The Nuggets can overcome the Melo injury. Here's why...

by Andrew Feinstein on Jan 6, 2009 2:02 PM MST Comment 34 comments

The news just broke that Carmelo Anthony will be out three-to-four weeks with a fractured bone in his shooting hand. The only good news being reported is that he doesn't need surgery. It's a somber day in Nuggets Nation indeed, but before we tear up our tickets and call it a season, let's look at the situation realistically and forecast where the Nuggets might be when Melo returns.

At 24-12 currently, the Nuggets are virtually tied with San Antonio for the second best record in the Western Conference. Unfortunately, due to the West remaining ultra competitive, the Nuggets are only 3.5 games ahead of the ninth seed, anchored currently by division rival Utah. Will they remain in such good standing when Melo returns? I believe so, and here's why...

Let's assume Melo won't be back until February 1st (over three-and-a-half weeks from now). Between now and then, the Nuggets have eight of 11 games at the Pepsi Center. Maybe I'm being overly myopic, but I see the Nuggets winning at least five of those eight home games (if I had to guess, they'll lose to either Detroit, Dallas, Orlando, Phoenix or Utah, but not to all five). And the road games are at Houston, New Orleans and Memphis. Let's figure the Nuggets win just one of those.

If I'm right, the Nuggets will wrap up January at 30-17, just a hair worse (projected .638) percentage-wise than where they're at now. That's still on pace for a 52-win season.

Maybe I'm wrong and the Nuggets drop half the home games and all three road games. They'd then be 28-19 (.596) and projected to win 49 games. Still not bad all things considered, but I don't even see that happening.

Of course we all know that January was meant to be the time for the Nuggets to get well ahead in the wins column with all the home dates available and a ghastly road trip on the horizon for February. But is the February road trip really that bad?

Consider...

...the Nuggets eight game road trip in February is really one five-game and one three-game road trip, because the NBA All-Star break splits it up. Between the Nuggets fifth road game at Orlando and the sixth at Philadelphia, the Nuggets have a full week off.

...the first five games on that road trip are at Oklahoma City, Washington, New Jersey, Miami and Orlando. With Melo back, those are all win-able with the exception of the Magic game which is on the second of a back-to-back and right before the All-Star break.

...after the break, the second three road games are at Philadelphia, Chicago and Milwaukee and none of them are back-to-back affairs. Last I checked, those three teams still suck.

Frankly, I'm much more concerned about the Nuggets three-game home stand at the end of February when they host Boston, Atlanta and the Lakers. Yikes!

Beyond the schedule, there might be other silver linings to Melo's injury. First off, Melo has had elbow problems all season and this month off will give his elbows time to heal. It's not unreasonable to believe he could be even better when he returns. Secondly, J.R. Smith and Linas Kleiza have both been playing consistently well as of late and should be able to fill the scoring void left by Melo's absence. J.R. and Linas have griped in the past about their minutes (J.R.) and their contract (Linas). Now J.R. and Linas get the opportunity to prove to the Nuggets that they deserve starter minutes and starter money, respectively. And thirdly, maybe George Karl will remember that he has Renaldo Balkman on his roster and Balkman will play his way into more meaningful playing time as the season goes on.

So as you can see, I'm not spooked by the Melo injury yet. And a win over Miami on Wednesday night would go a long way to instill confidence in the fans that these Nuggets can win with or without their star player.

The Nuggets have played harder for us this season than in recent years past. They need our support now more than ever, so let's give it to them.

Go Nuggets!!

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Unfortunately his elbows probably won't be all that much better. Bone spurs require surgery it will probably take him till about a year from now to be 100% again after off-season surgery.

by Anonymous on Jan 6, 2009 3:13 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I agree with everything. I think the Nuggets will likely have a team meeting today or tomorrow discuss how they will handle the next few weeks, and I think Chauncey can inspire some effort and pride in these guys. I've always thought that the ball moves around more without Melo on the floor. Although the scoring will go down, I think they can get better looks and easier shots. Melo will be missed, but I think when all the players know they have to do it without him they will play with more effort and toughness. Go nugz.

by Maxwell on Jan 6, 2009 3:16 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I've had this Friday's game triple starred and bold highlighted for so long now. If we can find a way to pull that one off, now without Melo, it would be even sweeter.

by Anonymous on Jan 6, 2009 3:40 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

It's an absolute joke that the Nuggets are even getting a pass for this ridiculous home stretch, regardless of who's injured. Even the bad Van Exel teams took care of business at home. Their division lead should do nothing but grow wider. The offense moves more freely without Tubs anyway.

by Anonymous on Jan 6, 2009 4:00 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

More minutes for JR!!!

by Anonymous on Jan 6, 2009 4:02 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

good post andrew. I seem to recall melo playing much better after he took some time off a few weeks back.

