Does this mean J.R. will finally be the starter?...
by Andrew Feinstein on Sep 25, 2008 9:07 AM MDT
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Readers of this blog know that one of my least favorite current Nuggets is Chucky Atkins. He may be a fine person, but he's the antithesis of everything I like in an NBA player. He's a chucker with a career 41.5 field goal percentage, he's undersized but doesn't make up for that with tenacious defense and his assist-to-turnover ratio is 2.4 (that's right, for about every two assists he dishes out, he gives you one turnover to go along with it).Luckily for the Nuggets, Atkins missed virtually the entire 2007-08 season. That was $3 million well spent.
What was even more irritating for me last season was head coach George Karl and his media surrogates using Atkins' injury as an excuse for the Nuggets myriad of problems. And if you read Karl's reaction to Atkins' newest injury, you'll notice that the excuses are filing in already.
If the Nuggets are to have any success this season - and I believe they could - they need to play in an unconventional style and with more heart than they've exhibited in the past. Karl should not be married to the small-point-guard-starting-next-to-Allen-Iverson-plan, or any other plan for that matter. (Wait a second, has Karl even had a plan these past few years?)
In fact, throughout training camp and the preseason Karl should be trying out an Iverson / J.R. Smith backcourt to go along with the presumed Carmelo Anthony / Kenyon Martin / Nene frontcourt. With Linas Kleiza clearly capable of bringing firepower into the lineup as the team's sixth man - and Renaldo Balkman some much needed energy off the bench, as well - there's no need to banish J.R. to the back of the rotation anymore.
I would never wish an injury on any player (well, maybe Latrell Sprewell), but Atkins being out for all of training camp might actually be a good thing for the Nuggets, as it will force Karl to try out a new lineup or two. Something he should be doing anyway.
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by Brian on Sep 25, 2008 9:43 AM MDT reply actions
Anyway, AI should be the starting PG this year and just insert more plays into the system to free up Melo. AI and JR have great chemistry so they should be a great threat to anybody they play against.
by chillz on Sep 25, 2008 10:39 AM MDT reply actions
Even if Karl flexes his iron fist and doesn't start JR, hopefully he will be one of those 6th men (a la Ginobili, whom I loathe) that plays more minutes than the starter and is in to close games.
The more I think about what's wrong with the Nuggets the more i see how bad of a job G Karl has done during his tenure. How long until this is firegeorgekarl.com again? A week? A month?
If this team can't run a half-court set and make defensive rotations for the 5th straight year, i will be speechless. How is he still our coach?
by John on Sep 25, 2008 10:52 AM MDT reply actions
I wonder what he doesn't like about JR?
by joelsopinion on Sep 25, 2008 10:54 AM MDT reply actions
how bout signing a big point guard like shaun livingston. and pray his knee doesn't totally collapse lol.
and i'm pretty sure chucky atkins is more of a ball hog than JR smith is.
by andrew fisher on Sep 25, 2008 7:47 PM MDT reply actions
Ugh.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again:
FG% doesn't matter. What does matter is True Shooting Percentage.
And in Chucky's last healthy season, '06-'07 in Memphis, he had a TS% of 58%. That's very, very good for a guard, among the top ten for guards in the league that year.
Also, his usage rate was around the middle of the pack. He's no Ben Gordon.
In short, in '06-'07 he was a selective and very efficient scorer.
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There certainly were potential problems with an Atkins / Iverson backcourt, namely that neither player has height.
But it almost definitely would have produced better results than having to give Anthony Carter big minutes last year.
And given that the Nuggets big problem last year was having someone to reliably knock down open shots when Iverson and Anthony got double-teamed, having Atkins available really could have made a big difference. That would have applied no matter who the Nuggets' coach was.
by Petey on Sep 26, 2008 4:41 AM MDT reply actions
The best stat for 'ball-hog-ism' is usage rate. J.R.'s usage rate last year was 25.8. Atkins usage rate in his last real season two years ago was 21.4.
Hence, you're basically wrong.
(There is nothing wrong with having a high usage rate if you're doing good things, but it is what it is.)
by Petey on Sep 26, 2008 5:03 AM MDT reply actions
I love me some stats, and would like to hear an explanation of usage rate and true shooting percentage (i'm assuming this just factors in 3 point attempts and makes), if you get a minute.
Thanks.
Thanks.
by John on Sep 26, 2008 7:04 AM MDT reply actions
"But Karl has already F'd things up bringing in a low number rookie, and a worthless vet."
I know you it's easy to blame George for the team's personnel decisions, but he isn't the one signing free agents and working trades. In fact, if he had any control in that area, Marcus Camby would still be a Nugget. We can thank Mark Warkentien and Rex Chapman for those decisions.
The Chucky Atkins move I thought originally was a good idea, because they needed a point guard who could hit the 3 ball and JR was on the Nuggets crap list. Now, he's collecting money warming a seat on the bench. We need productive guys on this team, and a commitment to excellence (sorry for the plagiarism of the hated Raider's slogan). I don't know if I can watch another one and done playoff experience.
by Jon-Michael on Sep 26, 2008 7:48 AM MDT reply actions
make up as many stats as your intellectual mind wants. but i call it like i see it.
by andrew fisher on Sep 26, 2008 8:44 AM MDT reply actions
On the internets, no one knows what time zone you're in.
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"I love me some stats, and would like to hear an explanation of usage rate and true shooting percentage"
TS% factors in FT's & 3pt shots to give a true measure of how many points a player generates from each scoring attempt.
