Start J.R. already!...
by Andrew Feinstein on Dec 21, 2008 10:03 AM MST
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The irony of ironies might be upon us. In order for George Karl to save his job, he might have to start his least favorite player.Throughout the season, I've taken the stance that I'm ok with J.R. Smith coming off the bench as long as he gets starter's minutes and fills in a Manu Ginobili-type role. But unlike the Spurs, the Nuggets regularly fall behind out of the gate, just as they did against the Suns last night en route to their third straight loss. Therefore, it's becoming painfully evident that they can't start the game playing four-on-five anymore and JR. has to start.
And start now!
Dahntay Jones brings defensive intensity onto the court and should be applauded for giving a great effort on a nightly basis. But during the the first six to eight minutes that Jones plays in starting each game, the Nuggets fall behind almost every night while he gives the team absolutely nothing offensively. The Nuggets have been doing a lot of things wrong over the last few games and all the blame doesn't sit with Jones. But regularly digging themselves into eight, 10, or 15 point deficits and having to climb back is wearing this team down.
When Allen Iverson was here, I could understand not starting J.R. in that you would have had two shoot-first players in the backcourt. But with Chauncey Billups on board to set up J.R. and call him out for bad shots, and Linas Kleiza playing better to provide scoring punch off the bench, there's absolutely no reason not to start J.R.
Beginning with the Mavericks game that the Nuggets won last Monday night and ending with the second Trailblazers game coming up this Tuesday, this six game stretch was like a year-end final exam for our Nuggets. So far the Nuggets get a D- on the exam. They still have a chance to improve their grade by beating the Blazers twice in a row. But if they don't start J.R., I see them falling behind early again and getting worn out by the deeper, bigger Blazers.
J.R. Smith is the Nuggets X-factor that their Western Conference competitors don't possess. It's time to take full advantage of it.
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However, last night's loss to Phoenix didn't feel like it came down to not starting J.R. Rather, why was J.R, Linas and the rest of the reserves on the court at the end of the third and beginning of the fourth removed?! They were shooting the ball better and playing all around better than several of the starters including Carmelo.
I've generally liked Karl and the Nuggets very much this season. But, the erratic utilization of players and substitutions remains bizarre to me. I hope we can get some stability and consistency around that soon beginning the next three days vs. Portland.
by Brett on Dec 21, 2008 10:46 AM MST reply actions
Why did Billups shot every single ball in the last minutes... come on man, JR was hot, give SOME (not all of them) balls to him...
We are still the best team in Northwest division, thanks to Utah's game yesterday against Chicago (thank you Derrick Rose), but we NEED to win both games against Portland, we need those victories for putting some distance between the Blazers and us...
Go Nuggets
by Lucas Navarrete on Dec 21, 2008 11:58 AM MST reply actions
Are we seeing the same thing with CB that we saw with A.I.? At first the coaching from the previous team stays with them and the whole team plays well. Eventually the lax culture and lack of coaching allow the new player to relax and fall into bad habits?
by KarlSucks on Dec 21, 2008 12:31 PM MST reply actions
If more of JR's minutes didn't come at the end of the game, his shot selection would probably be better than it has been and his percentages would probably be better. Still, putting another jump shooter on the floor is not going to be the answer for this team when the problem is a lack of commitment to going to the rim.
by JTR on Dec 21, 2008 2:48 PM MST reply actions
I was thinking the same thing -- that instead of Chauncey influencing the team, the team's bad habits appear to be influencing Chauncey (see: shooting everything in the final minute last night).
Also, Carmelo looks really injured. Karl says that he wants to play. Unfortunately, there are times when as a coach, you have to sit a guy until he gets healthy. Maybe you lose a couple games in the immediate future, but you are better in the long run.
Andrew,
I'm glad that you have come aboad the start J.R. bandwagon. As I have said in about 1000 comments, it makes no sense to start a lineup that for the most part of the season was below average. Our starting lineup plays 4x as many minutes as next most played lineup, so it matters how well they perform. I like Dahntay, but he brings very little to the table.
The good news is that if Karl plays Andrew's proposed lineup, the Nuggets will probably play better. Andrew's lineup has an offensive efficiency of 118.99 in 79 possessions whereas the current starting lineup has an offensive efficiency of 110.93 in 366 possessions. On defense, Andrew's lineup has a defensive efficiency of 94.81 and the current starting lineup has a DE of 106.27. In other words, Andrew's lineup (with J.R.) is better on BOTH offense and defense. Shhhh, don't tell George Karl.
