Last week's Eastern Conference Preview was met with very little controversy. I suspect the reaction to the Denver Stiffs Western Conference Preview will be much different...
1. LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Outlook: For anyone who read my 10 Reasons Why I Hate Lakers "Fans" post during the playoffs, you know how much it pains me to predict this. But with Andrew Bynum returning to an already deep, talented, disciplined, tall and now hungry team, I just don't see anyone beating them out in the West. Can you imagine the Nuggets' front line of (note their actual heights, not listed heights) Carmelo Anthony (6'8"), Kenyon Martin (6'8") and Nene (6'9") going up against the Lakers' Bynum (7'0"), Paul Gasol (7'0") and Lamar Odom (6'10")?
Vs. the Nuggets in 2007-08: 7-0 - including four total ass-kickings at the Staples Center. When seeing the two teams go head-to-head, it was hard to believe that the Nuggets finished just seven games off the Lakers record last season.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2008-09: In their home opener and Carmelo Anthony's return from a two-game suspension, the Nuggets face the Lakers on Saturday, November 1st. They meet again in LA on 11/21, in Denver on 2/27 and in LA on 4/9.
Six Degrees of Nuggets: The obvious connection is George Karl's son, Coby, who played sparingly for the Lakers last season and is back in camp this year. But with Trevor Ariza healthy, Sasha Vujacic re-signed and Sun Yue in camp, Coby may be the odd man out. Don't be surprised if he's a Nugget by season's end.
2. NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Outlook: The Hornets won't sneak up on anyone this year, but the addition of former Nugget and two-time NBA Champion James Posey should keep them at the top of the conference.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2007-08: 2-1. As pointed out on this blog back in April, the Nuggets played particularly bad on the road against Western Conference teams who played as "a team" in 2007-08, as evident in two easy wins for the Hornets in New Orleans.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2008-09: In Denver on Thanksgiving night (I've already asked to be excused from Thanksgiving dinner but when your 97 year old grandmother is coming to town to see you, apparently this request is off the table), at New Orleans 1/28 and 3/25.
Six Degrees of Nuggets: Ryan Bowen - a symbol of the hard working, always hustling, 17-win 2002-03 Nuggets - will be entering his ninth NBA season and second straight with the Hornets.
3. HOUSTON ROCKETS
Outlook: With the addition of Ron Artest, Houston will be the sexy pick by a lot of NBA pundits to beat out the Lakers and Hornets and win the West. This might happen in the playoffs, but unless Artest is a miracle doctor who can cure any and all injuries (and I suspect he's not), there's no way the Rockets get 82 games out of Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. The key to Houston's success will be having Artist, Yao and McGrady all playing together for the last 20 games of the season leading into the playoffs, and then they could be really scary.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2007-08: 2-1. Like New Orleans, Houston easily dispatched with the Nuggets in both of their home games.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2008-09: In Denver 11/30 and 3/9, at Houston 12/16 and 1/19
Six Degrees of Nuggets: The Rockets are tied with the Raptors for having the most former Nuggets as assistant coaches with All Intangibles Team member T.R. Dunn and Elston Turner.
4. UTAH JAZZ
Outlook: The Jazz stood pat in the offseason and will thus repeat last season's performance: another division title and another second round loss.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2007-08: 3-1. People seem to forget that had the Nuggets beaten the Jazz in Denver on February 6th, the Nuggets would have been just one game behind their division rival. Instead, Utah never again ceded their division lead even though they won just four more games than Denver.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2008-09: The Denver Post's Woody Paige has already called out Utah as the team to beat for the Nuggets this season, and he's probably right. The teams face off on opening night in Utah (sans Melo for the Nuggets), and meet again in Denver 1/25, at Utah 2/6 and again in Denver 4/2, with just a few games left on the schedule.
Six Degrees of Andrew: I had the pleasure of meeting Masha Kirilenko, Andrei's wife, earlier this year. Not only is she attractive and famous in her own right, she's very approachable and down to Earth. Now if she could just get her husband to eat more...
5. SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Outlook: The Spurs are all-too-often written off as old and out of touch, only to come back and make us all look like fools for underestimating them. But I don't see them overcoming Manu Ginobili's recent rash of injuries and an offseason in which no improvements were made to the roster.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2007-08: 2-2. Probably because they've met in the playoffs twice in recent years, the Nuggets played with a high level of confidence against the Spurs, including a gut-wrenching 107-103 loss in San Antonio two nights after losing by 27 in Salt Lake City.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2008-09: At San Antonio 11/19, in Denver 12/4 and 2/3.
Six Degrees of Nuggets: Like the Jazz, the Spurs rarely deal with the Nuggets or pick up ex-Nuggets on their roster. The most recent ex-Nugget to be a Spur was DerMarr Johnson, but unlike the Nuggets who hung on to Johnson for a few seasons, the Spurs cut their ties with the inconsistent shooting guard soon after signing him.
6. PHOENIX SUNS
Outlook: After watching Denver beat Phoenix twice this preseason, a lot of people are writing off the Suns. I don't like the Suns chances of winning a playoff series, but they have too much talent to miss the postseason altogether.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2007-08: 2-2. In both games at Phoenix, the Suns put up at least 130 points (neither game went to overtime). And that was with Marcus Camby!
Vs. the Nuggets in 2008-09: At Phoenix 12/20 and 3/23, in Denver 1/15.
Six Degrees of Nuggets: The Nuggets' mascot, Rocky, joined the Suns' mascot, the Gorilla, as a Mascot Hall of Fame inductee this past summer. For what its worth, any NBA expert will tell you that the top two mascots in the league are Rocky and the Gorilla, but Denver Stiffs - not surprisingly - gives Rocky the edge.
7. PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Outlook: Most Nuggets fans remember coach Karl's tearful post-sweep press conference during which he whined about the Western Conference getting even tougher and sighting the Trailblazers as just one example. I won't cry about it like Karl did, but I will state the obvious: Portland is going to really good this season and will likely surpass the Nuggets.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2007-08: 2-2. In one of the Nuggets' guttiest performances, they beat the Traiblazers in overtime in Portland as the playoff race was heating up.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2008-09: The Nuggets and Trailblazers play a home-and-home in Denver 12/22 and at Portland 12/23. They meet again in Denver 3/5 and finish off the entire season at Portland 4/15. Knowing this incarnation of the Nuggets, that last game will be a must-win for Denver to make the playoffs.
Six Degrees of Nuggets: One of our favorite recent ex-Nuggets, Steve Blake, may very well be the starting PG on the Trailblazers again this season. And another ex-Nugget, Raef LaFrentz, will get paid $12.7 million by the Trailblazers this season, the last of his absurdly large contract.
8. DENVER NUGGETS
Outlook: Yes, I'm drinking the Nuggets' Kool-Aid and am predicting them to make the playoffs for the sixth consecutive season. I'll get into this more in the upcoming Nuggets season preview, but here's a quick synopsis of the bold assumptions I'm making to justify the Nuggets sneaking into the postseason: 1) The loss of Marcus Camby can be somewhat offset by a healthy season from Nene and K-Mart. 2) The loss of Eduardo Najera is overcome by the additions of Renaldo Balkman and Chris Andersen. 3) The Mavericks made a disastrous gamble by trading for the overpaid, overrated and aging Jason Kidd, and will be worse off for it this season. 4) The Camby giveaway combined with a refusal to re-sign Najera and Allen Iverson were indictments on George Karl as coach, and this will inspire Karl to give us a better effort than we've seen recently. 5) The Nuggets seem to perform better when the NBA punditry counts them out, rather than pick them to be successful. 6) Neither the Clippers nor the Warriors upgraded themselves enough in the offseason to vault into the playoffs.
