Looking into the costs of the Billups/McDyess trade...

by Andrew Feinstein on Nov 3, 2008 9:31 PM MST Comment 31 comments

Now that the dust has settled from the shocking news that the Nuggets shipped future Hall of Famer Allen Iverson to Detroit for former Nuggets Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess...oh, and "center" Cheikh Samb (who?)...I thought we should break down what this is going to cost.

While most Denver Stiffs readers seem to be overhwhelmingly in favor of the trade, a few have commented or emailed saying that this trade makes no sense on the balance sheet. The argument being that the Nuggets were going nowhere with AI and will go nowhere with Billups, so why not just ride out the season with AI and get the cap space when his $22 million contract comes off the books?

I understand where these readers are coming from. But the problem with this argument is that even with AI's $22 million salary off the books, the Nuggets were still due to pay about $57 million in salary in 2008-09, approximately $1.7 million less than the NBA's cap for this season. In other words, even in a post-Iverson era, the Nuggets were in no position to attract a free agent point guard next summer. And given that the roster is already saddled with Kenyon Martin and Nene's ridiculous contracts, plus Carmelo Anthony's max contract, they actually did us fans a favor by putting together a team that on paper should be more than just competitive for this season and next.

I don't know if the Kroenke Cronies looked at the trade this way, but while you owe K-Mart a ghastly $46.1 million over the next three seasons anyway, you might as well make the team as good as possible. K-Mart may not be worth $46.1 million, but he's talented and physically gifted enough that on team already featuring Melo, Nene and J.R. Smith will keep the Nuggets within playoff contention. And I don't know about you, but I'd rather see a team that consistently makes the playoffs where anything (in theory) can happen than follow a team that consistently finishes with the 13th or 14th pick. Especially if that team commits to defense and has a deep bench.

The black financial cloud looming, however, will be in 2010-2011 when the Nuggets will owe Melo $17.1 million, K-Mart $16.5 million (assuming he takes his player option which of course he will), Nene $11.4 million and Billups $13.2 million. That's $58.2 million in salary right there for just four players, two of whom (K-Mart and Billups) will be over 33 years old.

Taking into account how cash-strapped the Nuggets will be down the road, I still like this trade. It maximizes the Nuggets potential to win this season and next, and if the team fails to go deep into the playoffs in 2009 or 2010, the Nuggets can rebuild around Melo, Nene and J.R. Smith in 2011 who will be only 27, 29 and 26 years old, respectively. And who's to say that either K-Mart and/or Billups' expiring contracts in 2010-2011 won't be attractive to someone?

Now if George Karl could just get these players integrated and playing well together, we might be in for a surprisingly successful season.

One can only hope.

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Thanks for this, Stiffs. As much as I admire AI, he wasn't a good fit with this team of unstructured, undisciplined players. He's a wild card whose best fit is with a bunch of structured disciplined players around him. He plays off and against best with that structure in place. Re-watch the year the 76ers went to the play-offs. He was the guy playing off and against Larry Brown's structure. And it worked. But when you have a Melo, Kenyon, and JR playing the same type of game, it doesn't work because it's playground.

Chauncy, at this stage of his career, is a stablizing, structured player. Hopefully, they can convince McDysess to stay. With those two guys, we can do damage, and I'm an excited fan again.

by DeAngelo Starnes on Nov 3, 2008 10:44 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

The Rocky Mountain News is reporting that Rex Chapman has said that Dyess' will be staying in Denver. Which is good.

On a side note. Didn't Denver have that 10 Million dollar trade exception from the Camby deal. If so, why was Cheikh Samb and Antonio McDyess required in the deal also?

by andrew fisher on Nov 3, 2008 11:00 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

"I understand where these readers are coming from. But the problem with this argument is that even with AI's $22 million salary off the books, the Nuggets were still due to pay about $57 million in salary in 2008-09 ... I don't know if the Kroenke Cronies looked at the trade this way, but while you owe K-Mart a ghastly $46.1 million over the next three seasons anyway, you might as well make the team as good as possible"

More precisely, the K-Mart contract means you can never get far enough below the cap to get free agents.

The fact that Billups' contract expires the same summer as K-Mart's was almost definitely crucial in Denver's thought process. Since there will be no financial flexibility until the summer of 2011, they are trying to lock in a competitive team in the meantime.

Essentially, in the absence of lots of good players on their rookie contracts, K-Mart's contract dooms the Nuggets either to a ceiling below the elite or to paying the luxury tax. And ownership seems to have chosen.