Just to give you an idea of how this affects the team, here is how the team would perform if Andrew's lineup played the starter's minutes and the starters played Andrew's lineup's minutes (assuming similar production, which I know is ridiculous, but stay with me). Our team would have scored 24 more points and given up 33 fewer points. That's +57 points through 27 games or +2.11 points per game.
At the Nuggets current point differential of +4 per game they can expect to win about 51 games. However, with +6 point differential, the Nuggets can expect to win about 56 games. In other words (based on this really rough calculation), starting J.R. could be worth about 5 wins over the course of the season.
It's probably not reasonable for Andrew's lineup to continue its great production, but it is reasonable to believe that his lineup could be worth a couple of wins in a conference where that could be the difference between home court in the first round and another one-and-done.
by Matthew on Dec 21, 2008 3:11 PM MST reply actions
those 5 games could even be the difference between making the playoffs or not.
we need a better attidue from Billups than yesterday's one
by Lucas Navarrete on Dec 21, 2008 3:47 PM MST reply actions
by Brett on Dec 21, 2008 4:51 PM MST reply actions
"Still, putting another jump shooter on the floor is not going to be the answer for this team when the problem is a lack of commitment to going to the rim"
Being that it was so brief, I guess you missed the playoffs against the LA last season?
JR and Kleiza were the only players taking strong to the hoop.
JR is actually very effective at going to the hoop and scores more often than not when doing so, same goes for Linas.
If only Melo would take it to the rack more often than settling for a contested J (although it is a VERY nice shot).
If he is too hurt to do so, then I think he should sit out a couple of games to get healthy.
Can't wait to see George go, and with the amount of coaches available, what time is better than now?
by CB on Dec 21, 2008 4:57 PM MST reply actions
I don't think we should stand for this. The press should be all over Karl. We should either bench Melo or find an offense that plays to his strengths. There's too much standing around, and the only reason JR and Kleiza (who is also playing awful this season, save for a couple of decent games) look good is because they are the only ones who can succeed under Karl's misdirection, as they are the only Nuggets who can create for themselves.
No preparation for Cleveland. No consistent rotation. Not playing guys who play well and are eager to help (Balkman, JR and Birdman down the stretch). How much more do we have to take?
Fire George Karl!
by Do We Have Any Plays? on Dec 21, 2008 5:58 PM MST reply actions
by trasoul82 on Dec 22, 2008 1:14 AM MST reply actions
by samiam on Dec 22, 2008 1:16 AM MST reply actions
1. JTR, name one player other then Melo you would rather have take it to the rim then Jr, i actually think i'd take him over melo on driving to the basket
2. Matthew, if i wanted some boring by the numbers efficiency analysis i can go to espn.com and read john hollingers garbage, numbers don't mean everything
3. Brett, given the injuries, Mike Shanahan has done one of the greatest coaching jobs of his career, regardless of where the broncos finish
4. Finally to virtually all posters on this thread, Karl has lead us to one of our best starts in franchise history, if they didn't fire him after the playoff debacle last year, there is no way in hell he's getting fired now
by Zachm219 on Dec 22, 2008 1:24 AM MST reply actions
by Anonymous on Dec 22, 2008 1:28 AM MST reply actions
George Karl hasn't LED the Nuggets to anything. They were 1-3 before the trade for Billups. Billups arrives and there a fresh attitude and they go on a nice run. Now it's back to reality. This is not an overreaction. This is a realization based on what I've seen since GK has "coached" a full season. And George Karl also "led" the Nuggets to one of the best finishes in franchise history when he took over for Bzdelic. What does it matter if we don't stand a chance against true contenders?
If all everyone wants to do is have a winning regular season, then they should keep Karl. If they want a chance to make it to at least the 2nd round they need to drop him, period. This is just going to be another mediocre winning season where they get bounced in the first round. Anyone who can't see that is truly in denial. They can't be serious contenders without some type of offensive system. And starting J.R. may help initially, but it is still NOT a system.
by trasoul82 on Dec 22, 2008 4:50 AM MST reply actions
if you're going to defend george karl, at least give a logical explanation behind your belief. because from where i'm standing, it sure does look like most of the blame is on the coach.
