Friday, May 16, 2008

Setting the record straight on the Melo trade rumors...

Tell me if this story sounds familiar...

A high school phenom attends one of the most prestigious universities to play college basketball. In his freshman year, he guides his team to the NCAA finals. As a highly touted NBA rookie, he joins a team featuring other talented players, and as a man-among-boys he guides the team to 50 wins and a playoff berth - a place they didn't go the season before - but the team loses in the first round. Unfortunately, during his tenure with the team, the player - a Prima donna in his own right - clashes with his head coach; an old school veteran coach who's never won anything substantial in the postseason in spite of winning more than 57% of the regular season games he's coached. But since the coach has a good relationship with the dysfunctional owner and team executives, the team decides to trade the player way before his prime. In return, they get three number-one draft picks and a semi-decent role player.

The very next season, the team loses 56 games and the coach resigns after accounting for 31 of those losses to go with only 14 wins. For 13 consecutive seasons after trading away one of the best young players in the NBA, the team would fail to make the playoffs - the longest such streak in the NBA at the time. Meanwhile, the player - after a few more career hiccups due to his admitted immaturity - would go on to find postseason success elsewhere, guiding a division rival to seven consecutive playoff berths, including five straight 50-win seasons and five playoff series victories.

The year? 1994. The player? Chris Webber. The coach? Don Nelson. The team? The Golden State Warriors. And with the Warriors missing the playoffs yet again in 2007-08, you could argue that they still haven't recovered from their bonehead decision to side with the coach over the player when they traded C-Webb for Tom Gugliotta and three first round picks that year.

I'm bringing this up because I'm sensing the exact same thing could happen to the Nuggets should they trade Carmelo Anthony this summer. It's admittedly not a perfect comparison as Anthony has been a Nugget for five years now and he's not nearly the well-rounded player that Chris Webber was and never will be. Had he stayed healthy, C-Webb would've been a sure-fire Hall of Famer and one of the greatest players of his generation. But in his own right, Anthony is a superstar in the making, if he isn't one already. Looking past his postseason ineptitude, we mustn't forget that Anthony gives you 26+ points per game, ok, combined with a respectable 49% shooting percentage, ok, seven-plus rebounds, ok, and he gets to the free throw line a lot (how's that for a Hubie Brown impersonation?). Moreover, the once dormant Nuggets have made the playoffs in each of Anthony's five years in Denver. The only other Western Conference teams to make five consecutive playoff appearances in that span? Dallas and San Antonio. So I'm not sold - nor have I been - that the Nuggets have to trade Anthony this summer as many pundits and fans have suggested, and in some cases, demanded. I've simply said that IF the right type of trade were offered, the Nuggets should at least consider it. Anthony isn't in the LeBron/Kobe/Duncan "never trade him under any circumstances" league.

Going back to the C-Webb vs. Nellie analogy, there was obvious tension (as there has been in the past) between Anthony and Nuggets head coach George Karl during the postseason. It boiled over when Anthony now famously yelled "Just don't sit there!" at Karl during the Game 3 blowout against the Lakers in Denver. And after the game when Anthony said: "We quit. Everybody." referring to himself first as well as his teammates and the coaching staff, Karl vehemently denied that the coaches quit. (On a quick side note, I never understood why Anthony caught so much flak for saying "we quit." It's not like he said "they quit" - he readily admitted that he should be included first and foremost. Not only was Melo 100% right, but the team was noticeably more fired up for Game 4. How was this any different from Larry Bird saying "we played like a bunch of women tonight" after an NBA Finals loss to the Lakers over 20 years ago? Other than Melo being less misogynistic, of course.)

I have no idea whether or not there is irreparable inside-the-locker room dissension between Anthony and Karl going on. But if there is, and the Nuggets organization sides with Karl by shipping out Anthony, this would be a colossal, unforgivable mistake. As a sign of what might be coming, however, not only has Karl's job been pronounced secure, but the coach has already gone on record stating that any current Nuggets player could be traded this summer. Way to stand up for your star player and face of the franchise, coach.