It'll be interesting to see if they can keep Kleiza out of Europe. And I'll continue to aver that Nene's contract is not ridiculous - I think other teams would have no problem in taking that contract off the Nuggets' hands...

by Petey on Nov 3, 2008 11:04 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Andrew F makes a good point (genious Aussies :P). What about the trade exception? Then they could have just traded AI for Billups couldn't they?

Unless they are saving it for another trade. Unlikely though, that would mean even more $$$.

Plus then McDyess wouldn't have anything to worry about.

Doesn't make sense to me.

by Julian from Australia on Nov 3, 2008 11:21 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

On a less important issue, will Billups take back no. 4 that he had last time in Denver and K-Mart back to 6? Will he take 1 and JR back to 23 a year early? Or will he go for something completely different. 3 & 5 are up for grabs now. See I worry about big issues.

***BTW why does JR (or any player for that matter) have to wait a year before they can change numbers? Yet when a trade goes down, they can shuffle around? Eg. D Johnson went to 8 as soon as AI turned up.

by Julian from Australia on Nov 3, 2008 11:24 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

hey julian add me on msn man. be cool to have someone to talk nuggets hoops and essendon footy with hahah

andoi_25@hotmail.com

by andrew fisher on Nov 3, 2008 11:43 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

"Didn't Denver have that 10 Million dollar trade exception from the Camby deal. If so, why was Cheikh Samb and Antonio McDyess required in the deal also?"

Two problems here.

1) Denver's trade exception allows it to take back more salary. It doesn't allow Detroit to take back more salary, which an Iverson/Billups trade would have involved.

2) A trade exception can't be combined with a player. It has to be used alone.

So, the trade exception could have allowed the Nuggets to acquire either Billups or McDyess for a draft pick, but it was of no possible use in the Iverson deal.

-----

Think of it all this way, Denver:

You've traded Andre Miller and two late first round picks for Chauncey Billups.

Is that a good deal for the Nuggets? Yup.

by Petey on Nov 3, 2008 11:54 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

oh yeah thanks for that petey.

that's true. andre miller for chauncey billups pretty much. which i think is an upgrade.
but we can't really say much til we see them all on the court together! JR smith could see this as more shots to him and his irrational shot selection may return. melo and JR played extremely well together before AI came and andre miller ran the point. hopefully that chemistry can return with billups.

and i still can't see this team (or any!) going far with the system george karl runs!

by andrew fisher on Nov 4, 2008 1:43 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

I cant believe everyone is forgetting the most important question regarding being a Denver Nugget.

meaning

How many tattoos does Billups have?

by james b(seattle) on Nov 4, 2008 4:07 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

http://www.denverpost.com/paige

I just read the woody paige article above and he is reporting that GK still wont start JR. He will still start AC or maybe Dahntay Jones. If this is true I say ENOUGH! Mr Karl, put him in the starting lineup already!!! Let LK be the 6th man and see how he handles it. Why does GK hate JR?

by james b(seattle) on Nov 4, 2008 4:17 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

I am sort of disappointed seeing AI leave, however he is going to a new, better situation and I'm happy for him.
With the Nuggets, I want people to be careful. Billups is a system based PG. Detroit is a unique system, and he fit that system. Just because he's a pass first PG doesn't mean he will fit in.
In order for Billups to succeed in Denver, we need a solid, disciplined system...this comes down to George Karl.
I hope he steps up and really uses this team. We have what we need to be successful. Tomorrow will be the first test.

by Anonymous on Nov 4, 2008 7:15 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

-rant-

I heard about this trade last night. I actually got excited for a few minutes -- this was the first sign in some time that the Nuggets want to compete.

As of this moment, I can't find a source that says that McDyess is staying, but the Nuggets have Nene in a prominent big man role. You would think that its important to keep anyone over 6-7 who can tie his shoes and spell his own name.

My excitement quickly dissipated after I read this blog and stuff over at Nuggets Talk. The consensus is that the Nuggets are only slightly improved.

Here's the real problem, even among the Nuggets fans. Everybody has a losing attitude. Today you're talking about the salaries and the cap. You have deferred starting to rebuild a team that will compete for a ring until 2011. A person requires a degree in economics and a specialty in NBA Rules to evaluate the trade and the Nuggets future. You're talking like lawyers when you should be demanding that the Nuggets put out the effort every night to win games!

