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Turmoil to follow

ESPN gave our team a sobering preview of the season to come: http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-34-63/Turmoil-to-Follow.html 

We managed to beat out the Warriors, Suns and Knicks as the team most likely to descent into turmoil in 08-09! We have already discussed similair articles, but there are a few points I'd pull them up on:

1.. Nuggets are regretting letting go of Andre Miller because look at how well the 76rs did without AI last year.

The Nuggets won a ton more games with AI than without him. Plus we are competing in the actual NBA, i.e. not the east, which means our making the playoffs was a significantly more impressive feat than Philly making it.

 

2. Rockets got a few votes as a team that could descent? Wtf?

 

3.Allen Iverson didn't get his extension, which at his age and contract demands was understandable but may not exactly have him thinking team-first right now.

The fact that AI is in what may be his last season as a Nugget mean that our SUPERSTAR SCORING GUARD will EXPLODE. God-damn. People refuse to acknowledge how incredible a basketball asset that guy is for some reason. Put the man on the floor and he will give you 25 points. Peroid.  Is that such a bad thing?

4. J.R. Smith now has more years on his contract than George Karl, which makes you wonder how that relationship will continue to fester.

Karl loves JR.

Write respectfully of your SB Nation community and yourself.

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I read that post too

You all know that I believe the Nuggets are not going to fall off the face of the earth this season as the media wants everyone to believe. After being written off by so much of the media I cannot wait to read what their excuses are for when Denver is one of the top eight teams in the west after the first couple of months of the season.

I also thought the Andre Miller line was silly. The Nuggets knew exactly what they were giving up, a solid point guard who cannot shoot and tended to be a little too selfish in crunch time. Miller is a nice player, but they make that trade 100 times out of 100.

The J.R. comment does have some validity, but I find it unlikely that J.R. takes a step backward this season. He knows he will only get a truly big payday if his game continues to mature. Karl has done a pretty good job handling him and I think they both respect each other enough that contract statuses have no bearing on their relationship.

Thanks for the post joshhopp!

by Jeremy on Sep 15, 2008 9:31 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

The Nuggets won a ton more games with AI than without him.

The Nuggets won six more regular season games with AI than they did with Andre Miller.

And they still haven’t advanced out of the first round of the playoffs.

Due in large part to Iverson’s $20 million dollar contract, the Nuggets have also been forced to part ways with Steve Blake, Marcus Camby, and Eduardo Najera for financial reasons.

by ballerblogger on Sep 15, 2008 4:22 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

correction: we didnt win a ton more. but we are in the west

No worries Jeremy. Man, I feel ya. I couldn’t have put it better myself so I’ll just copy and paste what you said: After being written off by so much of the media I cannot wait to read what their excuses are for when Denver is one of the top eight teams in the west after the first couple of months of the season.

GO NUGGETS

by joshhopp on Sep 15, 2008 5:50 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

we are in the west

I agree. The Nuggets making the playoffs was much more impressive than the 76ers accomplishing the same feat.

But was that the goal when you dealt for Iverson?

Iverson was brought in to compete for NBA championships, which hasn’t happened.

I used to love Iverson’s game. But I think Denver made a mistake by trading Miller and their financial flexibility in exchange for a one-dimensional player. Especially since the Nuggets already possessed one of the league’s best offensive weapons.

by ballerblogger on Sep 16, 2008 2:38 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd rather a backcourt with AI than one with A.Miller to compete for a championship

AI has already carried a scrappy 76rs team to the NBA finals; in hindsight its so easy to say “We didn’t win a championship with AI so it was a mistake.” I’d counter that we do better with him than without him and it would have been at least equally as silly to trudge along with A.Mill running the show hoping to win it all. But I see your point. What I’d like to see is AI playing some serious minutes at the point and giving JR a start at the 2, at least a trial of a few games with that backcourt would be interesting. Heck, we are going to lose our first game (@ energy solutions) no matter what we do.

by joshhopp on Sep 16, 2008 6:34 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Ball Don't Lie is a great friend to Pickaxe and Roll

I move a Fanpost to the front page and all of the sudden I have to share credit with joshhopp for my blog? Just kidding. I think all of you who read, comment and post deserve recognition for your contributions to this blog as well. We may not have the most comments of all the Nuggets blogs and message boards, but I think we have the smartest community of readers and participants. Thanks to all of you for helping make this a blog that Nuggets fans can be proud of.