Anthony is no saint and I will not even attempt to defend his penchant for making "poor decisions" (understatement) both on and off the court. Anthony still has a lot of growing up to do and has a long way to go to ingratiate himself with Nuggets fans again. But other young players have made "poor decisions" earlier on in their careers and rebounded successfully from them due to a combination of accepting self responsibility, disciplining themselves and receiving great coaching...as both C-Webb and even Kobe Bryant did (remember that whole Eagle County thing, everyone?).

As followers of this blog well know, George Karl has done absolutely nothing during his time in Denver (or, frankly, before that) to justify moving a player of Anthony's caliber simply because Karl is too inept to coach him properly. One of Karl's many failures as the Nuggets coach has been his obvious inability to put Anthony in situations to succeed on the floor. It rivals Mike Brown's complete and total failure to do anything with LeBron James other than have the NBA's most explosive player ever over dribble two feet behind the three point line for the first 15 seconds of the shot clock on every possession.

If the Nuggets want to trade Anthony this summer because a can't-miss-deal comes in that improves the future of the team, I'm fine with it. But to trade Anthony because Karl doesn't know how to coach him would set our franchise back to the Paul Westhead era, and we all remember how much fun that was.

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

"If the Nuggets want to trade Anthony this summer because a can't-miss-deal comes in that improves the future of the team, I'm fine with it. But to trade Anthony because Karl doesn't know how to coach him would set our franchise back to the Paul Westhead era, and we all remember how much fun that was".

^I agree with that. I think they should give Carmelo at least two more seasons (by then he will be considered a vet) before talking about shipping him off. And I think it would be fair to try him out with a new Coach to see if another Coach could get more out of him then what Karl has. I think Karl is a good Coach, just not the right Coach for this team or Carmelos continued development at this point. I think if they traded Carmelo, Iverson will certainly leave on his own and JR Smith will probably try to follow. I already think if Iverson leaves this Summer, the Nuggets won't make the playoffs anyhow this up coming season. I know Carmelo was responsible for them making the playoffs the first three years or so, but to me Iverson was the main reason they even made the playoffs this season in one of the toughest Western conferenses in recent memory. So to me, if AI leaves, they won't make the playoffs next year anyways. So either way, that organization should be careful of how they go about this situation with that team.

Also, I think Melo is a solid player..but I don't think it is too far of a stretch to suggest he has already reached his potential. I think he will polish his moves a little more in the next few years but thats about it, and maybe if they get a new Coach we can all see what else they can bring out of him. The guy is in his fifth year already, his peers that he came into the league with are light years ahead of him at this point, and we are not talking about their potential because we can already see what they are bringing to the table and then some. When they came into the league you already knew what players like Iverson, Duncan, Shaq and Kobe were going to be by their fifth years..you knew they were going to be special. And like them, you know what Lebron, D-Wade, D-Will and Chris Paul are going to be. Those are the players I am scared of when they hit their "prime". No one is scared of Carmelo. I just sort of feel like Nuggets fans are holding onto false hope and in a few years from now, will still be making excuses if Carmelo still hasn't reached his "potential". I think Melo is a solid player, an All-Star..but thats about it. He's not going to be one of those "once in a lifetime" type players. It takes a very special player with a certain type of attitude to become great. Carmelo just doesn't seem to have that X-factor. Its just not something that can be taught, either you have it or you don't. Ive seen fans come up with every excuse in the book for this guy. I've seen people blame Iverson for Carmelos lack of maturity and growth, when the fact is true great players don't allow other great players to "stunt their growth". Kobe never allowed Shaq (the better more dominate player at the time they played together) to "stunt his growth". Enough with the excuses already. I think people should just except him for what he is and move on. He's NOT a Superstar player and I think he can be part of a team that can contend..I just don't see him leading one. Which is fine. I'm just being more realistic at this point. If other Nuggets fans think Carmelo is going to one day wake up and turn into Lebron James..lets just say they better not hold their breath.

catalan said...

Wow, Andrew. You finally made a FAIR article about Melo. You nailed it on the head his time. Congrats.

Geerten said...

When I heard about the Melo trade rumours, I immediately had a gut feeling saying "Don't do this Denver". Great comparison to the CWebb story, Andrew!

And oh, everyone who wants to see Melo perform under a different coaching staff: just watch this summer's Olympics...

Chris said...

We can't trade Carmelo, unless, like it's been stated, is a can't miss deal. Of course, that is why superstars rarely get traded in the NBA, because you can never get value.

