MVP forecast: What about Chauncey?...

by Andrew Feinstein on Apr 10, 2009 3:47 PM MDT

Before you read on too much, let me be the first to say that it's completely preposterous that Chauncey Billups might win the NBA's 2008-09 MVP Award. But don't blame me for bringing it up. Blame the NBA's cockamamie system of having 126 sports writers vote on five different players in order from most to least deserving.

So, given that the NBA allows you to vote for five players, does Billups crack the top five?

Why Chauncey Billups for MVP?

There're two sets of figures that clearly spell out why Billups deserves consideration: 52-24 and 34-40. That's the Nuggets record with Billups since being acquired for Allen Iverson, and the Detroit Pistons record without him. And even though it was early in the season, the Nuggets were 1-3 before Billups joined the team and the Pistons started 2-0 with him (although to be fair, those two victories were against Indiana and Washington).

Upon arrival for his second go-around with his hometown team, Billups immediately became the team's leader - something the Nuggets haven't really had in the Carmelo Anthony Era. While I love what Melo has brought to the organization since being drafted by the Nuggets, he's yet to demonstrate that he's the de facto alpha dog whom everyone falls in-line behind, as LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Brandon Roy, Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Tim Duncan have done with their respective teams.

Under Billups' leadership - taking orders from Nuggets coach George Karl to emphasize defense and "good shots" this season - the Nuggets have become a remarkably better defensive team while possessing a more potent and yet controlled offense. I also believe that Billups deserves a large share of the credit for the Nuggets numerous second half double-digit comebacks and the team's astounding closing ability this season (I can't find the exact number, but I think the Nuggets have only lost a game or two all season when leading going into the fourth quarter). Billups brings a commanding and calming presence onto the floor with him.

Furthermore, Billups has enabled Carmelo Anthony, Nene and J.R. Smith's offensive games to grow, as he routinely feeds them in the spots they're most comfortable with on the floor. Billups himself said on ESPN's "Pardon the Interruption" earlier in the season that had the Pistons drafted Melo, they would have won three or four NBA Championships. I'm just hoping they get to one together before Billups gets too old.

The Verdict

Looking at things from a macro-perspective, as great as the Billups acquisition was the Nuggets will end up winning only four or five more games than last season. Compare that to the Cleveland Cavaliers - thanks to the acquisition of Mo Williams and a vastly improved LeBron James - likely winning 20 more games than last season, the Miami Heat - thanks to the rebirth of Dwyane Wade's career - likely winning 28 more games, the Los Angeles Lakers - thanks to another MVP-calibre season from Kobe Bryant - likely winning nine more games and the Orlando Magic - thanks to Dwight Howard's continued dominance - likely winning eight more games than the season before.

Moreover, you take Billups off the Nuggets and they're still competing for a playoff spot - albeit not a top seed - with Melo, J.R. and Nene just now reaching their potential. Lest we forget that Carmelo Anthony had led the Nuggets to five straight playoff appearances before Billups even showed up.

So if Billups isn't the MVP, who is?

Denver Stiffs pick is unequivocally LeBron James, with Kobe Bryant being the only other player deserving serious consideration. Why not Dwyane Wade, you ask? As astounding as Wade's numbers (29.9 ppg, 7.5 apg, 5.0 rpg, 2.3 spg and 1.4 bpg) and the Heat's turnaround are, at the end of the day they're a middle-of-the-pack, 43ish-win Eastern Conference team with no chance to win a championship. And from the four seed on down, the East is still a Junior Varsity conference. I liken Wade's 2008-09 season to Bryant's 2005-06 campaign when he put up 35.4 ppg, 4.5 apg, 5.3 rpg and 1.8 spg while leading a garbage Lakers team (former Nuggets training camp invitee Smush Parker was the starting point guard) to 45 wins near the peak of the Western Conference's dominance. And yet Bryant finished fourth in MVP voting behind winner Steve Nash, LeBron James and Dirk Nowitzki and ahead of, guess who, Chauncey Billups.

In summary, here's how Denver Stiffs would vote for the 2008-09 MVP if given the opportunity to do so...

1. LeBron James
2. Kobe Bryant
3. Dwyane Wade
4. Dwight Howard
5. Chauncey Billups

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Comments

The Nuggets' marginal improvement and the Pistons' monumental decline this season probably had more to do with Iverson than with Billups. Not to defame Chauncey though. As George Karl put it, he's a "rock of winning."

by Ben on Apr 10, 2009 8:47 PM MDT reply actions

If it weren't for losing focus and sliding at the beginning of March I think we'd be flirting with a close-to-60-win season.

C'est la vie.

I like Chauncey, but compared to point guards from a few years back I often find myself scratching my head at his shot selection and overall decision making. And once in a while he'll make an exciting pass, but never anything to really get the crowd going.