And what is with all the melo hate in the comments in the last few days?? How many players put up 22-8 EVERY NIGHT while battling serious elbow issues and continue playing with a BROKEN HAND!!!! not to mention are clutch as hell? granted melo isn't lebron, but he is still young, a vital part of a gold medal basketball team, and has put much more work in on his D....haters

by Brent on Jan 6, 2009 4:39 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I generally agree...but, this also puts more pressure on Nene and K-Mart to get it done every day. Will this lead to a breakdown sooner rather than later? Please get us a back-up big man! Please!

by Anonymous on Jan 6, 2009 4:56 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Brent,

Good comment about Melo. Anyone notice the stat line last night? 9 assists, 6 rebounds. Absent the injured hand, could have gone easily for a triple double.

The other thing melo critics need to keep in mind is the coaching he receives, or lack thereof. Imagine how much better he would be with actual plays and actual defensive coaching. Last night was a perfect example. J.R. had two turnovers on pick and rolls because the guy setting the pick didn't roll and J.R. expected him to. Think J.R. ran any more pick and rolls after that? No plays means no one knows what to expect, no easy shots, and miscommunication. With an actual offense getting him some easy shots, Melo would average 35 a night.

Also, reading multiple reports on ESPN and other places that the Nuggets are getting ready for a trade. Getting rid of Samb was part of that to clear salary space. ESPN mentions lucking into some sort of Gasol like trade that the Lakers got last year. The other report mentioned Joe Smith from OK.

by KarlSucks on Jan 6, 2009 5:03 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I thought Samb went to the D-League.

I'm anxious to see how the Nugs do this month without Melo, because they are still a talented team and fun to watch even without him. I've got tickets to Miami and Phoenix, and I think that, while we will have a different feel, we'll still be successful this month.

Yeah, I agree that Melo needs structure and an offense designed around him. An offense that flows, that is. He would be a beast, but he's still not a leader in my book. Chauncey=leader, Melo=scorer.

Maybe now we'll see Balkman play some more, and if Kleiza can become visible again that would be good for us and him. JR should be fun to watch, too. My guess is that he goes off and scores 20+ in at least half of the games this month. Now is his chance to shine!

Get better, Melo, and Go Nuggets!!!

by Do We Have Any Plays? on Jan 6, 2009 5:25 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Samb was traded to the Clippers.

Weems was called up.

by Anonymous on Jan 6, 2009 6:10 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Melo is what he is. It's just unlucky that he came out the same year as two guys that put up Melo's best numbers on bad days.

by Anonymous on Jan 6, 2009 6:13 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

samb was traded to free up cap space perhaps? i smell a trade on the horizon. david lee perhaps? emeka okafor maybe?

by andrew fisher on Jan 6, 2009 6:14 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

by Do We Have Any Plays? on Jan 6, 2009 7:23 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Oops, let me clarify. I thought I heard that Samb was sent to the D-League prior to this trade... I'm not sure though. Was he still sitting on the bench for the Nuggs when this trade was announced, or was he with the 14ers? How would that even work?

I'm not certain on this, but wouldn't it not matter that Samb was with the 14ers? He is still a contracted Nuggets player who can be traded at any time. That's how I think it should work anyway.