I've heard rumblings about a Chicago trade. Now, would I do Carmelo for Heinrich and Deng? Well, I'd have to think long and hard about it.

Of course, I'd rather not trade him at all. And not just because I have jerseys that would now need to be put on eBay. But because for his faults, he's a great player.

The stats are already out there. 24/7/3.5 or something along those lines. It's easy for us to be down on the Nuggets, but that is a solid year. Let's not lose sight of what we have because the team underachieved.

Could he better defensively? Sure. But he's still growing as a player.

Trade Camby. That's it. And maybe Nene too if you can get somebody to take his contract. Camby, for all his defensive accolades, is useless on offense. And Nene is hurt constantly.

blue said...

with the rules around trades in the NBA, the salaries have to match with 15% or something I believe, it's not like they can make a salary dump by moving carmelo. It would improve their cap position for the future if they got an expiring contract, but not in the current state...So, that being said, Stan the Man needs to think about whether he wants to pay the luxury tax for a team that will resemble the Knicks, if they let 'Melo go for draft picks and change.

Iverson wouldn't re-sign, although he wouldn't opt out, because he's not getting 21M from anyone else next season, there's just not the cap room available anywhere other than philly. So you get one more season of him (which honestly is all they're going to get anyway). Iverson's contract is a much more attractive and a tradeable asset mid season next year. If this team really wants to make sweeping changes, you trade Camby if you can because he's worthless, and trade iverson's expiring contract at the deadline next year for some help or cap relief.

and to the commenter who thought that iverson was the reason they made the playoffs this year, well, maybe that's true, but he's also the reason they went home after 4 games in the playoffs. He has lost a step, and doesn't create the mismatches he used to. And before he came here the nuggets were actually playing very well and ball movement persisted. Carmelo is still young enough to enhance his game with better passing and defense, iverson is who he is, and his game is not going to change.

Anonymous said...

This isn't just crazy, this is Bobby-Jones-for-George McGinnis crazy.

Moving Camby is a great idea, but Melo needs to remain on the team and the Nugs should do everything they can to add a true point and start JR at shooter.

They'll have to eat AI's salary, but they'll be able to move him mid-season to team seeking cap space for following year. In the process, they'll hopefully acquire a serviceable, d-minded center that can spell Nene.

I wish they could get rid of K-Mart, but he's not going anywhere. Best to hope for there is that he embraces role of gritty defender/ boards man and doesn't feel the need to cause trouble in the locker room or while on the pine.

grantarchy said...

First off, despite the media bringing it up, there's no way Anthony is going anywhere. Nuggets brass is not that stupid. I don't think that even Karl is that stupid, and really there's not a lot of value we could get for him anyways.

Second, let's stop with the "a player of Anthony's caliber" crap. Seriously, the guy can score but he's a liability everywhere else. He can't play defense, he is not a leader, he doesn't pass the ball, and he doesn't hustle. I agree with the sports commentator who said "what is the big deal about Anthony?" He has bad habits, BAD HABITS, and they are not going to magically become good habits with a new coach, a new team, anything. People act like he hasn't been given a chance, but the dude has been here 4-5 years now and he hasn't changed at all. Every year he might up his scoring average up, but it's same ol' same ol' everywhere else - no defense, no leadership, no getting his teammates involved, no hustle.

Lord Sam said...

Nice comparison with Webber and Melo's and the start of their careers! Does this mean George Karl is on the way out?

Since the Nuggets are staying pat as far as the head coach, do we really think that a trade is going to be made this offseason?

chargershed said...

I don't buy for a second that Carmelo has reached his potential. He is only 24 and really, what has he had around him? some posts compare him with Kobe, but did everyone forget that he just was named MVP for thr first time this year?(his 11th I believe) Isn't this the same Kobe that couldn't get his team past the first round or even in the playofs, and was demanding to be traded to a "contender"?(the Bulls? lol!!!) With the way Les Nugs are currently constructed, Melo will always be a defensive liability. He expends a ton of energy on the offensive side of the ball, because he is always guarded by the opponents best defender. He got some help on the O end with the AI trade, but, he has no one to get him the ball like he had with Dre Miller. So he has to create his own shot 60% of the time. AI is a great scorer, but his game is an iso game, where he dominates the dribble for the majority of the shot clock, dumping it off only when he can't get his own shot. AI isn't a good enough perimeter shooter to get the floor spacing that the Lakers give Kobe.

