Betting on an ABA reunion game...

by Andrew Feinstein on Mar 21, 2008 12:04 PM MDT

I've noticed the tone of my recent posts - and the comments that follow - have been overwhelmingly negative as of late. This is certainly justifiable as a once hopeful NBA season for Nuggets fans has turned into debacle reminiscent of the 2001-02 Milwaukee Bucks - another supremely talented team that had to deal with a few nagging injuries to key players, featured a combustible, overpaid power forward, had questionable chemistry issues and subsequently missed the playoffs by one game. Oh, and that team was coached by none other than George Karl.

Depending on how the Nuggets season ultimately pans out, I'll write more about the comparison between this Nuggets team and that Bucks team. But given that this is "Good Friday," I thought I'd write something positive for once - and thus will talk about me gambling (infrequently, I swear!) on the Nuggets.

I'm off to Las Vegas today to throw away my nominal cartooning income on NCAA tournament games. But since the Nuggets are playing at New Jersey tonight and are only 4.5 point favorites, I'll be wagering (just a little) on the Nuggets to win and cover the spread.

I know the third rail of sports fandom is to never bet against your own team, but I don't know the code as applied to betting on your own team. I think that's ok, right? Moreover, I've actually done quite well (relatively speaking, I don't gamble much) on the Nuggets this season. The last time I was in Vegas and had an opportunity to bet on the Nuggets was in November, when the Nuggets had back-to-back games at Washington and Indiana.

Regarding the Washington game, the Nuggets had just come off supremely embarrassing back-to-back losses at New York (the most shameful and inexcusable loss of the season) and at Boston (who beat Denver by 26), so I figured the Washington game, whatever the spread was at the time, was a lock for Denver. The outcome? The Nuggets creamed the Wizards by 26, and rested their starters for the entire fourth quarter.

Given the easy win and the rest against the Wizards, I bet on the Nuggets to beat the Pacers in Indiana the following night. For those who don't remember that game, the Pacers were up 74-56 at halftime! But Coach Karl actually coached for once. By all accounts, Karl gave the team an expletive-filled tirade at halftime and the Nuggets came back ferociously to win the game, and cover the spread. Coach Karl and the Nuggets showed a lot of heart in that game, and have left us befuddled as to why this hasn't happened more often ever since.

So back to tonight's game/bet. With the Nuggets being totally humiliated by the Pistons and Sixers this week, I'm thinking Denver will take care of the Nets and cover the spread while doing so. And if the Nuggets lose their third straight game, feel free to blame me for jinxing the team!

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Comments

I wouldnt take the risk if i were you, this team is far too unpredictable. If they don't show up against detroit and philly while their season is on the line i don't see why they would do better against NJ. And NJ can be dangerous at times, just look when they beat utah the other day. I myself bet often and the nuggets are clearly on my blacklist since a long time ago...

by Iverson Warrior on Mar 21, 2008 2:08 PM MDT reply actions

You probably want to consider betting/gambling. No, I am not preaching you a sermon from the pulpit, here is a simple enough analysis for it.

Either you are trying to enhance your income by playing the probability of an event happening of which you think you are familiar with. But those who pay for the odds, always make money in the bargain, there by ensuring that there is a net loss for those who actually play. Now if you have "covered your spread" a few times you will still see that your net income over a period of time, is bound to be negative, given the first statement. So you never enhance your income by betting/gambling. Unless ofcourse you bet on powerball, won it and walked away.

If you are betting to feel the thrill of money being acquired depending on the outcome of a game, you are perfect target for some amateur psycho analysis. It is time you looked at things that give you a high. That kind of euphoria is as dangerous as fire to play with.

Now, betting on denver to win at NJ? thats outright schizophrenic. Pacers were as dysfunctional as denver, so may be a few expletives might have worked. Karl could write a whole new dictionary of such words, and they aint going to make any comebacks tonight.

You may be better off spending that money seeing some shows that you may remember for some time. Or atleast go play some slots. that way you wont loose it so fast.

by Anonymous on Mar 21, 2008 3:23 PM MDT reply actions

Smart bet.

The Nets were perfect prey for the Nuggets - a disorganized team.

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I'm generally not in agreement with the whole fire Karl concept. I think that given their personnel - with Nene and Atkins out - the Nuggets are a 48 win team, which is just about where they'll end up.

But I'm never clear why Karl can't find more tick for Kleiza and J.R. When those guys aren't in the game, the Nuggets can't find a way to make teams pay for doubling AI and 'Melo.