Also, Weems has been recalled now that Melo is out. I hope he gets some game time. With him, Balkman, Jones and Smith (plus GK likes to play 2 point guards at the same time), I still think we have enough wing players to be able to trade Kleiza now to get a big man if that's what it takes. We need a big man more than we need LK to replace Melo methinks.

by Julian from Australia on Jan 6, 2009 7:36 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

don't expect a blockbuster trade. the nuggets will try to add another big to deepen the frontcourt rotation. but i dont think they're going to bring somebody in who takes a bunch of kenyon's or nene's minutes.

in retrospective...i just hated to see melo dunk the ball with his right hand after jeff foster hit him.

by MZG on Jan 6, 2009 8:07 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Honestly, I'm pissed, I ordered tickets for January 27th for watching live Denver @ Grizzlies, and of course, I'd like to watch Melo, but well, I don't think it will be possible, but he might heal faster than expected, you never know, so I have a little bit of hope yet.

by Lucas Navarrete on Jan 6, 2009 9:21 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

But I just listened his words and I think he might come back in 2 weeks or 2 weeks and a half. He's a tough guy hahahaha

Just hoping he can comeback before the time the doctors said

by Lucas Navarrete on Jan 6, 2009 9:30 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Look guys, the bottom line is we all know this team better than anyobody and we know what we are talking about when we say that we are going to be OK without Melo. Remember at the beginning of the season when everyone counted out the Nuggets to even finish above .500 simply because Camby was traded and everyone thought we had commited to a new philosophy, yet most of the people on this blog felt we would be just fine without him, and maybe even better? Look who's laughing now, us. I, and correct me if I am wrong, noticed in watching the Nuggets this year that Melo almost seems to disrupt the flow of the offense and defense when he is on the floor. I am not saying this effects the team negativley, it just seems as though the team knows when Melo is off the court that everyone has to step it up, as most teams do when their star is injured. And I have full trust in this team without Melo. I think Balkman is a really solid defensive presence and Kleiza and JR would be starter on a lot of teams in the league, so I am not afraid of taking on the league without our star. Now, hopefully he gets back soon, but maybe he will learn something on the sidelines.

by Goldennugget on Jan 6, 2009 11:56 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

there's a trade a-brewin. i'm tellin ya. samuel dalembert has been mentioned. david lee too. we could see k-mart or kleiza gone for another big man.

by andrew fisher on Jan 7, 2009 6:57 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Has K-Mart made himself tradeable?

by John on Jan 7, 2009 7:47 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

You can slice it and dice it any way you like but in the end if Melo's absence costs us 2 or 3 wins it costs us 2 or 3 wins regardless of the relative ease of games during/after his absence.

Like you though, I'm hopeful we might survive this. Our best hope is to win our division, which I think we can still do, mostly because 1) Boozer remains out of the picture @ Utah for the foreseeable future and 2) Portland remains shaky.

by JTR on Jan 7, 2009 8:27 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Golden Nugget,

I like your optimism, but let's not revise history when it comes to the outlook for this team at the beginning of the season. The Nuggets are much better than expected because of the A.I. trade. If he was still on the team, they would not have the record they have today. Here's hoping that everyone steps it up while Melo's out and the team improves. Not just his points, but someone needs to pick up his rebounds as well. I think he leads the league in rebounds by a SF.

As for a trade of Martin, that won't happen. First no one would take him- his contract is too long and too big, and he gets hurt too much. If anyone would have taken him, it would have been him and not Camby they got rid of in the summer. Second, they are already thin up front. No way they trade one of the three they play, and not the best defender of the three.

by KarlSucks on Jan 7, 2009 8:40 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Most of the speculation seems to be around Joe Smith of OKC. He's in the last year of his contract, so the nuggets wouldn't be taking on a big contract.

What do you guys think of going after Brad Miller? He's available. Give them Atkins and Hunter, plus the nuggets #1 next year? The salaries don't match, so they'd have to use the trade excemption. Sacramento would likely ask for Kleiza instead. He is a restricted FA at the end of the year. Miller would be bringing on a big salary for next year, but if you move Hunter, Atkins, and Kleiza, it's a wash. Would you start Miller and Nene, or Nene and Martin?

by KarlSucks on Jan 7, 2009 9:28 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Karl Sucks - Yeah I actually thought about Brad Miller as well. The Kings are looking to move him (I don't know why) but I think he would be a good fit here in Denver. I would have Martin come off the bench if we landed him. It would suck to have to loose Kleiza though.

by Goldennugget on Jan 7, 2009 10:58 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

this is the measure of a team ladies and gentlemen. can they hack it? if they do, great. if they don't, at least you have karl to blame.

either way you win...

by Anonymous on Jan 7, 2009 11:52 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

http://www.denverpost.com/nuggets/ci_11390112

Quoting GK as it pertains to the lineup sans Melo:

"I think Chucky's in there," Karl said. "I love Chucky. I'm not sure if he fits the formula or not." Karl's decision on starters will be "more of a situational thing," he said. "I think it's going to be more matchups. . . . My big thing is I like keeping the bench consistency. I usually use the starting situation as kind of a thank you for guys who have hung around and stayed around and been professional about what they do."