Both Kelly Dwyer and J.E. Skeets over at Ball Don’t Lie have been very kind in recognizing our better work and I really appreciate their support.

Also, the URL in joshhopp’s comment is broken so click here to read the post he is referring to.

by Jeremy on Sep 16, 2008 7:58 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seriously?

You guys are really upset about that article? I have yet to see an argument in there that is stupid. Let’s look at what they said….

  • Nuggets are regretting letting go of Andre Miller because look at how well the 76rs did without AI last year.

First off, full disclosure — I’m a huge Andre Miller fan. He’s one of my favorite players. Let’s be honest, the AI trade hasn’t worked out as well as we hoped. That said, I don’t blame the front office for making the move, it’s a move you have to make. But you do have to consider if the Nugs might not be better with Dre out there. He’s limited offensively when it comes to shooting, but (IMO) the offense moved a little smoother with him out there. Once again, I’d still do the deal today, but it is a legit question to wonder about.

  • Allen Iverson didn’t get his extension, which at his age and contract demands was understandable but may not exactly have him thinking team-first right now.

I disagree with the team-first mentality coming to the front there, but you do have to wonder if this is the year that age catches up to him. Do I think it’ll happen this year? No. But eventually he’s going to break down. Which is why the Nugs haven’t given him a long extension so far.

  • J.R. Smith now has more years on his contract than George Karl, which makes you wonder how that relationship will continue to fester.

I’m sorry Josh, but Karl does NOT love JR. Karl has repeatedly tried to campaign to get the front office to trade him. Karl has campaigned to get the front office to let him go. Karl hates JR and in the playoffs two years ago called him an “insult to the game of basketball”. Thank merciful God the front office ignored Karl on this one. Tension will still be tight between the two, but it won’t be because of the contract.

  • The Camby Loss

Everyone who’s ever talked to me knows that I can not stand Marcus Camby. He was the most overrated player in the NBA the last few seasons, and our defense will not suffer because of his absence (it might actually improve). Jeremy has pointed the numbers out on this one, and he’s right. That said, ESPN did bring up a valid concern — the chemistry problem. Camby was well liked by his teammates. He was a captain. As much as he sucked, he was popular. Hopefully the players get over the loss of him and get their act together. Nene removing his head from his ass would go a long way in doing that.

I’m actually kind of surprised by the optimism for the season on this blog. I hope you guys are right and that I’m wrong, but I don’t see us in the playoffs.

The artist formerly known as Nuggets4.

by JLucas4092 on Sep 17, 2008 9:31 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Way to burst our bubble JLucas

1. A Mil is definitely a solid floor general, but as you said he is severely limited offensively. Yes, it would be wonderful to have him in our backcourt still but I support the trade because a) It was a confident move that demonstrated Nuggets head office was not satisfied with just making the playoffs and b) we have one more games with AI that we did with AM. You’ve said the offense ran smoother, well, fair enough, but how many games did he win for us?

2. I don’t think AI is going to break down this year either; how many players go from averaging 25ppg and 6apg in one year to failing miserably the next? Sure it could happen if he gets injured, but the same could be said for any player. The amazing thing about AI is his durability; he is one of the smallest guys in the leugue but he is prepared to take huge hits to get to the free throw line consistently and free throws are the bread and butter of a team’s offense.

3. It’s no secret that Karl was furious with JR after the 06-07 playoffs, but since the 07-08 All star break JR has emerged as one of the most coveted offensive assets in the leugue. He played better than Melo in the playoffs this year and Karl loved him for it. No ways Karl feels anything like he did about JR now! He has developed exponentially since that catastophic series. He avereged 18 points, shooting 50% from the field and did enough to impress Kobe Bryant. You think George Karl is so bitter he is going to ignore JR’s recent success and harbour a grudge? Come on.

4. I’ve already mentioned I’m a big Camby fan. In addition to his stats and locker-room qualities, there is now pretty good evidence he was our MVP last season. I don’t have a problem with making Nene our man in the middle, but to at least keep Camby as a solid backup is a better option than to donate him to the Clips and in the process create another legitiate 8th seed contender. And yes I know we needed the cap space. But I’m a basketball fan, I don’t put stock in the team’s financial health.