9. DALLAS MAVERICKS
Outlook: Within just a few seasons, the Mavericks have morphed from a young, deep, flexible team into an expensive, old and not-so-deep squad. Look for a season-long, three-team playoff race for the seventh and eighth seeds between Portland, Denver and Dallas, with the Clippers being in the mix, as well.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2007-08: 1-2. The Nuggets had the Mavericks' number last season, taking one of two in Dallas and beating the Mavericks handily in Denver.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2008-09: The Mavericks come to town for the Nuggets second home game on 11/7, they meet at Dallas 12/15, back in Denver 1/13 and at Dallas again 3/27.
Six Degrees of Nuggets: It feels like decades ago, but just six years ago a single trade forever transformed the Nuggets and the Mavericks when Kiki Vandeweghe shipped LaFrentz, Nick Van Exel, Tariq Abdul-Wahad and Avery Johnson to Dallas for Juwan Howard, Donnell Harvey and gay/television basher Tim Hardaway. Howard played in Dallas yet again last season, and is hoping to crack the Nuggets roster this season.
10. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Outlook: Even though they are a direct competitor of the Nuggets, I actually feel bad for the Clippers. By signing Baron Davis and presumably re-signing Elton Brand, the Clippers were going to be my pick to vault into the fourth or fifth seed in the West. Instead, thanks for Brand's...errr...David Falk's backstabbing ways, the Clippers will have to make do with Marcus Camby instead of Brand. The additions of Davis and Camby, plus Ricky Davis and rookie Eric Gordon, will make the Clippers fun to watch and a possible threat to make the postseason.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2007-08: 3-1. If the Nuggets did one thing really well last season, it was beat teams they were supposed to beat at home, including two victories over the Clippers.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2008-09: The much anticipated Camby vs. the Nuggets matchup comes at us right away in Game Two of the season on Halloween in Los Angeles. They play again in LA a month later on 11/26. Camby makes his Pepsi Center debut as a Clipper on 3/14 and again on 4/4.
Six Degrees of Nuggets: Nuggets fans everywhere - including me - were incensed by the Nuggets offseason giveaway of Marcus Camby. Trading Camby to clear cap space on a team going nowhere is one thing. But to trade an all-star caliber center for nothing - literally, nothing - is something else altogether. It's called laziness and bad poker playing (or, in terms that Kroenke Crony Mark Warkentien would better understand, bad chess). A more astute GM could certainly have received a first round draft choice for Camby, if not more.
11. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Outlook: Losing Monta Ellis to injury and suspension for the first 30 games of the season puts a nail in the Warriors' playoff hopes. Moreover, the Warriors are trying to sell their fans on Stephen Jackson being the true "heart" of the team that miraculously upset the Mavericks two years ago, but we all know it was Baron Davis. No Davis and an injured/suspended Ellis means no playoffs in Oakland in 2009.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2007-08: 1-3. By winning 48 games, the Warriors had their best regular season in 14 years. Unfortunately, they fell three games short of making the playoffs, as the Nuggets held the tie-breaker over them even if the Warriors had reached the 50-win plateau.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2008-09: At Golden State on 11/5, in Denver 12/13 and 3/28.
Six Degrees of Nuggets: There aren't any direct connections between this year's Nuggets and Warriors teams. But if the Nuggets want to look at a blueprint for potential success in 2008-09, they should look closely at the 2006-07 Warriors: an undersized, one-dimensional and yet supremely talented and athletic team with a shoot-first point guard that managed to pull off the greatest upset in NBA Playoff history (yes, over the Nuggets amazing 1994 upset over Seattle).
12. SACRAMENTO KINGS
Outlook: In spite of themselves, the Kings managed to win 38 games last season. Sincere credit for this goes to head coach and intern hater Reggie Theus, who seemed to get the most out of this team (especially at home). But other than drafting Jason Thompson and re-signing Beno Udrih, what exactly did the Kings do all summer?