GIVE JR HIS PROPS!
by andrew fisher on Dec 22, 2008 7:39 AM MST reply actions
and GK gets his praise from this blogger and some of us readers when he does something right. it's just, that rarely is the case.
by andrew fisher on Dec 22, 2008 7:41 AM MST reply actions
Also I can't wait for a Nuggets bullying, look at us! showoff game against a loser team after this pathetic stretch of play, that always gets me up..HIGHFIVE !!!
by markp on Dec 22, 2008 8:21 AM MST reply actions
Besides, if JR isn't on the 2nd team, who's going to score the ball? Don't tell me Kleiza, because he's very inconsistent, and likes to camp out at the 3 point line. Maybe Atkins, but we haven't seen enough of him to get a good gauge of his talent at this point. The 2nd squad needs JR, and if I'm not mistaken, it's our bench squad that has been keeping us in the games in recent history. Why would you mess with that?
We have a talented and relatively balanced starting 5 with Jones at the 2, they just need to run more effecient offense with what they have. We have Billups, Melo, and Nene doing the scoring. This is more of a coaching problem than a personnel problem.
by Robin Z on Dec 22, 2008 8:46 AM MST reply actions
by grantarchy on Dec 22, 2008 9:04 AM MST reply actions
Of course not! JR was a restricted free agent during the off-season and the only team to offer him $ was Denver. Fans love him, basketball insiders hate him. Read the most recent game day notes for the Nuggets. It breaks down Melo's points per 48 minutes by each teammate. When AC is on the floor, Melo averages 41 PP48. When JR is on the floor it is a jaw dropping 16 PP48. If we put JR in the starting lineup, you might as well trade Melo or put Melo on the bench.
Fans love to point out JR's great playoff games. One poster even referred to him as the MVP of playoffs. MVP of an 0-4 playoff run? Every game that JR scores big points, the Nuggets lose. Period.
JR is a lot of fun to watch. He is very athletic and can make some amazing shots. That makes him popular with fans, but that doesn't mean he fits in with a team concept of winning basketball.
by Anonymous on Dec 22, 2008 9:35 AM MST reply actions
And PLAY BALKMAN!!
by Eric B on Dec 22, 2008 10:10 AM MST reply actions
'Karl said one reason Renaldo Balkman's play has been erratic is he remains behind as a result of missing preseason time with injuries. "He doesn't know the plays (at power forward)," Karl said. "That's the problem. . . . I want to play him, but there's another end of the court (offense)."'
While this may be true, he was certainly integrated enough to start effectively for two games. While his shot sucks, he's been able to cut to the basket, and get easy points. I'm sure Karl's offense can't be so difficult to learn, since the offense doesn't run plays a lot of the time. Which leads us to-
'Anthony has averaged only 11.5 points the past two games while shooting 8-of-27. "I'd like to see him break out by running and trying to get ahead of the ball, and just getting easier basketball opportunities," Karl said.'
Basing an offense on getting out on the break will never cut it against good teams. It's similar to the constant switching on defense. It only works against teams with poor transition defense (or poor offensive efficiency with switching), and can be exploited. Also, encouraging Melo to get out on the break goes against also asking him to rebound more.
Karl also says he's not considering starting JR, so don't get your hopes up. I don't really care about starting JR, but he needs to get around 30 consistent minutes every game. The vast majority should come paired with Chauncey.
by Cessair on Dec 22, 2008 10:40 AM MST reply actions
by samiam on Dec 22, 2008 11:27 AM MST reply actions
by John on Dec 22, 2008 12:11 PM MST reply actions
by Matthew on Dec 22, 2008 12:50 PM MST reply actions
I know I'm personally not giving him a free ride. The only defense that I have had for Karl in the past is that the players have been horrible, lazy, ignore all fundamentals, shoot first, non-hustling prima donna jerks! You say Karl has done NOTHING, but to me, it's the players who have done NOTHING and would have done NOTHING with Red Auerbach and Larry Bird as their coaches!
GK really had to have a leader ON the floor to judge him, and we have had NO-ONE like that since he has been here. NO-ONE. We have had all star talent, but without a floor general, or any frigging one of them stepping up to lead by example, it means nothing.
BUT now that he has CB, I think all bets are off. I really do. Karl and Co. have to do well - there are absolutely no excuses left to not **minimally** make it out of the first round.
by grantarchy on Dec 22, 2008 12:56 PM MST reply actions
(come on and chant along)
START JR! START JR! START JR!
by Harris on Dec 22, 2008 4:29 PM MST reply actions
Billups did a good job taking GK instructions...pass..pass...shoot.
..shoot..If somethings go wrong billups sucks...GK sucks.....common people this is game of mistakes...lets support DN
by Anonymous on Dec 26, 2008 2:30 AM MST reply actions
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