I think that we are in the running for the 8th spot. Dallas, Phoenix and San Antonio are unlikely to improve this season and may slip a few games, whilst Portland and possibly the Clippers will probably enter the contention. I don’t know about the Warriors, I have a feeling that Andris Bedrins will come up big next season and put them back in the 45-50 win area, and I’ve always thought Baron took too many bad shots so it may all even out for them. As for us, well, a healthy Nene and a bit of improved perimeter defence should put us in the picture, but as I’ve said I am a big Camby fan and hence believe we will slip a few games. All in all I definitely can’t wait for the regular season to start.

by joshhopp on Sep 17, 2008 8:46 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Didn't mean to burst any bubbles...

so I apologize for that. Maybe it’s just the natural pessimism of being a Nugs fan for my entire life.

1.) I think we’re on the same page here, I’m just doing a poor job of wording my opinion. The Nugs had to do the AI deal. Period. No ifs ands or buts. If I’m the front office, I do the deal 100 times out of 100. Period. That said, it’s worth considering if the team would be different had they not done the deal. Not saying the writer is right there, just saying that it is a legitimate thing to consider.

2.) Agreed. Yet again, it’s a “what if” not a “will happen”. Injuries are part of the game. AI’s dodged them most of his career. We need that streak to continue. I have confidence that it will, but it is a concern.

3.) I hope you’re right. I’m just nervous. The rumblings I’ve heard from the front office are not good regarding Karl and his relationship with both JR & Melo.

4.) Here’s where we greatly differ. I’m a huge stat nerd, and while I respect Wages of Wins, I’m going to differ with them on this one. If you look at per 36 numbers, you’ll see that Camby averaged 9.4 points and 13.5 rebounds. Solid numbers, but not stellar. The problem I have is that he wasn’t EFFICIENT in that time. His adjusted FG% is 45.5. That was 13th on the team last year. In fact, if you look only at players that got regular playing time for us, he was higher only than Chucky Atkins. His points per shot number (which I think is HUGELY underrated as a stat) was 1.14 — tied for 11th. With rotation players, he’s tied with Anthony Carter and ahead of only Chucky Atkins. People talk about how K-Mart is a horrid offensive player, but he looks like Dr. J compared to Camby’s numbers (K-Mart was 53.9 and 1.25). The stats where we’ll miss Camby the most are rebounds and blocked shots. When it comes to rebounds, at least once every game you’d see him rip the ball out of Melo’s hands. I think Melo’s going to pick up his rebounding this year. I have faith in Martin and Nene to pick up the slack as well, so there shouldn’t be too much of a drop off. As for blocked shots, I’m a big believer in that being the most overrated stat in basketball (along with steals). It’s rewarding players for gambling on defense. The problem is that for every blocked shot Camby would get, he’d give up at least 1 or 2 layups because he left his man. I’d much rather have a defender that plays straight up like K-Mart than Camby.

Don’t get me wrong, I think we’re in contention for the 8th spot, but I just don’t think we’ll get it. I still put teh West into the following tiers:

Elite: New Orleans, Lakers
Close to Elite: Houston, San Antonio, Utah
Solid playoffs: Portland, Phoenix
Fighting for #8: Dallas, Denver, Golden State, Clippers and Sacramento (who could be a sleeper)

Of that last group, I think we have the most talent, but we need to be a lot less disfunctional than we were in the past. It’s going to be tough.

BTW, you know that the wins shared formula is based on Dean Oliver’s book “Basketball on Paper” right? Did you also know that Oliver works for the Nugs? Just a neat little fact I enjoy because it proves that at least our front office listens to the “stat nerds” which is a VERY good thing.

The artist formerly known as Nuggets4.

by JLucas4092 on Sep 18, 2008 9:11 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting stuff

I’ve also often wondered about blocks and steals as being poorly representative of good basketball. It was different in the old days with guys like Bill and Kareem who seemed to retain possesion and often spark a fast-break offense after a block. I’ve never been a fan of the whole “Put it the third row” thing.

by joshhopp on Sep 18, 2008 6:01 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

EXACTLY!

See Josh, the things that unite us are greater than those that divide us. ;)

The “Third row” block is great when you need the momentum swing. When you do it every time though, it’s just stupid. Sadly, most NBA players know the third row block will get them on SportsCenter, where the tip block that leads to a fastbreak won’t.

The artist formerly known as Nuggets4.

by JLucas4092 on Sep 19, 2008 9:58 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

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