As far as Melo's peers being Light years ahead of him? Would Cleveland and Lebron even have made the Playoffs the last few years if they played in the west? Seriously? Even a healthy D-wade couldn't carry the mess that the Heat became this year, and it might be a few years before they snif the Playoffs, never mind a Finals appearance. These same players looked nearly invisable next to our man Melo during the Olymopic trials, who was easily the most consistently dominant player at that tournament.

I also believe the up-tempo game the Nugs play is slowly breaking down it's older players. Marcus was noticably slower on D rotations than in years past, (just watch replays of the first round series with the lakers to see him badly out of position all the time)and that's where a healthy Nene and (PG)Hunter might be the extra depth that Karl needs to get us over the hump. Another first round loss, however, and Stan the Man will gernade this puppy. THAT, you can take to the bank

Anonymous said...

@ blue

Give me a break. So now Iverson is the reason why that team lost all four games in the playoffs as well? Not the fact that the Nuggets don't seem to be 100% committed to playing defense as a whole or the fact that they don't seem to run any offensive sets other then iso's? Now all of a sudden because Iverson is on the team they have stopped ball movement? When he averages the most assists on the roster and 90% when Carmelo gets the ball in his hands he jacks up the shot? Did you even watch the series against the Lakers?

I find it funny that some of you want to cop out and claim Iverson has "lost a step"...yet he manages to out play everyone on the Nuggets roster. Interresting concept. Sorry he couldn't carry that team on his back to the second round in a flawed system. Iverson has average almost 27 pts and 7 assists this season. He leads the league in minutes played and lead that team in PPG, assist and steals. And is still one of the fastest players in the league. So do you care to explain exactly how he has "lost a step"...other then just stating it with nothing to back it up? So you mean to tell me within a season in a half of playing on the Nuggets he has lost so much of a step then what he was doing in Philly? Give me a break already. Its funny how some you use cop outs and want to blame that guy for everything under the moon..but want to praise Carmelo for everything possible..some of the most ridiculous delusional fans I have ever seen have been Nuggets fans.

As far as Carmelo still being young..no one cares about that at this point. All his peers he came into the league with are light years ahead of him and I don't see him catching up. A few years from now you'll be back making the same excuses. If that team knew they were not ready to win then they should have never traded for Iverson, that team doesn't have time to wait for Carmelo to grow up. They are just wasting some of those players time.

Anonymous said...

"As far as Melo's peers being Light years ahead of him? Would Cleveland and Lebron even have made the Playoffs the last few years if they played in the west? Seriously? Even a healthy D-wade couldn't carry the mess that the Heat became this year, and it might be a few years before they snif the Playoffs, never mind a Finals appearance. These same players looked nearly invisable next to our man Melo during the Olymopic trials, who was easily the most consistently dominant player at that tournament".

^ At this point Lebron and Carmelo shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentense. Lebron is two times the leader and player. D-Wade wasn't healthy and doesn't have the proper players surrounding him (as you made the excuse that Carmelo doesn't have the proper players surrounding him). You folks keep talking about the Olympics..that was like 2 or 3 years ago. Jason Kidd was the differense maker on team U.S.A this last Summer. Scoring points does not make someone a leader.

chargershed said...

As far as Carmelo still being young..no one cares about that at this point. All his peers he came into the league with are light years ahead of him and I don't see him catching up. A few years from now you'll be back making the same excuses. If that team knew they were not ready to win then they should have never traded for Iverson, that team doesn't have time to wait for Carmelo to grow up. They are just wasting some of those players time.

^HUH? Let's see...Darko, Heinrich, Bosh, Diaw, Walton, T.J. Ford, Ridenour, Barbosa, Kaman, THESE ARE THE GUYS WHO ARE "LIGHT YEARS" AHEAD OF CARMELO??!!?? Pah-lease... West has CP3, D-Wade is not light years ahead of Melo and their are a bunch of 'Melo's "peers" that aren't even in the league. Lebron is a more complete player than 'Melo right now. Cleveland is Lebron's team, Is Denver 'Melo's team? or AI's? or coach Karl's?? If we don't know, do the players? Teams take chances, some work(Pau to the Lakers) some don't (Kidd to the Mavericks)and some do nothing( AI to the Nuggs, Shaq to the Suns) The Nugs didn't give up a whole lot to make the change. They won 50 games with a bunch of injuries to critical role players. I say, lets see what happens if they can stay healthy.

