defensive effort and everything else will fall into place. Also a defensive challenge for JR will give him a chance to show how far he has progressed.
As always informed, researched and appreciated. Thanks for all the hard work Andrew.
by NugzD on May 1, 2009 8:36 AM MDT reply actions
One thing I'm pretty sure of though, is that if things go according to plan, then Ronaldo Balkman will be see just about the same amount of playing time as Rolando Blackman.
I also wouldn't call the owner match-up even. That is unless Kroenke plans on criticizing the refs to the point where they have a vendetta against the Nuggets.
Can't wait 'til Sunday.
by E on May 1, 2009 9:33 AM MDT reply actions
Big thing is going to be K-Mart against Dirk.
I'm calling Nuggs in 6
by Eric K on May 1, 2009 9:34 AM MDT reply actions
by Anonymous on May 1, 2009 9:43 AM MDT reply actions
Speaking of their bench, I think we'll need to throw quite a few different looks at Terry. Honestly, I'd like to see JR step up defensively and guard Terry some too. I want him nice and warmed up to help guard Kobe in the WCFs.
by Bee on May 1, 2009 9:54 AM MDT reply actions
by Bye-verson on May 1, 2009 10:02 AM MDT reply actions
I predict sweep.
by grantarchy on May 1, 2009 10:15 AM MDT reply actions
1. I think we're going to see a lot of AC in this series. I do believe Dahntay (sp- why mom?) will start, but I think we're going to see AC on JJ and some on JT as well. GK loves AC as a defender and believes he has better defensive quickness than JR. So I will not be surprised to see an increase in AC's minutes. God bless us one and all.
2. I exepect to see Bass on Melo when Dallas needs a few stops. He has the size and strength to body Melo up. Josh Howard does not. So as was the case with NO, Melo has to:
a. Defend and Rebound
b. Take it to the Rack
c. Pass quickly out of the Double
3. Again, as with NO, Nene has to face up against Dampier and use his quickness. There is no way Dampier stays in front of Nene if he faces up. Just. No. Way.
This is going to be some great basketball. And as long as the Nuggets continue to play DEFENSE FIRST, TEAM BASKETBALL we will come out ahead.
Let's Rumble!!!!
by My3Cents on May 1, 2009 10:17 AM MDT reply actions
I see the 6th man matchup being a wash, I would expect Terry and JR to each win a game respectively (probably games 2 and 3). However, Terry has the edge there because he won't shoot the Mavs out of a game if he isn't feeling it. The Billups-Kidd match up should be great, which is a disadvantage for the Nuggets - the Mavs defense is predicated on Kidd getting torched by quicker PGs, and Billups doesn't have that advantage this series. I expect Billups to win the duel, but its close enough to be a wash in the big picture. The Nuggets have to get great production off the bench aside from JR and make sure that players like Barea and Bass aren't productive on the offensive end. The Mavs torched the Spurs because their role players stepped up. Dirk (aside from game 5) and Terry didn't have great series' but the Mavs role players won games for them.
I think the series comes down to Dirk v. Melo and I think that the Nuggets advantage there is enormous, not be because Melo is much better than Dirk (he's not) but because the Nuggets have far more solutions to guarding DIrk than the Mavs do Melo. KMart will get most of the time, but don't be surprised to see Birdman, Balkman, Dahntay and perhaps even Melo occasionally trying to harass Dirk and be physical with him. On the other end, the Mavs will have Josh Howard on Melo most of the time, but he isn't strong enough to handle him. The best solutions for the Mavs on D are James Singleton and Antoine Wright, and the more minutes they have to be on the floor the better since they offer NOTHING at the offensive end. Bass and Dirk can't guard Melo at all. Look for Melo to be able to get inside at will with his strength and athleticism and for his play to be the difference in the series. Nuggets in 7, 4 wins in the Pepsi Center. Although hopefully they can steal either game 4 or game 6 in Dallas.
Also, can someone please send Karl video of Stephen Jackson and Don Nelson harrassing Dirk into terrible performances against Golden State for the last 3 years (17 total games I think)? There is a scouting report in there somewhere....
Go Nuggets
by Eric B on May 1, 2009 10:45 AM MDT reply actions
by D.H. on May 1, 2009 10:56 AM MDT reply actions
by coballer on May 1, 2009 11:23 AM MDT reply actions
http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/vince_thomas/04/30/denver.20090430/
by Bee on May 1, 2009 11:35 AM MDT reply actions
by JJM on May 1, 2009 11:50 AM MDT reply actions
by Anonymous on May 1, 2009 12:08 PM MDT reply actions
by coballer on May 1, 2009 2:10 PM MDT reply actions
Good read, I can't disagree with much though there are a few things I can. First off, the owner matchup, imo, has to go to Cuban. That guy is a nut, but no owner in all of sports comes even close to sharing the type of passion and commitment to winning for their team than Cuban does. The guy will do anything to win, and that includes losing tons of money, which is a true sign of a great owner. He even has said he would take on all the ridiculously terrible contracts of Peja Stojakovic and Tyson Chandler (and maybe some more people for all I know) just to get Chris Paul. That is an owner I would like to have!
The other thing I found hard to agree with was the coaching advantage. If you awarded the advantage based on cough drops inhaled in one game, then yeah, Karl takes that one hands down, but if not then I don't get how Karl took this one in your eyes. I understand where you are coming from with coach Karl knowing his players better, but does that fact alone result in him having the advantage entirely? I don't think so. As much as Karl may have some advantages he has just as many disadvantages, if not more. He's bad at calling timeouts, he isn't' a great motivational speaker, he doesn't run plays, he has bad rotations and plays people he shouldn't more than the people he should and worst of all he relies on his PG to coach the team more than he does himself. Of course, we all already knew this. I am just saying I don't think there is an advantage that Karl has over Carlisle in any way other than what you mentioned about him knowing his players better.
Overall I see this as a potential great sereis whith the Nuggets winning in 6. I think the PG matchup is giong to win this series for us as Kidd has no chance whatsoever of competing with Chauncy. I expect K-Mart to have a great series as well guarding Dirk. I do agree with someone above who mentioned that AC will get a lot of time against Barea, which is not a good thing. I'm looking forward to this, as well as the Lakers vs Houston series. I hate Kobe and I love Artest's craziness so that is going to be fun. Go Nugs!
by Goldennugget on May 1, 2009 4:22 PM MDT reply actions
by LB47 on May 1, 2009 5:40 PM MDT reply actions
by JJM on May 1, 2009 10:35 PM MDT reply actions
by Anonymous on May 1, 2009 10:45 PM MDT reply actions
--
Nail. Head.
*BOOM*
by Do We Have Any Plays? on May 2, 2009 11:23 PM MDT reply actions
"Well, that's a great compliment," Kidd said. "But when you look at Billups' resume, he has a championship, he was the MVP, he's been a winner wherever he's gone. He's come to Denver in the trade and changed the atmosphere here with some talented guys, so they're probably watching him more than they're watching me.
"For each of us, I think our careers have gotten better, but he has the trophy that I want."
by Anonymous on May 3, 2009 9:04 AM MDT reply actions
by Anonymous on May 3, 2009 12:46 PM MDT reply actions


















