Nuggetsadamus returns to predict the remainder of the season...

by Andrew Feinstein on Mar 17, 2009 12:06 PM MDT

Around this time last season, Nuggetsadamus helped me when I predicted that the Nuggets would finish with 51 wins and finish eighth in the Western Conference. The Nuggets ended up finishing eighth alright, but with 50 wins instead of 51.

Looking at the standings this morning, I noticed that the Nuggets are just two games back from the Spurs, a half game back of the Rockets (which is really like a game-and-a-half back since the Rockets own the tiebreaker with the Nuggets), a half game ahead of the Blazers, a full game ahead of the Hornets and a game-and-a-half ahead of the Jazz. So I decided to ask Nuggetsadamus to make his end-of-season predictions again, but this time forecast for all the teams the Nuggets will be jockeying with for playoff positioning. Here's what he told me...

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets will win their next two games against the pathetic Grizzlies and even more pathetic Wizards to improve to 45-25. But then they're going to drop two-out-of-three on the road in Phoenix, New Orleans and Dallas. I don't know which two games will be losses, but I can tell you that a Hornets loss would be the worst because they'd own the season series over the Nuggets and thus, the home court playoff tiebreaker. So let's hope that's the one game the Nuggets win and they finish the three game roadie at 46-27. Next up, the Nuggets get five out of six games at home, and these games are a joke with the exception of a home date with Utah on April 2nd (on TNT). I believe that Chris Andersen's block in Rudy Fernandez's face broke the Nuggets TNT curse, and they'll beat the Jazz that night, winning their third straight home game. They'll beat the Clippers in Denver two days later, but lose their focus in Minneapolis the next day when the Timberwolves beat them unexpectedly, bringing the Nuggets record to 50-28. After a home win against the Thunder, the Nuggets will lose to the Lakers on April 9th (also on TNT) who want to show the Nuggets what they'll be facing should they meet in the second round. The Nuggets will then beat Sacramento at home and beat the Blazers in Portland to finish off the season with 53 wins and squeak by the Blazers for the division championship.

San Antonio Spurs

I know you want to see the Nuggets catch the Spurs, but it's not going to happen. The Spurs have a reasonably favorable schedule and will win 12 more games against just four losses to finish 56-26, three games ahead of Denver. Worst-case, they finish 54-28. Either way, the Nuggets aren't catching them.

Houston Rockets

Your Nuggets really shouldn't have screwed around against the Rockets in Denver last week because it's going to come back to haunt them. All George Karl had to do was give Renaldo Balkman a few minutes to harass Ron Artest and the Nuggets might have won that game! But while I can see into the future accurately, I regrettably don't possess the power to change the past. And looking ahead, I see the Rockets winning nine of their remaining 13 games, to tie the Nuggets with 53 wins. But by holding the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Rockets will get the third playoff seed while Denver settles for fourth and a likely second round matchup against the Lakers. Next time you talk to your coach and players, please remind them that some regular season games are more important than others!

New Orleans Hornets

The Hornets have a tougher schedule than San Antonio and Houston, but I still see them winning 11 more games while losing five to finish 52-30, just a game back from Denver. But remember, Nuggetsadamus is known to be off by a game! So make sure the Nuggets play their asses off in New Orleans next week. If they can win that game, the Nuggets will own the head-to-head tiebreaker which is the equivalent of giving them an extra game lead over the Hornets.

Portland Trailblazers

The Blazers will fall prey to their inexperience, winning 10 more games but dropping five, including the season-ender at home to your Nuggets. That last game will be similar to the Nuggets having to win at Golden State last season, and we saw how the Nuggets were able to man up and pull off the victory. But even if Portland wins that final game against Denver, they'll tie the Nuggets in record but lose the next tiebreaker, division record. My concern for you and your readers, though, is that the Nuggets will lose to the Hornets next week and the Blazers in the final game, leaving the Nuggets at 52-30, tied with the Hornets in record but get no home court advantage in the playoffs. I can't reiterate this enough: the Nuggets have to beat the Hornets next week!!

Utah Jazz

Oh, how the once mighty have fallen. The Jazz have had a remarkable season given their litany of injuries but - and pardon my strong language hear - they suck on the road. Unless there are a plethora of Mormons in the stands, the Jazz seem to play a couple notches below their true potential. Making matters worse, they have seven tough road games ahead and will lose at least five of them. I see Utah finishing 50-32 and with the seventh seed in the Western Conference.

While we were at it, I decided to ask Nuggetsadamus about the Broncos situation with Jay Cutler...

Don't ask me, that's above my pay grade. You'll have to check with Broncosadamus on that one.

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I still think the Spurs are ready to drop in the standings. The Nuggets really need to find a way to finish 2nd in the conference to make this a great playoff year. I'm much more optimistic about next week's three road games. Carrying a five game winning streak on to the road next week should get that swagger back and they should return to the form that had them beat Miami and Orlando back to back on the road last month. The key will be returning home to that easy schedule in April and taking full advantage of all of their lightweight opponents.

by Anonymous on Mar 17, 2009 3:09 PM MDT reply actions

I think the Nuggs can make it through the first round as long as they don't face the Spurs, Lakers, or Jazz...I guess that means, the odds are against them once again.

by Robin Z on Mar 17, 2009 3:22 PM MDT reply actions

Good post. Perhaps a little optimistic. If they finish lower than fourth, hello 4-1 loss in playoffs. Third would give a better chance to get a second round beating from the Spurs. The only way the catch the Spurs is if San Antonio is happy with any top 4 seed and starts resting Duncan and others.