Vs. the Nuggets in 2007-08: 1-2. The Kings' lone victory against the Nuggets last season almost put a fork in the Nuggets playoff hopes, when the Kings won in Denver 118-115 in early April.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2008-09: At Sacramento 12/6 and 3/8, in Denver 1/20 and 4/13.
Six Degrees of Nuggets: Rarely mentioned, but Theus technically finished his NBA career in a Nuggets uniform when he attempted to make an NBA comeback after spending two years playing professionally overseas in Italy and Greece from 1991-92.
13. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Outlook: Luckily for the Nuggets, Kevin McHale has proven to be one of the more inept GMs in the NBA over the years. But I actually like the moves he made this summer, including trading O.J. Mayo for Kevin Love and Mike Miller. The Wolves remain far from playoff contention, however.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2007-08: 0-4. The Wolves always made it interesting, but the Nuggets were able to hold them off in all four contests.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2008-09: In Denver 11/16 and 12/10, at Minneapolis 11/29 and 4/5.
Six Degrees of Nuggets: CU Buff Alum David Harrison campaigned to get himself in Nuggets training camp this summer, but instead had to settle with the Wolves.
14. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Outlook: After screwing over the city of Seattle, the Thunder ownership don't deserve any good fortune or karma whatsoever. That being said, its not the players, coaches or fans fault for this, and I suspect that overwhelming fan support will buoy this team to some surprise home wins. The Nuggets got caught napping on the Supersonic version of this team in Seattle last season and better not do the same this season.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2007-08: 1-3. The Nuggets clobbered - and I mean clobbered - the Supersonics in three out of their four matchups last season, including a 168-116 victory on March 16th, setting a franchise record for points scored. The Sonics got their revenge, however, and almost knocked the Nuggets out of the playoffs with a stunning 151-147 double overtime upset three weeks later.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2008-09: As noted above, every time the Nuggets play at Oklahoma City it will be a potential trap game. They make their OKC debut on 1/2, return on 2/4 and match up in Denver on 3/11 and 4/8.
Six Degrees of Nuggets: Former Nuggets Earl Watson and Joe Smith will be playing in OKC this season. This will be the ninth NBA team for Smith in 13 NBA seasons.
15. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Outlook: Whatever's worse than "god awful" is what the Grizzlies will be this season. We're all excited to see O.J. Mayo play, but he'll be the Kevin Durant of 2007-08: a lot of points, awful field goal percentage and a boat load of losses. The NBA should just move this team to Kansas City already.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2007-08: 0-4.
Vs. the Nuggets in 2008-09: In Denver 11/9, at Memphis 1/27 and 3/18. It's too bad the Nuggets don't get four games against the Grizz this season - we could use them!
Six Degrees of Nuggets: The original home of the Grizzlies - the Pyramid Arena - was the final big project overseen by Nuggets owner Sidney Schlenker, after Schlenker "sold" the Nuggets to Comsat, Peter Bynoe and Bertram Lee. Although Schlenker didn't commission the Pyramid's construction (he was brought in to help develop it), he's been - fairly or not - portrayed as the con man in charge of one of the all time boondoggles in arena construction history. Today, the Grizzlies play in the FedEx Forum as the Pyramid sinks into the ground and racks up considerable debt.
Coming next, the Denver Stiffs Postseason, Awards and Nuggets 2008-09 Season Preview...
Sunday, October 19, 2008
The Denver Stiffs WESTERN CONFERENCE Preview (and yes, I'm drinking the Kool-Aid!)...
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11 comments:
I've got pretty much the same list. Except i don't think the Spurs will be as good as you expect them to be. I know we say this every year, but i think this year they will actually play as old as they are. I think they'll still make playoffs though. I think Denver will finish above Portland. But i entirely agree with the final two or three playoffs spots being between Denver, Dallas and Portland and MAYBE even Phoenix or the Clippers potentially.
Hopefully being the underdogs will spur this team to glory! Melo is talking himself up excessively. I hope he is a man to stay true to his word!