Anonymous said...

^"HUH? Let's see...Darko, Heinrich, Bosh, Diaw, Walton, T.J. Ford, Ridenour, Barbosa, Kaman, THESE ARE THE GUYS WHO ARE "LIGHT YEARS" AHEAD OF CARMELO??!!?? Pah-lease... West has CP3, D-Wade is not light years ahead of Melo and their are a bunch of 'Melo's "peers" that aren't even in the league. Lebron is a more complete player than 'Melo right now".

^When I said "Carmelo's peers" I named you the players I was talking about..no need to go on and name 500 other players..lets use commen sense. David West didn't need CP3 to give effort and play hard everynight. Also, he knows how to get invloved and help his team win when his shot isn't falling (which Carmelo doesn't, nor does he hardly get his teammates involved). YES D-Wade is light years ahead of Carmelo. Don't let Dwayne being injured this season fool you. You said Lebron is more of a complete player then Melo right now? Duh. He's also far more mature and more of a true leader.


"Cleveland is Lebron's team, Is Denver 'Melo's team? or AI's? or coach Karl's?? If we don't know, do the players"?

^^ Who cares who team it is..just win! Do you fans care about winning, or "who's team it is"? I really hope they don't care about that as much some of you fans seem to.

"Teams take chances, some work(Pau to the Lakers) some don't (Kidd to the Mavericks)and some do nothing( AI to the Nuggs, Shaq to the Suns) The Nugs didn't give up a whole lot to make the change. They won 50 games with a bunch of injuries to critical role players. I say, lets see what happens if they can stay healthy".

^I agree with that. The point is that when you make a trade for players like Iverson or Shaq or Pau or J-Kidd..you have to have a plan in place. The Lakers had a plan when they got Pau (they knew they would run the triangle). The Nuggets seemed to have traded for Iverson with no plan. He's not the type of player you can just add to a team with no plan. They traded away their PG for a combo/SG and didn't address the PG situation. Instead some fans just came under the assumption that Iverson was traded there to distribute the ball every single time he gets it and to play the PG position to replace Andre Miller..thats not why he was traded there. Its that FO responsibility to have the proper players there for Carmelo and Iverson. They have failed in some of those areas. When I look at Carmelo and Iverson I don't think that they can't work out (as you stated they won 50 games) but without the proper offensive and defensive sets and discipline, they won't go far together. I would like to see what happens if everyone is healthy as well, but if they continue to play the same way with the lack of passion that some of the players have (Melo falls under that area very strongly at times) along with the lack of structure that team has, then the results would be the same no matter what players are added and/or subtracted from the team. We shall all see.

Anonymous said...

Dino Costa was the commentator you refer to and I believe that Anthony should be traded because I feel he will continue to screw up in various ways off the court.
On the court he is a scorer and a scorer in an offense where someone with less talent than him would be able to collect points.
The Nuggets should seek a trade of both Anthony and Iverson and redo this team in a new image.
Just too bad we can't do it with a new coach though.

Nataly said...

Yeah, exactly. Carmelo Anthony is a young player, and he has a lot of growing up left to do. Everyone makes mistakes, right. So, he'll learn, and become a better player as he gets older. I don't want Carmelo Anthony to be traded either.

If the Nuggets trade Anthony away, then they're basically letting Allen Iverson do everything like he did in Philadelphia. As much as I hate accepting it, Iverson is no longer the kind of player that can drop 40 points consistently every game.

Anyways, I want Anthony to stay for a few more years. By then if he hasn't become a better player, then the Nuggets can trade him. Right now he's still young, and he can only go up from here.

Chad said...

I have a couple of different trade scenarios that might be intriguing.