The real key is health. Any major injuries to anyone in the rotation, including Balkman, and it's over. There simply isn't anyone on the bench after Balkman.

I'm a Washington fan for football. I'm used to seeing stupidity from the management of the team, but the way this thing has exploded is even worse than I am used to seeing in Washington. If Denver ends up trading cutler, it's a disaster. I'd sign up for a straight Jason Campbell for Cutler trade in a second, and I'm a fan of Campbell.

by KarlSucks on Mar 17, 2009 3:22 PM MDT reply actions

While KarlSucks thinks this is pretty optimistic, I think is not.
We are counting on losses on Minnesotta, which will be trying to loose for getting good lottery. and 2 losses in next week, when we face Dallas and Phoenix, 2 really winnable teams.
I really think we can win both on them, and then I guess we will loose against the Hornets...

Anyway the Nuggets have to go game by game, not worrying about the schedule, but worrying about the game they are on. They have to win both of this week's game, MUST win, and then, if we can pull off 2 wins next week and we will be pretty good situated.

by sepioes on Mar 17, 2009 3:45 PM MDT reply actions

Check the upcoming schedule. The Nuggets could be on a 14 game winning streak with this schedule. The three road games are all separated with a day off and all three of those teams are beatable. Probably the toughest game on that list is the game @ NO. If they go 13-1, I'll take it (includes the current 3 games they've just won).

Wed 18 @ Memphis
Fri 20 vs Washington
Mon 23 @ Phoenix
Wed 25 @ New Orleans
Fri 27 @ Dallas
Sat 28 vs Golden State
Tue 31 vs New York
Thu 02 vs Utah
Sat 04 vs LA Clippers
Sun 05 @ Minnesota
Wed 08 vs Oklahoma City

by Anonymous on Mar 17, 2009 3:46 PM MDT reply actions

Thanks Nuggetsadamus! Always good to hear from that guy. Anyways, I think 53 wins is a really good guess but it is really hard to say how the Nuggets will perform down the stretch. Will they collapse or will they rise up and play like division champions? That will really determine what our record will be. Here is how I see it shaking out...
Wed 18 @ Memphis W
Fri 20 vs Washington W
Mon 23 @ Phoenix W
Wed 25 @ New Orleans L
Fri 27 @ Dallas W
Sat 28 vs Golden State W
Tue 31 vs New York W
Thu 02 vs Utah W
Sat 04 vs LA Clippers W
Sun 05 @ Minnesota W
Wed 08 vs Oklahoma City L
Thu 09 @ LA Lakers L
Mon 13 vs Sactown W
Wed 15 @ Portland L

So this has us going 10-4, the same thing Nuggetsadamus saw. I think this is really the best case scenario too, I don't think we will win any more games than this but we could win less.

by Goldennugget on Mar 17, 2009 6:04 PM MDT reply actions

I aslo see the nugz coming out at 53-29, however I actually think the rockets fall off ever so sligthtly and finish at 52-30, but both portland and NO i see finishing at 53-29, leaving us with a very ugly three way tie breaking scenario. The way i see things finishing out, Denver and Portland will split te season series with Portland beating us on the final night. However, denver should still have a better division record giving them the tie breaker. As Nuggestadamus pointed out the NO game is huge because it decides the tie breaker, I have NO winning which gives them the 3 see, us the 4 and portland the five. It also gives us home court against the blazers in the first round, i see us winning in seven and then making a hasty 5 game exit in the second round to the lakers. Oh and an interesting side not: Utah has a brutal final schedule with 9 of their final games against teams over .500, I actually see them falling to eighth ending the season at 49-33 and being passed by Dallas who has a relatively easy schedule who will finish at 51-31

by Zachm219 on Mar 20, 2009 5:32 PM MDT reply actions

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STIFF LIST (as of 4/26 by Andrew Feinstein)

1. METTA WORLD PEACE

Metta resorted back to Ron Ron last Sunday by clubbing James Hardenwith an "inadvertent celebratory elbow", landing him a 7-game suspension. Apparently, changing his name didn't prevent NBA commissioner David Stern from overlooking Metta's past behavior problems.

2. CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

The 'Cats are on the verge of securing the worst winning percentage in NBA history. Given that the guy who runs the team - Michael Jordan - had previously drafted Kwame Brown and Adam Morrison, should this really be a shock?

3. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
The team that was supposedly built to overcome the lockout-shortened season managed to lose 7 of its last 14 games, ceding the Western Conference's 1-seed to the Spurs in the process. Their reward might be a first round matchup with defending champion Dallas.

4. BILLY HUNTER AND DEREK FISHER

With report after report coming out about NBPA union head Hunter's shady, nepotistic dealings and questions arising about Fisher's own role in dealing with NBA owners behind Hunter's back during the lockout, this off-the-court scandal could prove to be more exciting than the playoffs themselves!

5. STEVE NASH AND THE PHOENIX SUNS
The Suns are on this list for squandering the last few great seasons from Nash. Nash is on this list for his stupidly stubborn loyalty to a franchise as awful as the Suns.