The Thanksgiving game doesn't even start until 8:30pm Your Granny will be sound asleep before tip-off.
The kool-aid isn't all that hard to swallow. You're right about the replacements for what we lost - I hope! I think Balkman fits in much better with this team that Najera did and will fill his void and more. I like JR getting more minutes, I like us being a more running team (if that's possible) and I like the "nobody believes in us" aspect, which was rightfully earned and perhaps going to be the biggest spur (no pun intended) to this teams getting into and out of the first round of the playoffs this year - IF they have any heart and semblance of pride whatsoever... otherwise it could just be another "business as usual" season just as easily.
Of course, it all rides on the reliance on Coach Karl to be able to effectively manage this team - which is a long shot given his track record. If he can take this drastically different looking team (meaning: no Camby) and manage it's rotation effectively, we have the horses to compete with anyone in the west, possibly sans the Lakers.
But it's a looong season, and injuries and freakish stuff happens, so I wouldn't be surprised if this team finally "figures it out", and I wouldn't be surprised if we're duking it out with far inferior (IMO) teams for the 8th seed in the last week of the season again.
At this point I'm sayin 'go Nuggets!' and crossing my fingers that I'll be pleasantly surprised this year, but not losing any sleep over too-high expectations anymore.
I'm sure this is more or less nit-picking, but why did you mail in the last place picks for both conferences? It seems like you took the teams guaranteed to miss the playoffs, threw them in a hat, picked one out and said "I'm going to say, 'This team will suck so hard,' and leave it at that."
Why are the Pacers going to be so much worse than last year (36-46, 9th in the East)? I understand that other Eastern teams are expected to be more improved than the Pacers, but you honestly think Indiana is going to be passed by New York and New Jersey?
As for Memphis, I think they're far more likely to finish last than Indiana. However, Rudy Gay is probably going to be the go to guy instead of O.J. Mayo, and Ovinton J'Anthony will also have the luxury of never having to play the point, not with Mike Conley Jr., Kyle Lowry, and Javaris Crittenton in town.
Chris, yes you're nitpicking. LOL. A) His articles were damn near a Bill Simmons column about the Celtics in length, and B) it's all a crap shoot and we really only care to discuss Nuggets here anyway.
But you make good points. I don't hold Andrew accountable for having an indepth knowledge of the coaching tendancies, the stars injury history, or depth of the Pacers or Knicks benches though. We can let him off that hook considering this is a non-gratis role here...
Anyone noticed the combined number of games played by Camby and Najera on their new teams?
Right....none....
Maybe we got rid of 'em just in time?
A little update on the Pyramid in Memphis... in a desperate attempt to generate revenue the city has rented it out as a sound stage for film productions, most notably for Craig Brewer's interesting but deeply flawed "Black Snake Moan."
Good work on the season preview.
Good stuff as usuall by Andrew here. I can't argue too much, though too often than not the postseason positions are far different than anybody expects and this list looks a bit too similar to last year. I am more than drinking the Kool-Aide this year with the Nuggets, I am injecting it into my skin like a strung out heroin addict just hoping this time is better than all the other previous times. I really want to believe in this team so bad with all the talent we have and in fantasy drafts all over the place AI is still a top 10 pick while K-Mart and JR are being reguarded as some of the biggest sleepers in the draft! What this means with K-Mart I really don't know but what I do know is if he is able to play like he did earlier on in his career then we are in for a very pleasant suprise. To top that off our 2 most troublesome players of the past few years have both said it is time to grow up and step up thier leadership on the court. Now, if this is true, which I think it may be, then this could be the year we actually somewhat reach our full potential and maybe, just maybe, reach the second round of the playoffs. As for the rest of the west, this is how I see is playing out:
1. Houston - too deep, talented, defensive minded to be held back.
2. Lakers - Bynum is not Jesus, I know he is a great addition but every time I've seen him he hasn't impressed me at all!
3. Jazz - Brewer is going to have a breakout season and add that true athleticsism that the Jzz have lakced the past few years.