1) Melo, Atkins to Philly for Igoudala, Miller. Lets face it, Camby can't do it all on defense, and Philly has been known to play tough D. No one in the past 10 years has ran the point for the Nuggets than Miller. Melo is a cancer, and Atkins was a bust in the first year. This trade gives about even value for Melo, and strengthens the defense.

2) Melo, Nene, and Atkins to Washington for Arenas and Jameson. Washington needs to find a way to get value out of Jameson because he wants out, and if he leaves then Arenas is going to opt out as well. Arenas gives the Nuggets an outside threat, and this trade provides roughly equal value for both teams.

I don't think that Melo is the answer in Denver, and the Nuggets need to dump him and his crazy contract before his stock drops further through his lack of effort, leadership, and off court issues. If we are talking about trying to entice AI to stay with the team during the coming season, Management needs to put a team on the floor that is capable of competing for a championship. It starts with strengthening the defesne, and being able to hit some outside shots. These trades would help greatly in improving these areas of weakness for the Nuggets.

Anonymous said...

Great post. Trading Anthony would by a HUGE mistake. Any team that would trade for him surely has a better coach than Karl who would squeeze all of Anthony's potential out, which would result in Denver looking even more moronic than we already do. The original title of this site said it all. If we get a good coach I wouldnt be suprised if we got a title but for now we are in the "Dark Days" of Denver basketball. Hopefully another disapointing season will catch the eye of the owner, who seems to be blind, and Karl's reign will end. But like I said trades won't solve the problem and Andrew has it dead on with this post. Trading Melo would be one of the biggest mistakes in Nugget history next to keeping Karl after this past season.

markp said...

I breezed thru the story quick and my source ( ha-ha ) who is part of Mello's home ( castle , I mean ) upgrades said currently all is on hold. If I missed anything recently that aready noted that, my bad.

Eric said...

Chad... I love this idea below. And to everyone who thinks Camby is some sort of problem for this team (possibly including Andrew here) give both Marcus and I a break. You mean to tell me that on a team that struggles defensively overall that we should drop a guy who has won and continually competes for DPOY? That's insane and not well thought thru... my 2 year old can do that math and see it's no good.

Anyway... Chad again, I love this trade idea. Recall before Arenas went down the Wiz were a legit force to be reckoned with. Agent 0 + Jamison as an oversized SF (scoring and defensive post presence) + Camby + K-Mart/Nene + AI at the point... Let's make it happen!

2) Melo, Nene, and Atkins to Washington for Arenas and Jameson. Washington needs to find a way to get value out of Jameson because he wants out, and if he leaves then Arenas is going to opt out as well. Arenas gives the Nuggets an outside threat, and this trade provides roughly equal value for both teams.

grantarchy said...

Regarding Lebron vs Carmello it's a silly comparison. If you switched Carmello for Lebron and put Carmello on the Cavs in the East they probably don't make it out of the first round over there just like they can't here. You put Lebron on this team with AI, K-Mart and the rest, I bet they finish with more than 50 wins and get out of the first round, at least.

Anonymous said...

I think before we blow up the team, we should get a new coach. Thats the number one problem right now is our coach is barely a coach, he just sits and sucks on cough drops and doesn't have any offensive or defensive schemes. Not that the players aren't at fault, but get rid of George Karl before we blow up the team. Until George Karl is done in Denver, then the nuggets will not make it past the first round. I don't care if you get any of the trades that are suggested, as long as George Karl is coach, we will be out in the first round every single year, if we even make the playoffs. Doesn't matter if you get rid of Melo, Camby, or AI, or keep the same team. Karl is the problem.

Anonymous said...

That Mile-High air must be working it's magic on some of you Nuggets "fans" as well as your team mngt. Mark my words, if you trade Melo, you will be making a COLOSSUL mistake! The article gives you a hint of what might happen, but i'm almost hoping you clowns do it, to say "I told you so"! Talk about taking things for granted? The Nuggets were NOTHING before drafting Melo. Period! No all of a sudden you're all willing to cut off your noses, to spite your faces? Idiots!

Lloyd said...

He's a lots of potential, not good to trade him.

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Johnny B said...

u idiot dallas and san antonio got out of the 1st round and there forwards rebounds way better than carmello the nuggets need 2 get rid of carmello and Karl they still iverson camby martin etc. they jus need a real forward thats likes to defend and rebound. ( thats what real forwards do)