Thursday, May 8, 2008

The Nuggets Offseason: J.R. Smith...

Throughout the offseason, DenverStiffs.com will focus on a player on the current Nuggets roster and propose what should be done (if anything) with him. With the NBA Playoffs still in progress, the draft lottery order yet to be determined and the free agency market still unclear (i.e. who will be opting out of their deals around the league), we will begin by focusing on players that are unlikely to be traded. Our first subject is J.R. Smith, the exceptionally talented if often troubled shooting guard who has spent much of his time in Denver in head coach George Karl's doghouse - including Karl's unacceptable and unprofessional announcement of "he's done" when referring to Smith's play after a 2007 playoff loss to the San Antonio Spurs. Way to encourage a 21-year-old kid, George.

Objectively the Nuggets third most talented player, Smith saw only 30 minutes of playing time twice all season in 2007-08. Once when he erupted for 43 points in a loss at Chicago, and again when he led the Nuggets in scoring when they lost to the Lakers in Game 4 and were bounced from the playoffs. In fact, Smith was one of the few Nuggets to bring his "A Game" into the playoff series with the Lakers, and his effort never waned regardless of each game's outcome. That playoff series, combined with Smith putting up double figures in scoring in each of his last 14 regular season games, has the Nuggets' brass and Nuggets fans everywhere thinking big things for Smith in 2008-09.
The Situation: Smith is a restricted free agent this summer. Meaning, the Nuggets can match any offer Smith receives from an opposing team. However, every dollar the Nuggets commit to Smith that goes over the NBA's luxury tax threshold will have to be matched - dollar for dollar - and paid to the league. With the Nuggets already clocking in with the NBA's third highest payroll, they're praying that no opposing team throws the bank at Smith. Of course, a rival Western Conference team might offer Smith a ton of money just to force the Nuggets to overpay for him (a la the Detroit Pistons offering Atlanta center Jon Koncak a ridiculous contract in 1989 knowing the Hawks would match it).
The Good: You hear this phrase thrown around a lot, but Smith has legitimate All-Star potential. Not only can he effectively shoot the three (he's a 40% shooter from behind the arc), but he might be the most purely athletic two-guard in the NBA, making him virtually unstoppable when driving to the hole. Just ask the Lakers' interior defense. Moreover, Smith is an efficient scorer. If he played 36 minutes a game, he'd be a 23 points per game scorer. On the intangibles side, he has infectious enthusiasm - evident by being the lead cheerleader on the Nuggets bench every night - and an obvious desire to be in the game at all times. As one NBA assistant coach once told me: "you always want a guy you have to dial down, not dial up." And Smith certainly fits that description. If you get a chance, I recommend reading Chris Dempsey's Denver Post piece on Smith's improvement and maturity this season.
The Bad: Typical of a teenage phenom who never played college basketball, Smith's shot selection and commitment to defense leaves much to be desired (understatement). Even though his enthusiasm is a plus, Smith can be overanxious in games resulting in unnecessary trash talking (as seen in this year's playoffs with Lakers star Kobe Bryant) or worse, altercations with opponents (as seen in last season's Madison Square Garden Melee, even though Smith didn't start the brawl). He's also a perpetual whiner with the refs, a nasty habit he's picked up from Nuggets superstar guard Allen Iverson. And finally, Smith has clashed with both coaches he's played for - Byron Scott and George Karl - each of whom has accused Smith of having a bad attitude. Smith's reputation among coaches was so bad, in fact, that when New Orleans traded him to Chicago (apparently at Scott's insistence), Bulls' head coach Scott Skiles didn't want him either. Thus, Smith ended up in Denver for two second round draft picks and Howard Eisley. At least we got him cheap!
The Ugly: Smith has been involved in an assortment of bizarre off-the-court incidents since coming to Denver. Within a five-month span last year, his best friend was killed in a car accident resulting from Smith's alleged reckless driving, and Smith allegedly assaulted a 22 year old woman at a Denver nightclub (the woman accused Smith of spitting on her twice and tearing her dress), resulting in a three-game suspension by the team. And according to Smith's Wikipedia page, his driver's license was once suspended five times in eight months.
The Verdict: Anyone looking to sign (or in the Nuggets' case, re-sign) Smith must take into account his off-the-court problems and penchant for clashing with coaches, while keeping in mind that he's not even 23 years old yet. It got little coverage in the press, but Allen Iverson said some remarkably revealing things about Smith in the Game 4 postgame press conference. I don't have the exact quote handy, but I distinctly remember Iverson saying something along the lines of: "J.R. has all the talent in the world. He just needs to realize that by making better choices in his non-basketball life will greatly improve his basketball life. And if there's anything I can do to mentor him, I will."
If given the right combination of stern discipline off-the-court (ahem, Mark Warkentien) and the freedom to expand his evolving game on it (ahem, Coach Karl), J.R. Smith could be the Nuggets starting shooting guard for years to come. But most importantly, Smith needs to heed Iverson's advice, start accepting responsibility for all his actions and get his personal life in order.
Assuming some of those things happen and the Nuggets can re-sign Smith for - say - $6 million a year or less, I say do it. As painful as this season was in the end, it'd be more painful to watch Smith torch the Nuggets wearing another team's uniform.