For example, a player like Iverson who gets to the line a huge amount will have a better TS% than his FG% would indicate. Similarly, a player like J.R. Smith who shoots and makes a lot of 3's also gets a better TS% than his FG% would indicate.
Marcus Camby, OTOH, has a very low TS% since he doesn't shoot 3's, doesn't get to the line, and doesn't have that good a FG%.
TS% is the single most accurate measure of scoring efficiency. I'm always amazed that the NBA doesn't include it in game boxscores.
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Usage measures how much of a 'chucker' or 'ball-hog' a player is. It's a measure of how often a player does something offensively other than just giving the ball to a teammate. It can be thought of as "using up a team's offensive possession", either for good or for bad.
The league's offensive stars all have high usage rates for this reason. LeBron had the top usage rate in the league last year, for example. Marcus Camby was near the bottom of the league in usage.
The really problematic players are the ones with high usage and low TS%. It means they're not doing well, but they're doing it a lot. Jamal Crawford's season last year is an example of that. (Although it is true that playing on a bad team like the Knicks can both drive down a player's TS% and drive up their usage, since they're forced to try to create bad shots because no one else on the team can do anything.)
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The core of the Nuggets' offense, as currently composed, is that they have two players - AI and Melo - who can put up a high TS% with a high usage rate. Or translated, they have two players who can score efficiently in volume.
The problem is that other teams will defensively key on AI and Melo by double-teaming and force them to pass or take bad shots. This is why having a high TS% and moderate usage player like Chucky Atkins on the floor could theoretically be very helpful. Atkins is a guy who doesn't need to shoot, but can knock them down when he's open because the defense is keying on AI and Melo.
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Here is a list of everyone in the association last year ranked by TS%. The columns are sortable, so if you click on the "USG-r" column, you can see them ranked by usage rate.
by Petey on Sep 26, 2008 10:23 AM MDT reply actions
Chucky's never been a pure point. He's always been more of a third guard who is a jack of all trades on the perimeter for 25mpg.
by Petey on Sep 26, 2008 10:49 AM MDT reply actions
by nickademus on Sep 26, 2008 3:22 PM MDT reply actions
Depends on your perspective. I'm an Iverson fan, so I hope the Nuggets use the trade exception on someone helpful and make one more run at it with this squad.
But were I a pure Denver fan, I'd say to trade Iverson if you can get anything young and good. The odds for making a deep run this year are very low unless Nene comes through like a hero. (And while Nene entering the building is possible, you just wouldn't want to bet on it an even money odds.)
"As we stand now we are praying for both NENE and K-mart to stay healthy"
I bet K-Mart stays healthy. The problem is that a healthy K-Mart at this point in his career is a barely adequate player.
The Nene story does have a certain Waiting for Godot feel to it, but I still have a candle lit.
by Petey on Sep 26, 2008 4:02 PM MDT reply actions
by andrew fisher on Sep 26, 2008 5:02 PM MDT reply actions
Iverson has played exclusively at the point for about a third of his NBA career, and he's played point in stretches during the other two thirds of his career, including while on the Nuggets.
An Iverson / Atkins backcourt of two combo guards would have been able to handle both point and shooting guard duties quite nicely on the offensive end. The problem was always going to be whether there was enough height there to defend on the other end.
by Petey on Sep 26, 2008 5:09 PM MDT reply actions
as much as iverson does play the PG... he himself and everyone collaborated with him proclaims how he is not that.
atkins/ai backcourt is small and like you said, a liability defensively.
by andrew fisher on Sep 26, 2008 8:53 PM MDT reply actions
http://dimemag.com/2008/09/mateen-cleaves-to-denver/
by ThaAnswer on Sep 27, 2008 12:13 PM MDT reply actions
This commment from "Joelsopinion" sums it up. You have to have no brain inside your head (which we know is highly likely in Karl's case) to not start AI at the 1 and Smith at the 2. I have been saying it from the start and I am going to continue to stand by my word, that is, if Karl doesn't start Smith that will end up being the worst descision he has made in his carrer as a Nugget. I cannot stress the importance of this enough. Carter is NOT a starting PG in this league and Iverson can play the point as good as anyone, so why would you not introduce an extra 15 ppg along with tons of other benificial assets in Smith to the starting lineup? It honestly blows me away to think that Karl might start Carter. But, from what I have heard, Karl is going to experiment with the lineup mentioned in training camp quite a bit, which he should.
On a totally different subject (the Camby trade) I got to thinking. Camby was never able to really fully function in a lineup with Nene, AI and Smith all in it at the same time. I can't imagine how good our team would have been this year had we kept Camby and started Smith at the 2. Our ideal starting lineup would have been
1. A.I.
2. J.R. Smith
3. Melo
4. Nene
5. Camby
That is one of the best starting lineups in the league not to mention you would have K-Mart Kleiza, Atkins, Balkman and Carter comming off the bench. That is a championship roster right there in our hands and we destroyed it! For what? Cap space? Are you kidding me!?!?
by Goldennugget on Sep 29, 2008 12:44 AM MDT reply actions
We had all these guys last year and it was another humiliating first round exit. What makes you think this year would be any different? Depending on what the Nuggets do with their cap space, I think the jury is still out. The roster you mention is not a championship caliber roster. It all looks good on paper, but fails miserably in the regular and post season. The rest of the West would eat that lineup for breakfast, much as they've done for the last 5 years.
by grantarchy on Sep 29, 2008 10:48 AM MDT reply actions
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