Well, tonight, Karl put Kleiza and J.R. in after the Nets made their run in the third, and they tore open the game.

For all the talk about the problems with Denver's defense, it's really the offense that's the problem when Camby, K-Mart, and Carter are on the court together. Any team in the world is going to double AI and 'Melo, and the Nuggets have no way to make teams pay with that lineup.

by Petey on Mar 22, 2008 5:20 AM MDT reply actions

Looks like denver played with more intensity, if only they played like that more often they would be right in the playoff race, thats what is really sad with this team...

by Iverson Warrior on Mar 22, 2008 4:10 PM MDT reply actions

Nuggets played with more intensity when they play inferior teams they can bully. That's why they're bullies and will shy away when opponents their size or bigger show up.

by Anonymous on Mar 22, 2008 4:23 PM MDT reply actions

petey is absolutely right.

I'm sick of people calling it the defense. We certainly have lapses but we play at a pace that increases the amount of possessions per game. More possessions means more points all around.

Someone was saying the other day that no team in the NBA works harder for their shots than Denver.

It's impossible to fault Anthony Carter given how much he's given us (he finishes as well as any guard in the NBA) but he's not good enough shooter or dangerous enough off the dribble to give AI or Melo the space.

Camby is a great passer at the top of the circle but he's worthless otherwise (the missed layups slay me).

Martin's playing the best ball on the team right now, but he needs the help as much as AI and Melo.

Amazingly, this has warped into a really good three point shooting team. J.R. is lights out, Kleiza is maddeningly inconsistent but more than makes up for it by getting to the rim off the pass, Atkins, Najera and Diawara are all solid.

Those players need to be out on the court.

by Nadum on Mar 23, 2008 10:35 AM MDT reply actions

I'm also against firing Karl, but the way he's handled JR, Atkins and Diawara has been terrible.

AI and Diawara should be our starting backcourt with Carter coming into spell Diawara and taking over point. Diawara was very respectable from beyond the arc and if Karl and his staff can make Najera a three point threat, I'm convinced they could get Diawara up closer to 40%.

Atkins played great for a couple games, proved his worth and now he's hidden on the bench.

JR's playing time has been so sporadic all year it boggles the mind.

by Nadum on Mar 23, 2008 10:38 AM MDT reply actions

I don't agree with the above posters jock riding of Diawara is little more than 12th man material, but I do find it funny that he criticizes several HUGE mistakes of Karls but at the same time claims to be against canning him. That, my friend, is mind boggling.

by Anonymous on Mar 23, 2008 9:40 PM MDT reply actions

"I'm also against firing Karl, but the way he's handled JR, Atkins and Diawara has been terrible."

Yup.

"AI and Diawara should be our starting backcourt with Carter coming into spell Diawara and taking over point. Diawara was very respectable from beyond the arc and if Karl and his staff can make Najera a three point threat, I'm convinced they could get Diawara up closer to 40%."

I don't know if Diawarra could take that much responsibility, but your basic point here is correct.

Diawarra should at least be kept in the rotation. There might be a playoff series against a team like the Lakers, where having someone like Diawarra to guard a big '2' guard would come in handy.

by Petey on Mar 24, 2008 12:20 PM MDT reply actions

Comments For This Post Are Closed

STIFF LIST (as of 4/26 by Andrew Feinstein)

1. METTA WORLD PEACE

Metta resorted back to Ron Ron last Sunday by clubbing James Hardenwith an "inadvertent celebratory elbow", landing him a 7-game suspension. Apparently, changing his name didn't prevent NBA commissioner David Stern from overlooking Metta's past behavior problems.

2. CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

The 'Cats are on the verge of securing the worst winning percentage in NBA history. Given that the guy who runs the team - Michael Jordan - had previously drafted Kwame Brown and Adam Morrison, should this really be a shock?

3. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
The team that was supposedly built to overcome the lockout-shortened season managed to lose 7 of its last 14 games, ceding the Western Conference's 1-seed to the Spurs in the process. Their reward might be a first round matchup with defending champion Dallas.

4. BILLY HUNTER AND DEREK FISHER

With report after report coming out about NBPA union head Hunter's shady, nepotistic dealings and questions arising about Fisher's own role in dealing with NBA owners behind Hunter's back during the lockout, this off-the-court scandal could prove to be more exciting than the playoffs themselves!

5. STEVE NASH AND THE PHOENIX SUNS
The Suns are on this list for squandering the last few great seasons from Nash. Nash is on this list for his stupidly stubborn loyalty to a franchise as awful as the Suns.