4. Hornets - I know this is everyones favorite team to pick but they have no bench whatsoever.
5. Suns - Still too deep and talented. Plus actually playing defense will do win you a lot of games.
6. Blazers - What can I say, this team should be a top the confrence for years to come but, this year they are still too young to do so.
7. Nuggets - Our bench is great, too much star power, Karl finally comes around...?
8. Spurs - Way too old, no upgrades in the offseason, Ginobli is out. The only reason I even kept them here is because they are the freakin Spurs!
9. Clippers - Should make the playoffs in my opinion, deep, underrated. Plus Gordon dropped 30 in a preseason game. Thats impressive.
10. Mavs - Self destructive, Kidd in no way fits that team, the way he plays is contrary to what the Mavs were taught by Avery.
11. Warriors
12. Kings
13. Wolves
14. Grizzlies
15. Thunder - haha.
Thats a bold prediction, and Im with Andrew about the Mavs, Clips and Nugs all fighting it our for the last few playoff spots, but I think the Clippers are too deep and play too good of defense to be on the outside looking in, but we will have to see.
I have to disagree with you on a couple Andrew but at least we see the top and bottom the same
1-Lakers-A healthy Bynum makes Pau a superstar, and Kobe is hands down the best player in the league
2-Phoenix-Yes, phoenix, I know everyone seems to hate the Shaq trade but quite honestly I believe Stoudamrie wins the MVP this year largely in part because of Shaq
3-Houston- As long as Artest keeps his nose clean and Houston stays decently healthy this team stands a chance to take it all
4-New Orleans- I think NO got the benefit of being an underdog last year, and while I'm a huge believer in CP3, not so much in the rest of the team
5-Utah- This is of course considering they don't trade Boozer, which they might.
6-San Antonio- SA is one year older, one year slower, still capable of winning a championship though
7-Portland- This team will be the creme of the crop in the west in about 3 years
8-Denver- This is a bit of a homer pick, my heart says nugz make the playoffs but my brain says they don't
9-Clippers- I'm not a beliver in Marcus Camby or Baron Davis but theres enough talent for them to make a run at the post seaon, also watch out for Eric Gordon.
10-Dallas_ Dallas is a team who is on the decline, largely thanks to Josh Howard
11-Golden State- If it weren't fr all Monta's problems I might have said this team would make the playoffs
12-Sacramento- Kevin Martin is really all they got, and he's a second option no a good team at best
13-Minnesota- I really like Al Jefferson, but I wish they would have kept Mayo, I think Love is a bust.
14-OKC- Durant proved, against the nuggets, that he is for real, plus Jeff Green isn't so bad either
15-Memphis- Memphis is at a loss and has been for sometime, Mayo may be the future but it's still a long ways off
I honestly think it's close to call. If I remeber last season, the playoff rankings weren't final until the last 10 games of the season; with less than 10 games separating seeds 1-8. An injury or suspension of a key player for maybe 5 games could shift the entire standings of a playoff contending team. Look back at last year...If Kobe had a minor ankle sprain going into the final two weeks and had to sit out a few games N.O., Spurs, or Houston would have been the #1 seed.
That's the past however. Anything is likely for this season. And with such a talented western conference it will come down to the wire.
I just really hope the Nuggs can move out of the 8 spot. It's a curse on this team.
8-Denver- This is a bit of a homer pick, my heart says nugz make the playoffs but my brain says they don't
Go with your brain.
When you're running a blog on the Nugs, Andrew, and you've got season tickets, drinking the Kool-Aid is just part of the job...
39 or 40 wins and out
Nene - no chance he plays more than 50% of the games
K-mart - lots of heart, no mid-range jump shot
Mr. Nobody - the point guard
The Answer - to the wrong question
Melo - he's "changed" again this year, he told us so!
George Karl - will sell his losing team down the river faster than you can say "J R Smith"
J R Smith - Nobody in the league tried to sign him, does this tell you something?
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