How about starting out by winning 50 games and the NW Division? Trying to do better than the 8th seed so we don't have to open with the Lakers?

But NO!!!! You're talking about the salary cap down the road. That, my friends, is the definition of a losing attitude. And it starts at the top. Kroenke doesn't want to pay the luxury tax? Gives away Camby and never talks to him about it? Can't resign Kleiza because he wants flexibility? This man is a billionaire, Wal-Mart shoppers. He is also a loser, no matter how much money he's accumulated. He tried to win once (by getting AI) but when that didn't work, he threw in the towel. He lets a triumvirate of dummies -- one of whom is trying to relive the glory days of the JailBlazers -- run the team because he can control these idiots. No Jerry West for him!

The Nuggets need to Win Now, treat every game like it counts -- because they do count, you know --not wait until they get some cap space in 2011. K-Mart makes too much money? At least he plays hard. A good start would be firing the fat-ass and getting a coach who gives a shit, not waiting for K-Mart's contract to expire.

-end rant-

by Dave on Nov 4, 2008 7:22 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

my new home:

http://truebluepistons.blogspot.com/

goodbye denverstiffs formerly known as firegeorgekarl.com.

nice knowin yah

by Anonymous on Nov 4, 2008 7:48 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Vote OBAMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by Eric K on Nov 4, 2008 9:38 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

You would think that its important to keep anyone over 6-7 who can tie his shoes and spell his own name.

I love it.

Is this why LaFrentz was never brought back in?

by joelsopinion on Nov 4, 2008 9:59 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Bottom line for me: I was having a hard time getting excited about the Nugget's season until this trade; now I'm back on board.

by JTR on Nov 4, 2008 10:37 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

i see a lot of people being very frustrated with the fact that jr doesnt start and understand the frustration. i want to see him start too. when i think about it more and look at other teams aka the spurs. how many games has manu come off the bench for them? we have all heard it before "it doesnt matter who starts the games as much as who finishes the games". even though ac gets a lot of pt at the end of games right now. he has deserved it because the last couple games he has been playing well. so we will see how it plays out. i still would love to see more jr.

by bring back rauf on Nov 4, 2008 10:52 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Julian, I have the answer to your jersey number changing question (and shocked i actually know this) A player can change numbers during the year while on the same team, its just not financially smart because the company which makes that players jerseys can demand compensation for the jerseys in warehouses which all have wrong numbers...or names, which is why Chad Johnson will wait until next year to put the Ocho Cinco on the back of his jersey. However, when a player is trade there are no pre-existing jerseys of that player with his no team, thus he is free to choose whichever number he wants that is available. If he wants a jersey number which is already in use by another teammate, then he must pay the jersey manufacturer the cost to replace the jerseys, however a guy like AI can afford something like that, so he will probably pay-off the jersey company and stuckey to get his #3 back..whew!

by Zachm219 on Nov 4, 2008 11:04 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Since I am neither a Nugget or Piston fan, I have to say that the trade works for both teams, but for now, it doesn't really change the environment of this current season.

The trade is great for the Nuggets short term, but they still aren't really that much closer to a championship. I love Billups, but he is not anywhere near the player a team needs to put them over the top. And it doesn't really help them for that monster summer of 2010.

The trade is great for the Pistons long term, because the Nuggets have effectively given Detroit the opportunity to pursue 2 high-dollar free agents in 2010--Bosh and Lebron, for example.

by chaplin on Nov 4, 2008 12:52 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I love this trade. Love it. Start Chauncey, JR, Melo, K-Mart, and Nene. Linas as the 6th man, AC as a backup point (where he's more than capable). It would be really nice if McDyess was willing to stay for a 3rd stint in Denver, but I've been reading that he's going to be bought out.

by Chris on Nov 4, 2008 1:07 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

First off, I just checked out the latest fantasy PER rankings for this season and Anthony freakin' Carter is ranked in like the top 10! WTF. Anyways I can't wait till Wednesday. I think, as much as we all love to hate George Karl, he hasn't really had the greatest lineup to play around with and it is important to him to have a classic lineup with a real PG to execute as well as some players who arn't gang bangin' thugs. I mean why else would he have kept AC in the starting lineup and favor Kleiza over JR for so long? Billups in going to transform this team into a well executing team that is disciplined and well behaved, or at least thats what I am hoping for. I have to say, this is the first time since 2006 when we aquired AI that I am actually really excited about the season. I just pray to God that McDyess quits being such a pansy and grows a pair so that he can help us out this season.