Ugh. Bench consistency? Rewarding sycophantic cronyism? I realize that last statement is an exaggeration of terms on my part, but that explains GK's ideology in choosing the starting lineup.

by Artimus Mangilord on Jan 7, 2009 12:44 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Formula?

Really?

I would hate to see KMart go. He may drive you nuts sometimes, but he plays hard. The only good thing to come of a KMart trade would be the salary dump.

I could deal with trading Kleiza. He's had his moments, but he doesn't seem to be the same player as last season. I always considered Kleiza and Najara kind of a one-two punch off the bench, and without Najara Kleiza just doesn't have the same impact.

I'm looking forward to the Miami game tonight.

Go Nuggets!

by Do We Have Any Plays? on Jan 7, 2009 1:31 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Any trade the Nuggets make is absolutely NOT putting more money back on the books this season. It may spread across future seasons, but I know there is no way they are going back over the luxury tax this year now that they finally got under the tax line. That trade exception was changed to November 2009, so don't look for the Nuggets to use that any time soon. (Note: they traded the Camby exception already and picked up a new trade exception in the Billups / McDyess deals.)

by Anonymous on Jan 7, 2009 1:31 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Nuggets trade Chucky Atkins to OKC

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_11398724

by Anonymous on Jan 7, 2009 3:05 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Johan Petro? 4 points and 4 boards a game? At least he's 7' tall. No where near the production of a Joe Smith, but he's cheap. They gave up their two most tradeable assets for this guy? I guess we'll see. Smacks of desperation, unless this is another "chess move" and they have another deal lined up for Hunter and Kleiza.

by Anonymous on Jan 7, 2009 3:46 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Looks like George Karl will have to settle for a long-distance love affair.

So much for that plan, George. I think you may be outside the front office's "Circle Of Trust."

Adios, Chucky. Best of luck in OK!

by Do We Have Any Plays? on Jan 7, 2009 4:22 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Petro? How is he much different than Samb? Plus, he's much more expensive (although he slides the Nugs under the cap). He is raw and Karl (and his staff) will have to coach him if he is expected to get better and contribute, and we all know that isn't George's strong point.

I really hope that isn't the final move the Nugs make.

by Anonymous on Jan 7, 2009 4:30 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

And getting rid of that first round draft choice, gets rid of the guaranteed money that goes along with it. Second round draft picks get no guaranteed $$ and are much cheaper.

by Anonymous on Jan 7, 2009 4:36 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Dang, that sucks, at least Chucky will get some playing time now. I was hearing rumors of David Lee comming to Denver and that they want Kleiza. I am just scared because I think JR would be a perfect fit for the Knicks and I hope we don't deal him.

by Goldennugget on Jan 7, 2009 5:35 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

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THE STIFF LIST (as of 2/7 by Andrew)

STIFF #1: THE FUTURE OF THE NBPA
If the NBA owners opening proposal for the new collective bargaining agreement is any indication, we're heading for a lockout in 2011 and after that, smaller contracts, smaller salaries and less revenue shared with the players.

STIFF #2: THE CLIPPERS
After correctly kicking Mike Dunleavy upstairs and rightly installing Kim Hughes as head coach, why are rumors of Isiah Thomas joining the Clips circling around already?

STIFF #3: THE EASTERN CONFERENCE
Rumors of the re-birth of the Eastern Conference have been greatly exaggerated. Yes, the Cavaliers are awesome but the sixth playoff seed might be sub-.500. And do you think any of the West's top six teams fear the Celtics, Magic or Hawks? No chance.

STIFF #4: ANKLE INJURIES
First Carmelo Anthony. Then Chauncey Billups. And now possibly Arron Afflalo? Tape those ankles up, dammit!

STIFF #5: NEW JERSEY NETS
4-46 and losers to the lowly Pistons on Saturday night. But Lawrence Frank was the problem, right?

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