18 comments:

nataly said...

JR Smith can be a great two guard in the future for the Nuggets, but Allen Iverson said it the best: He needs to get past his off court issues. George Karl needs to be giving him more minutes. Iverson can play the point, and Smith can play the two. Andrew, maybe you can find the exact stat behind this but the Nuggets' were like 9-2or something when Iverson played the point. I remember hearing it during one of their games earlier in the season.

j2y2k3 said...

Well I think JR Smith should be the next Manu Ginobli. He really is a great offensive player and has the ability to drive defenses nuts, but that's because he comes off the bench. Whether or not he comes back he shouldn't be a starter. He has a score only mentality.
For the nuggets to use him properly they're gonna need a legitimate PG or a 6'7 or taller two guard who can pass, hit the three and play descent D. They should look for that kind of player in the draft, (I really see him being the next Bruce Bowen if the coach let's him play)

danjustin said...

You typed unrestricted free agent...you might want to go back and fix that before people get confused.

This is all the truth and i will be SO upset if they decide to let him go because of cap issues.

Anonymous said...

I think there'll be offers more than $6 million for Smith.

T-Mac had a great playoff series in Toronto and the Magic signed him to a max deal based on that series performance and his potential... similar case? I'd like to think so.

T-Mac was longer and a much better defender at the same point of their careers, but there'll be GMs who will not be able to resist his talent.

I think he will get a Jason Richardson's contract aka $10 mil per. And I do think the Nuggets will be faced with that difficult decision whether to match it or not.

And yeah, it should be "restricted" Andrew :)


- Snake -

Geerten said...

I absolutely love this kid! Even before he came to Denver I was amazed by him. Hope he stays. But I fear they are gonna have to choose between him and Ed Najera.

Question: would Doug Moe call JR a "stiff"?

Anonymous said...

If AI is the one that has "to mentor JR", God help us.

Andrew said...

Great analysis. I couldn't agree more with every word you said. except maybe the 'unrestricted free agent' part. Haha just kidding.

even Kobe Bryant said about J.R: "J.R. is a good young player. He was a lot to handle."

And that's a staggering statistic that he only played 30+ minutes twice! And in the times he did, he scored 43 and 26 points leading the team! What more can you say about that? It speaks for itself i believe.

I hope we re-sign him. He has so much potential. JR and Melo rippin it up for years to come with Nene being healthy on the post. What a future that would be.

Sign Eddy? I think Najera wants to stay in Denver. But JR is more of a priority. That doesn't mean give up on Eddy though! Great role player. I assume the next report will be on Eduardo maybe?

Peace

Andrew said...

here's a decent article about the nugget's and JR's options on him in the offseason

http://blogs.rockymountainnews.com/nuggets/archives/2008/05/jr_smiths_summe.html

Anonymous said...