by Goldennugget on Nov 4, 2008 1:34 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I have hope that they'll find some sucker...errr...willing trade partner to trade Kenyon to by 2010-11. I'll also echo what Petey said and that hearing Linas' comments, he could be Euro bound by next off-season. Word.

by Commish CH on Nov 4, 2008 1:50 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I'm really intrigued with the McDyess situation. Hollinger has pointed out on ESPN that McDyess' best option might be to go to a whole different team. I would love to see the Nuggets talk him into staying with the team, but if that can't happen, we can trade McDyess player-for-player straight up. I'd like to see the Nuggets play hardball with McDyess and insist that he report to the team and not buy him out. I think the two best scenarios for the Nuggets would be to get McDyess to play for the Nuggets OR trade McDyess for a player that would meet a need that the Nuggets have (quality backup power forward / center). Buying him out would help financially, but now we are so much closer to being a middle-to-top tier team, that just one nice addition could really push this team towards the top.

by Brian on Nov 4, 2008 1:54 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I agree with the above. Force McDyess to report and then see what you can get for him straight up. Another aged big man like a Kurt Thomas, perhaps, or an unproven youngster like Joey Dorsey for example (hoping for a young guy that develops into a Brandon Bass type). basically a guy that wants to rebound and bang around in the paint and doesn't care about anything else.

by Anonymous on Nov 4, 2008 2:48 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Check out GK's interview about the AI trade on www.espn.com

He actually doesn't sound like a schmuck. He talks a lot about offensive schemes. Which is odd seeing as how I have yet to see anything resembling a playbook run offense.

Kinda disappointed he didn't sign off like Porky Pig...Gig-id-a gig-id-a gig-id-a That's all folks.

by joelsopinion on Nov 4, 2008 3:11 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Vote OBAMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by Eric K on Nov 4, 2008 4:23 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I think James b pointed it out earlier, but Kizla nails the problem on the head with this article:

http://www.denverpost.com/kiszla

I hate Kizla, but he's on point here. GK is the problem with this team, the same as he was in Milw and Sea. Until he goes, the Nuggs won't be able to get to the next level, no matter who they have on the roster.

by micb on Nov 4, 2008 5:01 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I love this trade for many reasons, but most of all because this is now Melo's team!
For the first time in 5 years, Melo is truly the "MAN" in Denver! It's on him- & rigt on time caus I think he's ready to take the wheel. Chauncey is the perfect compliment, along with JR & Nene! This is gonna be a great year!

by KaiserSoze on Nov 4, 2008 7:00 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

We should get McDyess to report then trade him to Golden State for Al Harrington who also is unhappy with his situation. I wish McDyess would quit being such a bitch though. So he got his feelings hurt a while back, big deal, this is buisness buddy. Also him and Billups are really good friends too.

by Goldennugget on Nov 4, 2008 7:31 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Oh yeah, and you're damn right I voted for Obama! We are about ready to win this thing baby!

by Goldennugget on Nov 4, 2008 7:33 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I think the costs were worth it, because although it has pretty much killed all cap flexibility till 2011 as you said, we will at least have a competitive team around until then. As long as Melo is here, we will be fine because he can be a one-man team if he has to, and besides, J.R ain't goin anywhere anytime soon either.

by Jack on Nov 4, 2008 11:20 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

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THE STIFF LIST (as of 2/7 by Andrew)

STIFF #1: THE FUTURE OF THE NBPA
If the NBA owners opening proposal for the new collective bargaining agreement is any indication, we're heading for a lockout in 2011 and after that, smaller contracts, smaller salaries and less revenue shared with the players.

STIFF #2: THE CLIPPERS
After correctly kicking Mike Dunleavy upstairs and rightly installing Kim Hughes as head coach, why are rumors of Isiah Thomas joining the Clips circling around already?

STIFF #3: THE EASTERN CONFERENCE
Rumors of the re-birth of the Eastern Conference have been greatly exaggerated. Yes, the Cavaliers are awesome but the sixth playoff seed might be sub-.500. And do you think any of the West's top six teams fear the Celtics, Magic or Hawks? No chance.

STIFF #4: ANKLE INJURIES
First Carmelo Anthony. Then Chauncey Billups. And now possibly Arron Afflalo? Tape those ankles up, dammit!

STIFF #5: NEW JERSEY NETS
4-46 and losers to the lowly Pistons on Saturday night. But Lawrence Frank was the problem, right?

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