I think that once we get some, um, oh, what are they called? Oh yeah: Plays. Yeah, once we get some plays together he will be that much more effective, and the whole team will begin to shine.

Ok, Nuggets, repeat after me: Give. Go. Give. Go.

See, it's not that hard, is it?

We're still at least one man down from contending. I say dump Kleiza and bring in somebody who can score, preferably a post player who can play with his back to the basket. Then that guy will get my vote for MVP.

In the meantime, I say Chauncey for Coach Of The Year.

by Do We Have Any Plays? on Apr 10, 2009 9:12 PM MDT reply actions

I would put Dwight at 3 and D-Wade at 4. The Heat are getting a lot of buzz about this "turnaround" from last season seems to forget that they tanked it. Pat Riley left to protect his coaching record, and D-Wade shut it down to (understandably) rehab his shoulder. They pick up a solid player in Beasley via the draft (and thanks in part to tanking the season). Wade's numbers are great, I just don't think he's a top-3 candidate for MVP.

by E on Apr 10, 2009 11:58 PM MDT reply actions

There's no real way to quantify it but the stat I wish we could use a crystal ball to find out is what the pace of wins we'd have been on without making the Chauncey trade.

Might we have only been on pace for 40 wins? And thus if you're going to look at +/- in wins, like "Do we have any plays?" stated, our W/L record would be both drastically different if A) Chauncey was here from the start, and B) if we NEVER got Chauncey in the first place.

I think you have to tack on a few more W's in the pre-Chaunc games this season if he were on the court instead of AI and I think you have to pull a lot of the W's off the board if AI were here today.

That's another value equation, albeit one that can't totally be quantized, and never will.

by Eric K on Apr 11, 2009 10:30 AM MDT reply actions

Chauncey as been invaluable to this team. We are fortunate to have him other players on this roster.

It now comes down to being healthy, play, motivation (believing in yourself)and leadership. Good general-ship.

I just hate the fact that there is always a weak link on the court. It seems to Carter is that weak link, this season LK is and Petro because he is still new.

We need more have Smith and Balkman, they are stronger links. But can be weaker at times because of consistency in play. Balkman just doesn't really get the chance no matter how much he proves himself. I just don't understand why the staff doesn't get it.

I mean when we win games...we fans are happy. When we lose we are all over them, and it usually comes down to this weak link strong link in rotation and players.

Let hope they can finish the last two games...This Portland game is going to be the test of the season. I don't think Houston will lose...the nuggets are going to have to earn this one on the road.

CB

by Anonymous on Apr 11, 2009 12:53 PM MDT reply actions

Yeah, now way Chauncy even has a chance at the MVP award but he is still as valuable to our team as Lebron, Wade or Kobe is to theirs. Lebron already has the MVP wrapped up though, and I think Mike Brown should win COY with a 20 game improvement.

I can't believe that the Blazers beat the Lakers last night too. Damnit!!! It is going to be crucial to win these next 2 games as the first one will secure the Division and the next the 2 seed which pretty much guarantees the easiest way to the WCFs if we make it that far because we won't have to go through the Lakers.

by Goldennugget on Apr 11, 2009 6:17 PM MDT reply actions

alirght Eric K, not trying to be a dick, but it just bugs me too much. quantized...no, I think you were looking for quantified, quantized is about restricting continuous sets of variables

by Zachm219 on Apr 12, 2009 12:35 PM MDT reply actions

F All those numbers Drew, CHAUNCEY FOR MVP!!!!!!!!!!!

by joelsopinion on Apr 13, 2009 2:55 PM MDT reply actions

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STIFF LIST (as of 4/26 by Andrew Feinstein)

1. METTA WORLD PEACE

Metta resorted back to Ron Ron last Sunday by clubbing James Hardenwith an "inadvertent celebratory elbow", landing him a 7-game suspension. Apparently, changing his name didn't prevent NBA commissioner David Stern from overlooking Metta's past behavior problems.

2. CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

The 'Cats are on the verge of securing the worst winning percentage in NBA history. Given that the guy who runs the team - Michael Jordan - had previously drafted Kwame Brown and Adam Morrison, should this really be a shock?

3. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
The team that was supposedly built to overcome the lockout-shortened season managed to lose 7 of its last 14 games, ceding the Western Conference's 1-seed to the Spurs in the process. Their reward might be a first round matchup with defending champion Dallas.

4. BILLY HUNTER AND DEREK FISHER

With report after report coming out about NBPA union head Hunter's shady, nepotistic dealings and questions arising about Fisher's own role in dealing with NBA owners behind Hunter's back during the lockout, this off-the-court scandal could prove to be more exciting than the playoffs themselves!

5. STEVE NASH AND THE PHOENIX SUNS
The Suns are on this list for squandering the last few great seasons from Nash. Nash is on this list for his stupidly stubborn loyalty to a franchise as awful as the Suns.