JR could demand more than 6 mil, but it's gonna be on a desperate team. No good team will sign him for more than 6 and no one is gonna give him superstar money.
Let's be honest he is fun to watch but his overall maturation is very low. He is like Kobe is rookie season. I do think a big three of him ,AI and Carmelo is the only plausible future they have. The way the NBA is shaping now, if you don't have 3 dominant offensive players, you're not gonna be very competitive.

chillz said...

I really latched on to JR this season. He seemed upbeat and positive thruout the season. Undoubtedly AI's influence has helped because, Melo still has his own problems... Camby's never had those problems and AI has been there and learned and now is teaching JR. Which is why JR wants to stay, dispite George Karl still being coach. Breaking this team up without trying out new leadership would be the worst Mistake in all of Basketball.

The only change that is needed is getting rid of a George Karl and his 3-16 Playoff Record.

In retrospect. When AI was with the Sixers... Larry brown was 28-30in 5 Playoff appearences, with a lessor roster. Better coach leads to better play.

denverstiffs@gmail.com said...

Hi Guys!

First off, thanks for catching my bonehead error in referring to Smith as an "unrestricted" free agent initially. This is the price I pay for writing my big posts late at night with no editor! It's fixed now.

Secondly, to the reader above inquiring as to whether or not Doug Moe would call Smith a "stiff," here is Moe's exact quote from Mark Kiszla's March 16th editorial:

As Moe so eloquently put it: "Remember when (former Nuggets GM) Pete Babcock gave Blair Rasmussen that big contract back when I was the coach? He told me, 'Well, if you project his numbers over 48 minutes, he's the third-best center in the whole league.' And I told him, 'What, are you a complete idiot?' "

Moe, however, believes Smith can be an exception to the rule. If the Nuggets are to move up from ninth place in the conference standings, Smith will have to play a major role.

"That rule is for stiffs and no-hopers," Moe said. "J.R. has so much more talent than guys who are typical off-the-bench players. He's got starting talent."


Thanks again for supporting the blog and catching my errors when they come up. Enjoy the weekend!

All best,

Andrew

Eric said...

If JR Smith leaves (considering that we're saddled with a playoff aka non-lottery draft pick), it's going to be an even longer year than this past one.

Having a weak pick, an over-the-cap salary and unmovable contracts, we have very little wiggle room for the coming season. The one thing MGT needs to do to placate fans is make sure we get JR back in a Nuggets jersey.

grantarchy said...

Smith really grew on me too. At the beginning of the year I was really down on him, but by the end he had me wondering if he's, potentially, the Nugs best player. I'll be pretty bummed if we lose him because he was one of the few Nuglies that really seemed to bring passion to his play.

DeAngelo Starnes said...

Re-sign JR Smith or get a comparable player. He's more important to building a winner than either Iverson or Kenyon because he's younger and has suffered no significant injuries. He and Kleiza could do damage.

And you're right. He's the only Nugget who consistently brought his "A" game against the Lakers. Hell, he should've been our go-to guy in that series.

ninja_dawg said...

12 months ago I would have thought you were crazy to suggest the Nuggets future reside with the turnover-prone, no defense/no shot selection JR Smith, but the 2007/08 season proved that young stars with potential can develop quickly. He still doesn't play good D, and at times his shot selection is questionable, but he's also the guy who goes up for a crazy jumper and you're yelling "NO NO NO" and then he sinks it and you find yourself shouting "YES YES YES!".

On a team that lacked genuine enthusiasm in the playoffs, JR and Kleiza were the only performances worth the price of admission for Nugs fans.

Anonymous said...

TRADE MELO- KEEP KARL- FEATURE JR!

markp said...

JR, I love him -I don't love him - I love him - I loath him - I love him - I hate him I,I..I.....hope he grows up and his common sense catches up with his sometimes misplaced confidence. I really hope he stays.

Murl said...

Andrew, great article. I think you hit the nail on the head about JR Smith. He is an amazing talent that needs some guidence. On one hand, he was the #1 reason the Nuggets were in Game 4 with the Lakers. On the other hand, he has issues with trash talking and character off the court. Let's keep him here at least until we have a REAL Coach and an ACTUAL GM.
Maybe Kroenke will wake up and smell the coffee sometime in the forseable future.